Missing Malaysia Air plane MH370 - Part 3

[KenAdams]

Thread 1

Thread 2

Dallas type incidents happen every day. We know that he would have been highly unhappy at what happened in court a few hours before he flew. We also know that he may have been stressed for family reasons too. We also know that his co-pilot had opposing political views. Is it so hard to believe that this led to a fight in the cockpit, with the co-pilot landing headfirst on something hard and being killed or seriously injured? How might the pilot react to that situation? His flying, reputation, family are probably all important to him, and he will now face a murder charge with probably life imprisonment in for all we know nasty conditions. How could he face deliberately landing the plane and handing himself in? He may well either have killed himself or become paralysed by fear, distress and indecision until the plane eventually crashed.

NB this could have gone the other way, with the co-pilot being the survivor.

Can someone summarise the mess up on timings of ACARS and transponder being turned off/ disconnecting?

Malaysia said they worked off an incorrect assumption. They implied the transmitters had signed out, meaning they were turned off rather than suffering a sudden loss of power. Apparently they send one last squawk if that happens, whereas turning them off sends a shut-down message.

People on here have said they are often turned off, for various reasons, so nobody would worry until it became obvious they hadn't been switched back on - half an hour later.

I just don't think it's all that helpful to speculate on people's character or mental condition with absolutely no evidence. You're basically suggesting one of the pilots killed 240 people on purpose.

YY, Dinosaurs. I know more about psychology than about flying a plane, and am slightly irritated by all the assumptions that pilots can't suffer mental disruptions like ordinary human beings. It is a fact that flying's an incredibly stressful profession. Additionally, an above-average proportion of pilots display risk-seeking behaviour of one sort or another (it's partially what attracts them to the job.) All humans are fallible.

So were they turned off with a shut down message or did they suffer a sudden loss of power?

Goldie your support on here far outweighs a couple of idiotic comments. Your calm reasoned answers and suggestions have helped me get quite a lot of things straight(er) in my head. I also appreciate that all along you have never over dramatised anything, always sticking to the best possible outcome.
I am a worrier and the logical calm reasoning you gave has helped me get through the last 11 days!

With my shiny tinfoilhat on when I heard the story about the pilot's wife leaving him my first thoughts were - I wonder what was said - nasty things are said in a heated argument.What if she had said you are a shit pilot and no wonder you have to practice on your s(t)imulator every night blah blah. So he then decides he will show everyone what an amazing pilot he is.

Hat off.

Laugh at me now.

Not exactly on purpose, no. And pilot suicide has happened a number of times before. I think it is more likely to happen and more understandable if the pilot had not made up his mind to do this before being in the air, with an incident happening while in the air. He would not have been in his right mind.
These things can happen when people are totally distraught and can see no way out of their predicament (eg parent taking family with them).

@DowntonTrout Tue 18-Mar-14 11:52:17
"I wrote a post on the other thread about the switching off of the ACARS. I read that when turned off it sends a message to say that it has been switched off. This is how they would know the timing."

I queried this on Sunday, but Goldie wasn't sure of the precise technical details of how often the ACARS sends a data burst.

However, this question was answered clearly yesterday at the press conference. The guy from MAS said that the last ACARS data ping occurred at 1.07 and was due to give another ping 30 mins later at 1.37. However, that never occurred, so they can conclude that the ACARS shutdown happened only at sometime within that 30 minute window, they can't pinpoint it any further.

But Dinosaurs if the pilots did have a fight like you suggest, they would have had to have had it in the few moments between signing off to Malaysian Air Traffic control and the plane changing course and disappearing from the radar.

I don't think it unlikely that pilots suffer mental disruptions. I just think it highly unlikely it would be so severe that they would willingly kill 240 other people. And unless there is a lot of evidence for it, not helpful.

Those still suggesting that the pilot would do something just as an act against the current government, just because he is an active follower of the opposition: you like the "condems" do you?

Anyway. Just had a bit of a lightbulb moment as to what a terrorist organisation may achieve if they disappeared a plane. America thinks China is hiding something, and the same the other way. Both think malaysia is hiding something. Everyone thinks someone else knows something thst they arent letting on. Leading everyone to thinking that perhaps the other country shot it down and hid it (even though noone did), and it cant have just been 'normal' terrorists as they didnt do anything with the captured plane. So then who did do something with the plane? China thinks america didnt care about the chinese citizens onboard, america thinks china would be happy to sacrifice their own citizens if they saw a threat. Relationships that are already taught start to fray further. People retaliate against what they percieve happened. World war three. The end.

In terms of parents taking family with them, there is some 'logic' in that (not wanting kids to be hurt by their death).

Or else the co-pilot was the survivor and held it together enough to give the sign off.

Merry - what do you say re the Silkair pilot a few years back who was found, due to owing money, deliberately to have boarded his plane with many passengers on board, performed stunts with it and plunged it into a river, killing all on board?
If we're going to discount possible scenarios that do have some strong circumstantial back-up there's not much point having the thread, which is by its nature partly speculative.

There's been no evidence to suggest it was the pilot or co pilot. They could be the opposite, complete heroes. Or victims of a hijack or some form of asphyxiation.

We just don't know. But we do know that so far no evidence has come out apart from the usual DM wailing based on bog all. I honestly wouldn't be paying much attention to what any of their reports say.

Have joined this thread late. Have only read some posts. So my theory may have been discounted already.

Apparently this could have all been planned by the Malaysian government to take the focus away from jailing of the opposition leader. I live here,but don't understand the politics much but apparently there may have been riots due to the jailing which the government is trying to distract from...

But that theory has lots of holes...

potential Maldives sighting of plane apologies if this has already been linked

Am I being too hopeful? I have just been looking at Tomnod and found this Does the link even work? It sort of looks too regular to be a wave. Am I way off in what to look for?

For Dinosaurs: SilkAir (sorry off topic!)
In 2001, six families who had sued SilkAir for damages based on the allegation that the crash was caused by the pilot were turned down by a Singapore High Court judge, who ruled that "the onus of proving that flight MI185 was intentionally crashed has not been discharged."

In 2004, a Los Angeles Superior Court jury in the United States, which was not allowed to hear or consider the NTSB's conclusions about the accident, decided that the crash was caused by a defective servo valve in the plane's rudder resulting in a rudder hard-over. The rudder manufacturer, Parker Hannifin, was ordered to pay the three families of victims involved in that case US$44 million. After threatening to appeal the verdict, Parker Hannifin later decided to compensate all families involved (although it did not accept liability).

This gives an interesting and convincing (to me as a lay person) perspective -

Fire on Board

Sounds plausible!

@Marigold re:waypoints

If you imagine a road atlas and how that relates to the land & roads that you drive... there's equivalent maps for pilots and aviators for the skies. For commercial/civilian flights there's distinct flight paths that they take, they don't just fly through the sky like a crow would. Waypoints sets of co-ordinates on a map... they are nodes or intersections to help the pilot navigate safely and correctly through the skies. Waypoints are the points in which a pilot can change course onto a different flightpath. A bit like satnav plotting routes down various roads and junctions, but much more geometrical, based on co-ordinates, lines and compass degrees.

Still no further developments, I feel so sorry for the poor families I can't stop thinking about them.

In my mind, the fire theory doesn't add up. The changes of direction; lack of communication; no attempt to land at nearby airports; the lack of evidence of a crash landing in the vicinity; the data showing the plane was probably still flying hours later...

The terror angle seems far fetched as well though- what has been gained? If it was a hijack then they either wanted to send a message, wanted the plane, the cargo or the passengers/crew. There are easier ways to source a plane, and if it was meant to be used as a weapon then why wait and risk detection? The cargo would be easier to steal on the ground surely? The passengers may be wanted as hostages, in order to negotiate with China. The Malaysians seem certain that it was human action rather than an accident behind the disappearance.

Pilot suicide also seems odd but it's a possibility.

Military intervention could be another explanation.

There is lots being kept back (which is fair enough if the information is sensitive but it makes people suspicious) and less information being shared. We don't seem to be getting as many leaks from US/ Chinese sources either. It's just so baffling at the moment, and so slow moving. It must be unbearable for the families.

Personally I'm leaning towards it landing somewhere, or being shot down, but that's just my opinion (and I keep changing my mind every couple of days as the 'evidence' changes).

to Goldie, you've been so informative and patient on these threads.

This is an example of an aviation map with waypoints, and shows the route of flight MH370 in red. Waypoints are marked with small pink triangles

airinfodotorg.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/capture-d_c3a9cran-2014-03-14-c3a0-11-55-54.png

All the theories seem implausible, that's the problem.

I'm very uncomfortable with speculating too much about the pilots. Of course suicide is possible and of course the actual investigators have to look unflinchingly into all the possibilities, but given that we're just randoms chatting on the internet and that the evidence offered for the pilot's state of mind seems fairly tenuous, I don't want to contribute to any blackening of their reputations that may turn out to be unfair.

I've been following these threads from the beginning (erstwhile Malaysian, so feel especially involved) and want to let Goldie know that she is amazing! Please come back!

Also, Kale wondered above whether Langkawi airport could handle a big aircraft. About a decade ago (when it had a lot more routes and before it got in such financial hot water), Malaysia Airlines had a direct flight from LHR to Langkawi - this would have been a big plane, perhaps a 747? I can't say whether the runway is definitely good enough for an almost fully-fuelled 777, but I'd guess it is.