Medicine 2021 - Part 3

[SATSmadness]

Hoping for interviews and offers all round, now and well into next year !

Arrgh torture @SATSmadness!

I just asked DD if she'd had 'spam' today and she said she got daily emails from Nottingham about student life etc. Probably related to her Mpharm offer but her heart skips a beat every time.

She had her interviews mid December so I can't quite believe we're still waiting all this time later. Think @LaLaFlottes was even earlier. The year of Covid I suppose.

@WithIcePlease - yes! 3 before Xmas and 1 in Jan so it all feels so long ago

@MaddieElla it feels like such a long wait doesn’t it!

So, it's official.

It's all down to the teachers instead of formal rigorous independent assessment this year.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-56157413

Now I guess Y13s are just waiting to see if the grades teachers have predicted previously will be the actual grades awarded. DD's asked me if she can appeal if they're not. She's adamant that it's just a waiting game now for her following a catch up/discussion session with many of the medicine applicant cohort and a UCAS adviser from school The underlying message, apart from "no news is good news at the moment", seems to have been "bear in mind the value of an offer, any offer, compared to the uncertainty of potentially going through the process again next year" but "don't forget that applying for medicine is often considered a 2 year process".

The main problem that I can foresee is that 2020's level of grade inflation and presumably the same again this year will have totally devalued the currency of an A*.

If exams go ahead as normal in 2022, will a teacher assessed A* in hand from 2021 potentially be seen as worth no more than a predicted A if pupils want to re-apply through UCAS in 2022 ?

Assuming that the announcement leads to an earlier cessation of schooling than had previously been mentioned, the silver lining could be that at least DD might be able to use the time to get additional relevant healthcare experience through volunteering.

If it was me I would not defer. Take an offer and go. Next year may be worse if lots of students decide to try (like this year but x 10). As a teacher I find this stupid - we have been begging since Sept for a process that could be used nationally, but what do we know.
In the end, the grades will be worth the same as people will forget which years covid hit. But for the next few years it's going to be bumpy.
Good luck to everyone.

Hi yes, I totally agree against not deferring if you receive any med offers this year. From my DD friends who have deferred with all A star grades in hand the grades are not making a difference at all this year, everything seems to be based on the interview as long as minimum requirements have been reached.

@mumsneedwine

I guess they thought that the problem with a national process would be that provision of lockdown learning over the past year has not been uniform nationally so it would introduce and element of inequity.

I agree too - it's such a shame as there will be less offers this year but there's nothing we can do.

I think it's going to be very competitive for the next couple of years but in reality, at least next year, the level of offers should be back to normal. I think having less offers for this cohort is the part I'm the most sad about.

The part that is likely to be very competitive next year I suppose is securing interviews. Cut off points will perhaps be really high again if there are so many more people applying.

However if interviews can be secured, it's all down to the interview and next year the interview:offer ratio should be back to normal hopefully.

DD has always seen this as a 2 year process. She has her plan B which is re-applying and gaining experience during a gap year. So we will see what happens.

I think at this point in time DD is of the mind set that if it's a 3 year process she will just keep on trying until she gets there!

I don't know what she would choose do as a back up plan if Medicine didn't work out after several attempts. She loves chemistry, or maybe she'd do BioMed, but she says she definitely wants to work in Healthcare.

Sorry i don't know why there is a grinning face in that post!

It should just say interview to offer ratio!

SATs - I'm of the same opinion, our dc's grades will definitely be devalued. I can only hope if we have to go through this process next year again, that a lot of emphasis will be put on GCSEs as a true measure of ability.

@LaLaFlottes am I assuming correctly your DD has the academic ability required?

If so she will definitely get there. So lovely to hear that a young person is so passionate about being a Doctor

I remember when I was going for my GP training schemes, when I wasn't successful, I was told by the person giving me the bad news that I WILL be a GP despite not being successful for that particular post. And I was ...

chopc think you for the reminder that our children will get there eventually, it might just take longer than these bright, ambitious young adults are used to. :)

@chopc thank you so much for you post and encouragement. It's kind of you to take the time. I'm glad things worked out well for you in your career

Yes, DD does seem to have the academic ability. She's on track for 3 x A stars and also A star for her EPQ and she did very well in the UCAT, although she did a huge amount of prep!

It's just these interviews that are so tricky - but hopefully she will make it, this year, or the next, or the next!!

@Iamsodonewith2020 you are so right in saying that it might just take them a little longer than they are used to - and as long as it all comes good in the end, that's what counts.

Good luck as always to all

@SATSmadness and @Lovecatsanddogs for most medical schools once you have met the standard offer, it makes no difference if you exceed it. The main exceptions to this are Exeter, Aberdeen and Cambridge. The vast majority will not differentiate between A and A, but they will treat all As as equal.

@Millylovespuddles be careful what you wish for if you think the medical schools should rely more on GCSEs - I will try to attach my summary of what has happened to A/8/9 grades in recent years, but A/8/9 grades increased from 11.2% in 2019 to 14.4% in 2020, so 28% more DC got those grades in 2020 (26% increase in A/A* grades). People with perfect grades will be fine, but there are a lot of people whose GCSE grades were inflated in 2020.

The grades will end up being generous this year, they have to be as the teachers cannot know which students would have under-performed on the day.

Most schools certainly should not be giving the UCAS grades as many of them have an optimistic policy and some are more cautious. At my DS's old school the A level students were asked what predictions they wanted and if they seemed reasonable, even if a bit aspirational, they accepted them. I have seen students on TSR getting their predictions increased if they wanted to apply to Exeter for Medicine. Data from 2019 UCAS end of cycle report attached.

Monkey - Maybe I didn't make myself clear, I meant looking at GCSE's for this cohort, so ability would have been tested in 2019, not that it becomes the norm. Their 2019 gcse's are their last 'real' results.

But I do have a huge concern about this year's A-level grades being diluted. My friend is delighted as her son will get AAA if it goes by teacher's predictions, yet she knows there is no way he'd achieve this in a real life scenario.

Teachers will NOT give predicted grades without evidence to back it up. Not unless they are an idiot ! There will be spot checks done and if a school is found to not be able to back up the grades given they will be in big trouble. So if the work is not there to prove that grade they shouldn't be given it. Last year, teachers gave CAGS as if a student had a good day - how could we decide they'd have a bad one! We will do the same this year so there will be some grade inflation, but if a student is a C they will not get an A ! We will make it as fair as we can.

@Millylovespuddles the medical schools can't discriminate against the 2020 GCSEs as grades in all years are officially equal. It is also a fact that a significant minority of students have GCSE profiles which do not accurately predict A level results. As long as they get AAA, they will be treated equally to applicants from any year at most medical schools. I think the UCAT and BMAT is the only thing which can be fairly used to compare all the different cohorts.

I expect the results for 2021 will be more reasonable than the 2020 results, but have to be inflated on the "all students assumed to have a good day" principle because nothing else would be fair.

I don't want to do this again 😞.

An unanticipated Nottingham offer arrived just now. DD delighted

@WithIcePlease amazing news! Congratulations to your DD - brilliant!

@WithIcePlease wooo hooo. Fab news. DD loves it there.

Hurray for your DD @WithIcePlease!

Great news @WithIcePlease! Enjoy the celebrations!

@WithIcePlease great news, the choosing starts soon! Or does she know which one she likes best.