is it really possible that Donald trump could be president?????

[Bishopsbuddy]

I have zero understanding of American politics and wondered could some one give me an idiots explanation pls. Could trump really win???

PS that's 50:50 to win the nomination - not the presidency.

Fully agree with you, Mistigri.
Although I think it's way too early to call out who the other contender with be.

50:50 is not particularly good. It's about the same chances Clinton or Sanders have atm, based on polls.

'Do most commentators think he's going to win? '

Yes, most commentators now think that Trump will win the race to become Republican nominee. It is too early for them to think about what happens after that.

This is the most important election ever. The globalists are getting ready to drop the hammer on the people. The Supreme Court put a stay on the climate change plans on Feb 9. Four days later, Supreme Court Justice Scalia is found dead. Hannity on Fox says he only has 50% confidence that the Republican Congress will stop Obama getting a left wing appointment to replace Scalia.

Trump is the America First faction against the globalists. The Financial Times had an article

"the nativists must not win"

If Trump wins, everything acroos the world changes. If the globalists win, they may drop the hammer.

That is why Trump will do everything not to lose. He will reveal more and more truths as the fight gets more and more brutal.

Clinton is floundering. She is so desperate she has to play the left's only card - divide and rule, identity politics, racism and sexism. It won't work because the people want to be united not divided by the planners and schemers behind the Democrats.

Bernie is hammering her on Wall Street, but Trump has the answer that everybody wants - jobs and protectionism to protect and bring back American jobs in opoosition to the globalists and their globalisation plan to destroy teh industrial base of America by shipping plants to Mexico and China etc

50:50 is not particularly good. It's about the same chances Clinton or Sanders have atm, based on polls

I'd say 50:50 is pretty damn good for a candidate who has no political experience and is hated by the party whose nomination he is seeking

But he's certainly not a dead cert to win the election whatever his groupies think. A crowded field makes it more likely he will win - in a head to head he would struggle, because of the marmite factor.

Hillary by the way is still odds on favourite at the bookies.

I'm sure she is, which is why I added based on polls. Bookies' calculations are different. And may well change in the next few months.

And yes, past millionaire mavericks haven't made it this far. So 50:50 is pretty good for him.

His best chance is to have the other candidates slaughter each other and for him to seem more reasonable than him. The selection this year is pretty bad, IMO, which is why he may have a chance.

Sorry,
more reasonable than them.

Lweji yes agree with you there - Trump has basically expanded to fill the vacuum in the Republican party. They have not a single properly qualified candidate.

And yes re bookies I agree that they do calculate it differently, but you probably get a better idea of the real chances of each candidate by looking at what the bookies are offering than by reading commentators with an axe to grind.

'A crowded field makes it more likely he will win - in a head to head he would struggle'

You are right that the polls apparently show Cruz beating Trump in a head to head and Rubio beating Trump in a head to head and Krauthammer on Fox said that he thinks Trump would lose in a head to head.

Personally, I don't believe those polls, they don't seem to make any sesne, but we will see. Bring it on!

This is more like what I call an authentic poll based on facts on the ground.

"Poll: Trump beats Clinton head-to-head"

thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/269702-hillary-trails-trump-head-to-head-poll

Let's go, bring it on!

Bookmakers set their odds according to the bets they're taking in. That's why the English ones always give worse odds on England winning the world cup than the reality.
They will set their odds on next President according to the bets they are taking which I guess will be slightly skewed than it should be towards the candidates that are getting more press coverage atm - whoever they are.

That's why the English ones always give worse odds on England winning the world cup than the reality.

Not sure about that, though. Isn't it the other way around?
At the moment, for example, it gives better odds for England than for Portugal, even though, indisputably (and as much worse I think the Portuguese team has become) Portugal has a better team than England and has beaten them in every game for quite a long time. Just saying...

Bookmakers will move odds according to how many people are betting on a particular outcome, but odds will also reflect how likely an outcome is. I take your point though that Trump's odds (in particular) may be skewed by his newsworthiness.

Not suggesting that the odds are "right" just that I'd be more inclined to trust bookies' odds ahead of the media, because their business model depends on getting these things broadly correct and they don't have an axe to grind.

New CBS national poll. Trump leads in nearly every demographic.

"CBS News poll: Trump maintains commanding lead over GOP field
...
Trump leads among nearly every demographic group.

More than half of Republican voters say they may still change their minds about who to support, but two thirds of Trump voters say their minds are made up.

Seven in 10 Republican primary voters want a candidate who will shake up the system, and their top choice for the nomination is Donald Trump. Just one in four want someone who will work within the system.

Donald Trump is also seen as most likely to get things done in Washington, far outpacing his rivals on this measure."

www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-news-poll-gop-race-trump-remains-on-top-hell-get-things-done/

Amazing stats.

I like this site because it shows different polls
www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

It's interesting that in today's Quinnipiac poll, Sanders has a better chance of beating any Republican candidate than Clinton, who'd lose for all, except against Trump.

But, on yesterday's USA Today/Suffolk poll, pretty much every Republican candidate would win, but all with better margins than Trump.

PPP (D)'s poll, last week was giving Rubio as the only Republican with a chance.

Oh, well, too early anyway.

"WALTERBORO, S.C. — They dislike "politicians" ... They love his brash style ... They want to overthrow "the establishment," be it Republican or Democratic.

They're Donald Trump voters who echo his calls — some of them controversial — to change the country.

"He really wants to change politics," said Foster Hester, 64, a boiler technician who with his wife, Gladys, arrived hours early for a Trump event at a hunting ground in the South Carolina low country. "Our politicians are bought and paid for by Wall Street and lobbyists and special interests."

www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/02/18/donald-trump-south-carolina-voters/80497274/

When Trump wins, it will spread across the planet as people across the world say "why can't we have some Trump 2016?"

"He's not scared" of being politically incorrect, said Marion Sauls, 50, a retired power plant operator from Smoaks, S.C.

There is also evidence that Trump is drawing new voters into the process. Republican pollster Frank Luntz said that, according to his research, some 15%-20% of Trump's support are not regular Republican primary voters.

Whether old or new, Trump voters are angry with both political parties, as well as "the elites and institutions that they believe have run America into the ground," Luntz added."

People will have to cover the O'Jays classic Love Train

The next stop that we make will be the White House , 100 Pennsylvania Avenue
Tell all the folks in Russia, and China, too
Don't you know that it's time to get on board
And let this Trump train keep on riding, riding on through
Well, well

People all over the world (you don't need no money)
Join hands (come on)
Start a Trump train, Trump train (don't need no ticket, come on)
People all over the world (Join in, ride this train)
Join in (Ride this train, y'all)
Start a Trump train (Come on, train), love train

What Trump said in a town hall in Bluffton South Carolina has now made the press.

"Donald Trump on 9/11: "You Will Find Out Who Really Knocked Down The World Trade Center"

At a Wednesday morning campaign event in Bluffton, SC, Donald Trump takes his relitigation of the Bush administration's record on 9/11 and Iraq to the next level, seeming to imply that we don't currently know who "really" committed the 9/11 attacks.

Trump says if he is elected: "you will find out who really knocked down the World Trade Center."

"It wasn't the Iraqis," he explained. "You may find it's the Saudis."

"They have papers in there that are very secret," he also said, referencing the 28 still-classified pages of the 9/11 commission report. "But you will find out."

www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/02/17/trump_you_will_find_out_who_really_knocked_down_the_world_trade_center_secret_papers_may_blame_saudis.html

It looks like Trump is going all the way.

A Trump adviser spells out the magnitude of what this election really is - Trump vs the globalists, the nation state versus globalism, America vs the globalists.

Millions of ordinary people are with America and Trump, the elites are with the globalists.

"Trump Adviser: Race Comes Down To ‘Nation-State Versus Globalism’

On Monday’s Breitbart News Daily, Donald Trump’s Senior Policy Adviser Stephen Miller said this election represents “binary choice” that boils down to a decision of “nation-state versus globalism.”

Miller warned that that nation is “at a tipping point” and is “nearing a point of no-return.” The election, Miller explained, represents an opportunity to break from Washington politicians’ longstanding adherence to the “globalist ideology,” which has not served the interest of the American people.

“You have one candidate with a clear position on understanding that a country has to serve the interests of its own people, not just the interests of international commerce,” Miller said.
...
“Part of being a conservative is looking at results. We’ve followed the globalist ideology– and it’s an ideology. It is not fact-based,” Miller said.

This election, Miller explained, comes down to, “nation-state versus globalism. And the reality is, is that the results. The record is in. The jobs haven’t come back, wages haven’t gone up, communities haven’t been rebuilt. The jobs left, the wages left, the incomes left, and they never came back and only Donald J. Trump is going to bring them back.
...
“If you wake up in the morning and you believe that the system hasn’t been working for you, if you don’t think your politicians have your best interests at heart, if you think they’re bought and paid for, then it’s very simple: you’re going to be voting for Donald J. Trump for President.”

www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/02/08/trump-adviser-race-comes-down-to-nation-state-versus-globalism/

If Trump wins it will spread across the world. Political correctness will be finished, lies and spin will be over and truth and liberty will return.

Only America can beat them because only America is stong enough and only a billionaire with amazing confidence can take them on.

Well, the Pope has stepped into the fray. This election year just gets more bizarre by the minute.

www.nytimes.com/2016/02/19/world/americas/pope-francis-donald-trump-christian.html?_r=0