IB results out tomorrow

[truelove]

DS expecting IB results tomorrow afternoon. He needs 7,6,6 at HL for Physics at Warwick (same for his insurance, Bristol) but has since decided he wants to try for Durham through clearing (because his GF is going there assuming she gets the results she needs . He knows it’s a long shot and that he will probably have to wait for A level results.

Anyone else’s DC awaiting IB results tomorrow?

@SeasonFinale - yes yes yes. One of the great missed opportunities for the GCSE/A level process this year was to allow schools to explain their outliers, or special cases. Had that been possible, many of the anxieties, let alone injustices, would have not happened.

It would have been easy to back up any anomalies by submitting information like prior individual GCSE grades for that student.. Eg a school with a record of Cs in A level Maths who has an A* outlier could support that with their grade 9 GCSE.. It could be open for abuse but I would have thought the formal evidence like GCSEs or AS levels would have been suffice.

@Oneteen, that is an interesting analysis. Was that the school which was quoted as "content"? It seems extraordinary that internal assessments which were supposed to be a small part of the overall grade and historic performance were more heavily weighted than teacher assessments.

@SeasonFinale

That said it had always been my understanding that outliers and small cohorts would be considered by boards requesting evidence prior to an automatic moderation down of Grades.

The problem is that it's still an assumption. Until they release the model and a statement of exactly what they are doing with small cohorts/outliers then we will continue to worry about it (and yes, I have read the statements and consultations) ...I suspect they haven't released the info because they want to see what the computer throws up and then back fit the process to fit the outcome they want - otherwise known as winging it.

This is clearly not an issue for schools where all pupils consistently get A/A*....but it is def a worry for the majority.

Looks as though there are several issues. The algorithm they have used vastly increases the weighting given to IA’s. Some schools had already got students to complete these in December and were denied permission to resubmit when exams were cancelled. Other candidates had much longer to improve these and being coursework are open to gaming much more than exams. I would want to know if there was a statistical difference between those students that submitted in December before exams were cancelled and those that submitted afterwards. There are also allegations from IB students on twitter that some students bought IA’s in order to improve their grades. This should also be investigated.
Small cohorts will have more volatile results and consideration should have been given to students in this situation. Apparently IBO were aiming for 90% of students to get the correct grade which obviously means 10% of students’ grades could be wrong. Assuming that half are too high, mostly I guess at the bottom end, 5% will be too low. These are numbers that it should be possible to sort by looking at gcse grades and other work.
Some universities might also see the situation and accept lower grades too. I don’t think all is lost. Schools that have been affected will fight hard and there are some litigious parents out there whose children have lost med school/russell group uni places over this. I think there will be legal challenges if it isn‘t sorted by .

@monkey2001... Yes the school that was - "content" ...

@dennishsherwood thanks for linking that report. There must be some unhappy people at OFQUAL and the boards today. The "it will be fair" rhetoric will have to be proved.

I can also imagine how pleased you are that sense is emerging, and that the minority you have been championing may have a better chance than you feared.

It does make me wonder what are on the embargoed pages of the Ofqual Calculations document are and I assume this is what they are calling for to be released . I am not sure what withholding this information achieves unless as Bpisok suggests above the tweaking will be done afterwards to get a best fit for most model. Perhaps if they were able to release those l
pages and schools were to do a modelling based on their actual submissions and the methodology therein there may be less angst if basically all is well or at least give advanced warnings of issues.

If as they seem to suggest BAME discrimination can be used as a point of appeal could it be argued that the modelling if applied correctly discriminates against outliers or will that need to be subject to judiciary review?

I believe Ofqual stated that it would run the model see what the outcome was and then cpntinue to rerun the model... So yes winging it...

To be be fair this is new territory for everybody and a situation forced upon them. If some 'winging it' produces a solution that works for the many that may be preferable to showing their hand and being forced to stick to it anomalies and all. The best case would be that they are able to tweak the solution to get best fit for most but that part of their work involves investigation and follow up of outliers and checking for fair treatment of 'groups'.

@Oneteen getting back to IB, that Birmingham school got just over the average of the last 3 years. Maybe the algorithm is roughly - increase the school score by up to 1% over the 3 year historic average, allocating grades in line with ranking for IA score and pretty much ignoring teacher predictions. That could line up with some of the stories I have seen, although still can't work out how scores are sometimes so much lower than IA. Can you work out how your school would have done if they had got the 3 year average? Are your girls OK? Have they got enough for their university places?

Does the select committee have any authority to require IBO to publish their algorithm?!

medium.com/@joelumsden/thoughts-on-the-ib-results-a-dive-into-the-numbers-this-year-75011ae2d1bf

I think this writer has probably got it spot on.

Hmmm.... Judging by the responses to that post it seems that IBO have tailored the algorithm to meet the distribution grade quotas at the expense of awarding the correct grades (one commenter said 50 percent of grades were wrong at his school and a school had the worst results in 10 years despite a strong cohort and consistent historical results ). I think we all know that predicted grades are often wrong but when predicted grades match IA that have been moderated by IBO and the grade awarded is 2 points lower.. How does that work? It certainly doesn't explain why one schools results were 4 percent higher than the previous year despite weaker GCSEs (results were deteriating year on year...looks like they had the benefit of results 4/5 years ago - not the schools fault). It's also interesting that the usual 20 percent of coursework could now have represented 80% of the actual grade total and I tend to agree with the comments that this would have favoured the weaker candidates who struggle in exams and may explain why the DC who look to be mainly affected were often the ones with points scores between 37-42 in mainly smaller cohorts.

Im not sure how you can alter a distribution line fairly if two many DC have the same results and you have limited marked work to separate them by?

I think they need to release the Algorithm...

@Oneteen yes, I was very surprised that the author of that article said he does not think they will be willing to release the algorithm, but surely they must be accountable for the results they have issued!

For some of them I wonder whether they have muddled up centre numbers (a data error) in the historic analysis as the results were so strange.

A new blog, more about GCSE and A level, but maybe with some messages for IB too...

www.hepi.ac.uk/2020/07/14/halfon-is-right-ofqual-has-more-to-do/

Thanks Dennis.

Do we think they may revise the appeals system or has that horse already bolted?

mmm... good one... The Select Committee has real power: Ofqual reports directly to them, not the Department for Education. Also, I think it's rather unusual for a report to be issued, in its own right, whilst an Inquiry is still in progress, and the report wasn't marked "interim". So the Committee thinks this stuff is important.

I feel that the report's focus on appeals on behalf of disadvantaged students, though important of course in its own right, missed the over-arching point about "fairness", which was one of the main purposes in writing the blog.

Hopefully, this will be picked up. And it only needs one influential person to say to Robert Halfon something like "and you will have a word with Sally Collier, won't you, to ensure that the appeals process will be fair to everyone..." for something real to happen.

The precedent in Scotland is, I think important.

So let's see what happens, and let's continue to exert as much pressure and influence as we can! And please do post a comment to the blog!!!

This looks like good news: the appeals process is being relaxed...

www.tes.com/news/coronavirus-ib-concession-over-grades-welcomed-headteachers

Not wishing to be a pedant but Ofqual is a non-ministerial Department and is accountable to Parliament through the Education Select Committee. The Select Committee cannot dictate what Ofqual does or does not do. In the same way the Education Select Committee cannot tell the DfE what to do.

The power of a Select Committee is it the able to scrutinise the actions of an organisation but it can't tell them what to do.
It can embarrass them and can require a Government Department to respond to recommendations but it cannot force action on anyone.

Also one off quick reports aren't unusual when the circumstances merit them so don't read too much not it.

Cut and paste from letter to centre heads at least they seem to be listening...

In addition to the usual request for appeals process, we want to work with schools to review extraordinary cases. We have identified three priority areas for review: (i) candidate level discrepancy (ii) subject level discrepancy (iii) whole cohort discrepancy We are working to develop a process which will enable us to have a conversation with each school regarding their concerns at the cohort and individual school level. More details on the specifics of that process will be sent out by midweek. We will prioritise cases that are linked to progression to support with university admissions and dates of admissions. We are committing to a rigorous review of these cases. We cannot guarantee higher grades as a result of the review. Where the marks are deemed reasonable grades will not go down as a result of this process.

We will all work through this together. We are committed to you. We have earned your trust for 50 years and in this unprecedented year we will continue to serve our community. We look forward to constructive dialogue with our heads of schools and DP coordinators. We all want the same thing: to ensure a bright future for all of our students across the globe.

Hi @SandyBayley - you are not a pedant, you are correct. And as you say, Ofqual are indeed accountable to Parliament through the Select Committee.

In many circumstances, when A is accountable to B, that usually confers some power of B over A. And even if convention suggests that B cannot tell A "what to do", if B says "A must", does that not carry some weight? And if A does not deliver, what are the consequences?

I counted about 13 "Ofqual musts" in the report, each of which seems to be a pretty clear "what to do".

If the Select Committee cannot "tell Ofqual what to do", who can?

Cut and paste from letter to centre heads at least they seem to be listening...

Surely, if the IBO had identified all these areas of concern (...), then the thing to do would have been to delay the notification of results while they worked out what had happened and how to fix I? Not tell everyone how proud they are of the robustness of their system, then say, well, of course, we've found all these bits which look to have gone a bit tits up, but only once rather a lot of people also make it plain that they have noticed?

@dennishsherwood - I fear that we are getting into a slightly academic discussion about the nature of power.

To really understand what Ofqual is empowered to do and what the limitations on it are you have to go back to the Act which established it. This was the Apprenticeships, Skills, Children and Learning Act.

There are plenty of limitations there and a role for the SoS to step in if they feel Ofqual is not performing as it should. But it's certainly not a direct power the Select Committee has. It can influence certainly but not direct. For anyone really interested the way to find out such things is to review the explanatory notes to the Act.

Indeed. I am particularly drawn to Section 22

"The qualifications standards objective is to secure that—

(a)regulated qualifications give a reliable indication of knowledge, skills and understanding..."

(www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2011/21/section/22).

which I understand to place a duty on Ofqual to "secure ... a reliable indication".