@LoonvanBoon I echo your feelings. I'm trying to convince myself that the applications are looked at holistically, but I'm not so sure it is always the case.
DD has all A at GCSEs (inc a 1st and 2nd national place), 4 As at AS and predicted 3A, Her BMAT was excellent, and I feel her PS was well-written and had a lot of relevant experience, albeit limited this year due to no hospital placements for most, I'm assuming the teachers ref was very good.
She felt her interviews went fine, but this is where an applicant will never know how they are viewed, but she was happy with her answers and didn't come out in tears!
However, she is the quietly confident type who is happy to chat, but she will never come across as cocky and exuberant. I wonder if this was her stumbling block?
Another factor could be college choice. It is total guesswork as to how how many apply to each college, so in all cases there has to be an element of luck if there are 30 or 130 dc applying for a course. Does the allocation of a second college really address this?
I know other unis with a college system tend to have one admission system that everyone undergoes, and college allocations are made afterwards. As a parent, I feel this would be less stressful, with one less 'x factor' unknown to deal with (especially coming from a school with a very poor history of sending students to Oxbridge).
Just my thoughts, who knows how it really works.....