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Can we have a Ukraine/ Russia/ Crimea thread for dummies?

977 replies

chicaguapa · 06/03/2014 11:47

In other words, could someone explain the situation in really simple terms please. I don't understand it but feel it's important and I should know what's going on.

And because DD(12) asked me this morning and I couldn't answer.

OP posts:
mathanxiety · 11/04/2014 20:38

www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/ukraine-prime-minister-endorses-more-local-power-nato-rebuts-russian-charges/2014/04/11/719b7b5c-d971-4aab-b494-7b7500f7b876_story.html

It's all beginning to look quite greasy and cynical in eastern Ukraine. It seems the local oligarchs and bigwigs have discussed things and decided on how to proceed, without reference to the popular will. Very high handed on the part of both parties.

Yatseniuk says a new constitution has to be in place before the elections of 25 May. That means (a) more fisticuffs in parliament, and (b) no chance for any direct popular input into the shape their future state takes.

What this insistence on a new constitution before elections invites is a lot of action on the streets both east and west between now and whenever the constitution gets voted on in Parliament, and therefore it's not a wise tack to take. Already, we see Yatseniuk bowing to pressure and talking to regional leaders in the face of a standoff (and probably in the wake of mutiny by forces of law and order), and making noises about regional authority and language. This development doesn't bode well.

PigletJohn · 11/04/2014 20:45

" no chance for any direct popular input into the shape their future state takes"

Apart from the opportunity to express themselves through the ballot rather than the bullet.

PigletJohn · 11/04/2014 20:49

in math's link:

"In Moscow, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said his country has no intention of absorbing eastern Ukraine. He said it would not be in Russia’s interest to do so."

I wonder, then, why there are about forty thousand heavily armed troops close to Ukraine's border. It's been too long for a picnic.

beaglesaresweet · 11/04/2014 23:38

ust now they talked about this on Newsnight. Russia is joining EU, the US and Ukraine next thurs for a meeting. According to the journalist, Russia wants to impose conditions, i.e. to give the East of Ukraine constitutional right to veto Ukraine in its move towards NATO and EU Hmm

Fine regarding NATO, neither Ukraine nor NATO are keen, but fgs (to put it mildly) they have no right to stop Ukraine moving towards EU, the whole revolution was about that. Yatseniuk is unlikely to agree (I hope) nor would the other parties. So I assume the troops aer there to add pressure, or to 'defend' and 'protect' in case their conditions aern't met. I do hope the journalist mentioned EU inaccurately when talking about russia's requests, and it was only about nato.

beaglesaresweet · 11/04/2014 23:58

great article on Czechoslovakia, PJ. Good comments there about 'Soviet mind'. Most posters here seriously underestimate capabilities and excellent organizational abilities of FSB and in particular its 'special task units'

PigletJohn · 12/04/2014 00:01

sadly Russia, and previously the Soviet Union, consider their weaker neighbours to be mere minions with no right to self-determination.

I recall that goat said earlier "Ukraine is totally not ready to be anywhere near the EU" and also "Ukraine is not fit to be associated with the EU" so this arrogant feeling of entitlement to dominate neighbours is still alive. I have no idea where this idea comes from, but it is certainly not new. Perhaps, in Russia's case, goat is correct when she suggests that people today behave the same as their forefathers did seventy years ago.

invasion of Czechoslovakia

invasion of Hungary

invasion of crimea

invasion of Latvia

invasion of Finland

Many people in Western Europe thought that after 1990 this would end. Sadly we were mistaken.

beaglesaresweet · 12/04/2014 00:08

did goat say that Shock? funnily enough Ukraine is 'not anywhere near the EU at present' because it was not allowed to develop in any way that's not controlled by Soviet Unions, and the post-Soviet union (with the paek of nostalgia among some sectors of population happening there right now). Ukraine has all the chances to develop and bECOME ready with assistance and guidance from the EU, as the IMF chief has been talking about in last few days. Nobody is accepting Ukraine immediately, but with the willing of the govt and large and relevant sections of society, it's completely possible. Indeed it's arrogant to say what you did, goat. Why don't you reserve judgement and give it a few years.

Yes, after having a look at Russian tv recently, I was amazed how the soviet mentality is still live and kicking.

PigletJohn · 12/04/2014 00:08

(for the benefit of math, who thought these invasions took place while the Soviet Union was at war with Nazi Germany June 1941-May 1945, they did not)

beaglesaresweet · 12/04/2014 00:12

the peak of nostalgia, I meant.

btw please note, goat, that the nostalgia is there even though people KNOW now about Stalin's atrocities, and oppression (albeit milder) after Stalin - which were known for a long time, and that's disturbing. Yes they may say that it's other aspects of it that they liked, but is it really possible to pick and choose?

PigletJohn · 12/04/2014 00:28

they put 175,000 troops into Czechoslovakia, and have about 40,000 troops poised near Eastern Ukraine. It's terribly sad, and I pray that we will not see a repetition.

mathanxiety · 12/04/2014 00:34

Once again we see in Beaglesaresweet's post a tendency to ascribe blame for Ukraine's corruption and Ukrainians' inability to get along and stop living with their eyes glued firmly on the past, to Russia. This in spite of twenty years of independence and one revolution that had as its intention the end of corruption, and many years of gas supply at a very discounted price that should have given Ukraine a competitive economic advantage but was instead squandered.

The tendency to blame outside forces for problems in newly independent countries and focus on nationalistic elements of a country's history, or invent them of they are thin on the ground or if only a small minority ever participated in any sort of struggle, is very natural. When this sort of national fairy tale takes hold in the popular imagination, the only bad people are people from outside, or traitors within, while the natives cherish their fantasy of victimhood and neverending struggle against the oppressor. The only forces that hold the country back after independence are the boogie men across the border. Whatever is wrong, it's always 'other people' who caused it. The passive victimhood myth has a huge appeal. It happens everywhere. But it doesn't bring the country forward.

beaglesaresweet · 12/04/2014 00:35

math, I didn't endorse the rest of Tymoshenko's tape as being fine either, you are distorting my words. I criticise her all the time. The last part of the tape wasn't the only one that was faked or edited, possibly - but I'm not saying this to defend her generally, I did say a few times that her becoming a Pres would be a disaster imo, and that thankfully her rating isn't high even without the tape.

Again, please read more carefully - you were arguing that RS isn't democratic AS IF I said they were! Wjy are you now repeating that sentence as if I was saying that phrase to you - I was talking about myself in 'Nor did I ever say that Right Sector was democratically minded', not claiming that you did.
Later on the rest of you response. But it's tiresome to keep correcting what you've misread.

PigletJohn · 12/04/2014 00:42

"The only forces that hold the country back after independence are the boogie men across the border."

Math, are you perhaps referring to "little green men" AKA the Russian Army when they have taken the insignia off their uniforms and tanks in order to perform illegal acts and deny it?

little green men

or Russian Invaders

The internet has no shortage of photographs and videos showing armed men in Crimea who look like members of the Russian military. Their guns are the same as those used by the Russian army, their lorries have Russian number plates and they speak in Russian accents.

Yet according to President Vladimir Putin, they are in fact members of "self-defence groups" organised by the locals who bought all their uniforms and hardware in a shop.

beaglesaresweet · 12/04/2014 00:54

math really FGS, there was NO INDEPENDENCE for 20yrs. Please wake up to the fact that all the previous goverments in Ukraine had deals with russia, and one example is agreeing to cheaper gas supplies in exchange for political influence. The law worked not in the democratic way of the west, but similarly to russian law because this was REQUIRED by the russian govt who in exchange gave the Ukr leaders access to vast amounts of cash through gas/other deals. All the Ukr elite had/has money in western banks copy-catting what the russian oligarchs did. It was one and the same corrupt system, convenient to Russia and the leaders of Ukraine. Even Tymoshenko stole vast amounts while signing deals with Putin when she was in that system, now she openly says that ther was no room to behave differently. This is a big part of her unpopularity now, she took part in that, and whether she had choices or not, it's her ducking and diving and changing views and now hating Putin that nobody likes.
EU is the only way to cut the ties - this will involve the main thing - changes in law as well as economic system, as indeed has been discussed by IMF's chief a day go on tv. She did add that the majority of population has to have a strong desire for real cjhange, and imo majority does (from what I hear from people I know in Kiev who live there and know the public moods, whether they've been to Maidan personally or not).

math, you can stick to you negative and cynical view of Ukraine, I prefer to give then a chance, and to reserve judgement.

It's helpful to believe in people who want progress, who are willing to learn and who care about their country's future, otherwise why don't we all lay down and die now. Your attitude is the same towards US - it's all negative. But at least you have gathered evidence that suit your opinion, there is just NOT ENOUGH evidence for you to be this negative about Ukraine after a few months of the transition. Yes, I'm sure there aer lots of problens and potential problems, but I've heard Ukrainians on Ukr channels who are in their 20s saying, we so want to see this country when it's Great, we know it may only be our children or gc, but they are passionate about it. Plenty of older people who aer intelligent and educated who would try their best too. It's not even me - I'm a UK citizen for 20yrs and by all accounts remote from life in Ukraine, so I'm not being subjective while in the midst of things - I watch debates in Ukrainian, I also watch russian tv, and I make my owm judgements. I'm not generally a hugely positive person, but to me the developments there seem to be worth the support and positive overall, and the PM is good imo too, even if yoiu think I'm wrong, let's just wait and see.

beaglesaresweet · 12/04/2014 01:06

math I didn't say 'just' outside forces are at play - again exaggerating my words as usual, we didn't talk specifically about the many people in Ukr govts who were glad to be corrupt and playing along with Russians. There are weak/greedy or simply bad people in Ukraine like anywhere else. But anyone decent just did NOT have access to the top positions in power during USSR and after - you had to go through certain channels to get there and be approved by the 'apparat' and they would only allowthose who was willing to be corrupt (according to which line was current) which involved stepping on or in some cases 'getting rid' of others.

Yes, Russia was an empire for a long time, and southern/central ukraine was under it for centuries, don't gorget that under Tzars feudal system existed in Russia up until 20th cen (or nearly - it was very backward compared to europe), that's were passivity stemmed from and neatly the peasant slaves became the Soviet mass of 'peasants and workers' led by Lenin and then Stalin. Its a huge country, and yes the mind boggles that such a huge population can be so easily governed by this is history. The usual saying in Russia is that the Russians like a Tzar, and preferrably a strong one, whatever the actual interpretation of the role. Democrat Gorbachev has done great things but he didn't last and he was much less popular in russia (with many) that he was in the west.

it's the modern world with it's information and access that can really bring changes to those who want them.

beaglesaresweet · 12/04/2014 01:18

and re that point PJ is making - yes, math, it was extremely hard, no wait, impossible for any small republic to break away earlier as they didn't have (and Ukraine obv still doesn't have) an army that could stand up to the Russian mighty army - that's why when Baltic republics broke away their only chance was doing it with nato's support. Otherwise they would have been stopped. Yes, maybe nato has benefitted in some way, but nato never did attack russia
.
Russians cut off Latvian gas for 8 months - people stayed without heating and hot water - the prime minister of Latvia said this recently on tv. They also relied heavily on financial help from the west - well, great, they feel like they can live lives under working law now. Same with Ukraine - it does need help, and the will of people is now nearly as strong as it was in Latvia earlier (giving historical differences it's understandable that it took longer).

PigletJohn · 12/04/2014 01:31

Just for goat, who cannot bring herself to say if a person or organisation that co-operated with Nazis was actually a Nazi, because it has to include both Bandera and the Red Army

mathanxiety · 12/04/2014 02:40

So the problem is the elite now as well as 'others'. And the elites are not Ukrainian? And of course they would never have thought of putting their money safely offshore unless they had an example from those wicked Russians. They would never have been dishonest unless the Russians had forced them or shown them how.. If the Cayman Islands didn't exist Russia would have had to invent them.

'Even Tymoshenko stole vast amounts while signing deals with Putin when she was in that system, now she openly says that ther was no room to behave differently.'
And so do you, Beaglesaresweet. The whole country had no room to behave differently, apparently.

I am astonished that you repeat all those stereotypes about Russia and Russian history. Along with your earlier comment about 'Asians' surrounding the 'Slav' Putin it makes me sure that if you are in any way representative of Ukrainians in general then I do not share your enthusiasm for the future.

Putting people in separate boxes according to race or ethnicity or wealth is a huge problem in Ukraine. The failure to find common ground and work together has doomed Ukraine to penury. Twenty years of independence were squandered indulging in empty triumphal gestures as Ukrainian governments changed hands one language up so the other must be down, national heroes proclaimed one day and condemned the next, fistfights in parliament while Ukrainian women prostituted themselves on the internet out of desperation and Ukraine is now broke and the Right rules the streets of Kiev.

Even now, despite what is at stake, it has taken Yatseniuk seven weeks to travel to the east and to engage in consultation, however backroomish in nature, with leaders there. It is not possible to construct a state relying on passion and enthusiasm alone. It takes political skill and political instincts of a far higher calibre than any currently visible in Ukraine.

PigletJohn · 12/04/2014 02:43

what are "all those stereotypes about Russia and Russian history?"

PigletJohn · 12/04/2014 20:04

gunmen seize buildings in Sloviansk

"Further seizures of official buildings have been reported in east Ukraine as tensions between the new government and pro-Russian protesters rise.

Gunmen occupied a police station and a security services building in the town of Sloviansk. Official buildings in Druzhkovka were reportedly taken over."

perhaps this will lead to escalation. With 40,000 or so Russian troops nearby, I wonder what will be needed to avoid an invasion of little green men with insignia removed from their uniforms and tanks.

Can someone remind me please: When Chechens wanted to secede, did Mr Putin quickly arrange a referendum on independence for them? Or did that not apply because they were not pro-Russians?

PigletJohn · 12/04/2014 20:59

very disappointing but no surprise

A gun battle has erupted in the eastern Ukrainian town of Kramatorsk, the acting interior minister says.

Arsen Avakov said it began when unidentified gunmen tried to storm local administration buildings and police fired back.

Several other official buildings were reported to have been seized in eastern Ukraine on Saturday

mathanxiety · 12/04/2014 22:24

The east-west division in Ukraine predates Soviet times.

Many parts of western Ukraine were absorbed into different states and empires over the years, and only in relatively recent times became part of what is known as 'Ukraine'.

'The history of Western Ukraine is closely associated with the history of the following lands:

Easternmost Bukovina, historical region of Central Europe in official use since 1775, controlled by Kingdom of Romania after World War I and mostly ceded to the USSR by the Paris Peace Treaties, 1947.
Eastern Galicia (Ukrainian: Halychyna), once a small kingdom with Lodomeria (1914), province of the Austrian Empire until the dissolution of Austria-Hungary in 1918. See also: crownland of the Kingdom of Galicia and Lodomeria
Red Ruthenia since medieval times in the area known today as Eastern Galicia.
West Ukrainian People's Republic declared in late 1918 until early 1919 and claiming half of Galicia with mostly Polish city dwellers (historical sense).
Carpatho-Ukraine region within Czechoslovakia (1939) under Hungarian control until the Nazi occupation of Hungary in 1944.
General Government of Galicia and Bukovina captured from Austria-Hungary during World War I.
?inutul Suceava (Kingdom of Romania)
Volhynia, historic region straddling Poland, Ukraine, and Belarus to the north. The alternate name for the region today is Lodomeria after the city of Volodymyr-Volynsky. See also: Polish unofficial term Kresy (Borderlands, 1918–1939) that includes the West Belarus as well as Volhynia.
Zakarpattia or Carpathian Ruthenia presently in the Zakarpattia Oblast of western Ukraine.'

There have always been alternative points of view to the one promoted by the OUN(b), that there is such a thing as Ukraine, that Ukraine is for Ukrainians, and that the Ukrainian language is the language of Ukraine. These points of view have not just been held by ethnic minorities within Ukrainian territory but by ethnic Ukrainians. The OUN(b) branded such views treason and actively silenced Ukrainian opposition either by murder or by intimidation. Only when the OUN(b) dominated among the Ukrainian population in both Volhynia and Galicia could it begin its campaign to wipe out Poles living there.

There have always been large groups of non-Ukrainians living in the current day Ukraine. There are fewer non-Ukrainians now living in regions currently in western Ukraine than there were before the end of WW2 however.

In the muddled state of affairs in eastern Europe following the collapse of the Hapsburg Empire, Imperial Russia and Imperial Germany, Curzon attempted to allocate territories to newly emerging states and to draw borders that were acceptable to all parties concerned. One guiding principle used by Lord Curzon was use of previous borders that Britain had recognised (for instance the 1797 border between Poland and Imperial Russia), and another factor that was taken into account was cultural and linguistic aspects of an area's makeup (for instance in the matter of which country Lvi/Lvov should belong to - it ended up in Poland). Galicia and Volhynia went to interwar Poland.

Mass murder and forced resettlement of various ethnic groups by the invading Nazis and their local associates and henchmen changed the ethnic character of many of the regions along the old Curzon line, both east and west of it. Most notably, the Jewish population was wiped out. Galicia and Volhynia, where the OUN(b) murdered up to 70,000 Poles among other targets, saw their Polish populations greatly reduced.

In an ironic twist, both regions became part of the post WW2 Ukrainian SSR and its Ukrainian successor state thanks to the Red Army.

PigletJohn · 12/04/2014 22:32

"There have always been large groups of non-Ukrainians living in the current day Ukraine"

by this, do you mean foreign visitors? Or do you mean Ukrainian citizens with ethnicity or language of, for example, Tatar or Russian?

PigletJohn · 12/04/2014 22:59

Mass murder and forced resettlement of various ethnic groups were indeed terrible.

for example, as the German invasion approached, those who had already been imprisoned by the Soviets

In Ukraine alone,
Berezhany (Brze?any) near Ternopil (Tarnopol): between June 22 and July 1 the crew of the local NKVD prison has executed without a trial approximately 300 Polish citizens, among them a large number of Ukrainians.[13]
Donetsk Rutchenkovo Field
Dubno: All the prisoners, including women and children, were executed in Dubno's three-story prison.[1]
Ivano-Frankivsk (Stanislawow): Dem'ianiv Laz
Kharkiv 8,000 NKVD inmates along with interned Polish officers were executed on the outskirts of Kharkiv in the area of Piatykhatky, Kharkiv Oblast and buried on the grounds of a NKVD summer hostel.
Lutsk (?uck): After the prison was hit by German bombs, the Soviet authorities promised amnesty to all political prisoners, in order to prevent escapes. As they lined up outside they were machine-gunned by Soviet tanks. They were told: "Those still alive get up." Some 370 stood up and were forced to bury the dead, after which they were murdered as well. The Nazi foreign ministry claimed 1500 Ukrainians were killed while the SS and Nazi military intelligence claimed 4000.[2]
Lviv (Lwów): the massacres in this city began immediately after German attack, on June 22 and continued until June 28. The NKVD executed several thousand inmates in a number of provisional prisons. Among the common methods of extermination were shooting the prisoners in their cells, killing them with grenades thrown into the cells or starving them to death in the cellars. Some were simply bayoneted to death.[1] It is estimated that over 4000 people were murdered that way, while the number of survivors is estimated at ca. 270.[13] The slaughter was briefly terminated when local Ukrainian uprising forced the NKVD to retreat, but then it returned.[22]
Sambir (Sambor): 570 killed[23]
Vinnitsa: over 9,000 executed.[4]
Simferopol: on October 31, the NKVD shot a number of people in the NKVD building and in the city prison. In Yalta, on November 4, the NKVD shot all the prisoners in the city prisons.

PigletJohn · 12/04/2014 23:31

(for the benefit of people not familiar with the abbreviation, there is not an equivalent in English, but the NKVD was a Soviet force somewhere between the German SS and Putin's KGB, responsible, among other things, for mass murder of civilians and prisoners. It is very difficult to accurately calculate the number of victims to within a few million.

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