is it really possible that Donald trump could be president?????

[Bishopsbuddy]

I have zero understanding of American politics and wondered could some one give me an idiots explanation pls. Could trump really win???

The key question about Trump was brought up by one of the debate hosts when he outright asked him

"are you a conservative?"

That is supposed to be Trump's weakness according to the Daily Telegraph type Establishment political commentators. Trump is up on stage with 4 Establishment conservatives - a Tony Blair politically correct type, Kasich, who therefore rightly doesn't stand a chance, Jeb Bush who is Establishment, Rubio who is Establishment and Cruz who is anti-establishment but is obviously really a puppet, and one decent guy, the outsider and non-politician, Ben Carson. So the academics, policy wonks and professional political commentators think that they have got Trump by saying he isn't "a real conservative".

So Trump answered

"I am a common sense conservative"

and that is exactly what the ordinary people want. The rest of teh puppets aren't common sense because they are too frightened to be that since they are puppets of the donor class. The public want common sense conservatism and that is what Trump has got and why he can appeal to independents and blue-collar Democrats when the ideological conservatives who argue about "eminent domain" can't.

In fact Jeb Bush after the debate said about Trump "he is not a real conservative".

The Establishment think that that will harm Trump and that Trump's attacks on George W Bush, a supposed real conservative but not one really, will harm Trump. But they won't because the majority of the people aren't "real conservatives" in the sense of Jeb Bush and his mother.

How would you know what the American public wants, claig?

'How would you know what the American public wants, claig?'

Because I am a conservative (opposite to a Cameron Oxbridge politically correct one) and I know what I want and I think the American people want the same.

I think that people should consider how strong the anti-Trump vote is. He won a plurality of votes in NH and may do again in South Carolina. I think he would lose to any of the other candidates on a one-to-one basis.

And does he, or anyone else, seriously think that he could get any Sanders supporters with his racist and sexist proclamations? Voters on the left in the US don't support people with rhetoric like Trump's.

SenecaFalls, I think your are underestimating Trump if you think he can't beat Bernie or Hillary in a one-to-one.

'And does he, or anyone else, seriously think that he could get any Sanders supporters'

Absolutely which is why Bernie said he was going after Trump voters. There is a huge crossover between Trump and Sanders voters because they want a lot of the same things. Trump offers different solutions but Trump's are realistic because he is a businessman whereas Sanders' are idealistic because he is a democratic socialist. Idealistic Sanders won't beat pragmatic Trump.

"Trump or Sanders: can you tell who these voters support?"

"Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump are clearly on opposite ends of the political spectrum, but their supporters have some surprising similarities. Half of Trump’s supporters say they are angry at Washington, and a third of Sanders’ supporters agree. Meanwhile, 43% of Trump’s supporters are registered Democrats who are fed up with the status quo. Can you tell the difference?"

www.theguardian.com/us-news/video/2016/feb/09/donald-trump-bernie-sanders-supporters-similarities-video

Seneca yes, in a head to head vote he loses. But the republican contest isn't a head to head vote and doesn't look to become one any time soon. IMO at best ("best" here = best for the republican party) it will come down to a three way split, with two anti-establishment candidates (Trump, Cruz) who are both hated by their own party, against one mainstream candidate (Rubio? Still the most likely to emerge as the establishment candidate I think). In that scenario I'm not sure that Trump loses, unless one of the others implodes.

I think just like in Europe it is quite possible for a candidate like Trump to do well with some left-wing voters. Look at Farage, and Le Pen. Both get some support from former Labour/ Socialist voters.

Claig- You should consider the distinct possibility that other people don't hold the same opinions as you. How many people live in the USA? You think they all share your opinions? Or over half? Or even a tenth?
Just because you think it, does not mean that other people with their own life experiences have come to the same conclusion as you. Let's face it you have very little overlap with these people if you arent even American.

The key thing about American elections is that they are not proportional i.e. they don't just add up pro and anti Trump votes. It is based on delegates based on votes with states and therefore it all depends on where the anti Trump votes are spread and it is not evenly among states.

According to Roger Stone, former Trump adviser and 40 year long Republican operative, Trump needs only a 4% increase in the African-American vote in order to become President. Trump will take states off the Democrats that no other Republican "stiff" like Jeb Bush could dream of taking.

If Trump beats the Republican Establishment and makes it as the Republican nominee, it is very likely that he will be President and the world's political classes will go into meltdown because it will be America First once again.

he is a pretty astute judge of what Trump-supporters like or at least will put up with.

I think that's the point, though - he's not bright enough to produce what non-supporters want in order to persuade them to vote for him.

'How would you know what the American public wants, claig?'

Because I am a conservative (opposite to a Cameron Oxbridge politically correct one) and I know what I want and I think the American people want the same.

Which is another way of saying "I don't know, I just like to delude myself"

Also if you only think they want the same things as you, then its not correct to say and that is exactly what the common people want without the qualification of "assuming they share my views".

'You should consider the distinct possibility that other people don't hold the same opinions as you'

Var123, I know that. Obviously Tony Blair and his Oxbridge teams don't think the same as me. But I said Trump would win from the beginning and among conservatives (of which I am one) the polls say that is so far true.

And,, I say that Trump will win the election because he will take a lot of independents and blue-collar Democrats as well as conservatives.

The politically correct Democrats will never vote for Trump, but I think Trump will get enough Democrats in order to win.

' Let's face it you have very little overlap with these people if you arent even American.'

I disagree with you because I believe in common humanity. i believe that people all over the world want the same things - jobs, good healthcare, good education, prospects, a fair chance, opportunity, prosperity, freedom, free speech, truth and no political correctness. That's what I want and I think that will be proved to be what the American people want.

'then its not correct to say and that is exactly what the common people want without the qualification of "assuming they share my views".'

That goes without saying. All my thoughts are what I think. We won't know if I am right until the final votes are cast.

Most people believe in common humanity. You would struggle to find many who don't. However, there are a large range of views of how to achieve it and just because you think the optimal solution for 2016 is called Trump, does not mean that most of the other people who believe in common humanity share your views. In fact, many might see Trump as the anti-Christ. Just saying...!

'In fact, many might see Trump as the anti-Christ'

Maybe Tony Blair does think that. But it is already clear from the opinion polls and the huge Trump rallies that far surpass those of any other politician, that the majority of American people don't think Trump is the anti-Christ (with Trump even leading among evangelicals) which is why the Republican Establishment is terrified of Trump becoming the nominee.

It's nearly 20 years since Blair was at the peak of his popularity, 9 since he left power. It's becoming so out of date as reference that you may as well speculate about Gladstone.

But I said Trump would win from the beginning and among conservatives (of which I am one) the polls say that is so far true.

But then, a year ago you said UKIP would gain lots of seats in the General Election.

'you may as well speculate about Gladstone.'

But I like Gladstone and dislike Blair and everything that spinner represents so I use that to contrast it with someone I like, Donald J Trump.

That's an interesting technique. So if I were to say, for instance, that I like Sanders, it would be a legitimate debating tactic to attribute all anti-Sanders views to someone I dislike like Hitler, just as a useful point of contrast?

The more you say, the more illogical your arguments become.

The problem is what Blair represents to you isn't always the same as the other people who will read your posts. In your head there appear to be black and white absolute truths which you think must be immediately obvious to others.
, but that's not right, is it?

'But then, a year ago you said UKIP would gain lots of seats in the General Election.'

I didn't think they would get more than 10 or 20 based on our rigged electoral system which disenfranchises 4 million voters by according them one seat only. I said in a PR voting system that UKIP would have won lots and lots of seats.

I am not right all of the time. i know the Establishment outwitted UKIP and placed stooges inside it in order to beat it. But I know that Donald Trump is a different kettle of fish. He is a fearless billionaire who wants to be President in order to save America from the "stiffs" and "losers" like Jeb Bush who will preside over America's continued decline. They won't beat Trump because Trump knows how serious the situation for America is and that he must win to help the American people.

Trump has 100 times the courage of a Farage which is why Trump will win.

'The problem is what Blair represents to you isn't always the same as the other people who will read your posts'

Of course it doesn't. You may like Blair, but I don't. I post my views not views that meet Tony's approval.

I think just like in Europe it is quite possible for a candidate like Trump to do well with some left-wing voters. Look at Farage, and Le Pen. Both get some support from former Labour/ Socialist voters.

But the left in the US is different from the left in Europe. For one thing the left is not nearly as left. The political center in the US is farther to the right than the political center in the UK and other parts of Europe. But "political correctness" for lack of a better term is very important in the culture of left-wing politics in the US. The comments that Trump has made about Mexicans, Muslims, and women, and about overturning the Supreme Court case that made same sex marriage legal in the US, have made him anathema to the left.

Fearless. Brave. Heroic.
Bombastic. Bullying. Ridiculous.