Labour can't win

[verdantverdure]

Unless absolutely SHEDLOADS of people who voted Conservative in 2019 vote Labour this time.

That's right, isn't it?

Gosh, I am pleased we don't have the same friends

Well in Leics East the Tories are fielding a v young, vibrant Asian woman and she's very popular so that blows your theory

Ah ha, thank you! So these polls are predicting it based on I guess a few thousand people polled? I was going on what people were saying on here. I don't care who wins as long as it's not Reform or 'Torie.'

I suspect that group is too small to be in any way representative of anything.

Er no, it doesn't.

Have you ever heard of something called 'statistics'? What about the concept of an 'average'?

They used to weigh the Tory vote here. Now it’s predicted to turn Labour. There’s nowhere the Tories are bound to win any more.

These threads are funny. Odds on next PM: Starmer 1/41. Farage 33/1. Sunak 50/1. Penny Morduant 55/1.

@Invent
Yet Labour really aren't enthusing the nation are they
A million votes cast with enthusiasm are inferior to 1.1 million cast begrudgingly. The goal is to win power. THEN you start to govern.

Why can't you have a healthy debate without being just downright nasty? People are entitled to different views. I have no political affiliation but love a debate and have friends and relatives across the whole spectrum. No need for ignorant nastiness

@tillyandmilly · Today 20:45

I will not be voting Labour and none of my friends are.

I think it's so endearing and sweet that you actually believe this. 😆 That none of your friends are voting for Labour! That's just what they're telling you!

This thread is very eye-opening about the levels of reading comprehension and understanding of our electoral process among the general population....

Considering all across Europe right wing parties have unprecedented support amongst the under 25s I'm not sure I believe those stats.
Maybe voters of a certain age bracket 'transition' to voting right wing later, but that's meaningless if the under 25s increasingly vote right wing.

And again because you clearly missed it the first time @Zebedee999.

https://www.standard.co.uk/hp/front/howard-under-fire-over-iraq-7247839.html

Remember though the polls predicted a run away Corbyn win back in 2020

It really doesn't blow the theory apart at all. You can always google what statistics means if you lack even a basic level of knowledge!

I've read that Reform have a lot of support among right wing young people, not the conservatives.

Labour have a very high chance of winning which is hardly surprising after 14 years of shockingly bad Tory governments.
What happens may happen in 2029 is more unpredictable and also more interesting and frightening.

You mean 2019? There was no election in 2020.

And no, they didn't.

It is simple maths.

Labour will get around 40% of the vote. Conservatives + Reform will get a similar number between them.

If they were under a single party the result would be close with both them and Labour receiving 40% of the vote each.

If you split the Conservative and Reform vote up and give 20% to each which is roughly where it will end up then Labour goes from being touch and go whether they will even win to suddenly having a 200+ seat majority despite not picking up a single additional vote.

That is also why Labour are terrified of Farage because of he can bring the Conservatives and Reform together as a unified single party then Labour will only last 1 term.

The tories have bled the public dry to the point even Mumsnet Londoners are noticing things are a bit shit and their pockets feeling light.

They’ll drop off now, like the leaches they are, while Labour put in the hard graft to salvage what they can and set about re-growing the public funds that the Tories have been handing over to their mates for the last decade and a half.

OP is clearly trying to get the Labour vote out as there is bound to be a very low turnout.

I have a masters in politics. I like a debate, especially a political debate and this is Mumsnet, not the Oxford debating society so don't patronise me. Thank you

Yes, this.

A supermajority is never good for any government. There need to be some checks and balances in place, particularly with regards to women's rights 😬

Exactly! And look how that turned out! 😬

But we are in the U.K.

Ds works in political demographics

Professional/educated young and old now vote Labour.

Less educated and much older vote Tory/Reform. This is a shrinking group.

The thing about people becoming more right wing as they get older is no longer applicable.