Greece part II

[Hullygully]

I would be very grateful if we could keep this about Greece, and those (two) who want to dance up and down jibing at Claig and calling her a fool and a kremlinbot and an anti-semite, start their own thread for that purpose.

Cheers

Thanks Claig. What's going to happen next. I heard the meeting of the EU leaders is cancelled while this other meeting carries on trying to reach a deal.

Viviennemary, my analysis could be wrong. I can only guess. I think Greece will remain in the Eurozone (because France and the US want that), austerity will continue (because the bankers and every capitalist wants that so that they can take all of Greece's assets at bargain prices) and Germany will have to cough up some debt relief (because the US wants that), and the elites who want the EU project to be taught a lesson will then have set a precedent that will spread to Podemos in Spain.

In the real longterm, the EU project is likely to fail. As Nigel Lawson says, it is unlikely to happen yet, but it will happen one day. All of Europe has seen what Nigel Lawson called "the Eurozone's contempt for democracy" and that can't go on forever.

Lawson says

"My fear is that he [Cameron] will not seize this opportunity, but will join the chorus of support for maintaining the eurozone intact – for the time being, at any rate.

I profoundly hope I am wrong."

Guy Verhofstadt, who is about as Establishment and metropolitan as it gets, who jumps up and down with glee in the EU Parliament when telling Tsipras he has to do austerity, and who opposes the leader of the People's Army, has just said that he is hearing there will be a deal where Greece stays in.

But he also told us what I have said will be the EU elite's next trick, that they will now have to rush for closer union with a European Treasury, or he says the Euro is over and we will have to return to national currencies. Now the game enters the end phase. All of the PPEs, Establishment, elites etc vs the people and the People's Army. They think they will call our bluff, but we will have to wait and see what the US elites really think and whose side they will be on.

An article from Britain's greatest real Conservative commentator, Peter Hichens, on Varoufakis, Jeremy Corbyn, the EU etc

It explains why many in the People's Army support Varoufakis and Thatcher, Jeremy Corbyn and Farage and above all the people against the elites.

"Farewell to fiery Yanis, a reminder of how politics ought to be

There’s something enjoyably piratical and breezy about the ousted Greek finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, riding off on his motorbike with his lovely wife for a post-resignation beer.

These scenes, and Mr Varoufakis’s general irreverent and non-servile behaviour, remind me of what I once found attractive about politics.

It’s also worth noting that the Syriza government in Athens has pretty much done what it promised voters it would do, and has fought its corner with nerve and style, and with a fair bit of the patriotic feeling that has been missing from British politics for quite a while.

Perhaps it’s time for me to change sides again. It’s a joy to see Europe’s Leftists, from Guardian writers to Greek politicians, finally realising that the European Union is a German-dominated imperial bully.

Maybe conservative patriots should now infiltrate the Left, its media and its political parties. There’s more future there than there is in the dehumanised, passionless, corporate wastes of Cameronism.

It’s quite obvious that the Left-wing candidate for the Labour leadership, Jeremy Corbyn, is a principled and uncorrupted real human, quite unlike the bland cybermen and cyberwomen he is standing against, whoever they are. I hope he wins, not because I think he’s a loser but because it would be good to have someone in front-rank politics who knows what he fights for and loves what he knows, as Englishmen are supposed to do.

A combination of fiery Leftism and Ukip-type patriotism could be the very thing to sweep away the So-Called Conservative Party which represents nothing except the careers of its MPs and the interests of its donors.

In Greece, an alliance of Leftism and patriotism demolished the rich established parties in months. I’ve wasted years trying to do it the other way. Well, the last time I owned a motorbike, it ended badly, but I’m thinking of getting another one.

www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3157839/PETER-HITCHENS-ve-destroyed-Sunday-just-needed-most.html

Y U keep linking to the wrong Hitchens brother?

Germany and the Troika are undermining democracy. They've already managed to remove one of the world's top economists, next they want to remove Syriza and replace them with technocrats who they can bend to their will. They know a Grexit will be followed by Frexit, Spexit etc. The French economy is on its uppers. In fact, just about the only economy to benefit from the Euro is Germany, as its exports are around 30% cheaper than they would be.

I was listening to an interview with Jim Rogers earlier and he said that if the can is kicked down the road he's going to sit on his hands, but if Greece leaves the Eurozone he'll buy Euros. Gave me a right good chuckle that did, as well as some lost respect points for Jim.

I want to see Yanis on the Keiser Report. Yanis, Max, Steve Keen, Reggie Middleton and Stacy Herbert in an hour long special.

'I want to see Yanis on the Keiser Report.'

Yanis Varoufakis is wanted on everyone's chat show on the planet at the moment. He can name his own price. Oxbridge and every other university on the planet are probably asking him too be a Professor there. He's a legend, almost in the same league as Farage himself!

Who is Reggie Middleton?

The only Reggie I have heard of is Reggie Kray, but I am not a fan of his type of economics, too much like the EU elite's. Reggie is known as the brains behind austerity.

You've never heard of Reggie Middleton? And you call yourself a fan of Max Keiser?

I looked him up. I can't remember seeing him. I don't watch every episode of Keiser, just now and then.

On the topic of who would be nicer creditors than the EU -- I can't imagine worse.

Interview with Professor James K. Galbraith, a friend of Varoufakis

"Greek Revolt Threatens Entire Neoliberal Project
...
LP: Is the austerity doctrine — which has been widely discredited by economists — under serious threat?

JG: It is definitely under threat from an increasingly emboldened political movement across Europe — certainly in Spain, certainly in Ireland, probably in Portugal, Italy, and France. So the answer is yes. This is what terrifies the European elites about the Greek situation. What Syriza did was to wipe out — and the referendum completed the job — the leadership of the previous sort of condominium of governing parties, which were a neoliberal conservative party and a neoliberlized social party. Now what do you find in the rest of Europe? Look at Germany, look at France. You find exactly the same thing. And of course, the elites in those countries fear the same phenomenon. So what we’re seeing is an allergic reaction to what they regard as a political threat of the first order."

www.alternet.org/economy/james-galbraith-greek-revolt-threatens-entire-neoliberal-project

Radio 4 Analysis is on at 20.30 tonight on Populism, billed as the people challenging the elites. Who are the people and will populism mean more democracy or the end of it? On the panel are Professor Vernon Bogdanor, one of Cameron's old PPE professors and Peter Oborne.

www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b061qhtf

James K Galbraith on the role of the French in all of this. Everyone thinks it is the Germans, but the French were responsible for a lot of what happened. Now they are "helping" the Greeks, but it is too late now.

"The original crime in the Greek affair, Legrain said, was committed in May 2010, when it became clear that the country was insolvent. At that time, the IMF staff was convinced that Greek debts must be restructured, and that debt relief was not only necessary but also just, given that reckless borrowers are always matched to reckless lenders, and that lenders are compensated, in part, for the risk of loss.

Restructuring did not happen. Instead, a trio of Frenchmen — at the IMF, at the European Central Bank and at the Elysée, and backed by Angela Merkel — decided to pretend that Greece’s problem was merely temporary, that there was a larger financial crisis to be warded off, and that the largest bailout in history should be directed not to save Greece, but to off-load the exposure of French and German banks onto all the European states, with Germany’s taxpayers taking the largest share.

Why did the IMF get into the act, making its largest loan in history (32 times Greece’s quota) over the reservations of its staff and the objections of many non-European members? Because the Managing Director at the time, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, wanted to become President of France."
...
Sympathetic American readers have become used to seeing Germany, the Germans, their Chancellor Angela Merkel, and her finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble as the villains in this drama. They have underestimated the half-hidden role of the Rasputins of Paris. And also that of the Svengali of Frankfurt, Mario Draghi, who as I write rumbles threats to the Greek banking system. These are threats that may, in the next few days, unleash the very avalanche that Draghi once promised to do whatever it takes to prevent."

www.socialeurope.eu/2015/06/bad-faith-why-real-debt-relief-is-not-on-the-table-for-greece/

The Greeks have a deal to be ratified by the Greek parliament by Wednesday FAR WORSE in terms of reducing Greek pensions etc than the one the Greek's democratically rejected - totally betraying the Greek people based on the Referendum he called for - but in return will get some Greek debt relief that if DOES NOT include debt write off, will be seen as a failure.

Syriza/Tsipras's Marxist pee balling about for the past several months assuming the democracies of 18 other Eurozone countries were less important than the debtor one in Greece has reduced Greek growth and mullahed the Greek banks and many Greek businesses, making the recovery harder to achieve.

If Cubas Fidel Castro was alive with his economic country model that has been so successful for decades (not), he could NOT have made more of a pigs ear out of negotiations on behalf of his people, than Tsipras.

From the start the PROBLEM was that the Greeks had an unbalanced economy with excessive debt that anyone with a basic understanding of how a SUSTAINABLE economy works, realised could NOT have had more money/debt thrown at it to achieve a good outcome, not just for the creditor citizens, but for the Greeks themselves.

Tsipras held up as hero for pages here and elsewhere, promised so much but clearly based on this package has made matters far worse for the people/economy of Greece, so once he gets this through his parliament he has to resign - which will also help the citizens of the other 18 countries FOOTING THE GREEK'S 3RD BAILOUT, sleep easier.

P.S. The Estonian P.M. on Sky has just said, the main problem was the Greek country economic model was not sustainable, so 'reforms' Greece has to undertake is not JUST for the Eurozone creditors, but for the future of Greece itself.

EVERY citizen of the world would love not to pay their taxes, retire early with great pensions etc etc etc and not need a thriving Private Sector to fund it all, but that is not how sustainable economies work; the Greek governments wanted to maintain a populist lifestyle, but not have the means to pay for it.

Claig - although I think there's a glimmer of truth of some of the things you're talking about (i.e. Germany & France did profit from Greek debt...but had Greeks actually used the money for what it was supposed to be used for they would be much better off now), you seem to think that democracy is only democracy when the people want what you want.

Germans want harsh bailout terms? So mean & undemocratic. Greeks want to be able to pay better pensions than the Germans and retire at 50? Well that's democracy, so we should all just lie down and give Greece whatever they want.

The problem with Greek democracy is that they want to extract more money from other democracies, the voters of whom are not at all pleased with giving Greece another blank cheque.

You think this crisis is only explained by unnamed shadowy elites pulling strings. I think it is entirely and easily explained by the democratic wills of different countries. Germany is cracking down because its voters don't want to pay taxes so Greeks can retire at 50. France is being less harsh because their electorate has always been more starry eyed about the European project.

No one forced the Greek state to get into debt. No one forced the Greeks to hide the scale of their debt when they entered the Eurozone. No one forced the Greeks to pay hugely generous social benefits that they couldn't afford.

Tsipras' ploy has failed, catastrophically. No one in Podemos is going to look at Greek capitulation and think "wow, what a great way to handle a debt crisis".

Isitmebut - exactly - in some ways the reforms that are being introduced would never have happened without a crisis. Greeks are putting the blame everywhere but their own country.

If the country has an unsustainable economic model, but that's what its people wants, then it should not be part of mechanisms that force a choice between continued membership and the democratic will of the people. Other members of that club (if they give any kind of shit about democracy) should be supporting it back to independence so it can cock up in its own and NOT, as has happened in Greece, offering more and more authoritarian and undemocratically terms on which it gets to stay.

Incidentally did anyone spot the detail that those 50bn in Greek assets to beheld by an 'independent trust'? Turns out the chairman of the trust is none other than Wolfgang Schaüble Independent my arse.

If there's one good thing that can be salvaged from this whole sorry mess I hope it's that all those Guardian types who've been busy stereotyping eurosceptics as frothing Little Englanders finally wake up to what we've been saying for years: that far from being a fluffy haven of multilingual tolerance and human rights and general lefty loveliness the EU is an anti-democratic stitch-up run in the interests of banks and big business. The evidence is right in front of everyone and I just pray it filters through the population at large in time for the referendum here.

What is clear coming out of this meeting is that far from being Germany as the main sticking point, several countries were playing Greek hard ball, especially those that have TAKEN the debt relief programme and coming out the other side and smaller countries without the proverbial money 'pot' to go in themselves, getting the Tsipras terms through their own parliament.

The new Greek Euro 50 bil(?) fund of Greek collateral to keep lenders happy, will be a DIRECT result of several months Syriza/Tsipras shenanigans showing that as a debtor counterparty, the Greek government could not be trusted to honour ANY terms they signed up for - and this will protect the 18-country lenders should a future Greek government AGAIN look to 'default' of the Greeks debts.

The real choice facing Greece (as any nation in the EU) is between EU membership and democratic national self-rule. But that is one referendum that will never, ever be called anywhere for the simple fact that too many people have a vested interest in making sure the choice never gets spelled out, let alone put to the vote, as they are afraid of what the peoples of Europe actually think. As Brecht put it, they'd rather dissolve the people and elect another one.

Manatee - you're completely right. Greece could have made the decision to leave at any time.

But they didn't.

Their people wanted to stay in the Euro & also keep their (higher than Germany!) pensions.

But those two wills are incompatible, because one relies on the democratic wills of all the other Eurozone countries.

Again, why oh why doesn't the democratic will of all the other Eurozone countries count?! Because they don't agree with your conclusions?

Actually 75% of Greeks want to stay in the Eurozone, let alone the EU, Manatee.

Alyosha, I quote from Professor James K Galbraith's article

"The original crime in the Greek affair, Legrain said, was committed in May 2010, when it became clear that the country was insolvent."

The greek people were stiched up, swindled and stung by a bunch of elite politician and bankers from france and Germany and their own corrupt Greek elite political class. When they had their own sovereign currency, they never were in the mess they are in now. When their corrupt elites and the European corrupt elites swindled the country for their own benefit, they landed the Greek people in this mess.

National sovereign governments should be allowed to make their own independent economic policies and not have to submit to a European-wide banker-led austerity that leads to the destruction of an economy and the suicides of tens of thousands of people.

'Germany is cracking down because its voters don't want to pay taxes so Greeks can retire at 50'

Then why is Germany signing up to another 70-90 billion bailout, when a German aide to Tsipras has said that the Greeks can't be trusted. How long do you think this will last? What if another non-establishment party wins their next election?

'France is being less harsh because their electorate has always been more starry eyed about the European project.'

The French people voted "No" against the Lisbon treaty and were forced to vote again. Le Pen is on 25% in the polls and won the EU elections. elites ignore the popular will. As Nigel Lawson said we have seen "the Eurozone's contempt for democracy.

'No one forced the Greek state to get into debt. '

They were swindled by an elite class of bankers and politicians.

'No one in Podemos is going to look at Greek capitulation and think "wow, what a great way to handle a debt crisis".'

Syriza had no option but to lose on austerity because they and the Greek people did not want to leave the Euro. But they will win debt relief. We are still not being given the details of that but it will come out when the elite ope that we have all moved on and forgotten about it. Podemos will notice it.

I quote from Professor james K Galbraith about the symbolic significance of what Syriza has achieved

"This is what terrifies the European elites about the Greek situation.
...
And of course, the elites in those countries [France and Germany] fear the same phenomenon. So what we’re seeing is an allergic reaction to what they regard as a political threat of the first order."

All across Europe we are seeing the people challenging the elites.

The EU was always seen as a 'leftie' safe haven and they are rubbish maintaining sustainable economies, so luvved the idea of a 19 State 'collective' of socialist drones bailing them out each time, competing economically with China, in a downward spiral that was OK as everyone in Europe would be in the same boat.

Greece got away with it so long because global interest rates were at a record low and the world were in the middle of a debt induced boom, right before the debt induced bust - and THAT was when reality hit home, that the EU was a fair weather project as was.

Banks should have been regulated better by the governments that took over their debts through lending to anything with a pulse, so every which way, many Western government directly or indirectly, in or out of the EU, were responsible for the financial crisis - and if ANYTHING the lesson to lefties is the absolute need for a country to pay its way and NOT rely on bank/national debt to provide their citizens with unsustainable/unaffordable populist spending - as there but for the grace of god.....

www.nationaldebtclock.co.uk/

claig ... you can quote a gaggle of demi-gods if you like, THE RESULTS AND CONSEQUENCES shows that Syriza/Tsipras fecked up - so any gushing praise before hand, is a nonsense.

Wake up to the FACTS, the people of Greece are.

The Germans bluffed with their "square bracket" temporary exit for Greece. This is how the game is played. It is passed to the media who then spin it to the people. They still haven't told us about the debt restructuring. This is how the game is played. It will all come out in the wash.

Syriza challenged them and they fear it may spread.

"This is what terrifies the European elites about the Greek situation."

One of their aides said the Greeks can't be trusted and yet they have still done a deal for another bailout of billions of European taxpayer money to kick the can down the road and try to save their union.

Now in their fright, they will try to rush through more overriding of sovereignty and democracy, but they will fail because the people are challenging the elites.

'National Governments Can't Be Trusted: Barroso Calls for More Power for EU Institutions'

www.spiegel.de/international/europe/national-governments-can-t-be-trusted-barroso-calls-for-more-power-for-eu-institutions-a-789300.html

"Tony Blair accused of patronising the public by suggesting they cannot be trusted to make the 'sensible choice' on staying in EU

...
Mr Blair, who is pro-European and does not think a referendum should be held, said the emotions that such a vote would whip up across Britain would be similar to those felt during the debate over Scottish independence, which he was also against."

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/tony-blair-accused-of-patronising-the-public-by-suggesting-they-cannot-be-trusted-to-make-the-sensible-choice-on-staying-in-eu-10160701.html

Again with the inaccurate sole German blame.

Within the 18 contributor Eurozone the majority of countries have their own disaffected citizens unhappy trying to get their own country’s debts under control, and now have effective left/right wing opposition parties.

And while it is clear that throwing more money at a Greek money pit WOULD have emboldened those ‘anti austerity’ parties within the other 18 member States, those countries HAVE austerity for a reason and it ain’t because they have spare ‘money pit’ cash of their own to throw at Greece who’s OWN politicians for years have let them down so badly.

In conclusion; Whether looking at the Greek country credit worthiness situation, their own political problems, or the financial 'Greek is Good' standards of massive debt as an EU model, IT WAS IN THE INTERESTS OF EVERY EUROZONE MEMBER to play hard ball with a Greece being led by shifty, gobby, Marxist politicians.

I think this is a big mistake and the house of cards will all fall down. It will be impossible to impose those changes on the Greeks. IMHO. They will just carry on the way they've always done. And I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised if an election is called in a few months and they overturn everything. How can anything they say be believable after that fiasco of a referendum. Greece can't stay in the Euro. I agree with what Nigel Lawson said the other day. He seems the only one who is seeing sense.