Basically, I find it hard to believe that any major historical events were the result of bungled decision making.
four, I wish the world was as well as you hope it is. I spend time in archives, photographing endless documents, which I then spend hours reading and from which I try to deduce what the blazes went on.
TLDR version: great historical events can be caused by a huge complex of factors, beyond long-term strategy or short-term bungling.
Example:
Read no further if you don't want a history lesson.
The fall of Singapore in 1942 was a pretty major historical event ('greatest ever defeat of British arms', 'a turning point in World War II' etc etc). It was caused by a whole mass of factors some of which include:
- Economic: money was tight so Britain was not willing to invest in the 'Singapore strategy' of naval defence for south-east Asia in the 1930s.
- Political: plenty of MPs didn't what whatever £££ were available to be spent on Singapore's naval base
- Incompetence/unwillingness to face the facts/admit things had changed: nobody thought up an alternative (bungling)
- Distraction: the outbreak of WWII in Europe meant nobody with a hand near the helm in London had the time/energy/money to think too hard about that far away colony, Singapore (Justifiable bungling)
- Lack of A Grade officials: All the really good military brass were busy in Europe and North Africa. Singapore and Malaya got General Percival. He was a nice man, with a conscience, but he had a complex about trench warfare, irregular warfare and fixed defences, so he did next to nothing to build defences in Malaya and Singapore. (People who bungled)
6: Misjudgement: Churchill et all did not seriously think that the Japanese would be stupid enough to go to war against Britain and America,when they were already tied up in China. They were stupid enough - or at least, the Japanese Army was. The Japanese Navy, not so much. (Bungling by both sides)
- Racism: It was widely thought in London that the Japanese would be rubbish fighters anyway, what with not being fine upstanding Anglo-Saxon types. How wrong they were. (Arrogance and stupidity)
So, with this one... I don't know. I think there's been bungling and grandstanding and virtue-signalling and innocence and stupidity, some of it driven by human compassion, some by an urge to make political capital. That said, will I surprised if something murky appears? No, not really.
Sorry, long post and rather off topic, but I think it's important to remember that simple explanations are rarely adequate explanations.
I will bore off now.