IB results out tomorrow

[truelove]

DS expecting IB results tomorrow afternoon. He needs 7,6,6 at HL for Physics at Warwick (same for his insurance, Bristol) but has since decided he wants to try for Durham through clearing (because his GF is going there assuming she gets the results she needs . He knows it’s a long shot and that he will probably have to wait for A level results.

Anyone else’s DC awaiting IB results tomorrow?

Intrigued (worried) about how this is going to pan out in a school that typically has between 1 and 7 students per subject each year. And to add an extra layer of uncertainty subject numbers aren't static - one subject had 2 in 2018, 6 in 2019 and 1 in 2020. How on earth do you derive statistical norms from that??

My daughter’s school is typically high achieving, but last year, had a bad year. This will have had a massive impact on her grades awarded.

bpisok, nightsoutasap - the cruel truth is that no one knows. The details of "statistical standardisation" were never published, so no school was able to replicate the process before they submitted their grades. Also, Ofqual refused to answer specific questions relating to, for example, small cohorts (for which the "statistics" are wobbly indeed) and bright students trapped by history.

Things might turn out all right. They might not. And if they don't, that will be unfair to some, perhaps many.

The outcome is uncertain. But what is certain - if things don't turn out all right - is that those treated unfairly will be denied an appeal. Which is doubly unfair.

The only people who can change this, and make things more fair, are the leaders of Ofqual.

How can pressure be brought to bear?

Hardly a proper scientific study, but according to this poll (www.reddit.com/r/IBO/comments/hm68m6/do_you_think_your_2020_ib_results_are_fair/), 76% of people didn't think their IB grades were fair. That is a ridiculously high number of people.

@dennishsherwood you must have said something particularly controversial if you are being censored! Hope they release your comment soon. I wonder if More or Less would be interested in looking at the whole thing of grades this year, having access to data from the IBs moves this from fear of the unknown to having an evidence base.

I hope not!!!

Yes... that's a good idea! They are very open to suggestions, so do drop them a note. Their latest series had just finished, but they'll be back in the autumn, just at the right time.

And you know about this one last year...

www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0007rtv

Hi @Iris2212. As you may know, there's a similar petition about A levels www.change.org/p/boris-johnson-stop-the-33-downgrade-of-2020-a-level-and-gcse-results

The origin of the petition is this report ffteducationdatalab.org.uk/2020/06/gcse-results-2020-a-look-at-the-grades-proposed-by-schools/, which is a study of draft GCSE submissions for 1,900 schools, as compared to 2019.

A couple of days later, this article appeared in the i: inews.co.uk/news/education/gcse-a-level-exams-2020-millions-proposed-grades-cut-generous-predictions-england-450236, which gave the matter much wider visibility.

@dennishsherwood - that's the article which generated huge amounts of panic and the ill-informed petition that got lots of people unnecessarily wound up? I'd take with a large lunch of salt.

To any A Level parents worrying that the IB results will mean their DC are likely to do less well than expected I'd say DS1's school has done as they'd expect for the IB cohort so don't read too much into it.

@sandybayley: You're right, the article in the i by Will Hazell did indeed set a hare running, and the claim in the petition that "The Government Dept responsible for this has decided in their wisdom to reduce those grades by up to 33%" is certainly false: no government department would dream of doing that.

But the report from FFT education datalab is very different: it's based on draft submissions from 1,900 schools. Yes, their data are drafts, and they compared only with 2019. But their conclusions might be right.

Take a look, at the bottom, at FFT's answer to the question "For GCSE, and supposing that the boards intervene to place the grade boundaries so that the 2020 distribution matches 2019, is it possible to estimate the % of centre assessed grades that would still be confirmed, the % down-graded, and (if any) the % upgraded?"

ffteducationdatalab.org.uk/2020/06/gcse-results-2020-a-look-at-the-grades-proposed-by-schools/

So I think that the possibility that many centre assessment grades will be down-graded is real - tes.com/news/exams-gcse-alevel-grading-issue-risk-concern, as might be the resulting trouble - www.tes.com/news/ib-results-scandal-pupils-demand-new-grades

I'm content that the FFT report is sound but I wouldn't promote the Will Hazell article. It caused a huge amount of unnecessary anxiety.

I'd also be cautious about posting that IB results have been low and the system is flawed. The truth is that many schools (mine included) have been content with outcomes but are keeping relatively quiet because of the extraordinary circumstances we find ourselves.

For those who enjoy brain teasers, here is the latest, hot off the presses, from Ofqual (noon, 7 July).

A complex document... but page 28 is "interesting":

Annex E
Standardisation process
[Embargoed until 20 August 2020]

/assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/898202/Requirements_for_the_calculation_of_results_in_summer_2020.pdf

Sandybayley - well done that your child did well, but my daughter’s school (high performing international boarding school, traditionally has excellent IB results, but had a poor year last year, as a “blip” has made an official complaint and after speaking to the head teacher, the vast majority of other head teachers were very unhappy with the results. To go from a predicted 39 to 29 is unexplainable. She was predicted a 6 in maths, has never achieved below a 5 in any exam for this subject, including moderated work. She was awarded a 3. She achieved an A in the EE assignment, she is praying that Edinburgh take this into consideration.

@nightsoutasap - my child didn't do IB!

And I'm sorry that it hasn't worked out for her. I hope she gets to Edinburgh.

But where do you get the stat that the 'cast majority of heads' are unhappy with their IB results?

@nightsoutasap I think it is difficult for schools which have been winners in the algorithm lottery to believe quite how blunt this appears to have been. Overall the results are up, many will have got the right grades, some will have got better grades than they would have got without all this, but there will be significant losers and it feels unacceptable.

I meant the vast majority of head teachers to whom my daughter’s head teacher had spoken to. Anecdotal I know, but it was to counter your comment that “many schools were content with the outcomes”. I also know that many schools are not happy with the outcomes.

@nightsoutasap - I don't wish to labour the point but I suspect that your head will have spoken to other heads who are unhappy with their IB results rather than those who are happy. Hence they believe many share their experience. Equally press coverage focuses on those who want to speak out because they are unhappy - that's how the media works.

TES won't write a headline of 'Most heads pretty happy with the way things are' - who's read that and share it?

@sandybayley the problem is that the "right" number of high grades overall have been awarded, so some schools have the right or better grades so will be happy, and some (those which underperformed last year or had a weaker cohort last year) will be unhappy.

For the individuals on the wrong side of the divide, this is awful, all the more so as it was taken out of their control.

If there are many schools which did badly last year and well this year, maybe the algorithm was not as bad as it appears to some.

@Monkey2001 - of course. I sympathise with everyone who is disappointed / frustrated but my point is we have no way of knowing whether what people are reporting represent a pattern of unfairness yet. I don't think it's wise to make assumptions based on MN posts and TES pieces. I'd rather wait for hard facts.

.... yes but we can't assume that there is not a problem either. There definitely is a problem which some of the posters here and on TSR are caught up in. We will have to wait for the hard facts to understand the extent of the problem.

I am totally sure the same thing is going to happen for GCSEs and A levels. Some WILL be unfair, both over and under, and some will be right (particularly for the type of schools where almost all the students consistently get 7/8/9 or A/A* so results are stable). In schools with variable results, there are going to be problems.

Did the IB algorithm only take last year’s results into account? For A levels it’s the last 3 years which should help smooth out some of the variability.

Millicant the IB results were in a large part based on externally marked coursework (or at least took it into account) which is why some of the variation is more surprising. And it seems that it is the eternally marked coursework causing some of the issues

You’d have thought externally marked coursework would have been more accurately and impartially marked than otherwise.