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is it really possible that Donald trump could be president????? [Part 3]

999 replies

Lweji · 25/03/2016 08:45

Continuing the thread, and in reply to the two last posts of thread 2

Today 08:15 OhYouBadBadKitten

I don't think it is about Trump taking risks, its more that he is a narcisstic sociopath. He feels untouchable in what he says and has no regard for the consequences.

Today 06:53 fourmummy

To be fair, voters know that all political rhetoric mostly comes to nothing (rhetoric = argumentation and persuasion, elevated to an art from in Ancient Greece). Why do you imagine Labour want to introduce votes for 16 year olds? They know that people don't become "more conservative" as they get older-they become wiser to the political process and its lies rhetoric. So what's different with Trump? Why hasn't his unbelievably unlikeable public and private persona sunk him?

Answer=risk

He is not a ready-rolled, ready-prepped and ready-to-go politician (think Blair's son parachuted into a constituency; MIliband brothers, Clintons). These are not risking much because they were cast in the role when they were made. We know that this is the case with, certainly, Clinton (numerous interviews with aides attest to this; ditto for the others). Voters are doing a risk assessment of his risks and have decided that he is worth something. It's not as simple as suggesting that if someone votes for him then they must be racist or sexist, as I've seen journos assert. Voters are effectively doing a risk assessment and deciding that given the enormous costs both to him (energy, health, time away from family, reputation, financial, career, historical implications, ) and to his voters (risk of being viewed as sexist, racist, intolerant, asshole), the benefits must outweigh these costs. Very unwise to dismiss ordinary voters as simplistically sexist and racists, as many, many journalists have (shortsightedly) done. Even non-experts are very good at performing cost/benefit analyses

As I said I don't see anything of what he says as taking a risk. Because he is saying what many people want to hear.
As for personal cost, he is clearly someone who enjoys the power, the limelight, the adoration. All that is missing for him is the ultimate power, particularly as he sees other true billionaires taking central stage.
But he doesn't have the heart to be Gates.
So, he's going for the highest office, and on the back of American voters most primal fears.

But...
He's not averse to risk. He's built his empire on it. He's had four bankruptcies. Anyone should be worried about the way he manages risk.

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claig · 26/04/2016 13:55

"Poll: Trump Reaches 50 Percent Support Nationally for the First Time"

www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/poll-trump-reaches-50-percent-support-nationally-first-time-n562061

Lweji · 26/04/2016 13:57

Among registered Republicans.

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claig · 26/04/2016 13:59

and Republican leaners

Lweji · 26/04/2016 14:08

The survey had 90% registered and 10% leaners, roughly.
I'm not surprised. Cruz is very conservative and many Republicans will be understandably weary of him.

If he does get elected, though, is another question. It's possible, but I'd worry about a society that elects him.
And the party that nominates him.

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claig · 26/04/2016 14:11

It looks like Trump is starting to have enough of brought in professional adviser, Manafort, and is swinging back to Lewandowski. Unfortunately, Roger Stone, a mate of Manafort's, is starting to tweet negative things about Lewandowski.

Fox News Sunday had Manafort on instead of Trump WTAF!

Trump fans had to sit through a politically correct Manafort interview on Fox News Sunday instead of seeing Trump give 'em hell in his usual style.

Lewandowski had the right strategy, beloved by Trump fans, i.e. "Let Trump be Trump".

They are trying to rein Trump in and tame him down. WTAF!

"Trump called John Kasich a “slob” after calling attention to his penchant for eating too much on the campaign trail and blasted him and Cruz, whom he called “an ass,” for “colluding” to stop him — every broadside delivered in his trademark vernacular and an implicit rebuke to those handlers looking to rein him in.

“That's Trump. If you try to force him into a box, he's going to climb out of the box just to prove it to you,” said one operative close to the campaign. “If you say he's going to be more presidential, all you did is make him less presidential.”

www.politico.com/story/2016/04/donald-trump-paul-manafort-corey-lewandowski-222430

The real Trump is back! Hallelujah!

If Manafort doesn't butt out and stop trying to make Trump "more presidential", then as the Stump for Trump sisters would say in their inimitable style

"Trump should fire his ass! Don't get it twisted!"

claig · 26/04/2016 14:21

Trump on top comic form explaining to the Trump fans why Kasich, the Establishment's politically correct choice, is not "presidential"

BigChocFrenzy · 27/04/2016 06:18

Turning nasty - An ANTI-Trump supporter pepper-sprayed Trump supporters, including 2 girls aged 8 and 11:
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/apr/26/trump-protest-clash-pepper-spray-girls-anaheim-demonstration
Yes of course that'll convince the parents not to vote for him Hmm
Worrying to think of how feelings will have escalated by November - more than theoretically scary for any US posters of course

var123 · 27/04/2016 07:07

I find this is a good cheat guide to understanding the US primaries.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/

and

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/can-you-get-trump-to-1237/

However, you all seem better informed than me, so I may be the only one who needs this!

Lweji · 27/04/2016 07:40

That is worrying. Sad
Although it's not surprising that Trump attracts violence. On both sides. He's been egging it on for months.

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claig · 27/04/2016 17:43

Trump foreign policy speech live now - on Fox and other channels.

Blair, the Blairites, world "leaders", Davos etc all huddled round TV sets in trepidation.

Speech slightly stilted because Trump is reading off a teleprompter. Not the usual Trump brilliance, but it is the content that the world "leaders" are desperate to hear.

Trump says US foreign policy has been a "disaster", no "purpose". Blair "anxious".

claig · 27/04/2016 17:58

Trump throws a classic joke in but gets no appaluse as the suits don't get it like the Trump fans at rallies do

"Our military is depleted and we are asking our generals to worry about ... global warming"

A Trump rally would have erupted in laughter, not a peek from the suits at the speech. Blair "anxious".

claig · 27/04/2016 18:16

Wow

"We will no longer surrender this country or its people to the false song of globalism. The nation state remains the true foundation for happiness and harmony. I am sceptical of international unions that tie is up and bring America down ... and under my adminstration we will never enter America into any agreement that reduces our ability to control our own affairs."

That's it, the world "leaders" are fainting. In the halls of Oxbridge, the metropolitan elite's haunts, bank HQs, palaces where bureaucrats hang out at public expense, EU capitals, Brussels, Davos etc, there are cries of panic and world "leaders" are running round like headless chickens screaming "it's over, it's all over and our global warming game is up".

World "leaders" shellshocked and getting ready to follow Trump, people laughing and voting Trump.

BigChocFrenzy · 27/04/2016 18:59

Oh, I blinked: I read your post as "world leaders are farting" but it was "fainting" Smile
Maybe that too !

claig · 27/04/2016 19:08

Undoubtedly that too! They have severe indigestion after listening to Trump lay down the new rules the "leaders" will have to follow.

claig · 27/04/2016 19:23

Latest info from Roger Stone, Trump's pal. He says in 1 hr 40 minutes time, Ted Cruz will announce that Carly Fiorina will be his VP. We will have to see if he is right.

We are getting close to the end now. The globalists and Cruz, the Establishment's last hope, are throwing the dice in desperation. Trump is in the lead on the home straight, he has jumped the fence and is making a break for the winning line. World "leaders" are praying he stumbles and Blair, as ever, is "anxious".

BigChocFrenzy · 27/04/2016 20:45

Interesting from 5-38:
fivethirtyeight.com/features/ted-cruz-may-be-too-conservative-to-stop-trump/

They analysed Cruz's support over the primaries and found he only gets votes from the far right of the party (and with the GOP, that means the totally batshit god-botherers)
He trails way behind Kasich in the "left" and "moderate" Republicans.

So, I doubt the convention would choose him; so few delegates and not worth the hassle of ditching Trump just to get someone probably more extreme in practice.
imo, Trump is clear fav, with Kasich a weak 2nd possibility

I wonder how those comparatively moderate Republican voters will split in November wrt these options:
Holding their nose & voting Trump / not voting for him but voting GOP for senate etc / voting Clinton to stop him / just staying home.
2016 looks a VERY bad year for the GOP.

Lweji · 27/04/2016 20:57

2016 looks a VERY bad year for the GOP.
Including if Trump happened to win the election.
Or Cruz either nominated or winning.
I don't think there's a good outcome for the Republicans this year.

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claig · 27/04/2016 21:16

The Republican Establishment dislike Cruz due to his personality. He seems to run people up the wrong way. There was an interesting article about his rise. He is just another globalist etc, worked under Bush his wife is Goldman Sachs etc, but they don't like him and the article suggested it is because he was too pushy and ambitious, always wanting to take credit and get acknowledgement. Seems relatively harmless among these politico types, but apparenntly the higher ups among them didn't like him.

Also if you watch some of his interviews on Fox, the mask does slip occasionally and it is a bit weird. An interviewer who is favourable to him, but who prefers Trump, will ask him a question and he will say "can I answer without being interrupted" and he keeps that up about 4 times in a row in a hostile way when it was not necessary at all. Weird and spooky.

So the talk is that they want Cruz to help them stop Trump, so that they can ditch Trump at the convention and then ditch Cruz and put another globalist in whose personality they prefer.

They have to stop Trump because he is not a globalist and will unravel all that the puppets have worked for for their globalist masters.

Kasich is fine for them. He is a globalist, he supported Obamacare, not anti immigration and he supported NAFTA and TPP etc - ideal for the globalists.

'I wonder how those comparatively moderate Republican voters will split in November'

They will vote Trump, the ordinary voters that is. Some of the Republican Establishment billionaires, like one of the Koch brothers, has said he may consider Hillary. The top Establishment are anti Trump because he knows their globalist game and will stop it dead and pursue as he said today - America First - and being globalists they are against that.

'2016 looks a VERY bad year for the GOP.'

It is going to be a landslide. Trump will thrash Hillary, if she is still in it and is not indicted.

However, there are all sorts of theories on alternative media about what the globalists, Soros, the billionaires may try to stop Trump. The left wing agitators, the Trump pinatas, Move On, Black Lives Matter, the Beyonce videos etc may be used to create a climate of violence in an attempt to try to stop Trump.

The globalists are desperate, America First is on its way and they don't like it.

BigChocFrenzy · 27/04/2016 21:46

In November, it will be Traumatised Trump and Happy Hillary - Democrats will be better at holding their noses & voting the ticket.
Maybe those who bother to vote for anyone will be an all-time low %
A really poor year all round for progressive politics.

BigChocFrenzy · 27/04/2016 21:47

I don't think anyone would dare indict her now - Trump is her best defense

BigChocFrenzy · 27/04/2016 21:50

The 5-38 analysis ties in with the poll you quoted, about Trump exceeding 50% of Republicans

claig · 27/04/2016 22:01

Trump won every single county in all 5 states last night. It was an extraordinary win. 90% of women did not vote for Cruz in Rhode Island. Cruz only got about 15% average in the five states. The media is anti Trump and is not accurately reporting his potential support and Cruz's lack of support.

Short of some really devious tricks by the Establishment against Trump, Trump will make it and then he will obliterate Hillary because as Roger Stone said today, everything about Trump is already public knowledge, but the media protects Bill and Hillary and turns off the microphone if a guest says something too much about them, but the media will not be able to turn Trump's microphone off.

BigChocFrenzy · 27/04/2016 22:33

It was indeed a very successful night for Trump.
Now, barring a truly horrendous gaffe (and the mind boggles how he could exceed his previous performances) he should be the nominee of a very rightwing Republican Party.

In November, he has to face an electorate, 65% of whom view him unfavourably. Very different.
I suspect all the skeletons are firmly tied down in Hillary's closet in her full warehouse so they won't rattle !

Lweji · 27/04/2016 22:44

National polls show a bigger gap to Clinton than a couple of months ago.

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