IB results out tomorrow

[truelove]

DS expecting IB results tomorrow afternoon. He needs 7,6,6 at HL for Physics at Warwick (same for his insurance, Bristol) but has since decided he wants to try for Durham through clearing (because his GF is going there assuming she gets the results she needs . He knows it’s a long shot and that he will probably have to wait for A level results.

Anyone else’s DC awaiting IB results tomorrow?

Yes have seen the component grades. Don't make sense as tho. Biology HL DD got 6s all year long. Awarded 5 for her coursework and ended up with a 4. The IBO has moderated down all her grades.

So sorry to hear that @Butella. Have you looked on The Student Room forum - there are lots of similar stories over there. It may be worth following to get some ideas how to proceed. Have you spoken to DD’s school for advice?

I have spoken to DDs school. Although subject teachers are all shocked by the results, the IB coordinator insists there is little to be done. We have requested remarks for all subjects, that might make a couple of points difference but not 1-2 grades difference for each subject which is the difference between school's suggestions and the given grades.

It sounds as though she is at a school that does not usually perform very well and therefore falls outside what their historic data suggests as normal marks for the school. For A levels and GCSES prior cohort attainment is also being factored in so if they are a cleverer bunch than usual it should be reflected but my understanding is that IBO did not factor in similar data.

@Butella that sounds awful, hope you make some progress. It feels like an unnecessary level of stress on top of the rest of the virus disruption.

My DD was awarded 644 753 and had been predicted 766 765. Only got 31 points and needed 34 for Edinburgh- Edinburgh have since rejected her. Needless to say so has LSE who wanted 38 points.

Thank you for your kind help. Yes all very stressful.

If you haven't already seen this, and although it's written referring to A levels, I think the message applies to IB too... www.tes.com/news/why-level-results-are-liverpools-league-victory

Would the school be willing to advocate for your DD at any of Universities she might be interested in. 31 is not too far away from the score required for some decent Russel Groups if I remember rightly

My understanding is that the IB examining board have not taken into account subject cohort GCSEs.... I am really not sure how you can have a predicted grade of 7 , moderated coursework awarded grade 7 yet be awarded a 5...which is what has happened likewise a DC can be predicted a 6, coursework moderated 6...but awarded a 7... Historical data in a subject is fine if the DC are the same starting point but if the historical data relates to DC who achieved an A at GCSE yet this cohort achieved 9's its comparing Apples with Pears..

Dennishsherwood - that article is flawed in that Liverpool would get ranked as number 1 in the A* category and are therefore not at risk of being moderated down. Also it is flawed as it suggests that the clubs will be standardised on their own individual prior attainment rather than the entire cohort. It also says that they would not be judged on this season's performance which of course the pupils are indeed being judged on this season's performance - that is what the centre assessed grades are.

I am seriously concerned that TES are not reading these submissions nor are they moderating them before publishing them.

@Butella

I have spoken to DDs school. Although subject teachers are all shocked by the results, the IB coordinator insists there is little to be done. We have requested remarks for all subjects, that might make a couple of points difference but not 1-2 grades difference for each subject which is the difference between school's suggestions and the given grades.

My DD has had a level 5 downgraded to a 3- The IB Co-Ordinator has made a formal complaint to the IBO, that is part of their role. That seems like a worthwhile approach- remarking unlikely to make a difference. Disappointing of Edinburgh- my DDs place is being considered next week and I am worried that this is not on the Scottish Uni radar yet. I am not hopeful.

Ofqual has said they will not be investigating the IBO as they have done extensive modelling using 5 years worth of data and in light of their findings believe the results are robust.

It's 5 years worth of data but I don't believe it's GCSEs...

It's incredibly paramount that Ofqual actually compare GCSEs and A levels grades at student level where there are discrepancies...

Oneteen - There won't be the same issues for gcses and A levels because they are also factoring in prior cohort attainment using their UCI data.

My daughter has now had her component grades back. She has dropped 5 marks in total from the assessed coursework, and 10 from her predictions. The five mark difference would have got her into her first uni choice of Edinburgh 😡

@SeasonFinale, yes, they are using COHORT achieved data, but no evidence that will be mapped onto subjects. If a bright DC does a subject which had weak results last year, but somebody with weaker GCSEs does a subject with strong results for last year, I have not heard anything which makes me think the good GCSE results will impact the right result.

It may be that OFQUAL has an amazing algorithm which gives a high level of weighting to teacher predictions and looks across subjects, or they may not, they are not telling the general public. After seeing the lottery of IB where these poor students have been SIGNIFICANTLY downgraded on teacher predictions and assessed work, of course we are cynical!

I think the statistical process is upside down. If they want to use historic centre results, cohort prior attainment and teacher predictions, they should have done the statistical bit first and given the schools a pot of grades to distribute as fairly among their students as possible. There would not then be blind spots where statistics are over-ruling professional assessments.

Maybe OFQUAL will do a better job though.

@SeasonFinale: thank you, and your point is well-taken.

I must confess, though, that I read the TES piece perhaps rather differently - that each of the four teams are at different 'schools', each ranked no 1 in their own school, and each with a CAG of A. That gives 4 As in total, as 'bid'.

If "no grade inflation" implies only one A* for the total all-school cohort, then the 'exam board' has to down-grade three in some way. In which case, the outcome as described could be plausible. This is the "Tragedy of the Commons", which could possibly explain FFT Education datalab's findings.

If the 'rules' aren't clear, or if 'some' grade inflation is allowed, then the outcome could of course be different. Unfortunately, my understanding of the rules I have read doesn't allow me to anticipate how any actual "Tragedy" will be resolved in August.

I fully recognise, however, that if all four teams are in the same school, they would be ranked 1 to 4, and the no 1 would indeed get the one A* allowed, as you correctly describe.

And as regards your point about TES... as you may know, I've had a couple of pieces recently: I do hope they are OK - please let me know if you think they are not!

My understanding is that the IB examining board have not taken into account subject cohort GCSEs....

I'm sorry, I don't know a lot about the IB, but is the IBO not using GCSEs as any part of the equation because they treated all candidates in the same way, wherever they are and the UK is (?) the only place where the vast majority of IB candidates will have taken formal public exams at 16? Apologies if that is a complete misunderstanding (but the assertion that we are the only place that students are subjected to 'high stakes' exams before the age of 18 does seem to be trotted out quite often as a reason why GCSEs should be abolished).

@marchfrogs... Yes..although most of the schools taking IB would have taken iGCSEs... So there should be a way of comparing the DC. My DD's school would have had 20% of the cohort take IB 5 years ago...this year it was under 10%...in order to compare those girls historically you need to know the base level of the 20% and the base level of the 10%... You cannot say that a girl with 8xAs/ Bs 5 years ago will perform the same as a girl with 8x9s this year and vice versa.

Ofqual actually clearly understand that comparing cohorts of 20 students or less will not produce accurate data... They performed detailed analysis on Oct 19...they also know there is a need to look at GCSEs too...

A ray of hope? OFQUAL are going to investigate.

www.tes.com/news/exclusive-coronavirus-ib-grading-being-investigated-watchdog

@truelove thanks for that information - hoping it might be a similar situation to your DD. His 5 was in maths, and he's applying for Liberal Arts so not the crucial subject. He's emailed an enquiry but the website says wait until August. It's very tedious, as one of the compensations of the crazy IB workload is knowing you are getting your results early in the summer ....

TES are just publishing my old thing submitted it seems. Yesterday there was a report that Ofqual were not investigating and that they were happy the IB results were robust. Now another article says the opposite. And their other one has seemingly disappeared.

Their continued publishing of scaremongering articles about results has lead to a worthless petition which has been addressed and has lead to an Ofqual release citing it as wrong.

Instead of feeding into speculation why not wait to see what August brings and address issues then.

As regards historic and prior cohort data are we really assuming that schools cannot work out for themselves what % of each grade they are likely to get? They have that information to hand.

Exam boards can (prior to moderation) request evidence to back grades so for small cohorts or those without sufficient historic data they can actually assess grades at what they expect and the board will most likely in those cases review the evidence.

Whipping staff, teachers and pupils into a frenzy at this stage is simply not helpful.