Can we have a Ukraine/ Russia/ Crimea thread for dummies?

[chicaguapa]

In other words, could someone explain the situation in really simple terms please. I don't understand it but feel it's important and I should know what's going on.

And because DD(12) asked me this morning and I couldn't answer.

just a quick point as I don't have the energy to read all atm, but again math you misunderstand. I said that Tymoshenko said that phrase about 'no room to behave differently' to illustrate that I'm not the only one making this point and atm I don't have any other quotes to bring here but it's a well known fact especially for anyone who lived in those countries - but she obviously means that there is room now to change things. I repeat that the difference now is that the US and the EU aer willing to help and the first stage of the agreement has been signed - so that Ukraine will HAVE to change the laws and economic structure to fit in. Previously the law at the top didn't work, all was corrupt both in monetary and ideological sense so to speak.
There is no big problem with ethnic divisions in Ukraine. It really IS NOT ETHNIC, I already said that maidan protesters were Russian speakers and ethnic Russians along with Ukrainians,mostly of democratic persuation, same type of mixed but progressive group marched in Moscow too, but divisions are 1) between generations as some sections of older generation still remain set against the west while the young ones look towards Europe due to travel opportunities and seeing for themselves what life is on the other side, and 2) divisions between progressive democratic groups of population of all ages and the pro-Putin ones (mainly eastern ukr, economically linked to Russia). Some people in Donetsk on euronews were saying that they want to be heard by the eU and that they ar not in principle after joining Russia but they want their industries recognised by the EU so the trade will continue and they don't lose jobs. Some are just loyal politically but I think you'll find not many. I bet anything that if they wre supported financially through transition , many wouldn't at all mind joining the EU, but of course Russia is scaremongering and the EU /new govt aer trying to work fast on solutions. Look at the protestors in Donetsk , math - they are the typical soviet stock who aer not well educated and those people (who I'm sorry for, rather than blaming) were the main target of pro-soviet propaganda over decades. And of course there aer Russian 'helpers' there. Why don't they have a proper dialogue first?? surely they could still refuse after the dialogue if they wanted to separate, but it's not intelligent or open minded not even to have a dialogue with new govt. That's your 'passive population' - what do you think USSR systematically did over years? they got rid of dissidents, and placated and brainwashed those who wre not critically minded or educated (even tough perfectly nice people, many of them, patriotic in their way), so that's who you see mostly in Donetsk. Should these people make decisions? Kiev is much more evolved if you listen interviews from passer-by in Maidan. Not ALL of tem, before you make that comment, but even going by the language - educated and progressive thinkers who so far haven't featured in Donetsk protests.
Of course they should have a right to referendum if they want to, but not in a huge rush without proper discussion which the new govt is ready to do - like it's happening with the Scottish ref here.

math just noticed you talking about 'elite' - I do wonder why I bother at all! yo udon't read carefully, seems like you read part of a sentence, not the whole phrase/thought. I did say that there wre/are plenty of Ukrainians ready to be corrupted and to steal - this is the point about the whole Soviet system that put in these positions people 'like them' which I described already. Of course they chose to appoint those Ukrainians who were happy to steal in exchange of giving power of supervision and decisions to Russia. You don't understand how dismal and unbreakable the system was (dozens of years it took to create), that's why this revolution happened. There wre no 'normal' means because democracy didn't exist. Of course the majority didn't expect shootings, they wre hoping for peaceful revolution - it did last three months - and Yan should have resigned. As he didn't , the whole thing escalated as people were fed up of just being ignored and powerless, even though note that only a small radical group was armed.
With the East - everyone is willing to hear them and PM offered the dialogue about economics/language, he said many times that he doesn't want to exclude anyone, but obviously in any country decisions aer not going to please everyone. Donetsk is divided too in what they want, so surely they must try to negotiate first. Smacks of activists being told to refuse any talks.

I suppose my point would be that although some argue that the borders of Ukraine are carved in stone, the country has only had its current borders since 1945, with another adjustment in 2014. The recent return of Crimea to Russia, the previous handing over of Crimea by Russia to the Ukrainian SSR in 1954, and the past history of Crimea reflect the reality of flexible borders, and constant to-ing and fro-ing of various regions and sometimes also the people who lived in them. The history of a city like /Lwow/Lviv/Lvov/Lemburg illustrates the constant flux.

Likewise, while it might even be easier to argue that the old borders of Ireland are in fact carved in stone, the political reality does not reflect this, and British troops have a long history of maintaining Ireland's status as part of a larger empire, and then maintaining the partitioned status quo from 1969 to 2007 -- an operation of 38 years involving approximately 300,000 troops.

A few pithy and pertinent comments here on the Ukraine situation.

I do not represent Ukrainians, math, I live in the UK for 20yrs and am not a citizen anymore. I was a mainly Russian speaking Ukrainian (but some Russians in the family) who lived in Kiev, therefore I can accurately relate what the life was under Ussr - so not stereotypes but what it was actually like, but the views I relate now are of the people who live there now and also I;'m relating what I see in debates on Ukrainian live tv (byy a progressive journalist who invites all sections of politicians to his programme). I have also relatives who live in Moscow and are citizens of russia - my cousin calls Putin an aggressor, a view held by those progressive russians who went on the march of peace to support Ukraine - thinking people yo uknow, intelligentsia and just anyone who holds democratic values.

As to Putin and Asians comment - come one, did you not understand that I was talking about HIS feelings and it was also said ironically? I meant China and Korea btw, not so much Kazakhstan etc, because they aer indeed culturally remote from Putin who is always proud to be russian. It's based entirely on his rhetoric about Ukraine in his CRIMEA SPEECH, being that russia and ukraine are not just neighbours but brothers (i.e. same roots culturally and ethnically) - the Asian former republics aer just neighbours (he also mentioned Belarus as one of trio of brothers at another point) - and going on about the ancient Kiev Rus being the mother of Russia, as indeed it was. He was upset and trying to appeal to Ukraine based on this ethnic principle - HE is the one who puts it first before differences in political views and leanings of people. Do you have to be so obtuse and to take a sentence out of context? and to be so relentlessly anti-west? You know what, I promise you that if you lived in the Ussr, you wouldn'tbe so dismissive of the 'stereotypes'. Please don't insult me by implying that I'm some nationalist, same as yo u did regarding PJ btw. I've never been especially patriotic even, let alone a nationalist. But I understand Putin's unhappiness because his feeling reflect general Slavonic solidarity (nothing wrong with this per se, same as Scandinavians feel affinity to each other). What is wrong, is him trying to keep someone under his influence if they don't want to be kept there regardless of 'the blood ties'.

yes, I agree that the borders have shifted, and that Lviv wasn't even part of ussr pre ww2. that;s why the real radicals of the right sector come from there largely. Crimea - they had a right for referendum, but I wish it was done in a different way, with russian troops sticking to their bases, not on the ground. especially should have let the Ukraininan troops, who wre stationed there doing their job, exit with dignity, not to surround them at their bases and then make them choose on the spot which side they aer on. Many Ukrainians had to leave their homes and move to Ukraine within three weeks - the main thing is, that during this move by the Russians everyone in Ukraine lived in fear of what else to expect. That's hardly respectful towards the whole population.

Tymoshenko was very willing to participate in politics and get rich doing business in a country where she alleges she couldn't be honest even if she tried? Anyone voting for her will get the government they deserve, so.

Here is a cautionary tale for you, Beaglesaresweet, about the limits of the rule of law and the enormous temptations lying in the path of arrogant, larcenous individuals and unscrupulous politicians when massive amounts of other people's money come their way in the form of EU grants for this, and bank loans for that:

The Republic of Ireland has been a member of the EEC and the subsequent EU since 1973. You would expect therefore that there might be some improvement of 'ideological sense' but it is very plain to see that is not how it worked, the reason being that once a cute hoor, always a cute hoor.

As background, the link between banks and mortgages and property development loans is politicians who control planning permission and zoning boards at county level, as well as state development initiatives for disadvantaged areas.

An overview of the Irish banking crisis

Cozy relationships between developers and Anglo Irish Bank - the 'Golden Circle'

A note on Sean FitzPatrick, former chairman of Anglo Irish Bank:
'In an RTÉ Radio 1 interview... in October 2008, FitzPatrick denied critics' charges that the bank had been reckless in making too many big loans to property developers as Ireland's housing bubble grew. While saying he was grateful for the state's help, he refused to offer taxpayers an apology, saying
"The cause of our problems are global, so I can't say sorry with any degree of sincerity and decency. But I can say thank you."
FitzPatrick addressed the government in another speech on the same day and recommended cutting spending on what he called the "sacred cows" of Irish society: children, the elderly and health care. FitzPatrick was declared bankrupt on 12 July 2010'
Nice

Here is how two officials at Anglo Irish Bank connived together to get Irish taxpayers to foot their bills back in 2008:
'For the first time, taxpayers get an exclusive insight into the banking shenanigans that cost Ireland our sovereignty.'

tapes/angloirish Merkel disgust at the recent revelations. She rightly points out what a slap in the face of ordinary people this is. Irish Taoiseach promises an inquiry.

In other words, if you are inclined to be a crook before billions in other people's money come your way, you are very likely to remain a crook after those billions arrive too -- the only difference Ukraine can expect is that the crooks both old and new will now be able to get rich on EU and IMF money.

Beaglesaresweet, English isn't your first language and I think you should assume that maybe you are misunderstanding me, and re-read my posts carefully before you start laying into me for misunderstanding what you write.

The allegation that the only thing stopping Ukrainians from being honest was Russians or 'the Russian way', and if only Ukrainians could be free of Russian influence they would all be whiter than the driven snow is such a load of poppycock I don't know how a grown adult could even think it, let alone post it in all seriousness.

What force or power or influence made thieves of the Irish born and Irish bred and Irish educated executives of Anglo Irish Bank and their fellow crooks, the Irish politicians and their friends the businessmen who donated millions to the political parties? Was it the British?

Math, you are right, "whiter than the driven snow" is poppycock and you are silly to introduce the idea.

However I gather that you believe the entire world is full of nothing but rogues and crooks so perhaps you find it hard to believe there are people trying to work for a better world.

math I KNOW she was willing to participate (T.), that was besides the pint which I was making that time about how the old system was inaccessible to true democrats (so by definition T. wasn't one of those) - I already said many times that she is a hypocrite but the main point is, she wouldn't be at the top at that time is she wasn't corrupt and willing to lie, just to illustrate the system anmd her unsuitability as a democratic leader now - not to defend her! that's why AS I SAID, her rating is low as she's tainted by being part of the old system, and AS I ALSO SAID, it would be bad for the country if she was elected - I can't stand her personally, and thankfully her supporters aer not a big group now. She is trying to wriggle out by now turning completely against Russia and Putin and bordering on right sector rhetoric, while when she wanted to grab the money it suited her. People want fresh faces - even if that's those who were in government before (as ministers) but not at the top - those are fresh enough from the point of view that they were nowhere near the top, and obviously you can't just pluck a new face from the street, the new leaders need understanding of the old system to make reforms - led by the EU legislation.

math, I understand perfectly well and haven't had problems with anyone else on MN which I use a lot, apart from you. No one ever asked on MN whether English isn't my first lang. I admit I don't type well and am too impatient to correct typos, but I haven't been misunderstood in my posts. There are always some misunderstandings among posters, incl. native english speakers too on here (obviously!), but in your case - you regularly distort a lot of what I said and put words and add what wasn't there. , and specifically quote out of context, so I have to keep reminding you of the context. Putin and Asians are an example - I was commenting on his speech, and if you listened to that carefully you would hear his 'brothers' rhetoric where he did not include any asian ex-republics, let alone china or korea (well why should he?), and you'd know that it was nothing to do with my own anti-Asian leanings. Bear in mind that I understand people's mentality over there because I grew up there and I listen to Russian TV now too, so it's not even outdated as you might say - Russians (and Ukrainians) never felt at one culturally/religiously wit the Asians, Russian popular figures often talk openly about the cultural differences, plus as PJ said there is a strong element in Russia that wants to fight immigration from the former Asian republics.

I will read about the Irish aspect you've linked to, later.

exactly, PJ, I find math's attitude extremely cynical and negative, especially as far as current Ukrainian govt is concerned. Imo they are trying their best to put Ukraine on the right track (momentous task! ) otherwise they wouldn't be signing anything with the EU, it would be much easier for them to join the stealing elite of the old by not signing. Yatesniuk has a good attitude and talks a lot of sense about the economics in interviews and when questioned on debate programmes. Yes, obviously it nedsd to be seen how the govt evolves, but so far they aer on the right track. Nor is Yatseniuk a nazi revivalist, he is level -headed and young, and cares for his country, and is offering dialogue to all including the East and also russia, and I think he should stay on as PM.

I don't see how Poroshenko wasn't part of the old system. He seems to have managed to find a way to profit from it and he participated in government as a minister. Yet he is ahead in the opinion polls.

I agree she would be a disaster for Ukraine if elected, but I am concerned that in order to avoid humiliation at the polls she has adopted the rhetoric and stance of the Right. This will only favour the growth of the Right at the end of the day. Voters who are inclined to be in that general camp will find her tainted by her past but may see the Right/Yarosh as the wave of the future.

The problem with the desire for 'fresh faces' and individuals and parties that have not been tainted by involvement at any sort of official high level in politics is that voters who feel this impatience with the past are willing to support a political platform that is militant and extremist and irresponsible -- fundamentally a populist party with an appeal to one particular region of Ukraine and one particular brand of the national myth. The parties of the Right have no experience of the sort of political skill or the necessary ability to participate in the give and take that make for effective political participation. We have seen the fisticuffs in parliament and the roughing up of the TV station head, with an MP who clearly prefers the clenched fist method of political persuasion up to his ponytail in both incidents.

Pandering to the Right is not new in Ukrainian politics; it was a feature of the presidency of Yushchenko. The result was legitimacy for parties whose views alarm and dismay both the rest of Europe and the state of Israel. The Simon Wiesenthal Centre has condemned the Bandera cult in Ukraine.

The continued flirting with the Right as well as recent attacks on Jews in Ukraine has alarmed Israel enough to prompt an official-level meeting with Dmitriy Yarosh to ask for assurance on the question of Right Sector's position on Ukrainian Jews.

In short, I think you underestimate how elements of the situation that has developed play directly into the hands of the Right. I think you are too quick to dismiss them as a growing force. Just because you want a certain outcome for Ukraine I don't think there is anyone who doesn't want to see Ukraine thriving and stable and able to pay its bills because a bankrupt state in turmoil is a disaster for everyone, including Russia doesn't mean you should dismiss the growing influence of the Right. For all her faults, Tymoshenko seems to appreciate the way the wind is blowing.

It's not cynicism to look at right wing parties marching through the streets at night with flags and torches, chanting as they go, and wonder where I might have seen all of this before, and ask myself where it all led that previous time. It's not cynicism to predict that when cuts in pensions and subsidies kick in, and public sector jobs get cut, as well as private sector jobs in industries that will be reshaped to complement instead of competing against existing western European industries, Ukraine will face renewed and very bitter political unrest which will feature the Right as well as Communist or other militant left parties as prominent and growing forces, all attacking the centre. Neither the Right nor the far left have much interest in democracy.

'For all her faults, Tymoshenko seems to appreciate the way the wind is blowing.'

But of course, being a charlatan, she responds by stooping to the lower level.

You can always tell a charlatan by the level of discourse, the choice of the low road when faced with a choice.

No matter what sort of situation someone is in, there is always has the choice of taking the principled position.

further depressing news

There is reportedly a pattern that the initial assaults are carried out by a squad of heavily armed men in uniforms with no insignia, who then hand over to local gangs and are taken to the next site.

This is not unlike the events in Crimea where Russian troops took the insignia off their uniforms and vehicles when seizing Ukrainian bases. Apart from Mr Putin I doubt there is anyone who seriously claims that these are just local people who bought their uniforms, weapons and vehicles in some shop. Russia is particularly insistent that the armed men should not be tackled with arms.

The Russian media provides strong support for Mr Putin's actions, and provides suitable propaganda

"Surveys show that 88% of Russians share Olga's view: that Crimea joining Russia is a positive development.

According to another recent poll, 88% of Russians - the same figure - get their news primarily from television. That reflects the degree to which TV in Russia forms public opinion.

And since TV here is almost completely under the control or influence of the state, viewers get very much the Kremlin's view of events: that Russia has acted properly, that the authorities in Kiev are illegitimate and that Russian speakers in Ukraine are suffering persecution

The Ukrainian government dismisses that as propaganda.

Outside a block of flats in Tchaikovskovo, I ask a pensioner called Galina whether she thinks that everything Russian TV reports about Ukraine is true. Galina seems taken aback by the question.

"What? Are they distorting things?" she asks. There is a long pause. "No, that can't be. We believe it all. Are you saying it's not all true?" Another pause. "No, I believe our TV."

Galina becomes suspicious of my questions.

"Why are you asking these things? Is England planning to attack us?"

France24 reported on a demonstration in Moscow against repression of journalists and Ukraine denying entry to journalists holding Russian passports, including one from that well known mouthpiece of the Kremlin, Forbes magazine.

They're also reporting that they've been to try to find the 'massive build up of Russian troops' on the eastern border, but say that if they are there they're hidden really well. This was just before they were picked up by the FSB and taken to a village 30km from the border, where the civilians are worried about 'American mercenaries' (the Greystone lot I wrote about ages ago) and wonder why they are there and what they're up to.

RT is reporting 3 men were killed, one from the separatists and two from Right Sector after men from Right Sector opened fire with a machine gun. France24 report that they were Ukrainian troops who opened fire, but concurs about the identities of those dead.

I note there were no reports on the BBC, nor any British based mainstream media, on anti austerity marches in Paris and Rome. Indeed, the march in Rome turned into a riot. Should Ukraine accept the IMF plan to bail out the foreign banks this will be their future.

DoctorTwo Mon 14-Apr-14 09:20:18
France24 reported on a demonstration in Moscow against repression of journalists and Ukraine denying entry to journalists holding Russian passports

It's great to know that demonstrations are sometimes permitted in Moscow (provided that they follow the official line)

Sadly, critical demonstrations are not permitted, even by small groups of people who are holding up non-existent banners.

It was a protest against Russian suppression of journalism, much the same as is happening in the US. Barrett Browning being a case in point.

and they weren't arrested? That's great news.

Interesting to note the Ukrainian president is still playing political games, mentioning an all-Ukraine referendum on the future shape of Ukraine - federal or unitary. An all-Ukrainian referendum is likely to rubber stamp the wishes of the west.

This of course will do nothing to allay the fears of Russian speakers that they will suffer the same fate as ethnic Russians in the Baltic states where ethnic Russians are effectively stateless persons without civil rights while people of other ethnicities who speak languages other than Lithuanian, Latvian and Estonian are citizens and enjoy civil rights.

The presidential gamesmanship can't be going down too well in Berlin. It contributes nothing towards stability either in the short term or in the long term. The parties that have sunk so much money into Ukraine shouldn't have to remind the Yatseniuk government that they expect from the government some sign of ability to solve problems and not exacerbate them.

On Monday afternoon White House spokesman Jay Carney confirmed that CIA Director John Brennan visited Ukrainian capital Kiev over the weekend and met with high-ranked Ukrainian officials.

But the US government says Ukraine is nowt to do with them. Despite Nuland putting Yatseniuk forward as preferred leader. Of course he is, he's a banker, he'll dance to the IMF tune and fuck the people. Jay Carney and Jen Psaki are corporate shills posing as government spokeschaps.

the little green men are not so shy now

UN Human Rights panel -- 'in a report after a hearing with Latvian officials earlier this month, the committee spotlighted the status of "non-citizens" and linguistic minorities in the Baltic state'

'The committee said it was concerned over the "discriminatory effects of the language proficiency requirement on the employment and work of minority groups and at the exclusion of 'non-citizen' residents from certain professions in the private sector".
Latvia argues that its legislation was essential to right the wrongs of the Soviet era.'

Latvia is not a bit bashful about the sheer vindictiveness of this policy.

Estonia and especially Latvia have shown a fine example of what can happen to ethnic and linguistic minorities when spite and triumphalism and rabid nationalism run amok.

To harken back to Northern Ireland, the position of the Catholic minority there was essentially the same as that of Baltic 'non-citizens', sparking a Civil Rights campaign modelled on the Civil Rights campaign of the US (a state not noted for its dedication to the rights of minorities until very late in the day ). The majority in Northern Ireland reaped what it sowed.

I heard from a Reuters article that $70billion was moved out of Russia in the last quarter, by foreign investors wishing to repatriate their funds, and by Russians looking for somewhere safer. This is more than the $63Bn lost in the whole of 2013, which was, apparently, a very bad year. It will be interesting to see what the capital moves are in 2Q14. Perhaps there will be some foreign investors wishing to put money into Russia. I hear prices are very depressed.

I was surprised to find that the Rouble:Euro exchange rate is not on FT.com, but from another site I see that a year ago there were about 00.24 Euro to the Rouble, and now there are about 00.20, so it has lost more than 15% of its value.

So far, sanctions have not started to bite much.

I suppose it is lucky for Russia that it does not care about sanctions and considers that it can manage perfectly well. Perhaps if it manages to seize Ukraine's oil and gas fields, which are mostly in the East of Ukraine, it can make some money out of them.

The FT says that

Throughout the Ukraine crisis the Obama administration has been willing to punish Russia over its actions. But EU member states, some of which remain highly reliant on Moscow for energy needs, remain divided over what to do.

European governments and business leaders need to accept that this must change. Russia’s Achilles heel throughout this crisis has been its economy. If Mr Putin persists in his attempt to destabilise Ukraine, European leaders need to be prepared to apply punishment – even if this means inflicting some pain on their own economies.

However, while the EU and RoW has been dragging its feet, Russians and others are sending the Russian economy into decline. With the Rouble devaluing at nearly 20% in a year, inward investment at a standstill, and the markets in long term decline, Russians are sending their money abroad, and foreigners are taking theirs home.

Earlier Putin's supporters warned that Russia would destabilise the West by selling off their Western bonds below market value. Russia's losses are already enormous. Math told us This means Russia will most likely exercise the option of selling (or dumping) its $3bn in Eurobonds per the agreement of late last year. but so far this year, Russia has seen that much fleeing every two days.

Putin was able to encourage Crimea's aging population by doubling their pensions. With the Rouble devaluing at nearly 20% in a year, where will the money come from to continue his generosity?

today a Euro will buy you 49.9 Roubles. A year ago it was 41.8

today the Moscow stock market fell by 2.64% after a violent drop when Putin's Crimea adventure began.

A successful military adventure always increases a leader's popularity at home for a while, as Mussolini, Galtieri and Thatcher knew. The results however last much longer.

In the short term, Putin's tactic of intimidating and seizing land from its weaker neighbours with military might is succeeding. The last Soviet Union collapsed from its own weakness. How long will Putin's reconstructed Greater Russia last?