Another Path - part IV

[321zyx]

Apologies if I've done this wrong! I seemed to have filled up the last thread, hopefully the abbreviated title is ok!

Oh - here's a table that shows all independents (day and boarding - the last one showed mixed boarding only)

A Levels - www.best-schools.co.uk/uk-school-league-tables/list-of-league-tables/top-100-schools-by-a-level

GCSES - www.best-schools.co.uk/uk-school-league-tables/list-of-league-tables/top-100-schools-by-gcse

Wow ..one of the top 50 listed there has 64% A*/A versus 84% in 2020

To be fair, the same pattern can be seen in my local state schools.

That table is shocking. A pretty mediocre independent quite near us had 20% grade inflation. One of the deputies at our boys' school, meanwhile, was proud that they'd kept grade inflation under 5%. I thought that was a good thing too, but with some other schools taking the piss to an extent I hadn't imagined, it feels like a disadvantage for our kids . Thanks for posting it, @MidLifeCrisis007 - genuinely eye-opening.

Does anyone know if it's possible to see similar data for state schools? The DfE didn't publish performance data for 2020 afaik so I guess it's not readily available unless schools make it public. And a lot don't publicize the A*-A measure anyway.

It's unfair to blame the grade inflation on those minor public schools that stand out in those tables though @LoonvanBoon.

Nationally the % of A and A stars rose from 25.2% in 2019 to 37.7% in 2020 which is a nigh on 50% improvement.

Most of the top independents played a straight bat and reported pretty modest levels of grade inflation. Meanwhile many of the "minor" public schools saw at least 20%-30% improvement. But while your average state school would have a lot less children achieving those top grades in any given year, I think there was enormous grade inflation at some/many state schools too. Sadly the data to prove it doesn't seem to be readily available. And that is disappointing.

Interesting @MidLifeCrisis007 I’m surprised to see North London Collegiate so far down for A levels (33) compared to GCSE (6)

Given that universities will have access to the same data and that we don't really know what will happen wrt A levels next year, they may have shot themselves in the foot with universities being unable to differentiate between their genuinely top students and those with ridiculous inflation.

bend so was I , re NLCS, but it does IB as well as Al evels so may be that was a factor. It has been in the top 3 - 5 of all schools of all sectors state and private, boys and girls.

Most of the schools have very little grade inflation - the better schools - on the table so in fact it shows how good not how shocking those schools are compared with those schools with the huge grade inflation. What a mess. I would never have cancelled exams even in 2020.

I've just got DH to go through his school's results and they had absolutely no A level grade inflation - 27% A*-A in 2020, down from 27.8% in 2019. That's a large comprehensive 6th form. There's obviously a lot of variation here, and it's not just down to school type - some individual schools have really tried it on, and got away with it. Unless they were just assuming they'd be strictly moderated downwards?

@LoonvanBoon

I've just got DH to go through his school's results and they had absolutely no A level grade inflation - 27% A*-A in 2020, down from 27.8% in 2019. That's a large comprehensive 6th form. There's obviously a lot of variation here, and it's not just down to school type - some individual schools have really tried it on, and got away with it. Unless they were just assuming they'd be strictly moderated downwards?

Out of interest, how were your DH's school's results impacted by the algorithm last Summer?

I'd be interested to know whether the algorithm targeted the sharks or everything swimming in the sea!

Most of the schools have very little grade inflation - the better schools - on the table so in fact it shows how good not how shocking those schools are compared with those schools with the huge grade inflation.

If you're looking at the same table @MidLifeCrisis007 posted that's just not correct, @Xenia (unless by 'the better schools' you mean only a very small number indeed).

Out of the top 100 independent schools listed, only 65 include their 2020 results. Out of those 65 I counted 15 with grade inflation 2019-20 at below 5%, including 3 with grade deflation. Then I counted 25 with grade inflation between 5 and 10%, 20 with inflation between 10 and 20%, and 5 with grade inflation above 20%. I haven't done the sums for the other table but iirc there were even more schools with very high grade inflation - I noticed Uppingham coming in at about 25%.

Now I'm not suggesting that there aren't plenty of state schools in the same position, and I wish we could see all the figures, but 45/65 schools with grade inflation above 5% is a substantial majority, and that includes over a third with more than 10% grade inflation. Hardly 'very little grade inflation'.

@MidLifeCrisis007, he says 'badly', but he's checking to see if he can find the spreadsheet right now.

Depends how you calculate the %ages.

e.g. Roedean School 54.80% in 2019, 79.20% last year.

You could say A/A* increased from 54.8% to 79.2%, which is 24.4%

or

An increase of 24.4% from 54.8% represents an increase itself of 45%.

I think the latter is most representative.

Oh wow, @TheFrendo, I never even thought of there being two ways to calculate it (you can tell I'm not a mathematician), but of course you're right - so the grade inflation in that table is higher than I thought.

@MidLifeCrisis007, he's struggling to find the whole school 'algorithmed' results spreadsheet. But looking at the subject he teaches, there wasn't a big difference with A* and A after CAGs were restored (they had 1xA restored) but they had 4 more students (cohort of 33) go up a grade or more at other grade boundaries. The algorithm dictated, eg, that their lowest ranked student had to have a U because of one student who flunked their exams (only U in years in this subject) in 2019. Their lowest performing student in 2020 got Ds in mocks and coursework so that downgrading was a bit traumatic for all concerned.

@LonnvanBoon was his school one of the ones that was large enough to do block rankings? If so, there should be less variation because of that.

I have to say that the algorithm for CIE actually upgraded some of our results for some subjects and then it went to CAGS the algorithm marks that had been upgraded as the better of the two grades counted so we ended up with a better percentage than if we had just CAGS or just algorithm!

@SATSmadness that sounds horrendously unfair and potentially in breach of the guidelines. I agree with chopc, if your DD feels she would have liked the opportunity to sit additional assessments she should have that opportunity- as should the rest of their cohort to be honest!

One of DS'a closest friends found out yesterday he has no offers for medicine this year. He is on the reserve list for Plymouth (was 2 marks off an offer apparently) so is waiting to see if anything comes of that - unlikely if other schools are also gaming the system.

@Pumpkintopf

Given that dd hasn't been included in the extra assessments, it's presumably already been decided what grade dd will be given from the previously set assessments (which they were told would be the only ones used for grading so forget your A* /borderline C/whatever record throughout Y12 & Y13 to date).

However, there is no guarantee that they've decided her performance was A. There's always the worry that they've decided she's a definite A not A or borderline A* (has no offers so won't cost her a Uni place ). There's obviously no way schools are going to discuss grades to put anyone's mind at rest at this point in time so the question can't be asked.

Who knows, maybe she misunderstood a question/made a silly mistake or two and didn't realise. If that's the case then if she had had the extra chance, she might have aced that assessment and put her self up to A* level.

But even if she had an A* achieved already, if it's best of 4 for her why is it best of 5 for a few others ?

It just seems wrong and destined to fuel grade inflation which has the effect of de-valuing the A or A* by comparison to next year's cohort's grades.

The trouble with percentages of course, is that in smaller classes ie: independents, one or two grades higher on one or two candidates makes a bigger difference in percentage terms. It's complex, although I agree it does look like some schools have played the system.

DD's school actually went down last year for A Levels, although slightly up for GCSE's. They recently issued a five year table of comparisons which only vary by one or two percentages points up or down per year, including last year. The other local private girls school haven't published their results, which is interesting in itself.

That's true, @BigWoollyJumpers (about the smaller class sizes), and on that basis I think I was a bit harsh on the school local to me whose results had gone up so dramatically. They publish their A level results, subject by subject, 2018-20, on their website (A*-B, so a slightly different measure than the one in the table, but helpful nonetheless), and they are indeed v small numbers - most subject cohorts under 10 - so v hard to see a pattern.

In some subjects it looks like there's massive inflation between 2019 and 2020, but then 2018's results were higher still, so the picture is more complex than at first sight.

I suppose some inflation was inevitable last year, because lots of students are genuinely borderline and could absolutely go into an exam and get, say, a B or an A; and it wouldn't have been fair for schools to give them the lower grade when they hadn't had chance to prove themselves. Also schools knew there would be some external moderation.

I'm still really concerned about the total lack of consistency this year, and you can't help but wonder how widespread something like @SATSmadness' DD's experience is.

@SATSmadness if she doesn't get an A star then appeal. Keep all records of every email or conversation as evidence. This is so wrong and unfair. OFQUAL would be v interested (so if want me to dob the school in after results day please feel free to DM me)
Last year our grades ended up inflated a bit. If they'd used just CAGs we'd have been pretty much the same but because it was best of them or algorithm we ended up with all the best marks. However if they'd just used the algorithm our results were 25% lower than previous years. It's called working hard !

I think the point is @mumsneedwine that in SATS DD's school, others with great offers are being given the opportunity to produce evidence of an A* where it may not exist at the moment. Sats DD doesn't know where she is as teachers are not allowed to say.

I think on results day it's too late.

DS school have been as transparent as possible. They have stated what evidence they are going to use for the results up to the last assessment. The marks for the last assessment will not be revealed nor will any idea of possible grades to fold. You should be able to work out from the raw data what grades they are thinking of eg to get an A* you need to get more than 90%. But this is impossible in essay subjects where it is extremely rare to get scores above 90%. Plus for Pre U they have to send the raw marks and the exam board decides on the final grade. The raw marks look scarily low ..........

The system sounds fair within DS school. But how can you compare it with another school?

I fear this years' AL results will not be taken seriously. However this is a real shame as I do believe our cohort has worked harder than any other cohort because of the circumstances they experienced.

@SATSmadness I just couldn't let the possible injustice go. It is grossly unfair and creates an uneven playing field in what already is an uneven playing field with other schools.

I would create an email address that had nothing to do with me name wise and I would email the sixth form enquiring why some students were allowed another assessment. I would also tell them that this is a temporary email address for fear or reprisal for your child in their sixth form, I wouldn't mention the lower years.

I fear this years' AL results will not be taken seriously Ds feels the same. All his maths tests and mocks where they sat actual past papers saw him achieve A*s in maths and Further maths. He feels now that it won't be believed by anyone because of the cohort he is in. Yes grades will be inflated for some but the damage is done to those achieving the high grades who have worked for them and earned them.

@chopc I agree. But @SATSmadness doesn't want to make a fuss now and has no offers to lose so appealing loses nothing this year. Hope that makes sense !
PS I'll happily dob them in now but no investigation is going to happen until results are sent in as it's not set in stone yet.