University 2020 :6: The one with the results at the end

[MillicentMartha]

Hopefully as the title suggests we will actually get up to results on this thread! Only 5 weeks to go.

Old thread www.mumsnet.com/Talk/higher_education/3918392-University-2020-5-Results-day-approaching-and-beyond?pg=40

But massively inflated grades only for the more optimistic, less honest schools. It’s not good for everyone, this, and would actually be less fair overall. And these results would never be seen as ‘real’ which would affect the whole year group.

I guess unis are still capped at 5% extra places? Not sure how Cambridge or other over offerers will fare but my guess is that UCAS have looked at student numbers on Friday and with numbers down, want as many as possible! I’m sure they ran the numbers before agreeing to this. Cam etc may be down on international students but I’d be amazed if by 30%.

This has been such a grim year for this year so maybe this is the break they get?

I don't think it's necessarily a question of schools being less honest.

No teacher knows where the grade boundaries are each year, so while they can sensibly rank their students, they have to make a judgement where the cut-off for each grade will be. Schools each had their own way of doing this, so it's inevitable that some will end up being more generous than others - that's why it made sense to operate some moderation, to use statistics to generally ensure consistency. Unfortunately, as we've seen, general consistency does not necessarily mean consistency for specific individuals.

I don’t think it’s schools being ‘less honest’. Basically this has eliminated any student messing up my exam.

Less realistic/less honest. It’s semantics. Sorry if it offended anyone prone to being over optimistic.

@Monkey2001 I think you are very mistaken regarding UCAS points for Highers vs A Levels. An A at Higher = 15 points. An A at Advanced Higher = A* at A level and 56 UCAS points.

Sorry that last post came out more harshly than I meant. Obviously some schools have struggled knowing where to set their grade boundaries and have maybe given the benefit of the doubt too often. Other schools have maybe better understanding of the standards and perhaps keep more stats to be able to make more realistic decisions. The results need moderating across schools to keep standards secure.

Actually an A at higher is 33 points. 5 As at higher is165 points so equivalent points wise to 2 A stars and an A at A level I think.

Was going to make the same point as @Newgirls that the places have been capped by the government so that only 5% more places can be filled. No news on that changing. Though the Scottish govt are going to support more students - meaning (I think?) that English students might be squeezed out in some places (my daughter has Scottish universities as both firm and insurance so I'm paying attention here!).

It's a complex machine, and adjustments in one area have knock on effects in others and feedback elsewhere, and the timing is all a bit... crap. I would have thought most universities have already decided on the A level results they received at the weekend and now know they may need to review those they turned down already with Scottish results, so I just hope they don't delay decisions... but it will affect Scottish Unis way more. I work in an English Uni (not on student side at all though, so no insight) that has very few Scottish students so I can't see that it will affect English applicants there (apart from high competition subjects like medicine). What a mess.

I'm trying to remember the exact guidance that exam boards / Ofqual gave to schools. Didn't they ask schools to try and stick to within the historical range of performance and ask them not to give students the benefit of the doubt? if that's the case then the problem is not so much about whether some schools have been optimistic but more about whether they stuck to the guidelines. As I say, I can't quite remember, but it would be grossly unfair to penalise students who go to schools that tried to stick to the guidelines. In Scotland or in England.

Mostly, I just want all this to be behind us. So fed up.

Indeed, what a mess. Are people really going to believe that the pass rate in National 5 increased by 10.7% to 88.9%, Highers by 14.4% to 89.2% and Adv Highers by 13.7% to 93.1% just by virtue of this cohort being brainier than the 2019 cohort? Or are they going to think the teachers have over estimated grades, anticipating moderation (ie. the management of grade inflation, which happens every year normally by grade boundaries). It just devalues children's achievements because no one believes the results. It's what Sturgeon said last week in order to justify the moderation!

God only knows what happens on Thursday now. Clearing and Adjustment are likely to be affected aswell.... and then what's the impact on next year's cohort?

Just 😱 really didn’t expect that!

@DadDadDad - yes that was inevitable really I think. Now, given that Scotland have effectively said, - poor year 11 and 13 - give them their higher grades (which I agree with actually) I think England and Wales must follow suit, or that would be really unfair...

Thingdoer - my understanding is that the Scottish unis have an allocation for Scottish and non Scottish - I think budgets will be impacted if they take many more Scottish. But we will see. My dd also after a place at a Scottish uni but if she goes nearer to home that’s ok too.

Comments from the BBC Education correspondent:

"This decision in Scotland puts the cat among the pigeons for exam results for the rest of the UK - where A-level results are due on Thursday.

If Scotland's students are given higher grades based on teachers' predictions, how will it be fair if they're competing for the same university places as students from England, Wales and Northern Ireland?

Will the newly-boosted grades of Scottish students bump others out of university places, whose results have been pushed down by the moderation process?

And if pegging pupils' results to the previous achievement of their school is unfair in Scotland, how will it be fair for those getting A-levels in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

These grades are for life, important for jobs as well as higher education. And it raises the question which is more important, fairness for the individual, or the smooth running of the exam system?

Scotland's change of heart will pile on the pressure for changes in the rest of the UK - but like turning an ethical Rubik cube - any change will generate other patterns of unfairness.

In England using teachers' predictions would have meant almost 40% getting an A* or A at A-level this year - and below that average there will be some teachers that have been very tough and others very generous. That would risk creating even more inequalities that could fill court rooms for years.

Until now England's Department for Education has rejected any change of plan, but the stakes have been raised."

So what is likely to happen on Thursday?

-UK (ex Scotland) gives out results as per current system.

-Uni places allocated maybe on lower grades?

• Most people happy to have cleared the uni hurdle.

• then the usual bun fight for clearing / adjustment.

• alongside simultaneous appeals in current process for outliers who missed their place

• alongside simultaneous appeals for those who have their place but not happy with grades

• alongside some other regrading process

??

It would be extremely unfair if an English student didn't get their place due to grade moderation while a Scottish student did after moderation abandoned. (At either English or Scottish universities). I just can't see how Thursday is going to go at all.

That would risk creating even more inequalities that could fill court rooms for years.

Yes, if you change the method of grading from the one you told schools would apply when they submitted their assessments, I am sure that creates scope for some lawyers to get involved. This is going to rumble on.

Five years' time: with heavy sarcasm, "oh, I see, you got one of those 2020 grade 'A's".

Somewhere there must be the data on how much Edinburgh + St Andrews over offer. I wonder if they’ll dump the cap on Scottish students and hand the clearing places over to them?

Massive financial hit for Scottish education budget, though.

DN was looking forward to his 3rd year at Cambridge in a beautiful college room - he’s now expecting to be turfed out to make room for 30% extra first years!

Thought this comments make sense.

Next year should have some leeway too though.

The vast majority if Scottish students stay and study in Scotland. At the end of 2019 ucas cycle only 2.8% of students in English universities came from rUK so this decision will not have a large impact on English universities. The impact on the Scottish cap is in the region of 3500 extra Scottish students, spread across all colleges and universities - approx 1/3 of HE in Scotland is not administered vis UCAS but through college pathways.

What needs to be understood is if capacity restraints at Scottish universities will impact clearing places (there were already v few for Scottish students). Firm and insurance offers for English students will still stand - offer rates to English students is already 75% vs. 55% to Scottish students so English students already have an advantage in securing that initial offer.

@Newgirls I consider any Scottish university nearer home 

@KingscoteStaff worth looking in Edinburgh burgh's website as they make a lot more info public than my uni does. used to work in FOI and looked closely - they disclose info we consider commercially sensitive such as offer rates. Didn't think about over-offer rates but they may have that info there.

My DD has Scottish universities as both firm and insurance. And her first choice doesn’t do clearing.
We’ve just been chatting whilst making dinner, and she’s understandably worried after seeing news reports talking about downgrading a third of students. Am trying to keep her focused and positive!
As a pp said, I’m wondering how this will affect students from the rUK.

May I join in to ask a question please - a pp up thread said that with the October resits, results could only go up or stay the same. I vaguely remember reading something like that, but can anyone point me to it?

Also, I am wondering just who will be marking the October resits? I gather it's usually a summer job for many teachers.

DD is sure she will be resitting, only question in her mind is whether it's one, two or all three subjects . She doesn't want to go to uni this year regardless of limited gap year opportunities, so is refusing to look at Clearing.

It is hard for current Y12 if there is significant number of people getting unexpectedly high grades who may defer to next year to get into a better university. Potential further impact on places for current Y12 if students in universities which have over-offered ask significant numbers to defer.

@Persephonecall and @Alittlewornout I meant that almost all people entered for Advanced Higher will get at least a D, which is equivalent in UCAS point to a C at A level. I know that AH is not quite the same as A level, but the proportions of top grades look really high for people who have done A levels - for example this year in the moderated results 63.8% of AH students were awarded A/B for Physics, including 36.6% getting A, so there were more As than Bs, which looks odd. Last year, for A level Physics, 8.7% got A and 27.9% got A/A. It is difficult to see how the AH A can really be equivalent to an A level A*.