Turkey has shot down a Russian jet

[Pantone363]

Apparently it violated their air space and ignored repeated warnings.

Tneconni, I said he goes over the top and gets thing wrong but he also does know a lot and does get things right too. You have to sort the wheat from the chaff using common sense. He is not BBC, he is the RealAlexJones.

The Alex Jones Show starts again for another 4 hours tonight live from Austin, Texas starting at 5 pm if your stomach can handle it.

Istanbulla - no worries. I haven't read the daily mail's thoughts on this, so it didn't occur to me that they might be the same. Actually, the idea that it may have an element of posturing in it did come from the media - from a report on Al Jezeera last night, not the DM.

I always find it interesting to hear what the other side says as it gives a lot of insight. Al Jezeera made constant references to Christian / European imperialism.

Breaking news in BBC website www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34925229

The surviving pilot says they were well inside Syrian airspace and that no warnings were received.

He would say that though, wouldn't he?

I don't think anyone will ever find out for sure what really happened. The pilot could be telling the truth, or then again the russians might have been showing Turkey the same level of respect they've showed the Uk several times in the last year when they invaded our airspace.

Its isn't worth shooting a plane down for though, is it?

About Nato: the difference between the Paris attacks and what happened in Turkey yesterday, is that yesterday was an incident between two countries whereas the Paris attacks was one country and a terrorist group. If Russia retaliates militarily, then Turkey could invoke the Nato alliance.

I hope it will stop here before things get out of hand.

It ought to be possible to establish what happened. All planes and their respective controllers would have voice comma which would be recorded. And that airspace is so heavily monitored, there should be evidence (from various sources) on that too.

But the longest anyone claims the plane was over Turkey was 17 seconds. So more info is needed on where the plane was in the 5 minutes they say the repeated warnings were given.

US says that the plane was over Turkey 'for a matter of seconds' (less than the 17?) and that a warning was given. Not exactly a ringing endorsement of the Turkish version. Nor the Russian.

If they received no warning why evacuate? Can they detect enemy quick enough?

There are systems that tell them when they have been illuminated by a missile system and when one is coming at you. That would trigger ejection, even if no warning was given.

Also the warning are (I think) along the lines of identify yourself, change flight path and leave the area or you will be engaged. Not telling them whether/when you actually fire.

DoctorTwo

"When Syria shot down a Turkish Phantom in 2012..."

Hmm, so there's history.

Thanks medtrina. So they presumably were parachuted up and were ejected automatically before being capable of responding to warnings?

I don't like Putin particularly, but I'm surprised at how restrained he's been over this matter - so far! Imagine if the Syrian Gov forces had shot down a U.S plane? Bloody hell...

To establish exactly what happened, you'd need access to tracking data which is owned by the Russians and the Turks, and therefore liable to interference before any 3rd party gets to look at it.

Syria seems so lawless, that its hard to imagine that it would be organised enough for something like that.

I agree though... 17 seconds, FGS! That's not long enough to give a warning even once. This would not be such a big deal if it were not for Turkey's membership of NATO. I hope there is something in the small print about membership becoming invalid if you try to provoke a war!

Putin is just planning. He is not going to do nothing.

Good points var Though we are of course only getting our side of this story.

According to the Hmeymim airfield radar, it was the Turkish fighter jet that actually entered Syrian airspace as it attacked the Russian bomber. Its a bit like the KLM airliner over Ukraine. The truth may sadly, never really be known.

The truth probably is known to all parties directly involved and all others who monitor that airspace.

And that's why, I think, there was that early comment about 'expect diplomatic fireworks' because it's reasonably likely that they'll want to deal with as much of this behind closed doors as possible.

I would never underestimate Putin's ruthlessness. And although much of the Russian military is bedevilled by underfunding/low morale etc (as mentioned earlier), that's not how things are for their elite units.

I just wonder if this whole incident wasn't really an error in command and control.

Lets say Turkey repeatedly warned the SU24 bomber to stay away from its border and put two F16 fighter jets up to ward it off just as the UK puts up planes to escort Russian 'Bear' aircraft away from our airspace.

Problem is that the F16 pilots may well have had a standing order to attack if the Russian jet crossed the border which it did very briefly and the F16 pilots following that standing order immediately launched their missiles which would have already locked on and be armed for firing.

The two F16 planes were upgraded 7 months ago and a lone and quite old SU24 bomber was no match at all. The Russian pilots would have known this and would had to have been extremely foolish to deliberately threaten with two F16s tailing them.

My feeling is there is a high probability this was a 'mistake' and both sides know that which is why it isn't being escalated. Closer cooperation and better air traffic control protocols are probably what is required.

'My feeling is there is a high probability this was a 'mistake' and both sides know that which is why it isn't being escalated.'

I doubt it because you have to look at the language the Russians have used "stabbed in the back by accomplices of terrorists" and the fact that the Turks have not said it was a mistake and have said they warned Russia and were within their rights whereas Russia says that the plane was not in Turkish airspace. Putin also said that the Turks did not contact Russia after the shootdown but got straight onto NATO etc.

It is very serious but Putin always acts in a measured way like this as he weihs up the chess moves. The Russians have called it a "pre-planned provocation" and they therefore know what the objective was i.e. to draw them in to react against the provocation and that is why Putin will do the opposite.

But as meditrina says, Putin is ruthless will react eventually but it is likely to be done in a not obvious way.

I think the key phrase Putin used was "accomplices of terrorists" and I suspect that Putin will reveal who is involved in aiding the terrorists and there may be legal penalties for them.

Lavrov said

"We have serious doubts about this being an unpremeditated act, it really looks like a planned provocation," Lavrov said at a press conference in Moscow on Wednesday.
...
"Our attitude to the Turkish people has not changed. We have questions over the action of Turkey's current leadership," he said."

www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/11/russia-war-turkey-planned-provocation-151125134605630.html

Alex Jones has got articles up saying that Erdogan's son is profiting from oil sales from Isis. I don't know if that is true, but I think the Russians will reveal who is profiting.

What threat could a fighter jet that close to the border possibly impose?

The threat is that, apparently, the Russians have been bombing Turkmen inside Turkey as well.
This will have been to show that such bombings won't be tolerated any longer (as well as possibly of Turkmen outside of Turkey). Russia was supposed to be fighting ISIS, not moderated groups against Assad...

Putin may call everyone's bluff by revealing who runs Isis and who is helping them and he may take it to UN legal courts etc and then anyone who opposes legal sanctions will be exposed as "accomplices of terrorists".

'The threat is that, apparently, the Russians have been bombing Turkmen inside Turkey as well. '

Have you got a link to that? Surely that would be an act of war against Turkey and could justify Turkey invoking Article 5 of the NATO treaty?

'as well as possibly of Turkmen outside of Turkey'

Yes I think it was Turkey's red line warning to Russia about bombing the Turkmen in Syria. Today's Channel 4 News showed Russia bombing in Syria just kilometres from the Turkish border for what Russians said is illegal oil convoys and for what the local Turkmen said is food supplies.

Can't link now. It was something I read when the plane first went down (hence the "apparently").

"Russia was supposed to be fighting ISIS, not moderated groups against Assad..."

Russia wants Assad in power and wants nether rebels nor ISIS in power.

Syria has been a long term ally of the Soviet Union and then Russia. Russia enjoys access to its ports for its warships. Russia has always had strategic interest in having access to warm water ports for its navy that is otherwise locked in by ice in winter.

If Putin has evidence of who runs Isis and who is helping them and if he makes it public then France will have to act on it because the French people will demand that of Hollande. Hollande is in Moscow tomorrow to meet Putin.

I do hope he calls the bluff, then, and I hope Trump is one of the backers.

I suspect there will be a huge network will involved (with arms trading as well). Nobody will have completely clean hands. although I still think Putin is financing them in an evil plan