is it really possible that Donald trump could be president?????

[Bishopsbuddy]

I have zero understanding of American politics and wondered could some one give me an idiots explanation pls. Could trump really win???

[claig]

'That article makes Jonathan Freedland sound rather scared of the whole thing'

Absolutely! They are all bricking it, the Establishment, the political class, the privileged, the metropolitan elites, the spinners, the whole lot of them. This is a revolution they never saw coming and one they have no way of stopping. It will change absolutely everything across the planet.

'Fox News is fascinating to see - they're so desperately Republican but equally detest Trump so badly.'

Absolutely . It is hilarious. they are phoneys, the have been conning real conservatives and now everyone can see it. They get stacks of email saying "why are your guests against Trump?" They have to be careul how they handle Trump. Trump took them on and beat them as Jonathan Freedland wrote

"Similarly, Republicans comply with a golden rule: thou shalt not cross Fox News. Trump did – and it did him in no harm at all. If anything, it won him more favorable coverage from Fox’s cable rivals."

'It'll also be interesting to see how the candidates go down in South Carolina, I believe it's a very traditionalist, religious part of the country and I haven't heard any of the front runners trumpeting their Christian credentials in any coverage I've seen so far.'

Yes, now it starts to get fascinating. Apparently it is in South Carolina that all elections start getting really dirty and attacks get very strong. Apparently that is how the cycle always go each election. Cruz is the Christian contender and he just with drew an attack ad because one of the women in the ad turned out to have done a soft porn film years before and that would not go down well with the religious voters. Unfortunately, Trump withdrew a very good attack ad on the "Washington insider" Cruz because Trump's people think he will be better off doing positive ads. It seems crazy to me, I just hope the Establishment hasn't put stooges in to advise Trump incorrectly.

[claig]

I have to say thought that Fox's Hannity is excellent. He obviously likes Trump and yesterday he had Roger Stone on as a guest and flashed his book title across the screen.

[LovelyFriend]

My opinion is I think republicans may be daft enough to vote him as their candidate but I don't think America as a county is stupid enough to make him president.

[LovelyFriend]

Not only did trump inherit his wealth but if he had just put his inheritance in an average interest bearing account instead of "investing" it he would be many times more wealthy than he is today.

So he has actually cleverly lost loads if his inherited wealth.

Hth.

[claig]

Good video clip from Fox's recent programme called "Voter Revolt". Discusses Trump and Bernie and the revolt of the people against the Establishment and how none of the experts and pundits saw it coming.

[Terribleknitter]

That's the programme I saw advertised. Not sure how nobody saw it coming, surely the growing dissatisfaction with the Obama administration on all sides should have given them a bit of a clue? Plus the fact that dissatisfaction with mainstream politics has been happening globally, it's not like America is immune.

[claig]

'Plus the fact that dissatisfaction with mainstream politics has been happening globally, it's not like America is immune.'

It surprised me, but I am not an expert of pundit. I thought that American politics was fully controlled by the bug donors and money interests and that all the candidates were bought and paid for. In Europe, we have revolts like UKIP and now Corbyn, but I never thought that the American elites would allow any revolt to materialise. But the American people have turned over the table, they have smashed through the lies and named the puppets. When America revolts, it really is an earthquake and it will shake the entire world. It will topple our elites and our Establishments and puppets. That is why the Guardian is in such a panic. They see the end of the game that has been played on the people.

[GruntledOne]

Interesting article

"Trump is the most dangerous major candidate for president in memory. He pairs terrible ideas with an alarming temperament; he's a racist, a sexist, and a demagogue, but he's also a narcissist, a bully, and a dilettante. He lies so constantly and so fluently that it's hard to know if he even realizes he's lying. He delights in schoolyard taunts and luxuriates in backlash."

"Trump's path to power has been unnerving. His business is licensing out his own name as a symbol of opulence. He has endured bankruptcies and scandal by bragging his way out of them. He rose to prominence in the Republican Party as a leader of the birther movement. He climbed to the top of the polls in this election by calling Mexicans rapists and killers. He defended a poor debate performance by accusing Megyn Kelly of being on her period. He responded to rival Ted Cruz's surge by calling for a travel ban on Muslims. When two of his supporters attacked a homeless man and said they did it because "Donald Trump was right, all these illegals need to be deported," he brushed off complaints that he's inspiring violence by saying his supporters are "very passionate.""

"Trump's other gift — the one that gets less attention but is perhaps more important — is his complete lack of shame. It's easy to underestimate how important shame is in American politics. But shame is our most powerful restraint on politicians who would find success through demagoguery. Most people feel shame when they're exposed as liars, when they're seen as uninformed, when their behavior is thought cruel, when respected figures in their party condemn their actions, when experts dismiss their proposals, when they are mocked and booed and protested.

Trump doesn't. He has the reality television star's ability to operate entirely without shame, and that permits him to operate entirely without restraint. It is the single scariest facet of his personality. It is the one that allows him to go where others won't, to say what others can't, to do what others wouldn't"

[claig]

That article is pure propaganda. He sums up with

"There is something scary in Donald Trump. We should fear his rise."

The elite and the Guardian and the political class do fear his rise because it is the rise of populism.

That article focuses on fearmongering over what it calls Islamophobia. But Trump leads the polls not because of Islamophobia, but because he promises to defeat the politically correct elites who run the country and who he calls "losers". The people want "winners" and they want America to "win again" on jobs, on trade, on beating Isis etc etc.

It is an America First policy that Trump offers and that is why the world's political class are in panic. That is why the Guardian and the metropolitan elites fear Trump because he spells the end of their globalist dreams.

The Financial Times signalled what is behind the fear of Trump in their article

"The nativists must not win".

Well, the people are going to win and the globalists are going to lose and Trump is the one who will singlehandedly defeat them.

[GruntledOne]

And, of course, claig, not one of the many, many articles you have quoted is "pure propaganda", is it? Actually, if you read the article with an open mind, you will realise that it is actually rather a good analysis of Trump's appeal.

[fanjoforthemammaries7850]

One man's "end of political correctness" is another's election of a thick racist dangerous narcissistic buffoon.

Just saying.

[FiFiIsAPoodlesName]

Don't forget 'sexist'!

[fanjoforthemammaries7850]

Oh yes that too!

[claig]

'Actually, if you read the article with an open mind, you will realise that it is actually rather a good analysis of Trump's appeal.'

The article is OK, but it is skewed and incorrect. I was basing my analysis mainly on the video that accompanies the article which is all about Islamphobia and is definitely incorrect.

The article makes some valid points but it then exaggerates others to try to portray Trump as noxious and terrifying. Yes, Trump is terrifying to Blair and the Guardian because all of their type of spin can't stop Trump winning, but he is not terrifying to the majority of people which is why Trump gets the biggest crowds of any politician ever, with people queuing 8 hours for entry and with record breaking crowds in Louisiana that surpass the crowds that Elton John got at the same venue. Those people arenot racist and sexist and noxious, they are ordinary Americans who have had enough of the Establishment losers who are in te pokets of billionaires. I understand why the author is so terrified of Trump, becaue he knows that his liberal politicians have nothing to offer these crowds of people.

Trump is not a demagogue as the author says, he is just someone who can communicate with ordinary people and make them laugh unlike a Cameron who reads speeches written for him by teenage wonks from Oxbridge.

Trump is not racist and sexist. Here is a black former Clinton adminsitration employee who knows Trump

The author is right when he says

"It is undeniably enjoyable to watch Trump. He's red-faced, discursive, funny, angry, strange, unpredictable, and real. He speaks without filter and tweets with reckless abandon. The Donald Trump phenomenon is a riotous union of candidate ego and voter id. America's most skilled political entertainer is putting on the greatest show we've ever seen.

It's so fun to watch that it's easy to lose sight of how terrifying it really is."

But it is not terrifying. It's not Cameron, it's not politically correct, but it's not terrifying. The record crowds who attend his rallies aren't terrified, they are having a ball.

'He pairs terrible ideas with an alarming temperament'

What terrible ideas? To bring jobs back to America, to end illegal immigration, to impose trade tariifs on China, to scrap the global warming stuff and to end the destabilisation of the Middle East? And his temperament is to attack the puppets and liars who are his contenders and to call Bill Clinton out for what he is. What is wrong with saying the truth?

'He lies so constantly and so fluently that it's hard to know if he even realizes he's lying. He delights in schoolyard taunts and luxuriates in backlash.'

Yes that is true, but so what? We know he is lying and he taunts his opponents to entertain the crowds who can't stand the puppets either.

'His view of the economy is entirely zero-sum — for Americans to win, others must lose.'

That's right. Nothing wrong with that. China is going to lose, it will have to cut its trade deficit with the United States and start buying more products in the USA. Trump works for the American people not for China or the Guardian.

'Trump answers America's rage with more rage. As the journalist Molly Ball observed, "All the other candidates say 'Americans are angry, and I understand.' Trump says, 'I’M angry.'" Trump doesn't offer solutions so much as he offers villains. His message isn't so much that he'll help you as he'll hurt them.'

Yes, Trump is angry which is why he resonates with the people who are angry too. But the villains that Trump identifies are not ordinary people, they are the corrupt Establishment "losers" in the pockets of donors and special interests and he is going to end their game. He attacks "low energy" Jeb and the "puppet" Cruz and that is why Trump fans love his courage.

'Trump's other gift — the one that gets less attention but is perhaps more important — is his complete lack of shame. It's easy to underestimate how important shame is in American politics. But shame is our most powerful restraint on politicians who would find success through demagoguery. '

This is where the author shows his hand. They want to shame Trump into shutting up and into stopping being angry and vocalizing what the people feel. They want him to be politically correct like the rest of the political class of puppets so that their side can beat him. But he won't be shamed for speaking his mind, he won't be politically correct because he is the people's advocate against the elites.

'Trump lives by the reality television trope that he's not here to make friends. But the reason reality television villains always say they're not there to make friends is because it sets them apart, makes them unpredictable and fun to watch. "I'm not here to make friends" is another way of saying, "I'm not bound by the social conventions of normal people." The rest of us are here to make friends, and it makes us boring, gentle, kind.

This, more than his ideology, is why Trump genuinely scares me.'

Absolutely, Trump is not here to make friends with "low energy" Bush or "puppet" Cruz or with Bill Clinton, he is here to "make America great again" for the American people.

'his temperament is so immature, his narcissism so clear, his political base so unique, his reactions so strange, that I honestly have no idea what he would do — or what he wouldn't do.'

That' a fair point but so what? He is far better than the puppets which is why he has record breaking crowds and is way ahead in the polls.

Trust the people, they know how to spot an Establishment stooge and Trump isn't one.

[Mistigri]

It will be interesting to see how last night's debate plays out in terms of support, and it's also fascinating to wonder about Trump's strategy (if he actually has one other than baiting the other candidates and relying on his "shock-factor" to generate column inches).

For those who haven't read the reports, he went after GW Bush in no uncertain terms - said he lied about weapons of mass destruction - and he defended his position on Planned Parenthood (the organisation - he says he is still anti abortion). Given that the Republican base still holds strongly positive views of the Bush presidency, and overwhelmingly supports the decision to go to war with Iraq, and also strongly disapproves of PP, it will be interesting to see if this affects his ratings.

My feeling is that it won't necessarily have much of an impact in the short term - neither of these issues will deter the Claigs among primary voters. And while the major non-Trump candidates are still splitting the non-Trump vote four ways, he will most likely remain ahead. But at some point he will need to appeal to those Replican voters.

OTOH maybe he is pitching for non-Republican votes here? If he believes he already has the nomination sewn up, maybe he is looking to take some of Bernie's voters in the event of a Trump-Clinton presidential election ...

[claig]

Mistigri, did you watch last night's debate?
It was the most brutal debate in US history. Krauthammer described it as thermonuclear and as cagefighting. It was wild and Trump took all the puppetes on and stood his ground. Fantastic.

Tim Stanley of teh Telegraph and all the Establishment journalists were tweeting live how Trump had lost it and was crashing, but they are mainly spinners. Trump's fans know he is speaking the truth and exposing the lies of the corrupt power elites. The press tweeted "is Trump a conservative?" "he has made the mistake of challenging Jeb's brother", "what is he thinking?" but Trump fans are with Trump all the way. USA.

'But at some point he will need to appeal to those Replican voters.'

No the audience booing Trump were the donors and sponsors and packed Republican stooges. Among ordinary people, trump is still o top as his yuuge crowds demonstrate and of course Trump appeals to Democrats because as he said he is a "common sense conservative" who agrees with Democrats on things like social security etc.

'OTOH maybe he is pitching for non-Republican votes here? '

Absolutely, he will win a yuuge number of Democrats and independents. But the great thing about Trump, and why the people like him, is that he doesn't pitch, he says what he believes as he said in the debate "donors, I tell the truth" as the stooges booed him.

'If he believes he already has the nomination sewn up'

He is not sure of that yet. He knows he is in a knockdown fight with the Establishment and their stooges but he has the courage to take them on and after he has beaten them, he will win over Democrats because he believes what he says and believes that the Democrats are not all wrong.

Last niht was a huge test for him as the Establishment threw everything they had at him and as he skated on thin ice by challenging George W Bush etc, but the polls still said that Trump won while the press pundits and Daily Telegraph types said that Trump had blown it.

[OurBlanche]

You thought that was 'fantastic'?

That he was reduced to calling other candidates 'liars' whilst being, erm, economical with the truth himself was absolutely hilarious.

Yes, Donald, you have never been made bankrupt, just watched 4 of your companies fold owing hundreds of billions of dollars, as, and I quote, "I used the law four times and made a tremendous thing. I'm in business. I did a very good job."

He is not a politician, he is a filibustering bombast. If you feel the urge to have the US fronted by the proverbial bull in a worldwide china shop, go for it. But I suspect the backlash will greater than you, or he, have imagined.

[claig]

Kasich, the Tony Blair Oxbridge spin type candidate, tried to stay out of the melee by claiming he wanted to "remain positive" (Tony Blair style) but he was surplus to requirements.

Jeb Bush played the sympathy card by saying how he loved his mother for the umpteenth time and Trump retorted "she should be running". Comedy gold

George W Bush hits town during the week to help Jeb out, but there is no stopping Trump and I wouldn't be surprised if he, against all Establishment media advice, steps up the attacks of W's record.

[claig]

'But I suspect the backlash will greater than you, or he, have imagined.'

I very much doubt it. The South Carolina result will tell the tale. I think Trump will win convincingly because ordinary voters are not swayed by Jeb's tactics and in reality everybody knows the truth about the Iraq War and George W Bush.

[GruntledOne]

Trump failed quite badly because he targeted Bush who stayed calm. If Trump had any sense, he would have seen that that wasn't going to work and refocussed, but he's not bright enough to do that.

Overall, the picture of the Republican candidates squabbling and shouting each other down was unedifying and undignified, and won't have done any of them any good.

[claig]

GruntledOne, Trump was angry and Jeb was calm but that won't help Jeb because he is just a smooth spinner and the people are angry and they want a fighter in the White House who will make America "win again". That is Trump. He took the gloves off because they all came for him. It will do him no harm with ordinary voters. Kasich who tried to play the tony Blair saint card by being "positive" just showed that he is not up for the fight for the Presidency.

[GruntledOne]

But the point is that Trump didn't have the judgment to see that the pre-decided Jeb bashing tactic wasn't working. It's a failure of political judgment that we will see again and again. Sure, his supporters hail all that as a victory, because they will never, ever do anything else. But, as has been pointed out time and again, he needs more than his diehard supporters, and that sort of poor judgment won't have been missed by the less convinced and the floating voters.

[claig]

GruntledOne, Trump is smart. You have to remember that he is not a "politician", he is not one of the "political class" which means he doesn't know all the ins and outs that someone like Jeb knows. That means that Trump is on weaker ground in terms of policy wonk detail. So Trump's tactic is to go for the brawl which just enhances his anti-establishment stature.

The press pundits all tweeted that Trump was crazy to bring up "eminent domain" when he didn't have to. But that was a brilliant move by Trump because he diverted from policy wonk detail onto a conservative policy wonk detail that all the other Establishment candidates care about becuse they have to and which ordinary voters don't give a fig about. So he once again showed that he was with the people and they were with the wonks.

Cruz is a former US National Debate Champion, they are professional politicians and spinners, Trump isn't, so Trump takes their ball away by refusing to play by their rules and goes for the brawl. The Daily Telegraph correspondents don't like it and say that Trump has blown it, but ordinary people prefer it because they don't like the wonks, spinners and special interest backed candidates.

'he needs more than his diehard supporters, and that sort of poor judgment won't have been missed by the less convinced and the floating voters.'

But the die-hards are the bow-tie wearing policy wonk academics who care about "eminent domain", the Daily Telegraph Establishment type journalists who tweeted that Trump was "not a real conservative" and that his attacks on George W Bush were things that Democrats would say. But the voters aren't die-hard cravat wearing conservatives, they are ordinary people who care about jobs, taxes, security, health and education and that is where Trump offers hope and solutions instead of cravat country-club conservative ideology.

[Mistigri]

I'm not sure it is an error of judgement tbh. Trump does make errors - not participating in the previous debate almost certainly cost him votes in Iowa - but he is a pretty astute judge of what Trump-supporters like or at least will put up with. And he knows that for the sort of (anti-)candidate that he is, all press is good press. He has shown himself to be by far the best of the republican candidates at using the media (both traditional, and social).

While he can get away with only appealing to his natural constituency - ie as long as he doesn't have to go head-to-head with a saner candidate - he knows that he can get away with this behaviour and even benefit from it. I don't know that he thinks the nomination is in the bag, but I do think he's starting to think beyond the primaries and about how he takes some of the Sanders vote in the election (assuming Clinton gets the nomination).

Note that I don't think any of this comes anywhere close to winning him an election - he is too unpopular except among low-education white voters. But he is doing what Farage tried to do in the UK (stealing votes from right and left alike) and what Le Pen has done more successfully in France. The FN in France have a lot in common with Trump actually - a nationalist, isolationist party that is not actually that right wing economically, and which appeals to white people whose economic security has been damaged by technology and globalisation. This sort of party does quite well where there are multiple candidates, but because they are very polarising, they do much less well in straight head-to-head contests.

[Headmelt]

I think it is frightening the amount of support he is getting. The more outrageous he speaks, the more I wonder how angry the voters must be. Then again, they (the majority vote) have form for making bad decisions, when you see some of the stuff that Bush said and did when he was president. If I were living in America, I'd be worried. Trump is feeding plenty of hatred and racism to get people fired up.