Brexit: what would happen to EU citizens living in UK?

[marghini]

I am a EU citizen and I have been living, working and paying taxes in the UK for a while.

I am really concerned about what would happen to the EU citizens who built a life for themselves and settled here in the UK in case of a Brexit.

Do you think all EU citizens already living in the UK would be pushed out? Or perhaps the government would just stop allowing further EU immigration?

Well you can at the moment - there will be no changes until we leave.

If we leave.

I'm clutching at straws but I think there's a reason why Article 50 hasn't been invoked, and not just so David C didn't have to do it.

I think free movement for holidays will be maintained. Some EU ministers (all male of course) are getting all huffy and puffy and saying e must invoke Article 50 NOW and Lord Hill has resigned etc and they'll have to punish us for leaving.

BUT we've not said we're leaving yet. There's a petition for another referendum with over a million signatures. That has to be debated in parliament. The EU can wait.

AND it's not in the EU's interests to have a basket case on its doorstep.

So I think it's a good idea to wait until we invoke Article 50, let everyone calm down and get rid of the egos and emotions and then get on with sorting out an exit deal for everyone. And hopefully we'll get an exit deal which allows for some free movement (and certainly no visas for short stays.

And can I urge you all to write to your MP, whether you are a leaver or remainer, and whether they are a leaver and remainer, and make the point that a bunch of white middle-aged men deciding the future of the EU and UK is not representative and we need some women at the exit talks (not Vivian Reding) - and we need the interests of the 48% remainers to be served as well as the 52% leavers.

EU lawyers have been asked to look into ensuring the leaving process is not allowed to drag on longer than absolutely necessary

They can't force us to invoke Article 50 until we are ready. The lawyers might as well go and do something else.

If we are unable to boot out the 1000 or so Albanians who are currenetly here and shoudn't be, I don't think long-established law-abiding EU citizens who live/work/pay taxes here need have anything at all to worry about.

Schwab, all we have is a non binding referendum. Legally it is of the same standing of a straw poll of passengers at a Berlin station so the Germans will just have to wait. We are currently in the EU and we have not exercised article 50. We can't be obliged by EU law to exercise it ever even with 100 referenda indicating some UK OAPs want to leave.

What the statistics tell us is the complexity rather than simplicity of the outcome: www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36616028

1. Out of 30 areas with Leave in 30 voters identity was significant, then 28 had fewer graduates and 27 had most elderly. National identy and education have probably an important role than age.

1. How they voted means only % but does not say the weight in numbers. 73% of the younger vote remain but they had the lowest turnout. Should the younger were more going out to vote would we have different result?

44% of 45 to 54 voted Remain but we don't know the numbers in this section. What we may say is they are still working for their pension and have to do very hard for next 10 to 20 years.

1. The turnout was very low in the areas with more young people. If this was higher it might have affected the result.

1. London N Ireland and Scotland lead in Remain but socially don't fit any regular social pattern.

Finally it is important to always keep contact with your MP She/he needs you to know about the issues and you need him/her.

Girl - I think there is a move to try to argue that the referendum was the trigger whether the UK govt say so or not. It possibly hangs on whether legally the UK parliament is sovereign or the UK people... but I may have misunderstood that...

Obviously if there is any chance it can be proved legally that this is the case it will be in the EU's interest to argue the case, to discourage tentative exploratory referendums in other states...

However my German really is too ropey to properly understand politics in German, and I can't find anything in English about it in a brief google search, so I may have misunderstood.... Certainly all the Brexit coverage now seems to be about not letting the UK dither about trying to have their cake and eat it, as it were...

The UK referendum act specifically does not say the Government has to accept the result (and I think some have in the past) so that would make it very hard to say the member state has decided to withdraw and we don't have a written constitution so don't have "constitutional arrangements" which say if in a non binding referendum a slight majority of those who voted but not those in Scotland and London vote to leave then the member state either has to follow that vote or has an arrangement which means it must be followed by the Government.

I am sure we will start things going but I don't think legally the Germans or French can force the pace although they could bring things to a head by making unilateral changes without UK consent in breach of EU law and leave the UK to decide whether to sue over that or not. It will all be very interesting. Also the British people have taken a decision so I don't think morally we can delay forever, however foolish the vote of the people was.
" Article 50

1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

1. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

1. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

1. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

1. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

Apologies for being off topic in citizens leaving but it's relevant to timing. The Government issued a paper earlier this year on what happens if the vote is to leave. It says
"2.9 It is therefore probable that it would take an extended period to negotiate first our exit from the EU, secondly our future arrangements with the EU, and thirdly our trade deals with countries outside of the EU, on any terms that would be acceptable to the UK. In short, a vote to leave the EU would be the start, not the end, of a process. It
could lead to up to a decade or more of uncertainty."
...

However it sounds like they expect to give the articel 50 notice very quickly which might well be a mistake. If I were Cameron I would wait until May or BJ are leader before putting in that notice. There is no huge rush.

"As the Prime Minister has said, if the vote is to leave the EU, the British people would expect the UK Government to notify the European Council straight away that it wished to leave under the terms of Article 50. "

www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/504216/The_process_for_withdrawing_from_the_EU_print_ready.pdf

Maria yess it is nice too know :) Godt å se :) best of luck too you and your husband also.. By the way it was Lill bit of spell mistakes above we applied for RC not PS så it's long way too go for uss.. We are in doubt if he will get residence card..but norway is member of EEA not EU Så in the future when Britain will change the rules for EU gods know maybe the EU rules does not apply on uss because we are member of EEA not EU

It is relevant I think - I am in a similar position to EU citizens in the UK because I am a UK citizen in an EU country. How long we have to sort out what we will do (I'm going to get the ball rolling on duel citizenship, which my children already have) is very relevant.

Certainly as soon as Article 50 is invoked all EU member states would have to unanimously approve any extension to the 2 year withdrawal period, which it is vanishingly unlikely will happen just to help the UK negotiate more favourable trade agreements!

My feeling is it will be done and dusted in not much more than 2 years, and I am acting on that assumption - talk of a decade seems far fetched as the rest of the EU would have to agree to letting the uncertainty drag on - but of course I don't know for sure!

I think 2 years is likely too because of what the Government has said before the vote about hurrying, the political problem if we delay in enforcing the will of the people and pressure from the French and Germans and also business presumably will want the period of uncertainty over quickly so they can get on with generating profits (or trying to in out of EU UK).
We will either be totally outside or secondly not even in the EEA but have some kind of free trade deal like Switzerland or thirdly in the EEA (unlikely as we don't apparently want free movement of persons). I think there was a 4th option too but I've forgotten it.

Oh and all political parties with power don't want Brexit so it is probably likely whether Labour or the Tories are changing the law about people already living here that they do not start throwing people out. There is no Brexit party and even Gove and BJ are not particularly anti immigrant at all. Corbyn (and anyone who takes over from him) is not going to be pro Brexit either.

mathanxiety thanks for your reply☺. If I am a Swedish national, can I get a NI number of UK before October 2018 and start job in UK?

It seems to me after reading this blog that negotiation will take two years and if I will register my self in UK before 2018 and start job their it will be much easier then after October 2018 ?

A NI number doesn't entitle you to anything! I have NI numbers for 3 countries! I am only entitled to work in two of them! and only because I am a dual citizen, not because of the NI numbers.

It takes 5 years to qualify for a permanant residency card, nobody who arrives now will have one in place by 2018, but we don't know what the cut off criteria will be by then for who stay's/leaves, but whatever it is, a NI number won't be it!

Hammad, upon reflection, if you are a Swedish national you would be better off moving to Ireland, trying to establish Irish residence via Swedish/EU nationality and taking your chances on continuing freedom of movement between Ireland and the UK that existed prior to joining the EEC and the development of the EU. Freedom of movement between Ireland and the UK was a separate Ireland/UK thing.

This would be quite a chance to take though. I am not sure how possible it would be to parlay Irish residence into the sort of status that might be required to facilitate right of residence in the UK. I am also not sure if the old arrangement between Ireland and the UK would still operate. It seems to me it will, but I also can't really believe the Leave vote won..

Your best bet is to try to talk to an official in the Irish Embassy in Stockholm. You could ask about your chances of becoming Irish citizens, and also about your chances of establishing residence in Ireland and whether that would facilitate movement to the UK. It would be a precarious position to be in in the UK, and I personally wouldn't take that road if I were you.

As your wife is a doctor, I would look elsewhere for a career anyway if I were her. The NHS is facing the axe. Depending on her ability to pass professional qualifying exams, the US might be a better bet.

I still think your wife should try really hard to learn Swedish. I mean do whatever it takes.

I have not read all replies. So this may I have been said already. They said on the news that people already living here before the vote will not be asked to leave and that people living in Europe before Brexit will not be asked to leave. But I guess that bit will be for the other countries to decide.

Mathanxiety, you are talking about the Surrender Singh route into the UK! According to MNers who have genuinely gone down that route, pretty much all are rejected. The HO can say "we don't believe your settlement in Ireland was genuine, we believe you only lived there to come here, so your application is declined". This has happened to people who have actual ties in irleand (relatives etc) and did settle genuinely there before using that to try to move with their spouse here.

Move to Ireland if you want to stay in Ireland (but research their heath service first and be sure she'll be comfortable working in it, many Irish doctors and nurses are not!)

Don't move to Ireland as a route to England, we already know it doesn't work (tested by non EU spouses)

NowWhat1983: sadly not bollocks.
Wrt university rankings - prepare for a sharp downward slide into obscurity for British universities.

What do you know of funding for research?
What do you understand of collaboration in research?

In the US, business sponsors pour money into R&D in universities. Hence Silicone Valley and a host of other US hotspots dominated by industries that are spawned by university research. US universities dominate the top 50. Part of what makes them dominate is their research budgets. Research budgets make it possible to attract the top talent. Top talent attracts the top research dollars. Do you see where I am headed here?

Do you know where money comes from that pays for British university research? I am talking about the money that attracts the top academic talent to do the research, the money that pays for the labs and the PhD students, etc. Do you know what top academics can make in the US? Is British industry prepared to step into the vacuum caused by Brexit? And what happens to cross-EU collaboration with projects funded by Brussels? All of that will disappear.

Do you understand the link between research and job creation?

I suspect many British Leave voters don't realise that money pays for everything and that it comes from specific places, not the wide blue sky.

British universities rank high because of EU funding and researchers

They won't any more

The HO may be singing a different tune if and when a certain amount of brain drain occurs as a result of Brexit. But yes, the route to British right of abode via Ireland is very precarious.

I wonder if as a Pakistani Hammad's wife has any rights under Commonwealth arrangements. No doubt this has been researched and they have drawn a blank.

The US has a doctor shortage. If she was willing to set up shop in a poorly served area she might be eligible for a visa. Or even without that commitment, a visa might be possible. It would take time though. And Hammad's work prospects might be poor in the US.

As a doctor, the wife might have an advantage in an Australian visa application.

Regardless of the UK universities ranking high, in many European countries people study for a masters instead of a bachelors degree! Therefore they have a lot more relevant experience for working in research and are better qualified.

I wonder if as a Pakistani Hammad's wife has any rights under Commonwealth arrangements.

My guess:
Possibly she could apply to be a British Subject
which is not the same as a british citizen!
A british subject can hold a british passport but does not have automatic right to live and work in britain.
It is only really worth it if you would be stateless otherwise from what I can tell.

The unis depend on funding for high tech sectors also from EU sources for research. It is research money and Research and Development that makes their power. DS who just got an Meng degree from a top uni and applied for a PhD says so. British unis will loose the EU funds and that is not good. So they must replace the funding loss from the government if possible or from corporate sources. If there is austerity gov cash is not secure. Corporations can weaken the bargaining power and request more rights to use the equipment and labs. May be there are more routes to funding that I dont know of.

I am at a loss with article 50 of the Treaty. Confused. I know we dont have a codified Constitution. I know there is no constitutional obligation to accept the result. But PM said he will respect it and implement it. I dont know what this means and how is done. However I suppose the Parliament must do this and given that 440 or 74% of MPs last Feb were with 'Remain' I cannot tell how they will agree to serve a notice to EU. Anyone knowledgable in EU things? When UK was admitted in the EU back in 1970s our partmers knew our system of government and so they cannot complain now. Do they know the referendum is not binding?

So would they get parliamentary majority to pass the bill? It has to be constitionally right that is must go through a parliament and have a majority. Is there a possibility we might not be in or out?

Huge sympathy for all the posters on here.

Here's the petition asking for another referendum.

Have you seen the petition for a second referendum? Over two million signatures in one day!!!!!

petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215