but I defy anyone to produce a sensible, reasonable, 'take at face value' and believable explanation of current events in Europe.
Humans like patterns. They see them where they are not. They also like things that make them feel good about themselves. And they can be really quite selfish when it comes to that angle. So they cherry pick "stuff I like", call it "evidence" and deny til they are blue in the face that confirmation bias has played any role in their decision making process. The longer they do that, the greater the chance that the fallacy of sunk costs will play a role in their later decsions.
Thus they have a long history of bollocksing things up, having painted themselves into corners, with fingers in ears if anybody tries to point out the angley thing they are trapping themselves in.
Humans tend to like to justify what they got wrong, and blame somebody else for it.
Humans like to take credit for anything that goes right, and are less keen on recognising the extent to which dumb luck and coincidence sometimes plays a bigger role in sucess than their towering genius/good choices.
Our movers, shakers and leaders, no matter which sphere, regardless of geographical location, of all flavours, are not immune to the human condition.
Given our global history (and much of the present world) we should probably expect things to go bent more often than they go right. Going bent is our normal. Cos we are human and fucking things up is what we do.
We suck.
But we also do great stuff and impressive things, and huge leaps forward have been achieved.
So we shouldn't give up on trying to unfuck the fucked up as much as we can de-fuck it. Because we do get blips of relative peace and prosperity between the FuckUp period and Era BuggerEdUP
Just not sure we'll be well placed to tidy up the mess if distracted with scurrying around, checking behind the curtains for the shadowy people who control everything !.
It's tempting to think it's all a huge, deliberate conspiracy. Not least becuase it makes us seem more competent as a species than we actually are.
IMO