Meet the Other Phone. Flexible and made to last.

Meet the Other Phone.
Flexible and made to last.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

News

Conservative Carswell defects to UKIP

999 replies

Isitmebut · 28/08/2014 13:46

Modernizer Carwell won the new Clacton seat in 2010 with a large majority, heavily influenced by Ukip deciding not to stand a candidate themselves – so he has found a natural home with those that have a totally anti EU stance, but seems to forget that Ukip without a parliamentary majority cannot change British law to bring us out.

Claig …… after all your rants about right wing ‘modernizers’, you now own another one – so time for you to ‘jump’ the other way? lol

P.S. His defection was hardly cold, but by 1.30pm Wikipedia had been changed to reflect his defection. Who do you think was in a hurry to reflect his move, Ukip or the Conservatives? lol

OP posts:
WetAugust · 27/09/2014 23:54

well they are stuck with him for the times being as it's too late to change before May 15. just as Labour are stuck with Ed. Grin

Pixel · 27/09/2014 23:58

Imagine being stuck with Ed. His poor wife!

WetAugust · 28/09/2014 00:30

yuk. Confused It would be like shagging a 6th former Confused

claig · 28/09/2014 08:27

Finally we have a real analysis of what is wrong with the Conservative Party from David Davis in the Mail on Sunday. Davis is the only real Tory left in there - working-class and brought up by a single mum on a housing estate.

The problem is that they are luvvies, "modernisers" and the British people aren't. We have had enough of them. The Establishment has lost confidence, it believes in nothing, it has no ideology, which is why it follows any liberal fad that the BBC promotes such as polar bears and climate catastophe. The Establishment believes in nothing and is so out of touch with ordinary people that it needs focus groups to tell it what to think, and uses actors and celebritries and goodwill "ambassadors" and "tsars" to try and sway the public towards metropolitan concerns as it tries to "love bomb" Scotland and "save the planet" and it thinks that we will all applaud them for it. They have no plan, they have no idea, they have no goal, they are out of touch.

Here is David Davis who understands why the Tory Party has haemorrhaged support - it is because they are not like us, they are modernisers.

"To put it at its kindest, the project to ‘modernise’ the party failed to deliver electoral success. At the same time, party membership collapsed from around 500,000 in 1992, to about 100,000 in 2010. In short, we’re not in as strong a position as we would hope."
...
the threat from Ukip is no longer a laughing matter. We have to recognise the problem, think out the answer, and act on it.
...
The reason is simple: the strategy has been wrong because the analysis of the problem was wrong. This is not to say the Conservatives did not need to change. But to heal a sickness, you need the correct diagnosis and the correct remedy.

Trying to modernise the party without knowing why it needed to be modernised was like trying to fix a broken leg with radiotherapy. You may end up doing more harm than good.

Essentially, the modernisers absorbed the view of London’s metropolitan elite, which confuses social conservatism with bigotry, patriotism with xenophobia, or even racism, and equates an admiration for wealth creation with disdain for the poor and even carelessness about the future of the planet. Nonsensical views, but remarkably common in the upper reaches of parts of London society.

It reached its apogee with Theresa May calling the Tories ‘the Nasty Party’. This appalling calumny is best demonstrated by an abiding memory of mine.
...
It is not to say the Conservatives did not have a problem.

Their image was tarnished by Black Wednesday in 1992 when sterling crashed out of the ERM. And the ‘cash for questions’ exposés and occasional sex scandal gave the Conservative brand an unpleasant whiff of hypocrisy and corruption.

This was what cost the party a third of its support. It was not, as many modernisers believed, about bigotry, or homophobia, or even racism.

And yet this lazy, liberal, metropolitan analysis underpinned the moderniser approach. As the basis for abandoning the central tenets of the most successful political party in modern history, the analysis was rubbish.

By shifting the Conservative brand away from its historic base, the party abandoned traditional Conservative principles and made ourselves less appealing to those who supported us.

Headline policies have downplayed the economy and reform of public services, and concentrated on fringe issues like environmentalism, gay marriage and foreign aid. Very few of these are in voters’ top five concerns.

The party leadership is seen as considerably more Left-wing than its support. Middle England regards modernisation as the obsession of a metropolitan elite.

The most significant consequence to the Conservatives’ confused and inconsistent public stance is that Ukip are polling at slightly over 15 per cent. If they get over five per cent at the next General Election, it dramatically increases the likelihood Ed Miliband will be the next Prime Minister.
...
The proportion of Britons owning their homes has been falling for over a decade. Wage rates are stagnant and undermined by inflation. Household debt is at record levels. The aspirational classes on which the party has traditionally relied are crumbling.

We must continue to reduce the tax burden and end the absurd situation where money is taken from people’s pay only to be given back in benefits and tax credits. We should raise the National Insurance threshold in line with income tax to reduce the tax burden on the low paid. We should get rid of employers’ National Insurance contributions and reject Labour calls to raise the top-rate of income tax.

We must help the struggling middle classes with a rise in the threshold for the 40p tax rate. Too many pay what was meant to be a rate for the very rich.

When George Osborne said in 2007 he would raise the inheritance tax threshold to £1 million, a six-point poll deficit turned into a three-point lead. When David Cameron was seen to stand up to Europe over the election of Jean-Claude Juncker he went up five points in the polls. Such popularity is not easily explained by the traditional moderniser analysis, where Europe is a taboo subject."

www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2772283/The-threat-UKIP-no-longer-laughing-matter-Get-Dave-lower-taxes-win-Election-writes-DAVID-DAVIS.html

And Labour are out of touch too, as shown by Miliband's desperate Gareth speech, because they have exactly the same metropolitan mindset, because they are all part of the same metropolitan elite.

That is why UKIP are rising - because the people have had enough of being lectured to and patronised by a bunch of right-on luvvies, most of whom have never had a real job outside of politics.

Read more: www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2772283/The-threat-UKIP-no-longer-laughing-matter-Get-Dave-lower-taxes-win-Election-writes-DAVID-DAVIS.html#ixzz3Eamihxe8
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

claig · 28/09/2014 08:43

And it is exactly the same in Labour

“The party’s been hijacked by a metropolitan elite”: Labour MP Simon Danczuk

www.newstatesman.com/staggers/2014/06/party-s-been-hijacked-metropolitan-elite-labour-mp-simon-danczuk

And the reason is that it is this gilded, lauded, elevated class of PPEs and such-like from Oxbridge that the Establishment recruit from in order to try and hold the people back and keep the people down. - UKIP PPEs being an honourable exception of course!

claig · 28/09/2014 09:00

This is how theEstablishment prevents real change and ensures thatordinary peopleare not adequately represented

"Parachuting political careerists into safe seats is a poisonous practice

The conveyer belt ride of many candidates from private school to elite university to party politics is confirmation that our political system needs a radical overhaul
...
These ever-smiling, nakedly ambitious graduates straight out of PPE at Oxbridge are the faces of future Labour, lecturing me weekly on why local people in the north usually don’t know what they really want and need a representative who knows how to work within the Westminster elite to decide for them."

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/17/parachuting-political-careerists-safe-seats-candidates

That is how the Establishment maintain control.

WetAugust · 28/09/2014 10:32

Interesting analyses of the malaise within both major parties
Claig Some of them are starting to realise how they have hone wrong but the supertanker of the big 3 will take years to understand the problem and make the necessary navigational changes.

Nige on Five Live after the new in a few minutes

claig · 28/09/2014 10:38

Thanks, just tuning into Five Live

Andrew Marr Show was rubbish - metropolitan elite on the panel - Shami Chakrabarti and Daily Mail progressive and forner Cameron speech writer, Ian Birrell. He thinks there has not been enough modernisation. Smile

WetAugust · 28/09/2014 12:27

Sorry. It was the C hair an and not Niige that was on 5 live. the Chairman sounded a peeved that he didn't know about the Reckless defection before it happened.

Yep Daily Politics was rubbish, T hey still don't understand. The latest smear is Turbo T ories or T hatcheries tribute party. Labour activists are not buying that One quipped that T hatcher was to the left of the current Labour Party!

shcrofts get well prescription was absolute drivel. Will be interesting to see what his polls reveal at 2pm

claig · 28/09/2014 12:44

Yes, will wait for his 2pm announcement.

Sunday Politics is always good due to Andrew Neil. He had David Davis on. UKIP currently polling 15%, Davis says that if UKIP get 5% then Tories will be hit in marginals. They need to ty and get UKIP polling down to about 6% or so because about 3% will probably then change at election time. But they don't stand a chance of getting UKIP to fall to that.

There is only one real answer for them and that is to do a deal with UKIP, where they stand down in some seats and let UKIP take them. All of Essex for a start. Grin

UKIP could end up holding the balance of power and could then demand some of its policies are put on the agenda. The poor modernisers are already moaning and groaning, they know it's all over - common sense has returned to politics and Farage is its champion.

claig · 28/09/2014 13:03

Here is Simon Heffer, a real Conservative not one of Cameron's modernisers, not one of the public school progressives, writing back in August of this year

"Why I predict the panicking Tories will do a deal with Ukip

The time will inevitably come, probably in the depths of next winter, when the Conservative Party leadership is finally forced to accept a truth that it has been desperately trying to avoid.

Facing the nightmare prospect that Ed Miliband will win next May’s general election - partly because hundreds of thousands, possibly millions, of former Tory voters are so disillusioned by Mr Cameron’s style of government and by his version of Conservatism that they plan to vote Ukip - the party’s grandees will, I am convinced, make a humiliating U-turn.

Although they have doggedly refused to entertain the idea, they will have to consider an electoral pact with Ukip, or face at least five years out of government.

The man who, I believe, will have to tell Mr Cameron is his increasingly powerful adviser Lynton Crosby."

www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2713840/SIMON-HEFFER-Why-I-predict-panicking-Tories-deal-Ukip.html

It's over, the modernisers are in meltdown, their chums in the BBC can't save them, the people will win and have their voice heard.

WetAugust · 28/09/2014 14:02

Saw David Davies on AN. Not going to defect

Heffers piece is good but Dave is too arrogant to acknowledge the ness they are in or seek to do anything about it. No one will depose him and Lynton Crossby will not be offering him the loaded gun and bottle of scotch

So they will all go down with the ship.

Apart from those this J R-M who may strike their own local deals with UKIP.

Also, I really do think that even if you are a L about voter you will have a lot of difficulty putting your x against Coco the Clown

Spinflight · 29/09/2014 01:49

"Apart from those this J R-M who may strike their own local deals with UKIP."

Jacob Rees-Mogg has already tried!

His local UKIP branch put it to the vote - the chairman I am unreliably informed, voted in favour purely out of sympathy as he suspected a unanimity against.

Still Jacob never mentions his utter humiliation when wittering to the press about a pact.

So it would be elsewhere - Nigel left it up to the branches hence there will be no pact. :)

Isitmebut · 29/09/2014 13:49

WetAugust …. Re Heffer’s Mail comment re Uk prosperity, that is was the Conservative’s have been RELAYING the foundations for, in place in 1997 before Labour took over – but you for some recent don’t want to see it and/or realise how much damage was done.

I remember in 1979, Thatcher took over from Labour a income tax minimum rate of 32p, the top rate 60 odd% upwards, any income from investments in the mid 90%s and Corporate Tax 50% - ALL SLASHED by Conservatives from 1979 to 1997, but NOT in a straight line, it is always work in progress and some years they may have to rise, but the direction of travel was clear, to all bar the stupid.

In 2010 the £157 bil budget deficit, as any deficit, HAS TO BE PAID DOWN VIA TAX INCREASES OR GOVERNMENT SPENDING CUTS, but the Conservative coalition decided to mainly CUT some taxes and cut more government spending/waste.

The ALTERNATIVE of less cuts, by default, meant MORE TAXES, and that is the sheer hypocrisy of Labour going on about INCREASING wages to help with the ‘cost of living’, when they would have had to raise most taxes again and again to pay the deficit down.

So having the Conservatives in power since 2010, has not only ensured a UK recovery, but also ensured the UK were not subjected to large tax increases, which in itself is a ‘tax cut’, on in general terms, a lower tax direction of travel.

Yet UKIP Central Office has come up with a ‘deficit, what deficit’ tax give aways the Institute of Fiscal Studies will COST £19 billion a year; Osbourne taking some pensions out of tax, that will cost £150 million, a sector decimated under Labour – which is the more credible?

Ukip tell us ‘they want the balance of power’ in 2015, have they learned nothing from the Lib Dems in 2010 promise to cut Tuition Fees, as how will Ukip in a 2015 Coalition with Labour get those tax cuts through, when they say some will be financed by leaving the EU – yet Ukip cannot deliver an exit from the EU on their own, and certainly not in government with the Labour Party, which will happen if Farage gets over 9% of the 2015 vote.

Clearly any fool of a Ukip party who will never FORM a government can seek ‘headlines’ offering huge tax cuts when don’t have to worry how to fund education, defence, the NHS.

Any fool of a Ukip party would not have to worry about a National Debt that in 2015, is likely to COST £75 billion interest a year (to come out of the annual spending pot), that is TWICE our current Defence budget, or three quarters of our NHS budget.

And Carswell chose the Ukip path of economic illiteracy and no chance of leaving the EU, for a poxy Ukip title, Deputy Leader of Ukip? I do hope the people of Clacton wake up in time.

OP posts:
WetAugust · 29/09/2014 16:28

It's easy

What's £ 50 million a day x 365. that's what we would save by leaving the EU

We just say ' Sorry you are too expensive, we are not paying that any more'.

Plus we save 6% of GDP that we give away to corrupt dictators and countries with space programs I have no idea how much that is but can guess it would pay for a few hip operations

Then we tell the PPI providers that we want to renegotiate the contracts that Tone saddled us with. That should save a few bob.

then we really cut the quangos. If private enterprise wants a Mangold Wurzels quality board they can pay for it

I have saved a huge amount in benefits you will have noticed by closing the open door policy that permits Polish families to claim for child benefit for their children living in Poland while increasing the employment opportunities for own own young people.

We remove the barriers to work, reduce red tape, issue the unemployed with a bus pass so they can get to interviews. We ensure our workforce is paid a realistic wage instead of having to rely on top up benefits that subsidise private industry at the expense of the tax payer.

we stop tax relief on mortgage interest for buy to let mortgages and stop trying to manipulate the housing market by injecting wads of cash under Buy Blah schemes. we build more council houses and house those who need them.

And we start getting the big multi nationals to pay their tax bills.

All those initiatives should collectively raise a few bob.

And that's just for starters.

All you do is give me history lessons on how we got into the mess were in.

WetAugust · 29/09/2014 16:31

Oh and we stop joining wars and firing million pound missiles at mud huts in the desert.

And we scarp the aircraft carriers that have no planes than can be used on them and which will need the remainder of our vastly reduced number of Navy ships to protect them. they are a complete joke. But somebody cleverly decided to call them Queen Elizabeth and Prince Charles and you cannot scarp the royals canyou? by the time Prince Charles is operable they'll have to rename the thing King Charles,

claig · 29/09/2014 16:37

'I do hope the people of Clacton wake up in time.'

They are already awake. Guido Fawkes's order-order.com went down to Clacton o see what the word is on the street. They called Clacton-on-Sea UKIP-on-Sea, they couldn't find a single Tory voter. This is going to be the biggest wipe out since time began. They haven't got a clue what people really think, and I bet it is the same on doorsteps in Rcohester too, and all their bigwigs and chums in the media can't save them.

WetAugust · 29/09/2014 17:19

LOL. UKIP should use that as their Party Political Broadcast. Nit a fruitcake in sight either, just a very broad cross section of Mr Parris's shell suit wearing underclass GrinGrin. NOT

WetAugust · 29/09/2014 17:23

Does anyone else think that those series rows of sweatshirt clad folk sitting passively behind Grant Shaps look like that death cult that self destructed so they could meet up with that comet a few years ago? GrinGrin

Or is it just a very large backing group?

Grant and the Subsidies?

Tory Chaps for Shaps?

or is this the Birmingham Branch of the Thought Police

WetAugust · 29/09/2014 17:25

Actually. One of them could be you Isitmebut?

I do like that conference centre though. had some very disgustingly Wolf of Wall Street corporate bashes there in the 80s GrinGrin

AbbieHoffmansAfro · 29/09/2014 17:27

Wow UKIP 46% in Boston & Skegness

claig I know people who live there, they've been telling me it could very well go to UKIP for quite a while now.

claig · 29/09/2014 17:37

AbbieHoffmansAfro, that's interesting and it is or was a safe Tory seat, it seems.

We are witnessing the beginning of the end of the Tory Party. It is quite amazing. It will take years yet, but it is over for them. UKIP will end up being the main opposition to Labour up North, and down South, UKIP will begin to beat the Tories.

Janan Ganesh, the FT journalist who is friendly with Tory bigwigs and who wrote a biography of George Osborne, said on the Sunday Politics something like the best thing for the Tories would be if all their Euro-sceptics defected to UKIP and then the remainder of the Tory Party might be out of power for 15 years but would be able to rebuild.

The thing is if it did that then it would never get back in again, because the battle would be between Labour and UKIP, and Labour would probably lose that battle because it has abandoned the working class and UKIP is picking up lots of working class Labour voters.

claig · 29/09/2014 17:42

'Does anyone else think that those series rows of sweatshirt clad folk sitting passively behind Grant Shaps look like that death cult'

It was regimented spin, with all of them in the same uniform. They think they can sell a message to the public with this type of spin. Labour also had a hand-picked crowd behind Miliband during his speech as a spin technique, but at least they made it less obvious by not dressing them up in uniform.

AbbieHoffmansAfro · 29/09/2014 17:44

And don't forget Louth and Horncastle, next door. It is Sir Peter Tapsell's seat. He is hugely popular but he is retiring at the end of this Parliament, so I think the seat is very much up for grabs.

claig · 29/09/2014 17:53

Just looked at Louth and Horncastle. Huge Tory majority, but that means nothing. People don't actually like the Tories, they just prefer them to Labour. With UKIP on the scene, many Tory voters will switch to UKIP instead.

Swipe left for the next trending thread