is it really possible that Donald trump could be president????? [Part 3]

[Lweji]

Continuing the thread, and in reply to the two last posts of thread 2

Today 08:15 OhYouBadBadKitten

I don't think it is about Trump taking risks, its more that he is a narcisstic sociopath. He feels untouchable in what he says and has no regard for the consequences.

Today 06:53 fourmummy

To be fair, voters know that all political rhetoric mostly comes to nothing (rhetoric = argumentation and persuasion, elevated to an art from in Ancient Greece). Why do you imagine Labour want to introduce votes for 16 year olds? They know that people don't become "more conservative" as they get older-they become wiser to the political process and its lies rhetoric. So what's different with Trump? Why hasn't his unbelievably unlikeable public and private persona sunk him?

Answer=risk

He is not a ready-rolled, ready-prepped and ready-to-go politician (think Blair's son parachuted into a constituency; MIliband brothers, Clintons). These are not risking much because they were cast in the role when they were made. We know that this is the case with, certainly, Clinton (numerous interviews with aides attest to this; ditto for the others). Voters are doing a risk assessment of his risks and have decided that he is worth something. It's not as simple as suggesting that if someone votes for him then they must be racist or sexist, as I've seen journos assert. Voters are effectively doing a risk assessment and deciding that given the enormous costs both to him (energy, health, time away from family, reputation, financial, career, historical implications, ) and to his voters (risk of being viewed as sexist, racist, intolerant, asshole), the benefits must outweigh these costs. Very unwise to dismiss ordinary voters as simplistically sexist and racists, as many, many journalists have (shortsightedly) done. Even non-experts are very good at performing cost/benefit analyses

As I said I don't see anything of what he says as taking a risk. Because he is saying what many people want to hear.
As for personal cost, he is clearly someone who enjoys the power, the limelight, the adoration. All that is missing for him is the ultimate power, particularly as he sees other true billionaires taking central stage.
But he doesn't have the heart to be Gates.
So, he's going for the highest office, and on the back of American voters most primal fears.

But...
He's not averse to risk. He's built his empire on it. He's had four bankruptcies. Anyone should be worried about the way he manages risk.

This might make you chuckle, claig:
A CNN analyst has a meltdown "I refuse to adapt to the absurdity of a world where Trump beats Kasich"

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/04/26/vanjonessirefuseetoadaptttotheeabsurdityoffaworlddwheretrumppbeatskasich.html

Yes, that is amusing.
He can't comprehend why Trump beats Kasich. Nor can world "leaders" and Blair.
But that means he can't comprehend the people.
But that is why we hold elections - to let the people decide.

I thought of you last night while watching Newsnight Claig.. There was a clip of Donald Trump giving a speech where he says something along the lines of "we must protect the nation state." I thought, well I'll be damned, this is exactly what Claig said he was thinking a couple of months ago.

Yes, Lookingagain, that is really what it is all about - globalism and an eventual one world government which works for the interests of an elite, versus national sovereignty and the nation state that works for the interests of the people.

One of Trump's advisers wrote an article saying that it was all about saving the nation state.

It is amazing and totally unforeseen that someone could appear in America on the side of the nation state and he is likely to win. That is why all of the world "leaders" are so spooked, because they have all been working towards globalisation and EU type pooling of sovereignty which strips power from ordinary people in nation states and hands it over to an unaccountable layer of bureaucrats and officials above the level of nation states.

The fantastic news is that all of this is now coming to an end because of what is happening in America. Trump is totally fearless, we have never seen a "politician" like him and he will end it worldwide and liberate people worldwide by returning democracy to the local level of the nation state. That is why all the world "leaders" are so scared because it is all over for the lot of them.

"Commentary: Yes, Donald Trump can beat Hillary Clinton
...
His general election strategy, such as it is, seems to be predicated on two strategies: pivot left as far as possible and launch a scorched earth campaign against Clinton.
...
What happens when Trump, after Hillary inevitably accuses him of sexism, says that Bill is a rapist, a serial assaulter of women, and that she is his enabler? What happens when he incorporates this into his stump speech? The upside, if you can call it that, to Trump's refusal to act "presidential" is that he is the only candidate who will go that far. Trump, and Trump alone, is the only candidate who would not only resurrect all the Clinton sex scandals, but make them a centerpiece of his campaign.
...
And that's just the sex stuff. The Clintons are no strangers to scandals financial and otherwise, and while bringing up all that baggage, in some cases discredited, would seem too-low for a normal candidate, Trump will almost certainly embrace all of it."

www.cbsnews.com/news/yes-trump-can-beat-hillary-clinton/

Trump is totally fearless and has amazing confidence. No one can tell him what to do or say.

I watched the foreign policy speech and based on that speech I am actually tempted to vote for trump. His policy makes a lot of sense in that he isn't war mongering. Hilary was nothing but a disaster when let loose in the middle east.

Putin might be awful but he is the leader of Russia and with the issues america faces it makes sense to go to the table to see if Russia and America can work together. Nothing is lost by trying.

The only thing that I am concerned about is that Trump had Carl Ichan next to him at a rally. That man is exactly what is wrong with America. You should not be allowed to buy a company and load it with debt like he did with TWA. That isn't capitalism. If Trump wants the presidency he needs to give a strong speech which details exactly how he is going to bring back jobs. Quite frankly we have a skills gap now that some jobs have been outsourced for over a decade.

I would also like to know exactly what is going to be done about food prices. Here in the NY area fresh fruit and veg at supermarkets is very expensive. You walk away from NAFTA and we have a potential problem. It's bad enough that 5 apples cost $8 the other day.

Five apples for eight bucks! Whoa! I am surprised families can afford to eat.

Putin might be awful but he is the leader of Russia and with the issues america faces it makes sense to go to the table to see if Russia and America can work together. Nothing is lost by trying.
What makes you think that nothing has been tried so far?

Russia and America have been working together to a point, in fighting ISIS.
America has largely but out of the Ukraine.
Western European countries have had Russian fighter planes entering or suspiciously bordering their airspace.
The US, Europe and Russia share spacecraft and the Space Station.

Whatever Trump is saying is pure demagogy. There's no evidence that he could get on with Putin anyway better than the current administration. He's already put forward Russia as the enemy in his campaing, exactly accusing Hillary of not being strong enough against it.
More worrying, I don't think there is any benefit in "getting on" with Russia considering what seem to be Putin's objectives in foreign policy. (including his military support for the Syrian president and civil war in the Ukraine)

Trump speeches are very far from his actions or any reality.

Trump could possibly change the entire world. America has no real military challengers apart from Russia. If Trump pulls off a change in policy where America and Russia work together as allies, then together they will dominate the world and will both call the tune. There will be world peace between big power blocs because no one can challenge the two of them. I think that is what Trump is possibly looking to achieve.

That will allow both America and Russia to work together on business and investment and allow them both to spend less on military and more on economic development.

Trump is not sure it will work out and it will require that Russia trusts America because Trump is pretty anti Iran and Iran is an ally of Russia. Also Russia would have to distance itself from China since Trump will be pretty hardball on trade with China. But we could well see an overthrow of the Ayatollahs in Iran and everybody working on the same page.

Trump is anti Isis and anti arming of the Jihadis who fought Assad, and he sees what Russia did in Syria as OK.

Trump is not a warmonger, as Want2be said, and he could achieve world peace.

It is bad news for the bankers and warmongers because Trump looks like he will change the entire geoplitical landscape and bring Russia in as an ally.

Of course, there will be all sorts of plots from the forces that oppose Trump to try and stop him, but Trump looks like he has the confidence and courage to pull off something quite remarkable.

lookingagain The price of food is a huge issue IMO. It's cheaper to feed your kids from the dollar menu in McDonald's than it is to buy fresh fruit and veg.

We shop at the local supermarket and just buy fruit and veg there. I am now spending $70-100 a week buying the basic fruits (apples, bananas, carrots etc). Much of my veg is frozen.

Want2b, Trump intends to cut taxes and lower the cost of medical cover so people will have more money in their pockets.

If Trump ends free trade, wouldn't the prices of fresh veg and fruit go up?

Or is that a local big city problem, as most agricultural produce have to travel far?

How will Trump lower the cost of medical cover? Particularly if he cuts taxes?

'How will Trump lower the cost of medical cover? '

Competition, getting rid of "the lines". Better deal making with Big Pharma over prices of drugs etc. He will ensure that they charge 10% lower than the lowest price worldwide.

Trump won't end free trade, but it be fair trade in the intersts of the US, i.e. other countries will take a hit.

Also, I expect the dollar wil rise as America becomes number one again under Trump and as hot money flows to the US out of Panama and all other offshore centres. Trump will fix the deficit problem and make the world have faith in the dollar again and Russia and China will have to help America out to achieve that.

He will ensure that they charge 10% lower than the lowest price worldwide.

How?
What's his leverage?

How will competition work between insurance companies, if medical assistance is still expensive?
I presume health insurance is more expensive in NY, for example, because medical facilities also charge more. Buying elsewhere may not save costs if, rightly, insurance companies start going for location of the insured person rather than location of the insurer.

It's all very well saying this and that will be done, but without any explanation of how it's done, then it's just words.

'President Trump fills world leaders with fear: 'It's gone from funny to really scary''

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/apr/28/donald-trump-president-world-leaders-foreign-relations

The whole world will respect Trump and America. Everyone will play ball. All of Europe will have to do as they are told. It is all over for the world "leaders". As Trump says, no one respects Obama, but they will all fear and respect Trump.

Anyone could write:

Also, I expect the dollar will rise as America becomes number one again under Clinton and as hot money flows to the US out of Panama and all other offshore centres. Clinton will fix the deficit problem and make the world have faith in the dollar again and Russia and China will have to help America out to achieve that.

It means nothing. It's just wishful thinking.

Particular that part about "Russia and China will have to help America".
I can see that happening. Sure.

'How?
What's his leverage? '

The leverage is America. You want to do business in America, you do what Trump says.

Most fruit and veg grown in the US comes from Florida and California. California is 3000 miles away from NY.... ie the same distance as NY to the UK.

Part of it is a big city issue but when we lived in the burbs the issue was still there in that it was about $5-6 for 5 apples. In the UK £3.5 gets you more than 5 apples!

You want to do business in America, you do what Trump says.

That sounds like a dangerous dictatorship.

'That sounds like a dangerous dictatorship.'

No, it is just realpolitik. Trump said Mexico will pay for the wall and the Mexican ex world "leader" said "we're not going to pay for that fucking wall".

I put my money on Trump. Mexico will pay up quickly.

I'm curious.
How will the US government force the Mexican government to pay for something to keep their own citizens in?

Would Trump call the Mexican president names until he coughed up?
Or maybe Trump will dump US own rapists and drug dealers on the Mexican border?

'Particular that part about "Russia and China will have to help America".
I can see that happening.'

Trump is about business and growth. The world "leaders" plan of climate change deals and low growth and shutting down coal and steel etc is all over. Russia and China don't want war, they want to do business and so does Trump. There will be mutual deals set up by Trump where everyone will win except for the globalists and the warmongers. The world economy will grow and business will boom.

Again, wishful thinking.