Tory MP Mark Reckless defects to UKIP

[claig]

Panic in elite circles

John Harris of the Guardian is one of the best journalists out there who gets close to understanding the UKIP phenomenon. However, he does put too much emphasis on the "left behind" voter theory of the academics who wrote the book on UKIP. That is partly true but is not the main reason for UKIP's success. But John Harris does touch on the main reason, which most academics don't really understand and can't understand because they don't think like many ordinary people - it is "cultural" and anti "political correctness" and that is why the politically correct politicians have no answer to it or no real understanding of where it stems from.

"Farage and the UK Independence Party: the death of Ukip has been greatly exaggerated

Last week a Guardian Live audience debated the future of Ukip and discussed how far the party could go. John Harris says the idea of peak Ukip is fantasy, and we’re a long way off it yet"
...
"When stories emerge of some of Ukip’s more unsavoury elements, or the particularly stupid behaviour on the part of some its elected representatives, it has precious little effect on their support. The reason for this is simple: supporting Ukip is essentially an act of defiance and a hostile media is one of the forces Ukip’s most enthusiastic fans think they are resisting. Indeed, the place of the media in this story shows the rise of Ukip to be as much a cultural phenomenon as a political one.

Tellingly, a lot of Ukip supporters defiantly describe themselves as “English”, a deep, complex identity that transcends the dry stuff of elections and voting behaviour. At its core is a latent anger about snobbery and the supposed sidelining of the white working class, and antipathy towards most things considered “politically correct”, which can explode in response to stories and events that are said to fit that basic narrative. This is why, in the face of fierce criticism, Ukip have been campaigning on the issue of child sexual exploitation in such northern towns as Rochdale and Rotherham.
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As part of the peak Ukip hypothesis, there has long been a political-class theory that in May next year, people will somehow wake up to the idea that the general election is a Tory versus Labour/Cameron versus Miliband contest, and move away from Ukip. That may well apply to some voters, but there again, some polls have suggested that about half of Ukip’s voters are likely to stay put, and if Farage performs well in a TV debate, this number could go through the roof. Remember: if culture is as central to all this as conventional politics, the usual rules will not apply.
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But make no mistake, Ukip’s support now runs deep and wide, the public’s faith in mainstream politics shows no signs of any revival and through 2015 and beyond, what Nigel Farage calls his “people’s army” is hardly likely to go away."

www.theguardian.com/membership/2014/nov/11/farage-and-the-uk-independence-party-the-death-of-ukip-has-been-greatly-exaggerated

Another report detailing the extent of the disaster of Rochester for the Tories. They thought they would win. They thought the people were modernisers. They have had to think again.

"Lord Ashcroft’s poll on the Rochester and Strood by-election won’t surprise many Conservatives. They’ve been expecting defeat by Ukip there for weeks now.

While that expectation is widespread, it doesn’t mean that defeat would not be an extraordinary outcome. Barely a month ago, Conservatives gathered in Birmingham and reacted to news of Mark Reckless’s defection with a near-unanimous certainty: they were going to crush their former colleague like a bug, the wheels of the Tory juggernaut rolling over Ukip without slowing.

That confidence wasn’t just down to good champagne at conference. Back in Westminster, Lynton Crosby assured Tory MPs that Rochester wasn’t Clacton: its voters were younger, better educated, more metropolitan. And Mr Reckless was not Douglas Carswell, either.

Just to be sure, Tory high command decided to go long in Rochester, pushing the vote back into darkest November, allowing weeks of intense bombardment from the Tory big guns. Ministers and MPs would visit daily. RoadTrip2015 would bus in hundreds of cheery Conservative activists. The puny Ukip insurgency would be smashed by the Conservative big battalions.

All that is worth remembering when you read a poll showing UKIP 44 vs CON 32. Tory hubris has evidently angered the electoral gods, or at least the voters of Rochester.

That alone should bother Conservatives, but there are two particular details of the Ashcroft poll that should really haunt their dreams."

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11223928/Ukip-success-in-Rochester-wont-surprise-the-Tories.-But-it-should-terrify-them.html

Pixel ..... re Pensions, you are showing your ignorance on the severe damage done by Labour on;*

Private Pensions, Private Final Salary Company Pensions, the derisory increases in State Pensions during a time of £££plenty - and the state of the States finances re the ability to FUND the state pensions for a population living longer.

If you want to see the pension facts instead of sneer at responsible governance, then please let me know and I'll give them to you.

And that is the difference between the Conservative coalition and UKIP, the Conservatives FIX the nations problems, UKIP just whinge and offer Farage fairy dust OR LABOUR BACK IN AGAIN to solve the nations problems.

“Farage backs Miliband for PM; UKIP wants Labour to win the next General Election because it fears Cameron could win an EU Referendum.”
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2793688/farage-backs-miliband-ukip-want-labour-win-election-fear-cameron-win-eu-referendum.html

• Ukip have conceded privately they would prefer Labour to win next election

• Party thinks a PM Miliband less likely to win a referendum than Cameron

• Ukip claims it now poses an equal threat to Labour and Conservative

• But pollsters say a Ukip surge is likely to hand Labour victory over Tories

Please do not accuse other posters of ignorance when the stuff you come out with is only worthy of the prattle of a senior moderniser at CCHQ, the musings of a student union Tory modernisation activist and the thoughts of a first-year student of PPE.

Claig .... AGAIN with the "prattle" and false accusations, that refuses to see the UKIP 'modernizing' - how of Dave's green earth can you post that shite when after 21-years, apart from the EU/immigration that can only be fixed by a UK referendum UKIP don't want - YOU still don't know after 21-years what UKIP STANDS FOR, as it is either changes for who UKIP is targeting, or wiped off your website altogether????lol

“UKIP leader Nigel Farage has disowned the party's entire (2010) general election manifesto - which he helped launch - branding it "drivel”.
news.sky.com/story/1200525/nigel-farage-disowns-ukip-manifesto-as-drivel

“UKIP spokesman Michael Heaver confirmed that the party’s 2010 election manifesto had been removed. While the party now opposes the planned high-speed north-south rail line, the 2010 document advocated building three new routes. “We’re in the process of updating everything,” Heaver said by telephone. “We’re going through a policy review.”
www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-15/u-k-parties-prepare-for-2015-by-erasing-web-histories.html

“Both these are outdone by the U.K. Independence Party, which has no record of any speeches made before March this year. The earliest news item is leader Nigel Farage’s New Year 2013 message."

Nick Cohen in the Spectator on Cameron begging Labour, LibDem and Green and other voters to save the modernisers from the fate that awaits them in Rochester where Farage is tearing up their lawns and doing wheelies outside their HQ.

"Ukip’s puppet David Cameron cuts a pathetic figure"

"Faced with losing yet another by-election, the Prime Minister is telling Labour and Liberal Democrat voters that they (we) should vote Conservative to stop Ukip in Rochester and – presumably – in every seat in Britain where Ukip is a contender come May."
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Cameron won’t move to make Britain fairer, or to help those who are being squeezed half to death in the housing and rental markets, or to combat racism, or to defend basic freedoms, or to reach a compromise in Europe because he is the plaything of Ukip and his own backbenchers: the most humiliated prime minister of my lifetime.

As Alex Massie of the Spectator wrote the other day his slogan comes down to the cry: UKIP ARE RIGHT. DON’T VOTE FOR THEM."

blogs.spectator.co.uk/nick-cohen/2014/11/ukips-puppet-david-cameron-cuts-a-pathetic-figure/

Claig … as to ‘the Cult of Farage you call “the UKIP phenomenon” and the “disaster of Rochester for the Tories”.
The UKIP far right ‘revolutionaries’ will unfortunately have their by-election day in Rochester, and why not, but in 2015 they will have to decide if it is worth RISKING everything the ‘Westminster elite’ they are poaching their MP’s from, has achieved.

(Nov 12th) UK Unemployment Stays at 6% as Wage Growth Accelerates.
www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-12/u-k-unemployment-stays-at-6-as-wage-growth-accelerates.html

“Unemployment fell by 115,000 to 1.96 million, marking the smallest decline since the three months to February, while the number of people in work climbed 112,000 to 30.8 million.”

”Excluding bonuses, pay growth accelerated 0.4 percentage point to 1.3 percent, beating consumer-price inflation for the first time since September 2009, the ONS said. Inflation stands at 1.2 percent.”

According to the ONS this is the 18th consecutive fall in UK unemployment, and the HIGHEST number in employment since records began in 1971.

And why should the Conservative coalition be proud of a 6% UK unemployment rate?

”European unemployment crisis”
www.economicshelp.org/blog/1247/economics/european-unemployment-2/

• Unemployment rate in the Eurozone area: 11.5% (July 2014)
• EU-28 Unemployment is slightly lower at 10.2% (July 2014)
• Total unemployment in the EU-28 is 24.850 million (July 2014)
• The Eurozone (EA-18) jobless total is now 18.409 million. (link) The highest since records began.
• Youth unemployment rates in the EU 27 is 21.8% (July 2014)
• The lowest unemployment rates are in Austria (4.9 %) and Germany (4.9 %). The highest rates are in Greece (27.2 % in January 2014) and Spain (24.5 %).

Rod Liddle on the Rochester candidates' debate

"So – the Rochester and Strood by-election next Thursday. Who will win? I’ve been there a few times recently and my guess, from a feeling in my water, is that it will be Ukip by about ten thou. Good, I suppose. That will shake them all up a bit more, no?

Last night, I watched the main candidates in debate on a BBC Newsroom South East (or whatever it’s called) special programme hosted with some acuity by Polly Evans, in front of the most left wing audience the BBC could cobble together at short notice. Christ help us, what a shower.

The best, by a million miles, was Labour’s Naushabah Khan – unruffled, articulate, competent. Mark Reckless – Ukip’s lauded defectee – was disingenuous and evasive and possessed of all of the charisma and warmth of a caravan site on the Isle of Sheppey in late February. But at least he made sense when he spoke.

The Tory candidate, Kelly Tolhurst, was utterly useless on a rather epic level, unable to string a single sentence together. The Lib Dem bloke look like he’d been constructed out of flour and water by a class of remedial six year olds and made no sense at all.

The Green was ineffective and fabulously loathsome, with his sideburns and white poppy and endless sanctimony – an ageing Russell Brand without even his very limited wit, humour and articulacy.

Sheesh. Poor Rochester. Still – Ukip first, Tories second, Labour a sad and distant third."

blogs.spectator.co.uk/rod-liddle/2014/11/ive-just-seen-the-rochester-candidates-debate-poor-rochester/

Claig …. You see the the UKIP ‘anti politics’ movement is being seen across Europe, UKIP really are nothing different, other than while in Europe they are trying to oust a clueless EU/home government TALKING about economic growth and new jobs - while in the UK, the ever ‘talking’ Farage/UKIP movement, is trying to oust the Conservative Party PROVIDING economic growth, jobs and other solutions to the problems they inherited.

"A grave moment for France': National Front sweeps to victory in Paris leaving Socialist government fighting for life - and in Germany a neo-Nazi is elected for first time in decades”

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2638965/Massive-victory-French-far-right-National-Front-record-quarter-vote-Euro-elections.html

• FN leader Marine Le Pen heralded victory for 'sovereign people of France'
• Results so far guarantee FN around a third of France's 74 seats
• Prime Minister Manuel Valls described result as 'a shock, an earthquake'
• President Francois Hollande holds 'urgent' talks with ministers after poll
• Germany faces having first far-Right candidate in decades
• Anti-Islamic party wins more than a quarter of vote in Denmark
• Radical left and far-Right in Greece both perform well
• Beppe Grillo's Five Star movement beaten into second place in Italy

“Right-wing parties also gained ground in Austria, Demark and Greece, early poll results suggested.”

“German chancellor Angela Merkel said the rise of right-wing groups was 'remarkable and regrettable' and called for policies that could create jobs and improve competitiveness”

Europe's problem is that THEY cannot create jobs, hence 'the people' are revolting by joining far right groups.

So UKIP will again have their by-election day, with a ‘purple’ re-labelling of a SITTING Conservative MP that the constituency voters trust.

*But come the General Election, they will look at what has been achieved - over the higher Labour debt/taxes what-could-have-been - and vote using their brain on the tried and tested, over the ‘Westminster elite’ that failed over a 13-year term, and the no experience wannabes.

As when they look around at the UK choices i.e. Labour and UKIP, and glance across the channel at a stagnant, high unemployment Europe that breeds (often) nasty right wing cults, history shows us end up being just politically and socially destructive – and think ‘why sacrifice what we have’, stick with the man with a long term plan, rather than the no substance ‘magic dust’ alternatives?

're-labelling of a SITTING Conservative MP that the constituency voters trust.'

Don't you get it? Are you reading scripts frrom CCHQ? Are you reading briefings and baloney from modernisers with PPEs and knighthoods?

The public don't trust any of them, unless they are UKIP. It's as simple as that. It's over, the people have had enough.

Hmmmm … you don’t have to read from any CCHQ scripts to SEE the bleedin’ obvious, maybe Ukipper HQ should break it to you, _Reckless wasn’t ‘home grown’.- Lol

“The public don’t trust any of them” because they have Farage’s minions on social media and posting through letter boxes, lumping them all together for UKIP propaganda purposes TELLING THEM NOT TO TRUST THEM – as per that leaflet I mentioned on the last page (and repeated below) _listing THESE UKIP focus issues as a reason to “Sweep away the political class”.

• Ruinous Middle East wars that made matters worse, not better.
• Appalling neglect and abuse of children in Rotherham, Rochdale, Oxford and elsewhere.
• Innocent, caring parents imprisoned under a European Arrest Warrant.
• Open borders for convicted murderers from Europe to come in and out.
• Another wave of migrants at Calais, desperate to reach our benefits system.
• And they made a total hash of the Scottish Independence debate.

Clearly the above list, not jobs are more important to the UKIP faithful, but in government ALL THE UK's CURRENT PROBLEMS REMAIN, just swapping experienced ministers bringing in results, for rank (with an ‘r’) UKIP amateur and political wanabees, that have achieved NOTHING in office, so can only go one way on a scale between PANTS and DISASTER.

P.S. BTW re your last post, you really have education and class ‘issues’, over policy substance/results before you, the perfect ‘’kipper revolutionary – I hope you get mentioned in UKIP propaganda dispatches every day.

'Reckless wasn’t ‘home grown’

Didn't you read what Rod Liddle said in the Spectator. If you think ordinary people think Reckless and Carswell are great shakes, you are misguided. They like Farage, but those two are not in the same league. But the people don't care, they don't expect UKIP candidates to be as polished performers as the spinners, but it doesn't matter as long as they are UKIP, because the people have hope that UKIP are different to all the rest.

'Mark Reckless – Ukip’s lauded defectee – was disingenuous and evasive and possessed of all of the charisma and warmth of a caravan site on the Isle of Sheppey in late February. But at least he made sense when he spoke.'

'posting through letter boxes, lumping them all together for UKIP propaganda purposes TELLING THEM NOT TO TRUST THEM'

People are not stupid, they don't do what UKIP leaflets say or what any of the spinners' leaflets say either. People make up their own minds. UKIP is just swimming with the tide. The people have had enough, they've made their minds up and Cameron threw "everything we've got at it", but it still isn't enough - Tory big guns, spinners, bigwigs, PPES - none of it works because the people have decided that they have had enough. Even Farage can't believe the reception he gets wherever he goes, but he musn't get arrogant because it is the people who have decided and made a difference, not him.

Claig ... sorry, I don't need to read reams of other opinions I form my own, did I not say from Day 1 that back bencher Carswell and Reckless were no great losses, other than to boost a UKIP moral, as have little of anything else to offer.

*But surely you accept by-elections traditionally are PROTEST VOTES, the current government has had to slash government spending, SO VOTERS ARE PROTESTING - and it helps them (as Wheeler was betting on) if using UKIP, they have 'known (Conservative) knowns', rather than 'known (UKIP) unknowns'.

Otherwise those other 'home grown' clowns UKIP were putting up in by-elections BEFORE, wouldn't have come 2nd every time - or did I miss their success?

Re UKIP propaganda, people aren't stupid, but history shows (as now) people are more susceptible to it in bad economic times; and lets give a big mention to UKIP's clever exploitation of peoples/problems fears, bombarding social media with anti politics propaganda - whilst offering no solutions of their own albeit it with a party talent pool, or innovative policies different to anyone else.

The Cult of Farage has grown because he speaks out, often pointing out the obvious, but as we found with 24 UKIP MEPs, there is nothing he could do about those problems now, with 24 MP's in Westminster, or a minority government in Westminster - in fact, letting back a 2015 Labour, economically will take us On The Road to France', and make our EU/immigration problems worse.

'But surely you accept by-elections traditionally are PROTEST VOTES'

Yes, but not for a party of "fruitcakes", for the established opposition. That is why this is so different. This isn't playing about to give a message to the modernisers and Cameron. This is real, this is serious, this is an earthquake. That is why Cameron is desperate and is now pleading with Labour, LibDem and Green voters to help him save the modernisers' skins. He is in deep trouble. This is not just some protest, this is real.

"3. As a political leader, Farage is unprecedented in the UK

Nigel Farage is unique among a sea of samey British politicians; he smokes and drinks and laughs his way through interviews. Simon Jenkins shared an anecdote about watching Farage speak at the London School of Economics:"
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1. The EU is watching Farage closely

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1. Don’t expect a big Ukip win in 2015 ... but watch 2020"

www.theguardian.com/membership/2014/nov/11/the-rise-of-ukip-what-we-learnt

There is panic in the EU and elite establishment circles. They have never seen something like this, a party of "fruitcakes" shaking them out of their safe-seats. It is unprecedented.

"David Cameron last night issued a desperate appeal to voters in the Rochester by-election to vote tactically to keep out Ukip – as a poll showed the anti-EU party with a 12-point lead.

In a highly unusual move, the Prime Minister urged Labour, Liberal Democrat and even Green supporters to lend their votes to the Tory candidate Kelly Tolhurst to prevent a ‘Ukip boost, and all the uncertainty and instability that leads to’."

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2830796/Cameron-begs-Labour-voters-Help-beat-Ukip-Rochester-Farage-s-party-takes-12-point-lead.html

They never issue pleas like this in any other by-election. The reason they are doing so now is because this is real, they are desperate, because UKIP is a real opposition to the whole game, the whole club. The panic is palpable, they fear their game is up.

Farage interviewed by the editor of the New Statesman. Says he is not a conservative, but is a radical. Says he likes Labour's Jon Cruddas.

www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/11/nigel-farage-i-d-do-deal-labour

there was nothing the Cons could do because they didn't have an overall majority?

Don't make me laugh

The first (wrong) thing they did was to establish 5 year fixed terms thereby signalling to the slimey Liberals that whatever games the Libs played they would still be in office for the next 5 years.

And then they totally failed to get anything meaningful from the Libs while Clegg got is AV vote and stuffed. Cameron over the boundary changes.

Cameron could have pulled stumps and gone to the country on a Tory manifesto long before now. But he preferred having power go using that power effectively.

He's a liar, disingenuous, poor political strategist and pro EU loving crap negotiator.

A lot of people are going yo have to hold their nose to be able to vote for him.

WetAugust …. Do you want me to factually answer your 2010 state of the State ignorance point-by-point, or as usual, would you rather just stew within and believe what you want to believe? Your choice.

Claig .... Re Farage's crud and Cruddas; he is clearly confident he has his Conservative votes in the UKIP bag and targeting Labour voters now. It was just a question of timing, as that would have been the main reason to dump his 2010 General Election manifesto which included;

“At-a-glance: UKIP general election manifesto”
news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/8617187.stm
• Reduce public sector to 1997 size, diverting two million jobs to manufacturing and industry
• Freeze public sector pensions, bringing them "back into line with typical private sector pension provision".
• Raise tax-free threshold on income to £11,500, followed by a flat rate of 31% to replace current income tax and employees' National Insurance (NI)

How can anyone trust a party that wants to help the rich with a 31% Flat rate of tax in 2010, then dumps it after the votes are in, and then in 2015 states they are for the working class? How tricksy is that.

Best those Conservative voters wake up, and they will if Farage keeps up this socialist luv-in ....keep it up Nigel.

The panic in Rochester continues. The people have stood up and will not be put down. Spinners, sinners, PPEs are lost for words as they gaze upon the devastation wreaked on one of their safe-seats by the People's Army - whom the spinners called a motley band of "fruitcakes" and "looneys" only a year ago.

How times have changed! How the bells of Rochester Cathedral ring out and herald change! The good, decent people of Rochester, who have put up with so much for so long, are stoically awaiting their chance to send the spinners home. Big guns from Westminster, Etonians and people from every private school in the land, have been sent down to woo them but are all just laughed out of town, everybody knows there is only one way for the spinners, everyone knows they are going down.

Never has this ever been seen in our country before, not even in old days of yore. The people, the citizens, the hardworking, decent honest folk have stuck two fingers up and torn off their yoke. The spinners from Oxford, the teenagers in think tanks all laughed at the People's Army, but they ain't a-laughing no more, this ain't funny, this ain't no joke.

Reports from journos from every paper in the world highlight what is going on down on the streets of Rochester, in the pubs and the shops where are found all the good folk. What is happening in Rochester will go down in history, it will be told for centuries to come. It is the story of the People's Revolt, when good, decent folk had the spinners on the run.

"The genteel cobbled lanes of Rochester, which have witnessed rebellion and conformity in turn over the centuries, are a natural venue for the defining political battle of the day."
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The battle encompasses both the high politics of the day, as the Tories respond to the apparently unstoppable momentum of the Ukip outsiders
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the Conservatives struggle against Ukip’s two core messages that are resonating in the Medway town. These are that successive governments have lost control of immigration and that Cameron symbolises an elite that has no feel for communities “left behind” by the recession
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The prime minister revealed how much the Tories are struggling when he issued a plea to Labour supporters to vote tactically against Ukip in favour the Conservative candidate
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“Rochester is such a lovely place. When you walk round here, with all the spires and gates and history of Charles Dickens, it has a Trollopian feel,” one MP said, referring to the Victorian novelist Anthony Trollope who chronicled the political life of the imaginary cathedral town of Barchester. The MP added: “You think how can we possibly lose?”
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The MP said: “Rochester is only one part of the constituency. There is Strood which is the Benefits Street of the south east. They are really angry over there. They are ready to punish us.”
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The Tories have not given up and are hoping that the Ukip support will prove soft as what they call “traditional Guardian-reading Labour supporters” vote tactically to prevent a Ukip win. Tracey Crouch told the Guardian: “This byelection is really competitive, we are getting some incredibly negative feedback about Ukip. There is a body of people, your traditional Guardian-reading Labour supporters who commute to London for a professional job, who are petrified of having Ukip on their doorstep.”

Crouch says Tolhurst has qualities Reckless will never match. “Kelly and I are both Leos, redheads and feisty. God help Medway and God help parliament is all I say.”

www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/12/rochester-byelection-gets-personal-ukip-versus-tories

It's desperate for them. They took the people for granted and now they are relying on Guardian readers to save them from UKIP and the people. They're praying, but it's way too late for that. There is only one week left for them, there is nothing that can save them.

Claig ..... easy tiger-ess, it is a by-election, and I'll paraphrase the quote 'a week is a long time in politics' - especially for a lying political party (UKIP) you laughingly promote as "anti spin, sin & PPE'd" - who are campaigning in Rochester ON THE NHS.

With the UKIP 2010 General Election manifesto attacks on the Public Sector in my post above, Farage also CONFIRMS below that whether UKIP write it down, or put it on film, UKIP/Farage are not in politics for 'the people', they're in politics for themselves.

“Nigel Farage caught on video suggesting NHS should be run privately”
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nigel-farage-caught-on-video-suggesting-the-nhs-should-be-run-privately-9857389.html

“Ukip leader Nigel Farage has been caught on film telling party supporters that the NHS should move away from the state-funded model, and towards a US-style insurance-based system.”

“The footage shows the Ukip leader say he would feel more “comfortable” if the UK’s healthcare was opened up to the “marketplace”.”

“His comments, made during his Common Sense tour of the UK in September 2012, clash with the party’s current line that it is opposed to the privatisation of the NHS.”

Clearly if the fact, by his own mouth, that UKIP is anti state funded NHS does NOT affect their Rochester lead, then it will confirm what everyone else knows; by-elections are for giving a government taking away the excessive debt 'punchbowl', a good kicking.

You have to feel sorry for the spinners. They tried their utmost, they threw everything they had at it, bigwigs, big guns, PPEs, Etonians, the best and the brightest, the greatest and the good, the bad and the ugly and all to protect a seat that was UKIP's 271st most winnable seat. And a bookie is already paying out to people who bet on UKIP to win.

"Coral starts paying out for Ukip win in Rochester and Strood – a week before the by-election"

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coral-starts-paying-out-for-ukip-win-in-rochester-and-strood--a-week-before-the-byelection-9858763.html

Spinners will go on TV after the result and tell the public that they have listened, but the real question is what have they learned?

John Major is doing his best to help the modernisers.

"Britain's Major calls UKIP the "anti-everything" party"
...
"UKIP are anti everything: they are anti-foreigner, they are anti-Europe, they're anti-establishment, they're anti-politics - I haven't found out what they are for but by goodness we know what they are against," Major said.

www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-2833649/Britains-Major-calls-UKIP-anti-party.html

They're for the people.

John Pienar explained what Major is up to on the radio just now.

All Majors speeches will have been cleared by Cameron so what you are hearing from Major us what Cameron himself would like to say to the Germans, but can 't. Notice too the slip when Major talked about negotiations before staying in. He'd make a rubbish poker layer.

Cameron has no negotiating position whatsoever on this Even the Swedish PM was on TV the other night saying immigration was good for Sweden, so wouldn't want it to stop.

The only way we will ever get out of Europe is if the Cons change their mind on staying -which they never will -so we are stuck in Europe forever.

Cult Ukippers in denial ........ *with the anti Public Sector policies within their 2010 General Election manifesto PROVEN to be Farage's, after a post showing the release of a supporter video with Farage's face uttering the need for a privatised NHS, all they have to say is 'John major'???? Guffaw.

Who can trust the two faces of UKIP; pro new train lines, anti new train line, pro a privatised NHS, anti TTIP etc etc etc

If this 'modernizing' of policies on the hoof is the new face in politics the UK needs, when in 2015 whoever forms the next government will need their own, or a joint coalition plan, to ensure the UK continues to grow - rather than be on the edge of a third recession like the rest of Europe, including Germany?

Clearly if a supporter has let go of the UKIP/Farage NHS truth, those previously within the Cult are beginning to see the blue light outside. lol