is it really possible that Donald trump could be president????? [Part 2]

[claig]

From now on the race becomes winner take all. If Trump wins Florida on March 15, it is probably all over.

'The Republican Party now has 14 days to stop Trump'

www.vox.com/2016/3/2/11144812/super-tuesday-results-donald-trump-wins

which point?

fourmummy This is what is so very clever about Trumps campaign. He is talking, often indirectly, about what people fear which is something politicians don't tend to do.

People here in the U.S. fear two things, losing their job and losing their life in a terrorist attack (our life insurance doesn't pay out of terrorist attack and was told this is standard). That is what his rhetoric has been focused on.

Job wise, so many people have not recovered from the last downturn. I look at my close circle of friends plus acquaintances and more than 50% earn less today than they did in 2007. Here in the Ny area its expensive and the cost of living keeps going up yet wages in real terms continue to fall. Trump is the only politician who has talked about this. His plans are not to everyone's taste but the reality is bringing in people on H1B visas to do the job an American can do is slowly killing the middle class.

Also many Americans are against war and want to get as far away from military action in the middle east as possible. Trump has been one of the few politicians who is anti-war. He has said before that America has an awful track record and best to leave it to the Russians to sort out. Many Americans really like that solution.

His points in relation to Brexit in today's DM article (can't link as on phone) are spot on, my point above being that you don't have like the man to listen to him because right now, he's the only one saying anything at all about people's primary concerns - but then, it was predicted that this would happen given that there's a (frequently highlighted) void when it comes to addressing the number 1 issue of the human race, which is expected to be addressed by their governments in exchange for their prestigious and priveledged positions - safety and survival (Diamond, 2005).

Apologies for typos..phone didn't let me make changes and then posted anyway. Will avoid phone from now on (smile)

Sanders is also saying a lot of what Trump is saying. Far better candidate IMO.

But he's practically ignored by the media (here). Whatever happens, Trump is trailblazing because the first rule of politics is to address people's concerns. I find the silence (here) astounding.

'Sanders is also saying a lot of what Trump is saying. Far better candidate IMO.'

It depends if you prefer socialism to capitalism.

Sanders will increase taxes which will eventually hit the middle class and will probably eventually discourage business growth, Trump will cut taxes and create jobs using a capitalist, business-friendly approach.

Sanders is a global warming believer and energy will end up being higher priced, Trump will save the coal and steel jobs in Ohio and throughout America's industrial heartland and will scrp the global warming globalist agreements and reduce energy prices in the US which will help business create jobs.

Trump will end illegal immigration, Bernie probably won't, and that will create more bettr-paid jobs for Americans.

' Trump is trailblazing because the first rule of politics is to address people's concerns.'

Trump is practically the only major politician in the world who is not politically correct and therefore has the courage to tell the truth which is why he has addressed people's concerns, unlike the controlled world political class who are not allowed to.

Also, I am sure that this has been noted before but the other interesting thing about Trump is that, given the enormity of recent events (financial crisis, terrorism, war(s)), you need a larger than life personality to address them. A different character of different psychological stature won't ever inspire confidence in people who feel that their world is falling apart. Trump is a genius because he seems to instinctively recognise this. Things feel very, very bad right now for many people. People need someone to say Big Things. From my standpoint in the UK, I can't hear anyone else.

But "saying big things" achieves nothing. Yes, Trump can stand up and say he will destroy ISIS. It doesn't mean that he will, and frankly we would be silly to believe him.

Very true -but a detailed plan delivered using hundreds of words won't either - and they know this from bitter experience. People want to hear "Terrorism", "Wall", "Jobs", "Security", "Anti-war", "Immigration".

And the reason why people want to hear simple solutions to big problems is because we have been talked to death by the political process. Take terrorism. We know that there are many causes and no simple solutions. Trump is reversing the psychology of this in order to fix it. He's offering a simple solution. Genius.

The more I study Trump, the more I find him fascinating. How is this for (possible) tactics/natural abilities ? He knew that in order to gain support, he would have to say 'big things' (because he knew that referring to 'geo-politics', 'socio-historical', 'nexus', 'aetiologies', no simple solutions', 'multifaceted', 'long time', blah, blah, blah would not hold much truck with voters) but, in the current zeitgeist, saying the big things in a big way is racist, sexist and xenophobic. So, what do you do? He had two options. He could either attenuate the racism and sexism or he could go large. He knew that others would be attenuating the things that they talk about, so he knew that he would stand out from the others in this way (but could be risky for him). The interesting thing for me is that he is supported despite being labelled as sexist and racist. Candidates presenting in this way would normally be committing political suicide. He's still very much present. Why? Several reasons. Voters couldn't give a shit if he is sexist and racist because there are bigger things in their lives - they need solutions and he's offering. They also like the fact that there's more chance of achieving even one outcome when it's made simple (they probably don't care whether this is actually the case or not). Relatedly, people don't give a shit who is their neighbour as long as they are a good citizen, and again, he is offering in this direction (he's very specific, suggesting that it's not a generalised racism that we are seeing. Rather, the focus would suggest that he is problem-specific; 'there's a problem with immigration, let's build a wall' type of thing). I must admit, I am stumped to explain his support despite his rhetoric (including the paucity of political discourse around policies). Fascinating.

Big Things? Is his sexist tweet comparing the physical attractiveness of his wife to Ted Cruz's wife a big thing. A really petty thing in fact. How any woman could continue to support him after that, I really question. He has demeaned Cruz's wife, but also Melania. (And yes I know that a PAC supporting Cruz supposedly "started" it when they published a nude photo of Melania.)

I don't think he's been risking a lot. Politics are getting polarised, as can be seen from the other GOP candidates, who are very much on the right, and Sanders who's very much on the left, in contrast to earlier trends of converging to the centre.
His speech is purely demagogic and in line with previous politicians who have preyed on people's fears. Nothing new there.
What differentiates him IMO from other polarised politicians is that, in contrast with what he claims, he is mostly unreliable and hypocritical, having changed his public views more often than he's built big buildings.

He is risking a lot because he is challenging the conventions that all of the political class and establishment follow i.e. he is challenging political correctness which means that he is attacked by all of the great and the good combined. But it is precisely because he is not politically correct that he is so popular. All of the other politicians are controlled and have to be politically correct and have to say what their spin doctors and focus groups tell them to say whereas Trump is so rich and so fearless that he doesn't care what he says and that signals to the people that he has courage and is unlike all the rest of them which means that he is prepared to tell the truth, whether that be about someone's looks or character or anything, and that means that people think he will tell the truth about the country's problems and will have the courage to change things and fix them. He is not constrained by the rules that the political class play by, he ignores their spin and lies and bluntly tells the truth. That akes people think that he is on their side and not told what to do by the establishment.

The praise they heap on Mr. Trump — “He speaks the truth,” “He’s fearless,” “He’s not politically correct” — echoes the words conservatives have used to describe others, like Sarah Palin and Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, who have stirred their passions before.
...
“We need the truth,” Mr. DeLemus went on. “We don’t have to like the truth. But we need it.”

www.nytimes.com/2015/07/18/us/politics/donald-trumps-complicated-charisma-fills-void-in-republican-politics.html

"Donald Trump, Challenging Political Correctness, Strikes a Chord
...
Mr. Trump has regained momentum in Iowa two weeks before the state’s caucuses, and many voters cite his bravado and willingness to assail political correctness, more than his policy proposals, as the main reasons.

“I like that he’s not politically correct,” said Sarvinder Naberhaus, 54, of Ames. “Nowadays everybody has to have the same opinion. I love that he’s being so blunt.”

For Bill Brown, a 58-year-old factory worker who caucused for Mike Huckabee in 2008, Mr. Trump’s tough stance on immigration is a plus, but the fact that he does not shy away from sensitive political issues is the primary appeal.

“He speaks what’s on his mind,” Mr. Brown said. “I’m tired of political correctness.”

The term “politically correct” has become a boogeyman in the battle for the Republican presidential nomination, as candidates look to embrace the outsider mantle in a year when being “establishment” is out of style."

www.nytimes.com/2015/07/18/us/politics/donald-trumps-complicated-charisma-fills-void-in-republican-politics.html

There are real, huge problems - wages have not increased for 12 years, jobs are being lost as firms move abroad, liberty is being removed under political correctness, terrorism means that liberties are being removed, globalisation is destroying the middle class and all the politically correct politicians can focus on is minor issues like the sugar tax or other politically correct issues. People want soemone who cuts through the crap and solves the big issues and that takes courage because it means defiance of the establishment consensus and that is why Trump is so popular and why the establishment desperately want to stop him implementing change that goes way beyond a sugar tax.

He is talking about big things (I was thinking of Ed MIlliband or David Cameron and their mealy-mouthed 'rhetoric' when I wrote that). The racism, sexism, etc. has floored many a politician, especially when there's a disconnect between public and private persona (think 'Back to basics' campaign/sleaze, here in the UK). I think it's testament to just how big the things under discussion actually are and what is at stake, that people couldn't care less about Trump the personality. Trump is taking a huge risk, both now and at the beginning when he didn't have the benefit of hindsight and did not know how he'd look next to the others.

' I think it's testament to just how big the things under discussion actually are and what is at stake, that people couldn't care less about Trump the personality. '

Absolutely.

'Trump is taking a huge risk, both now and at the beginning when he didn't have the benefit of hindsight and did not know how he'd look next to the others.'

Yes and that is why he entered the race. He is not a "politician" and he doesn't need the hassle of being criticised by teh entire world establishment and media but he is doing it simply to fix America which the "all talk no action" controlled politicians are incapable of doing.

Katie Hopkins has enormous courage even though I don't agree with everythng she says (but that is free speech in our tradition of liberty). She is not politically correct and understandds what is at stake and why Trump can fix it.

"Trump is winning against all the odds because ordinary people know that Western Culture is in a fight for its life. So when will someone stand up for it here?"

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3426589/KATIE-HOPKINS-Trump-winning-against-odds-ordinary-people-know-Western-Culture-fight-life-stand-here.html

Trump is going to change everything that the world establishment has done. He will scrap the global warming agreements, he will scrap the globalist free trade deals, he will protect American jobs and liberties and he will end the neocon wars and destroy Isis very, very quickly. That is why the entire world elite is ranged against him and are begging the Republican elite to stop him.

No, he isn't going to change everything, claig. Even in the highly unlikely event that he gets into power, because he doesn't possess these incredibly powers of godlike infallibility that you credit him with. Any more than Nigel Farage did when you saying all this stuff about him a year ago.

'he doesn't possess these incredibly powers of godlike infallibility that you credit him with'

Remember what he calls the politicians - "all talk no action". Trump will be all action which is why they are terrified of him. Some of them will likely be seeing a prison cell if they are found to have swindled and tricked the American people. Trump is not mucking about, he is the real deal which is why they desperately want to stop him.

He probably won't get in but I wonder if people may see him as a 'prototype' . He's enabled an insight into possible alternatives. The thought of HC, though...

If there's anyone I think it's all talk and no action is Trump. He doesn't even talk the talk because all he does is mention the problems (well a keyword, not even the actual problem) and say how much he cares and that he'll fix it. Then, when pushed for it, the best he can do is to say that he'll leave it for others to fix and that others will pay for it. If that's not all talk and no action, then I don't know what is.
And about lowering taxes, it's not even brave. It's simply to tell people what they want to hear.

Brave would be to say that he'd raise some taxes and how he'd apply them to improve life for the American people. All people.
Everything else he says it's what people would like to hear (except those with half a brain who see that what he's saying is just talk):
Less taxes
More employment
No wars
No immigrants
No global warming

Unfortunately he has no real proposals to make any of that work and he doesn't possess a magic wand. unless Melania is a witch

To be fair, voters know that all political rhetoric mostly comes to nothing (rhetoric = argumentation and persuasion, elevated to an art from in Ancient Greece). Why do you imagine Labour want to introduce votes for 16 year olds? They know that people don't become "more conservative" as they get older-they become wiser to the political process and its lies rhetoric. So what's different with Trump? Why hasn't his unbelievably unlikeable public and private persona sunk him?

Answer=risk

He is not a ready-rolled, ready-prepped and ready-to-go politician (think Blair's son parachuted into a constituency; MIliband brothers, Clintons). These are not risking much because they were cast in the role when they were made. We know that this is the case with, certainly, Clinton (numerous interviews with aides attest to this; ditto for the others). Voters are doing a risk assessment of his risks and have decided that he is worth something. It's not as simple as suggesting that if someone votes for him then they must be racist or sexist, as I've seen journos assert. Voters are effectively doing a risk assessment and deciding that given the enormous costs both to him (energy, health, time away from family, reputation, financial, career, historical implications, ) and to his voters (risk of being viewed as sexist, racist, intolerant, asshole), the benefits must outweigh these costs. Very unwise to dismiss ordinary voters as simplistically sexist and racists, as many, many journalists have (shortsightedly) done. Even non-experts are very good at performing cost/benefit analyses.

I don't think it is about Trump taking risks, its more that he is a narcisstic sociopath. He feels untouchable in what he says and has no regard for the consequences.