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Can we have a Ukraine/ Russia/ Crimea thread for dummies?

977 replies

chicaguapa · 06/03/2014 11:47

In other words, could someone explain the situation in really simple terms please. I don't understand it but feel it's important and I should know what's going on.

And because DD(12) asked me this morning and I couldn't answer.

OP posts:
PigletJohn · 11/04/2014 18:39

with plenty of neo-Nazi and right-wing extremists of their own, Russian media are distributing faked and biased propaganda to undermine Ukraine.
A doctored photo of an Adolf Hitler poster hanging from Kiev's city council building has been circulated by the head of a Russian TV station

No doubt there are some people who will believe it.

PigletJohn · 11/04/2014 18:43

hooray for Russian TV!

mathanxiety · 11/04/2014 18:46

I don't think Russia can be faulted for asking for upfront payments for gas. Once bitten, twice shy, after all. Cutting off supply from a defaulter is how business works.

Western Europe will very possibly need collateral for any gas reverse-piped to Ukraine. It would be foolish not to ask Ukraine to pawn its assets given its dire financial situation and given that Russia holds billions in Eurobonds that it can dump whenever Ukrainian debt/GDP ratio rises to 60%.

As Putin has pointed out, resolving the issue of Ukraine's indebtedness to Russia for gas is in everyone's best interest.

PigletJohn · 11/04/2014 18:46

is open debate permitted in Russia?

claig · 11/04/2014 18:57

It looks like Yats has backed down over referendums

"In an attempt to quell the deepening crisis in eastern Ukraine, the interim prime minister has offered to devolve more power to the regions.

Arseniy Yatsenyuk met officials in Donetsk on Friday, where pro-Russian separatists are occupying government buildings and demanding a referendum on independence from Kiev."

www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/11/ukraine-pm-power-regions-donetsk-referendum

Russia Today is reporting that the elite Alpha unit of the Berkut refused to obey orders

"The U-turn comes after Ukraine’s elite Alpha unit reportedly refused to obey an order to besiege protester-held buildings. At a session of law enforcement officials in Donetsk, one of the Alpha commanders said that he and his men are a force intended for rescuing hostages and fighting terrorism and will only act in accordance with the law, local media reported.

The unconfirmed act of defiance comes days after the siege by police of a protesters-seized building in Kharkov, which ended with dozens of activists being arrested. On Thursday, a local police lieutenant-colonel spoke to the media, claiming that he and other officers had been deceived by the Kiev authorities. He claimed that they were sent to take over the building under the pretext that it was held by dangerous armed bandits. In fact the protesters had only improvised clubs and offered no resistance to the storming troops.

The officer, Andrey Chuikov, said he would no longer take “criminal” orders and announced his resignation from the police, adding that he would be sacked anyway by his superiors for speaking to the press."

rt.com/news/ukraine-protest-deadline-expires-856/

The Guardian reported two days ago on the protestors in Luhansk and claims that some of theem are elite Alpha units of the Berkut

"You want to know our demands, talk to the people," said a masked commander of the pro-Russian protesters occupying the security service headquarters in Luhansk.

The commander declined to provide his name but said he had fought protesters during deadly clashes in Kiev as a member of the infamous Berkut riot police, lifting his shirt to show a long scar.

"I'll tell you this much: We will fight these faggots," he said, referring to the new government in Kiev.

As negotiations continued on Wednesday with government representatives, the apparently well-organised group of pro-Russian protesters who call themselves the Army of the Southeast struck a defiant stance after seizing the security service building on Sunday.

Members of the building's defence who identified themselves as former Berkut (special police) officers from other regions said they would not to fire first but that if attacked they would fight back until Russian forces arrived.

The Kremlin has said it is prepared to intervene as in Crimea to protect ethnic Russians in other parts of Ukraine, and western generals have reported a Russian troop buildup along the border.

The masked commander said the security service building's defence included him and 42 other former members of the elite Alpha division of the now-disbanded Berkut, who were known as former president Viktor Yanukovich's shock troops during the Euromaidan protests in Kiev. He said the former president, who fled to Russia in February, had betrayed them."

...

"A flier from the Army of the Southeast handed out by protesters in Luhansk called for a referendum "for our future together with Russia and the future of our Slavic Orthodox people, which is on the edge of destruction because of politicians who have been bought".

Officials in Kiev and Washington have said Russia organised the protests in eastern Ukraine, but the masked commander said all those inside the building were Ukrainian citizens, as several middle-aged onlookers brandished their Ukrainian passports.

He denied Ukrainian media reports that the protesters had obtained more than 1,000 firearms after seizing the building. But in a video by occupiers posted on Tuesday, the speaker is flanked by three men with machine guns.

Another masked man manning a street barricade, who said he had served in Kiev as a Berkut officer but was from the nearby region of Zaporozhye, said the building's defenders had "enough weapons for the whole Bandera regime". Many protesters argue that the Kiev government is dominated by nationalists from western Ukraine, where dozens of monuments commemorate the nationalist leader Stepan Bandera, who fought for Ukrainian independence but also collaborated with Nazi invaders during the second world war."

www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/10/luhansk-protesters-occupy-security-headquarters

I am not sure that Yats has enough backing to take on the protestors.

PigletJohn · 11/04/2014 19:01

when you say "Members of the building's defence who identified themselves as former Berkut (special police) officers"

do you mean this lot?

claig · 11/04/2014 19:04

Yes, I means Ukrainian state special police forces charged with maintaining law and order, unlike paid for Right Sector activists who toppled an elected President.

PigletJohn · 11/04/2014 19:06

when you use the words "maintaining law and order" do you include "fatally shooting dozens of unarmed demonstrators?"

claig · 11/04/2014 19:08

I think an investigation into who the snipers were is long overdue.

"Ukraine crisis: bugged call reveals conspiracy theory about Kiev snipers"

...

"What was quite disturbing, this same Olga told that, well, all the evidence shows that people who were killed by snipers from both sides, among policemen and people from the streets, that they were the same snipers killing people from both sides," Paet said.

"So she also showed me some photos, she said that as medical doctor, she can say it is the same handwriting, the same type of bullets, and it's really disturbing that now the new coalition, that they don't want to investigate what exactly happened."

" So there is a stronger and stronger understanding that behind snipers it was not Yanukovych, it was somebody from the new coalition ," Paet says.

Ashton replies: "I think we do want to investigate. I didn't pick that up, that's interesting. Gosh," Ashton says."

www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/05/ukraine-bugged-call-catherine-ashton-urmas-paet

Gosh!

claig · 11/04/2014 19:08

'when you use the words "maintaining law and order" do you include "fatally shooting dozens of unarmed demonstrators?"'

No, see post above. Gosh!

PigletJohn · 11/04/2014 19:10

The Estonian foreign ministry confirmed the leaked conversation was accurate. It said: "Foreign minister Paet was giving an overview of what he had heard in Kiev and expressed concern over the situation on the ground. We reject the claim that Paet was giving an assessment of the opposition's involvement in the violence."

PigletJohn · 11/04/2014 19:11

when you use the words "maintaining law and order" do you include breaking into a government building and stealing guns from the armoury?

mathanxiety · 11/04/2014 19:11

Yatsuniuk was talking very tough until very recently about the 'terrorists' in the east. Clearly something very significant forced the climbdown. That train of events makes sense, Claig, especially in light of reports that policing has broken down all over Ukraine and police officers are as little enamoured of the Kiev government as anyone else is. It also makes sense in light of reports that Ukrainian officers and servicemen joined the Russian forces in Crimea out of a sense of personal conviction.

I do not think he can attempt to just roll over the protestors. It is reported that negotiations are under way for an end to the standoff which will include a promise not to prosecute the activists. A victory for freedom of speech perhaps?

Whether he can sell the idea of a referendum on greater autonomy for eastern regions and Russian language rights to the Right remains to be seen.

PigletJohn · 11/04/2014 19:12

have you watched the videos, btw?

PigletJohn · 11/04/2014 19:19

have a look at 00.54 to 01:19. Perhaps 01:26 to 01:50 is what you have in mind. But observe 02:00 to 02:25

Of course, Russian propaganda has its own axe to grind.

claig · 11/04/2014 19:26

The BBC video?
Which showed heavily armed officers earlier in the day at the nearby building?

That is not proof. Putin and Lavrov have called for an independent UN investigation into who the snipers were - a bit like the independent UN inquiry which found no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq and the independent UN nquiry that could not say that the sarin gas attack in Syria was carried out by Assad. As far as I know, Yats, has not instigated a UN inquiry. Gosh!

PigletJohn · 11/04/2014 19:30

Claig "That is not proof."

And a bugged telephone conversation, distributed for propaganda purposes, of what someone who was not there, giving an overview of what he had heard is pretty well entirely worthless.

It is however what you added.

claig · 11/04/2014 19:33

Well Baroness Ashton said "gosh" and seemed to want to investigate it. But I don't know what has happened since and whether it has all been dropped and if Yats will ask for an independent UN inquiry.

"Ashton replies: "I think we do want to investigate. I didn't pick that up, that's interesting. Gosh," Ashton says."

mathanxiety · 11/04/2014 19:34

This idea sounds suitable vague and euphemistic.

Maybe it will end up like this mission to restore law and order?

PigletJohn · 11/04/2014 19:37

Most people want to have an independent inquiry. You have seen the results of the initial enquiry, and you have looked at both the videos, especially 00:54 to 01:09 for example.

I met someone in the street yesterday who, giving an overview of what he had heard, told me that perhaps Elvis is alive and working in a chip shop.

Gosh! I said

PigletJohn · 11/04/2014 19:40

that's an interesting website, math

Nothing changes, eh?

claig · 11/04/2014 19:46

The video? The BBC video?

'I met someone in the street yesterday who, giving an overview of what he had heard, told me that perhaps Elvis is alive and working in a chip shop.'

Was that Yats? That sounds like the standard of proof that Yats might use.

PigletJohn · 11/04/2014 19:57
PigletJohn · 11/04/2014 20:06

"Was that Yats?"

No, he said his name was Paet

Do you attach much importance to his overview of what he had heard, this time?