Quick Poll: EU stay or leave?

[BlueSmarties76]

Would you vote to stay or leave the EU?

Quick poll.

I'd like a proper explanation from someone who doesn't have an axe to grind (i.e. they are ideologically committed to one side or the other or their careers depend on a particular outcome).

Journalists should provide the answer, but do they? its as though everyone thinks the British public can only realise absorb a 10 second sound bite. I suspect that there are deep issues that will never be raised and everyone will be force fed a diet of passport control and visas (holidays to Europe and immigrants).

One thing i do not understand is why call the referendum in the summer, fi the EU won't ratify / not ratify until the late Autumn? Why not just give them until December and decide that if they haven't done it by then, then they are not going to??

Id imagine that it would be very very difficult impossible to find anyone sufficiently knowledgeable and without some sort of bias. There are pros and cons with the in out vote, and what side you are on will depend on what your priorities are. All we little people can do is try and digest as much information as we can and make up our minds based on that.

As has been said there are pros and cons to both. I don't understand why the debate is so polarised - a sensible debate would be nice.
For me the EEC model would be a good compromise but I don't feel strongly either way.

why call the referendum in the summer?

I've heard the main reason is that DC wants to get it done with before the main summer 'migration season' gets under way as people are far more likely to vote 'out' if they see another biblical exodus heading in this direction. If you recall, last year the really big numbers didn't start arriving until in Aug/Sept. Currently, for instance, there is no focus on the Med, despite the actually quite large numbers still arriving on Greek beaches daily (60,000 in Jan alone), and setting off on the walk to Germany.

I thought the refugees walked too, but apparently its trains with each country along the route eager to move them onto the next.

I read this description on another forum written yesterday by a man whose wife works as a translator for the Red Cross in Croatia:

She is working a week of night shifts and tells me that trains come non-stop from Serbia and disgorge about 800 people at a time for EU registration.
This is when the Red Cross, UNICEF and a host of others take the opportunity to help out a bit.
After the formalities, another train takes them non-stop to Slovenia where they are registered again before moving on the Austria.
It's like a sausage machine these days.
She tells me two to four trains a day (24 hours) are arriving and departing Slavonski Brod, so that's about 3,000 people per day. I believe this is the only route available through Croatia.

If Poland and the Eastern European countries veto the migrants benefits clause, and if France vetos the safeguarding guarantee of the City of London, will Cameron have the balls to recommend an exit? He would have realistically failed in his two main negotiation aims if those two clauses get veto'd in my opinion.

'if France vetos the safeguarding guarantee of the City of London, will Cameron have the balls to recommend an exit?'

He has no choice. He has to cross his fingers and hope that the media will sway the public.

The media will tear Cameron to pieces in the weekend papers if he does not get those two clauses. The EU are seemingly gambling on major companies to do their scaremongering on the UK public in the lead up to the referendum about potential job losses, etc. Either that or the EU seriously underestimate the public grievance with the EU.

'The media will tear Cameron to pieces in the weekend papers if he does not get those two clauses.'

It depends. I haven't been following UK media, because I am more interested in the US elections. The Guardian, the BBC and all the left leaning press will support moderniser Cameron. It all depends what the Daily Mail and the Sun do. I haven't been following them so I don't know what they will do. But you are right that they may go for the jugular.

It is interesting to see that Louise Mensch is all in for Brexit. That tells me that the Sun and Murdoch will possibly do the same.

The Establishment will be behind Cameron, the Guardian will bat for him, the BBC will do their best, but it may not be enough.

The Sun has been very much of a tone that the negotiations are a failure. The BBC has been very pro-EU.

' Either that or the EU seriously underestimate the public grievance with the EU.'

They fully understand the public mood and they are hoping that Project Fear will save them but it looks like there will be many leading figures on the political scene who will counter Project Fear. Given that no one believes spin anymore, it is going to be a very close battle. We may still win it.

'The Sun has been very much of a tone that the negotiations are a failure'

Good news. The BBC is as expected.

The Achilles Heel in the Out camp is splits within its different groupings. That is how the Establishment always work, they use divide and rule where they place stooges into the opposition camp and then create splits in the opposition that make them look like a shower to the public. It is a tried and tested technique.

There is just as much potential for splits within the In camp too with Cameron, Corbyn, SNP, Welsh Nats, etc, all attempting to sing from the same hymn sheet.

'with Cameron, Corbyn, SNP, Welsh Nats, etc'

I hope you are right celeste83, but there appear to be an awful lot of stooges in that list, so I am not as confident as you that they will split.

For the only way the In camp can win is if they do all unite on one stage.

'For the only way the In camp can win is if they do all unite on one stage.'

Yes. The other major problem they have got is that they are all the Establishment, the political class and the great and the good, and the people are a bit lukewarm about that lot. They will doubtless rope in as many slebs as they can find to "love bomb" the people, but the people may have had a surfeit of that lot. Interesting times!

Is Eddie Izzard available? They will need his best efforts without a doubt!

Fuck me it's the Establishment again (yawn)

"David Keighley: Big business and big broadcasting. How the establishment stitches up the Europe vote"

www.conservativewoman.co.uk/david-keighley-big-business-and-big-broadcasting-how-the-establishment-stitches-up-the-europe-vote/

I see the doom monger, otherwise known as the president of the Automobile Association, has pronounced that if we exit the EU, petrol costs could rise by 18.7p a litre within days.

In addition, in a 'worst case scenario', the value of the pound could tumble by 20 per cent if Britain leaves, at the same time oil prices – which are at a long-term low – could treble.

wow how long have oil prices been stagnating at the bottom? Suddenly, the day after we leave the EU, the price will immediately treble.

Yeah, right. I suggest he shuts up and concentrates on what he's supposed to be good at - fixing broken down cars.

"The Establishment" is splitting. Gove is apparently joining the 'out' campaign. Another incompetent next to IDS and Osbourne.

I've just been corrected on Osbourne, he's apparently in favour of staying in the EU. Hmmm. Might just be enough to make me change my mind by itself.

Wow, Gove is a big name. He is a very talented politician and could easily become Prime Minister if he wanted it. He does have lots of real conservative credentials along with a few "modernising" tendencies. Easily outclasses Cameron and that is a big blow to the Establishment.

Boris is now in trouble since Gove has had the courage to abandon the Establishment. If Boris wants to be leader, he may have to go for Brexit because being aligned with the Establishment is a losing strategy particularly now that Gove is on the other side.