Conservative Carswell defects to UKIP

[Isitmebut]

Modernizer Carwell won the new Clacton seat in 2010 with a large majority, heavily influenced by Ukip deciding not to stand a candidate themselves – so he has found a natural home with those that have a totally anti EU stance, but seems to forget that Ukip without a parliamentary majority cannot change British law to bring us out.

Claig …… after all your rants about right wing ‘modernizers’, you now own another one – so time for you to ‘jump’ the other way? lol

P.S. His defection was hardly cold, but by 1.30pm Wikipedia had been changed to reflect his defection. Who do you think was in a hurry to reflect his move, Ukip or the Conservatives? lol

Pollster Peter Kellner on the BBC thinks Mark Reckless will win Rochester and Strood. UKIP got 42% in the Euro elections in Medway and the Tories only got 23%.

Kellner says the Tories are scared that UKIP will hand Labour victories in Labour-Tory marginals.

I live in one if those marginals. It's been blue and red several times in the last few decades.

Lord Ashcroft is releasing his polling data tomorrow at 2pm. UKIPs twitter feed revealed their latest pollings earlier this afternoon

Apparently Ashcroft has tweeted that The Tories' arrogance and Labour complacency have led to the rise of UKIP.

This is bad for Cameron. It is all going wrong just months before the election.

This first time housebuyer policy they have got is not good enough, it leaves lots of people out and doesn't match UKIP's tax cuts.

Claig. Take a look at Lord Ashcrofts latest Twitter. Is he making a prediction? If not why tweet that about Dan

He's also published dome if his polling results

Yes that is interesting about Dan.

Wow UKIP 46% in Boston & Skegness

Why would he post something like that? Is it intended to provoke perhaps a spoiler to force an early action rather than let the person involved pick his moment? It's like being outed.

I don't know. I don'tthink Hannan woud join. I think he is Tory though and throuh and would only try and upstage Farage. I don't think he really understands the mood of the British public and he doesn't understand why we have turned to UKIP.

He is pro Ukraine etc, on the opposite side of Farage, and on the side of the EU bigwigs who are also pro Ukraine.

I don't think he is real UKIP material.

Reckless is top-notch and someone of his background and education and prospects to join UKIP is highly significant. I think he sees a future for UKIP. It won't go away - in fact within 10 to 15 years it will probably have taken over from the Tories. Now MPs are defecting, soon donors will start defecting when they realise and understand the public mood and Farage's pro business stand.

The Tories will never be able to change, they will never be able to represent ordinary people because they come from a different world and that is why they will inevitably decline.

Hmmm. weird tweet then. Perhaps it's a joke between them?

Paul Sykes got a thank you during yesterday's leaders speech and said he would continue to support

Paul Sykes is fantastic, I hope he keeps backing UKIP. Some of these big donors have in the past said that they would return to the Tories if the Tories just got out of the EU. But the public is way beyond the EU now. The public is voting UKIP because they have had enough, so I hope the big donors will stick with UKIP because UKIP is the future because that is the way the people are going.

I wouldn't want Hannan in UKIP because if you read between the lines you can see that he doesn't care about the reasons why the public is voting UKIP, he really wants the Tories to win and for the Tories to be more Euro-sceptic.

The public is voting UKIP because they want solutions to their problems. That is why Reckless spoke about the enthusiasm, hope, optinmism and desire for change of people at the UKIP conference and contrasted that to the lobbyists and PR people who will be at the Tory conference. UKIP is a people's party and that is why the people are enthusiastic. But Hannan doesn't really care about that. he is a Tory and so is Ashcroft. They don't really want UKIP to do well because they don't care about what they offer or stand for apart from getting out of the EU.

I think Hannan is for the bombing in Iran and he is pro Ukraine, the same as the Tories. He is anti some of Farage's sensible foreign policy positions.

Here is Hannan explaining why he doesn't want to join UKIP and I think it shows a slight disdain for what UKIP really offer to the enthusiastic people who have hope that UKIP can offer real change.

"So, why not join? Well, here’s a curious thing. For me, the main issue in politics is shuffling off the dead coil of EU membership. When every continent on the planet is experiencing economic growth except Europe, it makes no sense for Britain, a global trader, to be tied into a local customs union.

For most of its existence, this was also Ukip’s overriding goal. But now the party has adopted a spread of domestic policies aimed at picking up disillusioned voters. It has every right to campaign on whatever issues it wants, obviously. But it is no longer focused on getting out of the EU and, in consequence, is prepared to subordinate that goal to its wider electoral interests.

This represents a shift. The Ukip of ten years ago, or five years ago, would gladly have thrown its weight behind whichever of the main parties offered an In/Out referendum. Its activists used to boast that this is what made them different: unlike all the other politicians, they said, their aim was to get Britain out and then quit politics. Now, though, they would rather maximise their vote than ensure a pro-referendum majority in the Commons. To adopt one of their own favourite phrases, they are “putting party before country”.

blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100283493/so-why-dont-you-join-ukip-hannan/

Sorry that should have been
I think Hannan is for the bombing in Iraq

Strange mixture of ideas expressed by Hannan.

Of course the bin Laden observation that people would rather back a strong horse than a weak one will no doubt be helping momentum too.

Just watched a YouTube clip of Ed doing his Together bits set to Go West by the Pet Shop Boys that was produced by Newsnight

I think that Hannan is just establishment Tory except that he is also euro-sceptic which is not establishment.

UKIP has momentum and millions of people are sympathetic to UKIP but think it might be a wasted vote. When they see the result in Clacton and see how UKIP are the main opposition to Labour in the North, then there will be an avalanche as people start piling into UKIP and follow the people who put them in in areas like Clacton. It will be like a snowball getting bigger and bigger and faster and faster as it rolls down a hill.

Yes, Ed's together speech was a comedy gift.

So now Labour is trying to portray UKIP as a Thatcherite tribute party. This must be the latest thing they've dreamt up to try to persuade the northern Labour strongholds against Ukip.

whatever next

Yes, that's the only thing they have got - Project Fear 2

But they underestimate how much ordinary people are fed up of Labour who have let ordinary people down. Just like in Scotland, the Labour luvvies will find out what the people really think of them. In Scotland they were called "red Tories" and it is similar in England.

Former Chief of Staff to David Cameron, Alex Deane, is on Sky's Press Preview now.

He is interesting as he always shoots from the hip and doesn't seem to take the party line, bit of a loose cannon, so he will probably come up with some interesting stuff on how bad this is for the Toreis.

I always try to watch Sky press review. It's on now

So the level of discontent within the Tory MPs is starting to become apparent. Interesting

Yes, swathes of backbenchers are unhappy.