Can we have a Ukraine/ Russia/ Crimea thread for dummies?

[chicaguapa]

In other words, could someone explain the situation in really simple terms please. I don't understand it but feel it's important and I should know what's going on.

And because DD(12) asked me this morning and I couldn't answer.

[PigletJohn]

It's OK, math, I realise that as a Putin supporter you cannot admit that Russia has instigated a military invasion and occupation of a neighbour.

[mathanxiety]

An assessment of Ukrainian politics and economy by the Carnegie Foundation

[mathanxiety]

And now with tensions high in Donetsk and a referendum close in Crimea, it will be interesting to see how the US frames local expressions of desire for self determination, upswellings of the popular will, etc.

It is hard to see how they could be anything but supportive, or how they could take any course but to respect the will of the citizens and acknowledge whatever the outcome may be. After all is this not what happened in Kiev -- people taking to the streets to effect political change? Maybe they will even invite a local leader to lunch in the White House.

[mathanxiety]

An Autonomous Republic, PigletJohn.

[PigletJohn]

It's OK, math, I realise that as a Putin supporter you cannot admit that Russia has instigated a military invasion and occupation of a neighbour.

Are you using the "no they didn't" or the "anyway, it was justified" argument today?

[mathanxiety]

Are you taking your usual tack of restating your opinion on a contentious issue over and over in hopes of browbeating into submission anyone who disagrees with you?

[mathanxiety]

Or are you hoping to bore the thread into silence?

[PigletJohn]

I haven't noticed you being browbeaten into submission. When did it happen?

But as I say, I realise that as a Putin supporter you cannot admit that Russia has instigated a military invasion and occupation of a neighbour.

Speaking of restating, I see you have C&Pd the same thing again.

[mathanxiety]

I am getting very bored though.

I see you once again resort to name calling on a discussion thread, with the clear intention of stifling debate. I always thought poo throwing as a means of communication was confined to chimpanzees but I see I was mistaken.

Are you planning on posting a 9-point reductio ad absurdum of other posters' opinions here? That's a more sophisticated version of poo throwing that would probably go down better.

[mathanxiety]

The C&P'd thing was most interesting as a really good example of interference in the affairs of a sovereign state by another.

By your derisive tone wrt the intercepted call, it is apparent that you are not interested in any sort of factual narrative here.

[PigletJohn]

"I see you once again resort to name calling on a discussion thread, with the clear intention of stifling debate. I always thought poo throwing as a means of communication was confined to chimpanzees but I see I was mistaken."

Is this the same mathanxiety who wrote

" maybe your pro US bias keeps you from acknowledging the role of the US in foolishly encouraging regime change in a sovereign state by means of mob action."

[mathanxiety]

So you are not entirely averse to C&Ping then?

What better way to dodge the real issue of aggressive and unwarranted interference in not one but two backyards by the US than by continuous shrieking about one disputed matter that is most likely going to be a non-starter on the international stage. It seems to me that you are most keen to completely ignore context and instead bleat on about an alleged invasion of Ukraine as if events in Crimea have occurred in a complete vacuum.

Does your US bias keep you from acknowledging the role of the US in foolishly encouraging regime change in a sovereign state by means of mob action?

Or are you merely incredibly thick?

[mathanxiety]

Reasons why harping on about 'the invasion of Ukraine' is a bit stupid. The main one of course is that Crimea is virtually certain to vote for reunification with Russia, and the question shifts to:

1. What happens next?
   
2. What is happening in eastern Ukraine?
   And the next question is -- since it looks as if the people there are expressing their political views by means of bricks and broken bottles on the streets just as in Kiev, will that expose the foolishness of the US in encouraging political change by means of mob action in the streets?

[PigletJohn]

A poor attempt at diversion.

You refuse to admit that Russia has instigated a military invasion and occupation of its neighbour. Your C&P and verbiage are pointless.

[mathanxiety]

You couldn't possibly have read that last article. If you had, you would be busy throwing darts at the photo of You Know Who.

[claig]

I think it will get worse. I think it may lead to Russia moving in to parts of Eastern Ukraine. The whole thing is a tragedy.

Clearly, the revolution was planned and the EU then stepped in and recognised the new government as legitimate, drew up a deal, which was not implemented by the Maidan and we are where we are now.

I think oil, gas, money etc are a large factor in what has happened. I think a wedge has been created between the EU and Russia and the US will probably vote to end restrictions on exporting their gas abroad. Companies in America are in favour of restrictions on gas exports in order to keep prices low in the States, but clearly the gas companies have surplus gas that can earn more abroad. The other advantage of this wedge is that it will force the EU to become less dependent on Russian gas and more dependent on imports from the States and elsewhere and more favourable to fracking in the EU which will weaken Russia's economic advantage from its gas exports. One aim is to exclude Russia from the European family of nations and probably to try and hurt them economically in order to create revolts among people and oligarchs which will eventually bring down Putin.

Germany is talking tough and Germany has played a role in backing Klitschko etc and therefore there is probably a wedge between Germany and Russia now as well as the wedge between the States and Russia.

I think Ukraine may now end up being split. The EU would have liked access to the coal and minerals, many of which are in the East, but I think Russia will probably prevent that from happening.

I think it could descend into a civil war, but I don't think the West will get involved directly because the main objective was not to take all of Ukraine in to the Western sphere of influence. I think the planners knew what would happen if they backed the revolution and the far-right element of it and realised that that would not be a way to win over all of Ukraine to Western influence.

I think the Sochi Paralympics ends on Sunday, which is the day of the Crimea referendum. If things get worse, then I think it will be after that.

[mathanxiety]

I think you are taking the concept of explanation for dummies too far, PigletJohn. Harping on and on and on and on and on (ad nauseum) about one controversial detail of what is going on is an insult to intelligence.

[mathanxiety]

Your major mistake here PigletJohn is to keep on insisting the thread (or the situation in Ukraine) is about a military invasion and occupation.

[PigletJohn]

Oh math, you are funny. Describing a military invasion and occupation as a "controversial detail"

[mathanxiety]

I personally find a description of someone's posts as 'verbiage' or 'poor attempts at diversion' just because I won't engage with your constantly restated version of reality more than a bit arrogant.

[PigletJohn]

maybe your pro Putin bias keeps you from acknowledging it.

[PigletJohn]

Or are you merely incredibly thick?