Missing Malaysia Air plane MH370 - Part 3

[KenAdams]

Thread 1

Thread 2

It is just mindboggling.

I would like to thank livingzuid (for bringing me up to date yesterday!) and Goldie (for explaining lots of tecchie stuff I would never have even guessed at).

Poor families - talk of some of them going on hunger strike?
Very sad indeed.

Good point, what is happening in Crimea would have been given much more attention if it was not for this missing plane. Interesting.

The more I read, the longer this goes on, the more confused I become.

I presume the reason the Malaysians are so intent on foul play is that they know something they have not released. They have said as much. Each theory you read seems plausible until you come across something that just doesn't fit. If there was a definitive answer so readily available I'm sure the powers that be would have collectively come up with it by now.

Meanwhile, it seems the US are convinced of the Southwest arc and are searching that area. The Chinese are searching their territory in the northwest arc. Looks like nobody has a clear idea what happened yet.

Another that appreciates Goldies contributions to these threads. It's been the least hysterical and most balanced conversation about the whole tragedy I've come accross.

Shame there's always someone so quick to wade in with the "who does she think she is" line round here. Empty vessels make the most noise I suppose.

@Jonathangirl

sorry if I'm xposting here

Your first point about ACARS is incorrect. ACARS is the system that sends operational/technical data to the airline about how the engines are running, atmospheric conditions etc etc. It doesn't have anything to do with navigation or air traffic control. That is where the transponders come it... they broadcast a four digit code identifying the aircraft, along with flight no, speed, altitude etc... that's the spot that shows up on ATC screens & flightradar24. This can be changed, eg pilots can turn it to 7700 for a general distress call or 7500 for a hijacking, so if someone was attempting to enter the cockpit, it would be a quick matter for the pilot to change the dial to alert ATC to danger.

ACARS was useful in the AF447 crash... when the plane should have appeared over the atlantic into Senegalese airspace, but never arrived, it was the first indication that something was wrong... the engineers in Paris could look at the data and see that it stopped broadcasting data mid-atlantic. This helped narrow down the time & place of crash so search planes could scour the area. With MH370 however the ACARS was deactivated, so the investigators don't have this vital info.

Just about over the IGARI navigation waypoint half way across the gulf of Thailand, at around 1.20, the pilot/hijacker signed out from Malaysian ATC, then switched the transponder off. You are right about the ACARS here... that may have been switched off anytime between 1.07 and 1.37, but most likely at this same point in time. This is where the plane made the sharp turn westwards and went back over the Malaysian peninsula.

A few minutes later, when the plane should have been in Vietnamese airspace, the vietnamese raised the alarm that the plane wasn't in contact/showing up. There was a plane bound for Japan 30 mins in front and they tried to get in radio contact, but only heard mumbling & interference. I think this was another avenue to investigate before the alarm was raised further. So it does rather beg the question, if the vietnamese had flagged something seriously amiss to the Malaysians, why the Malysians weren't scrambling military jets and being shit hot on their radar.

I think there is a boundary between ATC spaces, and the plan was to change course and put the plane into stealth at this point of maximum confusion. Vietnamese ATC wouldn't raise the alarm for a few minutes, which would afford them a good chunk of time to change course and get away in the other direction. Like you I think the fact this all happened at the navigation point on the exact boundary of M & V ATC is way too fishy for me & IMHO rules out mechanical failure/suicide for personal psychological reasons.

Psammead and others. I don't think they quickly jumped to the conclusion of hijack (and I don't think anyone has officially said 'terrorism'). It took quite a while. For ages, they were considering the fire/ problem with plane scenario. I think it was the 7 hours in the air thing which changed it, alongside problems with the communications.

Or they might just have turned left at this point because they were overcome by smoke & had been trying to isolate the source of a fire caused by taking off with a v heavy load? ( tyre).

urgh I have a choice of watching Putin spout nonsense to the Russian parliament or Gloria Hunnifordwhatsits scaremongering everyone about food poisioning. Radio it is....

You're welcome firstchoice hope it was accurate enough :) nothing compared to the efforts Goldie has gone to for us though.

There was a meme about the whole Crimea thing quint showing how this was done as a distraction. If one was to put on a super huge tinfoil hat on, I think I read a couple of conspiracy theories in that direction.

I think they shouted foul play quite early on? After what, a day or so ? The plane flying on and lack of communication is plausible, probable even? In that Goodfellow account.

The Malaysians announced it was criminal largely because they at that stage were saying that there was a 14 minute gap between the 2 communication devices being shut down. They are now saying that those 2 devices may have failed at the same time. This undermines the criminal argument to some extent at least.
The expert talking about this on Radio 4 this morning was flabbergasted at the Malaysians making this mistake and also their delays. Who knows what else they have got wrong, through incompetence or on purpose.

great post kale :)

I think the fire theory no longer stood up when it emerged that the plane had flown on for another 7 hours, Clifftop.

The expert talking about this on Radio 4 this morning was flabbergasted at the Malaysians making this mistake and also their delays. Who knows what else they have got wrong, through incompetence or on purpose.

So true. Why would they back track after having been so adamant? But also didn't some of the transmission stuff come from US sources?

The more this continues on the more I'm going to run out of tinfoil. I've been trying to not speculate too much but it's hard when the information keeps changing.

Why? If it was smoke that was the early culprit as in the Goodfellow account. The landing gear/a tyre potentially caught alight due to unusually heavy load... This was, it's been postulated, a slow fire but a deadly one. Why couldn't the plane keep going?

The expert on Radio 4 said that the Malaysians would have had the exact times both the communication devices were turned off or failed, in real time (they would have known as and when they were turned off, and the exact time, not just a window of time).

Has anything more been said about the tomnod pic courtney love found?

"The more this continues on the more I'm going to run out of tinfoil. I've been trying to not speculate too much but it's hard when the information keeps changing."

So true, livingzuid, so true.

It is a bit weird that the info keeps changing, so many days later?
Certainly it seems it is being heavily 'managed' (perhaps for 'good' reasons, such as suspicion still of terrorist involvement / folks still alive) but perhaps for nefarious reasons too?

I think what they said originally was correct and they are now playing around for time, for some reason. Possibly due to negotiations. I still think there is stuff happening which cannot be reported for some reason as it is too volatile. I think it's really interesting Malaysia is a Muslim, but moderately so, country. It makes it very neutral.

Thanks to the experts on this thread , we read here on Sunday that ACARS only communicated intermittently. Dinosaurs, I think you are right that it was the misunderstanding of the data that made the Malaysian officials think it was a criminal act. Can anyone confirm that "the Malaysians would have had the exact times both the communication devices were turned off or failed, in real time"? I got the impression that they wouldn't have necessarily known if ACARS had failed, until the next ping time. If it had suddenly failed, it would not have had time to send a signing off handshake??? Only if it had been turned off???

KaleCrochet thank you for your explanation.

I wanted to believe it was an accident, but that location of the plane disappearing of the radar at just the "perfect moment" just seems too significant.

Indeed, the plane wouldn't fly on for 7 hours if there was any serious fire or mechanical problems on board... they'd either fly back to KL airport or onwards to Ho Chi Minh City, whichever was nearest. If they were able to turn the transponder OFF, they'd be able switch it to send a 7700 alert code if they were in any serious technical trouble. The plane wouldn't stay up in the air for 7 hours with a fire/mechanical problems. The fact the plane made that weird zigzag manoever over the Strait of Malacca/Andaman sea according to exact navigation waypoints indicates overwhelmingly that it was preprogrammed to fly that way, that path could not have come about by accident.

Going back to the radar-shadow theory, Goldie suggested it would be nigh on impossible for it to stay hidden while changing direction. I was just wondering how often that would be an issue? Do planes fly in relatively straight lines with the minimum number of turns or is the path a bit more complicated? Could it be feasible that any turns were to be in areas with patchy radar coverage & 'they' decided it was worth the risk? I'm clutching at straws that the plane was hijacked for something/one onboard & everyone else has been abandoned in some remote location & left to fend for themselves. At least in that scenario there's a slim possibility that some of the passengers will be found alive.

See here's the other thing I can't get my head around. If the two tracking devices had been disconnected somehow, I find it inconceivable that a plane in distress wouldn't have been spotted somehow or somewhere. There had to have been another way of getting a communication out, panic button in the cockpit (I have no clue!) even if it was flying low to get a mobile signal for someone to call, something, anything - not going there with mobiles again! but iyswim. Wouldn't you as a pilot try to crash land somewhere and get the plane down as safely as possible? It obviously could go up and down and that in itself is why I don't think the lack of oxygen is it either.

To carry on for seven hours afterwards with your plane in the air at varying altitudes without being able to somehow send an SOS is surely not possible?

Firstchoice and marigold most definitely something going on with the information they are releasing and withholding. There haven't been any 'leaks' seemingly either from China or the US recently and I doubt that's because they are respecting the fact that Malaysia is supposed to lead on the investigation. One could hope it was out of respect for the relatives but I don't think so. It is deliberate.

Read the link posted by sauceforthegander, Kale. The pilot (Goodfellow) suggests with a fire on board. - a slow one with smoke being the main problem - the pilot of the doomed plane turned left to the nearest airport (Langkawai).