is it really possible that Donald trump could be president?????

[Bishopsbuddy]

I have zero understanding of American politics and wondered could some one give me an idiots explanation pls. Could trump really win???

Even worse, because any thread vaguely related to the US presidential elections become overwhelmed with claig's "jokes". It becomes very hard to discuss anything remotely sensible.

In fact, MNHQ, it could be considered trolling. (and yes, you can delete this post)

The odd thing is the EU referendum thread doesn't have a single claig comment. Its another thing that makes me think that claig's posts are from a perspective of I-don't-believe-this-rubbish-but-look-how-mindless-the-supporters-of-this-latest-political-fad-are.

It is annoying though. DH does it sometimes too and I fall for it almost every time.

'you are just playing Devil's advocate (and you do it very well, I have to say!).'

I am explaining what Trump is really all about, not what the Tim Stanleys of the Daily Telegraph and the BBC journalists tell you. I am explaining why he leads among American Republican voters and why the Republican Establishment are desperate to stop him and why he upped the ante on them again last night by "doubling down" on his George W Bush attacks and his threat to run as an independent.

I have explained that this Presidential race could not be more serious because of the world situation and why Trump is serious about winning and why he is prepared to take every Establishment panjandrum, every billionaire bigwig and every scared cow Bushism on.

Among all that, I intersperse the odd Trumism, the odd Trumpite joke and the informational videp broadcasts of the Stump for Trump sisters who get it when the BBC journalists don't.

'The odd thing is the EU referendum thread doesn't have a single claig comment'

Because I now realise that the US election is the biggest game in town. Cameron wandering around Europe cap in hand to the EU political class is irrelevant. We know what the outcome will be, he will come back waving a piece of paper saying "a deal in our time". Even if Project Fear means we stay in the EU, the EU will fall apart anyway, it is just a matter of time.

If Trump wins, the entire politically correct political class across teh planet will fall, so the EU Referendum is now small fry compared to Trump 2016.

What we are witnessing in the United States is the bigest earthquake of our time. Sanders, a septuaginarian democratic socialist is more popular than the Clinton machine with all of its hedge fund and Wall Street backing.

Trumo, the leader in the Republican race, is mocking the Bushes, challenging W's record and tearing up every Establishment convention and destroying every myth in a brutal truth-telling expose.

The debate on Saturday night was the mst brutal presidential TV debate in US history.

All of the world's political elite are on tenterhooks at what will happen because most of them backed Bush and Clinton.

If Trump is triumphant, everything will change, every truth will be tipped on its head across the world and no political class on earth will escape the ramifications.

The EU Referendum is a small speck of dust in what is happening in the world, because if Trump wins, the Brussels bureaucrats will be irrelevant on the world stage as Trump rewrites every trade deal in the US's favour and has a rapprochement with Russia.

That is why they all want to stop him and that is why they will all be tuned in on Saturday night for the results of the South Carolina primary. They will all be tweeting, the Daily Telegraph, the Financial Times and the Stump for Trump sisters.

The South Carolina vote will be largely meaningless. There is only one way a southern state like that is likely to go. It would only be significant if it actually defied expectations.

Because claig loves quotes:

During a rally in Florida, a pro-Donald Trump protester interrupts Bill Clinton. Clinton is prepared.

"Before he became a Republican," Clinton said about Trump, "or when he was--"

"You took his money!" shouts the protester.

"I certainly did," replied Clinton. "And I took his money for my foundation, and used it better than he's using it now, I guarantee you."

"I remember when he called me to say how terrible the Republicans were being to me and Hillary and how unfair they were and what a brilliant job Hillary did as a Senator."

www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/02/15/bill_clinton_to_trump_protester_yes_i_took_his_money_i_used_it_better_than_he_is_now.html

GruntledOne, South Carolina has 11% of its population having served in the military and there are a lot of military bases there and George W Bush has an 84% approval rating there. There is a large evangelical population and it is hardball conservative in attitude.

Someone like Cruz would in theory do well there, but I don't think he will, because Trump transcends all these categories with his courage, honesty and full frontal assault on political correctness and the corrupt useless elites.

Fox pundits are saying if Trump wins South Carolina in double digits after trashing George W Bush and calling him a liar, then how on earth can Trump be stopped anywhere?

The answer is they can't stop Trump because the people admire his courage and honesty and he will topple the lot of them.

Lweji, that is right which is why Cruz and all the media pundits say that Trump is not a "real conservative". But what everyone is going to be shocked to find out is that Trump will be more popular than George W Bush because he is a "common sense conservative" who is not politically correct, who gets along with the Clintons for business and on some issues, but who will get rid of useless elites.

No it is not, it means having the courage to tell the truth about Bush, about Iraq, about the Clintons, about Syria about global warming and everything else. That is one of the main reasons why Trump will thrash the cowardly frightened political class of spinners.

George W Bush was too frightened to mention Trump's name last night in South Carolina because he knows that Trump would come out and destroy him if he tried it just as he destroyed the Clintons when Hillary called him "sexist".

The courage of Trump is extraordinary. Fox News pundits are saying it is getting "fiery" in South Carolina.

"George W. Bush Blasts Trump Without Mentioning His Name"

www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/02/16/george-w-bush-offers-tough-takedown-never-mentions-trump_n_9241278.html

It is a bit like Jeb's mother, Barbara, when she didn't mention Trump's name but said

"I'm not getting into a spitting contest with him, because he can spit further"

The liberal magazine, Salon. Heather Digby Parton is an excellent journalist.

"The rise of the Trump Party: Why the Donald’s shocking debate performance could signal the death of the old order

During the weekend's GOP debate, Trump went where no other Republican has ever dared to go
...
And he said that Bush and company lied about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. Both of those ideas are articles of faith on the left, but nobody in GOP electoral politics has ever said such thing in public, much less in a nationally televised presidential debate. That he did it to Jeb Bush’s face is pretty astonishing.
...
Over the next few days we’ll see if this was the death blow people are assuming it was. There is good reason to doubt it. Trump’s appeal all along has been based upon his taking on sacred cows. That he does it to their faces reads as courage. And this is one yuuuuuge sacred cow.

Or is it? If you’re Donald Trump you look at Jeb Bush and figure that if his brother was such a big success and everybody revered him so much, why isn’t Jeb doing better?
...
It is possible that Trump’s instincts about the Republican base are much more finely honed than all the data and the models the professional strategists have put together. If he’s right and this latest heresy doesn’t destroy him, we will know that the Trump Party is rising from the ashes of the old GOP. And it’s a very different beast. It has no dogma, it’s not ideological and it’s based on white resentment, celebrity worship and nationalism. And whether they want to admit it or not it’s far from clear that the Democrats will be any better at dealing with it than the Republicans have been.

www.salon.com/2016/02/16/the_rise_of_the_trump_party_why_the_donalds_shocking_debate_performance_could_signal_the_death_of_the_old_order/

Events are moving too fast, some people on the gound in South Carolina have called it Mach 3 speed, some have called it warp speed, but the general consensus is to say it is Trump speed, there is nothing bigger, nothing faster.

"South Carolina isn’t Bush Country anymore

He’s hijacked my party,” Jeb Bush said of Donald Trump on Tuesday on CBS's "This Morning." “Someone has to take a stand.”

Bush has deputized himself to take that stand in South Carolina, which will hold its Republican presidential primary Saturday and which is regularly referred to by his supporters as "Bush country." He has brought his mother and brother, the former president, into the state to help with this job -- believing that South Carolina's Republican Party will return logic back to the nominating process.

I wouldn't bet on it.
...
Trump didn't invent the anti-establishment movement in South Carolina. It has been there, waiting for him, for at least four years. But, he is the sort of candidate not only anti-establishment but willing to take on/down the establishment in the harshest terms that appeals to a piece of the Republican electorate who feels as though they have been ignored and taken for granted by their own politicians for years and years.

Don't be surprised if (when?) those anti-establishment voters deliver Trump a victory in South Carolina in five days time."

www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/02/16/south-carolina-isnt-bush-country-anymore/

The world is watching Trump 2016!

You seem to be having an animated discussion with yourself, claig.

Just imparting the latest momentous information on matters Trump in these fat moving times, DisGruntledOne.

fast not fat

Gruntled,
I think 5 in a row is a record. Even for claig.
But where else would any one get info about the presidential election but from him?
Note to claig - how many people, would you guess, are actually reading those long repetitive posts?

Question for everyone except claig: (No offence claig but it would be great to hear from other people and we all know your views.)

What would a Trump presidency be like? Surely he'd tone it down a bit a lot?

Is it just me or is it all a bit ... redneck?

Presumably Trump is quite accustomed to pragmatism in his business dealings. He's not a redneck - he is a New York businessman who has held liberal positions on many issues for large parts of his career (he was a big donor to the Clintons and some would say that he's now gifting them another election win ).

But he's not going to be president. Over 90% of black voters will support the democratic candidate whatever happened, and Trump has mightily pissed off the other "minority" group. You can't win an election like that.

I was thinking more that the people who he is appealing to are rednecks.

I suspect he would be a lame duck all the way through, because he wouldn't be able to get things through Congress and would have to tone a hell of a lot down once he realised the realities of world politics. Then he would get into big trouble with his supporters for failing to deliver and with any luck the whole thing would fizzle out. The problem is that he would try to throw his weight around in the Middle East which could have very volatile consequences, and the really worrying factor is what would happen if he feels that he has to try something showy to win back support.

I think he'd actually be a disappointment to his core voters.
But, whatever he'd want to do internally would depend a lot on Senate and Congress majorities.
I don't think things would change dramatically, although I suspect he would scrap the recent achievements in social and health care.

As for external policy, it will depend on his Foreign Secretary. I think he'd listen to that person, as I'm not sure he is that knowledgeable about foreign politics or history. Could be wrong. Either way it's not obvious he does or doesn't know. Unlike his clearly uneducated vice-runner.
I think he'd probably treat foreign politics more as a business relationship than military or political.

Other than that, I think White House would become very interesting and tweeter worthy.
And instead of press releases and conferences, we'd have daily tweeter feeds.

In any case, most presidencies are never what they set out to be and are always limited by the safeguarding institutions and, crutially, by world events.
So, I'd actually say pretty much business as usual. Nothing earth shattering.

The same for Sanders, although I'd expect he'll build up on Obama's legacy of increased social justice and support, and gearing up towards more dialogue and less military intervention.

Which of them would do something about America's gun problem?