is it really possible that Donald trump could be president????? [Part 2]

[claig]

From now on the race becomes winner take all. If Trump wins Florida on March 15, it is probably all over.

'The Republican Party now has 14 days to stop Trump'

www.vox.com/2016/3/2/11144812/super-tuesday-results-donald-trump-wins

It also comes down to taxes. If you write off a loan it's fully deductible. If you make a donation it isn't. The limit is only $50k. That's why a lot of foundations and charities here in the US have a complex loan set up.

That's very interesting about the taxes, supermum

A question about the "Donate" buttons on Trump's site: Isn't there quite a low limit on individual donations ? (hence why there are so many PACs)
I thought such buttons were mainly useful for politicians like Obama and The Bern, who have a huge number of individual donors, but mainly those who can only afford small donations.

SenecaFalls, what is it like in Florida at the moment?

Reports coming out of there that you can't turn the TV on without being hit by anti Trump ads. SuperPACS are coming out of the woodwork to hit Trump, money is being thrown around like it is confetti. Reports are that nothing like it has been seen before.

Reports are Trump is preparing to fight back and has hired ad slots to hit them back.

Internal polling already reporting that Trump's poll lead has been affected by the negative ads. He is still in the lead but his 20 point lead has been cut.

If they don't stop him in Florida, they are almost done.

"Polls show Donald Trump leading everywhere during a critical 2-week stretch"

uk.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-polls-leads-florida-michigan-ohio-2016-3?r=US&IR=T

This is a total popular revolution. How great a thing democracy is - they can't stop the people.

"Voter turnout shows Trump, not Sanders, leading a revolution"

edition.cnn.com/2016/03/02/politics/election-2016-turnout-records/index.html?eref=rss_politics

Want2b - Many of my American friends want Sanders to win but they also say that he can't. What do you think?

Sanders can't win against the Clinton machine. If he won the nomination I think he stands a good chance of winning the election because the Republicans don't have a good candidate. The Clintons out $ him and have been able to buy votes. It is incredibly sad and it is one of the reasons why I really do not want to vote for her. She is a filthy politician and not of the right moral fiber to lead the US. Iowa was eye opening with Sanders losing by one vote quite a few times. It was too convenient that the numbers were that close.

I actually think she would be far more dangerous in power than Trump because Trump doesn't know how to bypass systems. That is why when people say 'Oh Trump is going to be able to press the trigger for nuclear weapons', well actually the process here doesn't work that way. Why do you think Clinton used private servers?!?! She was bypassing the system for a reason. What that reason is we don't know yet. That is why it is so very serious. I have used federal government information systems and they are not bad. There was zero need for anything classified or otherwise to go on a private server.

'It was too convenient that the numbers were that close.'

In some of the Iowa caucus precincts, the delegates had to be decided by a throw of the dice. Hillary won all 6 throws of the dice.

The person who set up the private server for her has just been given immunity from prosecution which possibly means that they are intending to take some form of prosecution.

We just had a typical BBC Newsnight hit-piece on Trump with all interviewees (as usual for the BBC) being anti Trump and the usual anti Trump slant to the reporting. They know how enormous what is happening is and they are like King Canute hoping it won't happen.

As Robert Reich says

"The establishment is dying

The rise of figures like Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump isn't the cause; it's the symptom"
...
Something very big has happened, and it’s not due to Bernie Sanders’ magnetism or Donald Trump’s likeability.

It’s a rebellion against the establishment."

www.salon.com/2016/02/24/robert_reich_2016_is_the_beginning_of_the_end_of_the_establishment_partner/

Claig Early voting has begun in Florida and I have seen anti-Trump ads (quite a few) and pro-Hillary ads so far (fewer). I haven't seen any Rubio ads yet, but I may just have missed them.

And, yes, the anti-Trump ads have been from PACs, not individual candidates.

Thanks, Seneca. I think Florida will be the main battlefield now for the next 2 weeks. 99 delegates up for grabs. Rubio knows Florida well and the GOP machine will help him. There were rumours however that the Governor of Florida might end up endorsing Trump. He is not a member of the "political class", he was an outsider, a businessman. However, the Establishment must be twisting his arm hoping he won't come out for Trump.

Trump has got a 20000 rally in Florida tomorrow. Get down there if any tickets are still left!

Not me, Claig. I hate crowds. Besides, I'm a Democrat.

Paul Ryan says he is not interested in running for President. There were rumours that the GOP would either try to put Romney or Ryan in at the Convention if they are able to dump Trump. Now they only have Romney left.

'I hate crowds. Besides, I'm a Democrat'

Right. Well, that rules out a Bernie rally because they are packed, but I don't think anyone turns up for a Hillary event.

I haven't got much to add to this debate. I'm cringing and worrying equally about this whole process.

So, two quick points. My Hispanic, gay personal trainer is a huge supporter of Trump. He has very good reasons for doing so which I find intriguing.

I've met HC many times and honestly believe she does have the right moral fiber to be President.

' My Hispanic, gay personal trainer is a huge supporter of Trump. He has very good reasons for doing so which I find intriguing. '

What are his reasons?

What part of the country are you in, Chips?

cotedazur Sanders can't win the nomination because he has a colour problem - he can't win in states where a significant number of primary voters are black - and this is the case in many southern states. These voters vote overwhelmingly for Clinton. Sanders' support base is too narrow (younger, whiter and more educated than the average democratic primary voter) - and I say this as a natural supporter of Sanders' politics.

We can talk all we want about the Clinton "machine" but she is winning fair and square among the most deprived groups of voters.

Sanders won by one vote in a town close to me - should we presume then he is crooked? Any minute now we'll be back to the "the clintons murder to cover up their crimes" crap we had to listen to back in the 1990s. If I know anything about Clinton is that if she did decide to rig the election, she'd be smart enough not to do it by one vote ffs.

I like Sanders' policies but he will never take the south - he will gain neither black nor white votes. In a Trump versus Sanders election, Trump will win. In a Trump versus Clinton election, there is hope.

Many people where I live (the US Midwest) seem convinced that Trump would easily beat Hilary, but that in a Sanders-Trump contest, Sanders would win.

Just six months ago, when I put a Sanders sign in my front yard, many of my neighbors asked: "Who's that?"

Now he is widely known and every day I am surprised by people telling me that they support him-unexpected people. He will do well in CA, NY, and PA, and that is a ton of Electoral votes right there.

So, as of last night it seems like Trump finally has a proper opponent ... a good night for Cruz, and a distinctly below average one for Trump who seems to have lost a lot of support at the last moment. I wonder if this is the turning point?

Cruz is actually scarier than Trump, so it's reassuring that most national polls suggest that it would be difficult for him to win against either Sanders or Clinton...

Yes, Cruz did better than I expected. Surprised he won Maine where the Governor endorsed Trump. Cruz wins in caucuses where he is better organised than Trump and has a better ground game.

Cruz and Trump want Rubio to leave the race so that they can now go head to head. But it won't happen because Rubio is the Establishment's man and the Establishment hate Cruz. So I think it will still roll on as it is until Florida on March 15. Cruz is now opening 10 offices in Florida; he can't win there but his strategy is to stop Rubio winning so that the Establishment has to accept that he is the only challenger to Trump.

A couple of good clips on the party establishment and Mitt Romney versus Trump.

Former Governor of Arkansas says that "this is now classic Louis XIV and Marie Antionette versus the people" and a blistering rant by Judge Jeanine where she says "there's an insurrection coming"

Maybe because it's becoming reality and people are pooling behind one other candidate instead.
And possibly because there's the danger in many coming elections that the winner takes all

Cruz needs Rubio to stay in until Florida and split the vote - otherwise Trump walks away with the delegates.

Claig Cruz is very much not an establishment candidate - in fact the hole that the Republican Party is now in exists mainly because they failed to put forward a viable mainstream candidate. Almost no mainstream, "establishment" republicans have backed Cruz, because he's far out on the loony right wing of the party, is not personally likeable, and is a Cuban Canadian .

In fact Cruz's victory speech last night was almost Trumpian - he talked about howls of anguish in Washington.

'Cruz needs Rubio to stay in until Florida and split the vote - otherwise Trump walks away with the delegates.'

Not necessarily because I think there are still some proportional elections left. It goes winner takes all from March 15 onwards.

'Cruz is very much not an establishment candidate'

We are told that the Establishment hate him and it is true that none of them like him. Bob Dole, now 92, prefers Trump to Cruz and says that Cruz would be "catastrophic". But in reality Cruz is just another puppet who will easily be controlled by the donor class. He didn't declare a loan he got from Goldman Sachs, his wife worked for Goldman Sachs and she was a member of the Council on Foreign Relations etc I am pretty certain that the Establishment would be able to control Cruz (although he would lose the election to Cruz but the Esatblishment wouldn't care) but they can't control Trump which is why they fear him even more, and some of the top ones already know they may be doing prison time if Trump gets in.

'In fact Cruz's victory speech last night was almost Trumpian - he talked about howls of anguish in Washington.'

Yes, he plays the anti-establishment card (because he knows that the people are in revolutionary mode) and to some extent he is, but the huge crowds for Trump show that the people know that it is really Trump who is the anti establishment candidate who will go to Washington and "kick the doors down" and "break the furniture".

Yesterday the Conservative CPAC group of conservative activists etc made Cruz their favourite in a straw poll at 40%, then Rubio at 30%, then Trump at 15%.

So the active members of the party prefer a real conservative i.e. Cruz, but the top elites in the party prefer a more controllable, Rubio, and the people outside the Washington class of insiders and political activists prefer Trump.

"Ted Cruz wins CPAC straw poll as young attendees dismiss 'liar' Donald Trump

Candidate takes 40% of vote at three-day conservative event, with Marco Rubio at 30% and Trump at 15%"

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/mar/05/ted-cruz-cpac-straw-poll-win-donald-trump-young-voters

These people are like Labour party apparatchiks, they are out of touch with ordinary people, which is why they support hardline doctrinaire conservative Cruz over populist Trump.