is it really possible that Donald trump could be president?????

[Bishopsbuddy]

I have zero understanding of American politics and wondered could some one give me an idiots explanation pls. Could trump really win???

[var123]

Yes, there's change for better and then there's change for worse.

[CoteDAzur]

"it does make a refreshing change to have two serious candidates that have not (yet) been purchased by big business and their lobbyists"

Make no mistake, anyone who has made it this far has already made pledges to various interest groups in exchange for their support, which is not necessarily financial.

[GruntledOne]

I really can't work out whether claig is being serious. I'm reading her posts in a Sarah Palin voice. "He works sooooo hard!", "He cares so so much!", "He has a great family!"

What you have to bear in mind is that claig was essentially posting the same thing last March/April about Farage, complete with the same confident predictions of victory.

[MetalMidget]

"Didn't trump say rape doesn't count in marriage?!"

I believe one of his campaign spokesmen said that - that it was impossible for a man to rape his wife, because legally it's not rape (marital rape is a crime - like in the UK, the law was changed across all states in the early 90s). He said it in response to people raising the issue of Trump allegedly raping one of his ex-wives during their marriage.

[PippaHotamus]

I may be wrong but didn't Claig support UKIP last year?

[ChemicalReaction]

Marking place to read later.

[claig]

'I may be wrong but didn't Claig support UKIP last year?'

Yes

[PippaHotamus]

Ah, thank you Claig. I always find your opinions interesting, even if I don't agree with them.

[claig]

Thanks, Pippa.

Watched Hannity on Fox last night. His guests were Geraldo, who supports the Democrats, but knows Trump well and is a friend of his over decades and Doug Schoen, a top former Bill Clinton campaign manager.

Both of them think that Trump will be the Republican nominee and Geraldo thinks that Trump will win the election due to Trump's huge cross-over appeal among independents and even Democrats.

Geraldo says that there is no way that Hillary will be indicted because he doesn't think it is a crime (Geraldo is a lawyer), but Doug Schoen (also a lawyer, Harvard Law School) is not so sure. He hopes not because he supports Hillary but he is not sure.

I have said from the beginning that I think Trump will be President. He will easily win a head-to-head election with any Democrat. The only possibility that he won't be President is if the Republican elite manage to stop him getting the nomination and they are desperately trying to find a way to do that at the moment.

[claig]

Geraldo also said that "Trump hasn't got a mean bone in his body", based on knowing Trump for decades, and that therefore he won't do a lot of the things he has said he will do. Hannity who is a real conservative and who likes Trump said he was not so sure about that and asked Geraldo if that means that a lot of conservatives would be disappointed by Trump, but Geraldo said they won't be disappointed because he will deliver what they want economically.

What Geraldo says is what most Trump supporters believe i.e. that Trump doesn't mean everything he says, but will make business boom and slash the debt and bring jobs back to America.

[SenecaFalls]

like in the UK, the law was changed across all states in the early 90s

By the early 90s, it had been changed in all states, but states began criminalizing marital rape in the 1970s; by the mid-80s, many states, including mine, had done so.

[prh47bridge]

He will easily win a head-to-head election with any Democrat

Trump's supporters believe that but it is rubbish. He is miles behind Clinton on the head to head polls. Rubio beats Clinton and Cruz is in with a chance but Trump loses. If Sanders is the candidate Trump does even worse but Rubio still wins and Cruz is in with a chance.

It is, of course, a long time to the election and it could all change. But if the election was tomorrow and Trump was the GOP candidate he would lose.

[claig]

'Trump's supporters believe that but it is rubbish'

But Geraldo is a Democrat supporter.

These are the head-to-head polls. Clinton beats Trump on 2 and Trump beats her on one. Trump hasn't even started on Hillary yet. Wait until you see what he says about her. It will be a landslide.

www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html

' Rubio beats Clinton and Cruz is in with a chance but Trump loses'

Have you seen Rubio and Cruz. It is a joke to believe they could beat Clinton. These polls are way out. Trump was laughed at and underestimated by the media and polls all along; they got it wrong.

'If Sanders is the candidate Trump does even worse'

Trump is praying that he faces Sanders.

[ChipsandGuac]

I wouldn't trust Geraldo with being honest about what he had for breakfast, never mind what he thinks about Donald Trump. That man is a douche.

It's worth bearing in mind, New Hampshire haven't endorsed a candidate who has gone on to become President since 1988. In 2008, they voted for Hillary.

[claig]

Hillary may be more unpopular than the pundits have been saying.

She only won in New Hampshire among over 65s and among those earning over $200,000. In every other category she was trounced. Over 80% of young people (women and men) voted for Bernie.

Trump won in every category - among independents, evangelicals (where he even beat Cruz), non-college educated and college educated.

Hillary is supposed to have high support among African-Americans, but if that turns out not to be true and if she crashes in South Carolina, her entire campaign could come off the rails.

[CheerfulYank]

George Bush is not stupid. Again, I don't like him, but he isn't. I DO like Obama, and even I will admit that if you search, he's said some ridiculous things as well. They just aren't publicized and when they are they are put down to exhaustion etc, which is true.

I don't think Trump will do any of the bullshit he says he will. I don't think Congress would let him. However, I don't think he'll become president so I don't think we'll have to worry about it.

[expatinscotland]

I'm really afraid Trump will be president. I don't care for Hilary at all.

[prh47bridge]

Clinton beats Trump on 2 and Trump beats her on one

Note that he only beats her on the Fox News poll. Fox News tend to overestimate support for GOP candidates.

Like your other hero, Farage, Trump is a marmite politician. Trump currently turns off far too many voters.

[claig]

Trump is definitely marmite, but he is way more serious a threat to the Establihment and more substantial a candidate than Farage. Trump has unbelievable courage and confidence, probably due to his ealth and success and character.

The question is how marmite is Trump. People like Tony Blair would probably not like him, but how many Democrat and independent voters would like him? Because even though some Republicans are probabaly "modernisers", they are probably not as "modernising" as our "moderniser conservatives" and unlike them would probably prefer Trump to Hillary.

"Trump Could Win It All

A new survey shows a sizable number of Democrats ready to defect from Hillary Clinton to Donald Trump.

So if Donald Trump proved the political universe wrong and won the Republican presidential nomination, he would be creamed by Hillary Clinton, correct?

A new survey of likely voters might at least raise momentary dyspepsia for Democrats since it suggests why it wouldn't be a cakewalk.

The survey by Washington-based Mercury Analytics is a combination online questionnaire and "dial-test" of Trump's first big campaign ad among 916 self-proclaimed "likely voters" (this video shows the ad and the dial test results). It took place primarily Wednesday and Thursday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.

Nearly 20 percent of likely Democratic voters say they'd cross sides and vote for Trump, while a small number, or 14 percent, of Republicans claim they'd vote for Clinton. When those groups were further broken down, a far higher percentage of the crossover Democrats contend they are "100 percent sure" of switching than the Republicans."

www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2016-01-08/new-poll-shows-donald-trump-is-a-real-threat-to-hillary-clinton

' a small number, or 14 percent, of Republicans claim they'd vote for Clinton'

These voters are probably the equivalent of our Conservative Party political class, but they are outnumbered in the US by real conservatives.

[claig]

You can see the fear of elites worldwide about what Trump victory will mean for them.

Here is Tim Stanley, the Telegraph journalist who sort of understood what was happening with UKIP. But he knew that was not a threat to the elites. But with Trump, I think he knows the threat is real and he says Trump must be stopped.

"Donald Trump can win -- and he must be stopped"

edition.cnn.com/2016/02/10/opinions/donald-trump-republican-party-stanley/index.html

They are in real trouble worldwide because of the rise of Trump and the thousands of people who attend his rallies. This is no Farage, this is no mini-me, this is a revolution and they know it. It is the end of political correctness across the entire planet.

Here is Tim Stanley slowly getting what is happening

"Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders have blown up political correctness in New Hampshire

The victory of these outrageous populists represents a revolution against under-performing, politically correct elites. Maybe we should welcome it
...
People are tired of being patronised and lied to. The feeling is global in its reach.

I think tonight’s results are good, even as a lamestream conservative hoping that someone a little less apocalyptic comes forward soon (Rubio, Kasich - come on fellas)."

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/donald-trump/12149468/Trump-and-Sanders-have-blown-up-political-correctness-in-New-Hampshire.html

But Tim Stanley and all of the elites are kidding themselves, the lamestream are kidding themselves if they think that Kasich or Rubio "come on fellas" are going to be able to stop Trump and the people.

[Nicebucket]

No. There is no way he can win.

[tangerinesarenottheonlyfruit]

"Richard Branson entrepreneurial flair£

That's nonsense! Richard Branson built his business empire.

Trump is not a shrewd businessman.

Trump inherited his wealth, he's had four corporate bankruptcies since 1982.

In fact he would have done better if he'd given up managing his businesses 30 years ago and stuck all his cash in index funds, as reported in the press recently.

[MaryPoppinsPenguins]

I started a thread with almost this exact title two weeks ago and got not one single reply

Anyway....

[CoteDAzur]

Mary - Don't feel bad. A week ago, claig would have still been crying into his pillow because Trump lost the Iowa primary. Otherwise, there is no way he would have missed a thread with the word 'Trump' in it.

[CoteDAzur]

"George Bush is not stupid."

We only have his spoken word to go on, and adding together all he has said over the years (not just his 'dumb' moments), he does come across as a fool who lacks not only knowledge and understanding, but also vision and... well... intelligence. His long years of alcoholism and cocaine use may have had something to do with this.

I guess he would have had to have a minimum of intelligence to have made it to US presidency, no matter how many strings his family had to pull on, but that is about all I can think of in support of the claim "George W Bush is not stupid".

Whether he is truly stupid or not, W Bush was certainly not the kind of man who should be allowed anywhere near nuclear launch codes. The cost of his blind misadventure in the Middle East is ongoing and frankly can't even be estimated - in money or in lives lost.