Voting for Reform

[Behappyandbehave]

Would this be such a bad idea? I hate labour and tories. But I don't know enough about Reform.

Well it does specifically say on the website you’ve linked to “If 100% of students left the country within a few years, then over the long run they would not contribute to net migration”

But I guess we will have to agree to disagree.

Yes, the report sometimes mentions "long-term migration", the one that is measured as the share of foreign-born people and the one that I'm part of, (they call it long term migration because what else would you call it?), but when people and the media talk about "net migration" usually they mean that year's figure, of 700, 000 (or whatever it is).
We can agree to disagree, but one of us is right and the other wrong, it's not really a matter of opinion.

For instance, it has to be correct to say that over the long term I have contributed to net migration, because it can't be said that I haven't contributed to migration to the UK, but that doesn't say anything about whether or not I'm included in this year's figure. So although students are included in the net migration figures of 700,000 for the year as soon as they have been year a year, the year they leave they'll be counted as emigrating and it can be said that they won't be contributing to net migration overall in the way that I have. They are in the 700,000 figure, deceiving you that they are here to stay when they are not. That's what the briefing is about.

’Hating foreigners’ and calling people ‘racists, bigots’ for talking about immigration is a lazy argument designed to shut down discussion about the pros and cons of immigration. Immigration needs to be discussed as it affects every area of country and how we plan future infrastructure. We do need a level of immigration to fill skills shortages and for the exchange of ideas in higher education and research. Immigration is also good for cultural exchange and enriches our national life.

However, immIgration needs to be controlled so we can comfortably accomodate migrants for housing, public serves , schooling and health. I have noticed illegal migrants in my town living rough sleeping in bushes and hedges then go to work as deliveroo couriers and on building sites. They are probably also indebted to trafficking gangs and vulnerable to violence. These are mostly young men the same age as my dc1 I would hate them to be having the life these migrants are having.

When I look on my street about 50% of the houses are rented out as BLT to immigrants who have arrived in the past 10 years. We all get along and I’m friendly with a few of the families but it does highlight these houses are now unavailable to young couples who want to buy and settle down as we did in the 90’s when we moved into the street along with other young couples. Even if there were houses were for sale the cost would be unaffordable for the young like my dcs. There has been little new housing being built in the town and what there is are mainly 1-2 bed flats on the outskirts with a very infrequent bus service.

So it’s not about ‘Hating foreigners’ it’s about making sure we have enough housing and public services to take care of the British people and also migrants who come here to contribute. Everyone deserves to live meaningfully and with dignity, having unlimited numbers of people in the UK will lead to neither.

Foreigners aren't the reason people can't afford houses. The government policy is built around ratcheting up house prices, primarily through planning laws and lack of new social housing. House prices are also expensive in 99%+ White British villages after all.

Reform policies would lead to more misery for the many foreign born people who call the UK their home. The hostile environment, monstering asylum seekers, deporting elderly Windrush arrivals, Kafkaesque visa and citizenship processes, the Rwanda farce... all miserable policies that have been tried and failed by the Tories and made little effect on overall numbers. Think about Farage's character. What do you think Reform would do to get the numbers down?

I’m all for more control on immigration. But throwing your vote on Reform is not the answer.

Farage has no experience that would be of any use in actually delivering results for the country.

He is a snake oil salesman, very good orator thst coujd sell driving lessons to a blind person. This does not mean he can actually do the job.

I beg you to please don’t give them any wings!

If Farage cannot organise a decent vetting of his OWN candidates standing for election, what chance does anyone thing he has of sorting anything out at our borders.

Classic populism: take a really complex problem and offer simplistic solution

Polls have consistently shown people want less immigration. Politicians have consistently increased it. Reform are just tapping into the inevitable hostility.

Even they admit they have no chance of getting into power, so I don't think we need to worry about how incompetent they would be.

Well I've just voted!

I just hope my choice wins.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/20/nigel-farage-andrew-tate-important-voice-men-podcast-interview

Thank you I was going to post that. How any woman can think Reform is a supporter of women baffles me

Also I would like someone who says Reform isn't racist to explain to me how this isn't racist.

I think Reform hope to get a few seats ( which is still ambitious) but it’s mainly to hold the main political parties to account.

The Tories promised to get immigration down to the tens of thousands 14 years ago.
Even 8 years after the EU referendum, the government still haven’t listened to people concerned about high immigration.

We have to be realistic and say that a country the size of ours can’t have 500- 700k people coming to settle in the UK.
Even 300k per year is 3 million in ten years.

I don’t think Reform are the answer but Labour ( who let’s face it are going to win ) really need to have some sensible ideas about how to control immigration to sustainable levels.

Just calling people racists doesn’t help and only causes people to get more frustrated.

Look at it like this. Let’s say a small town has a building. They allow for example a thousand men to move there, who just roam around and have nothing to do all day.

Obviously this causes concern for the local community.

Again not listening to people’s concerns just leads to more trouble , like when a group of people get set on fire a building because it was due to take in migrants.

I also predict Reform will get about 4 million votes.

How would you like to describe their latest supporter, the Duke of Malborough?

In 1995, he spent a month in prison for forging prescriptions.
In 2007, he was sentenced to six months in jail on two counts of dangerous driving and one of criminal damage.
In 2013, he was accused by a Sikh cab driver of abusing him with racist language…

x.com/mrjamesob/status/1804143606892044765

I think 4 million might be underplaying their hand, given they appear to be the only party who are rising in the polls as the weeks go by. Although I don't think that they will gain many seats. I think it will change the shape and direction of the Conservatives, I'd eat my hat if Kemi isn't the next leader or name change, I'll probably just do that

Well at least election night will be interesting!

Even if they get 4 million votes that averages at less than 7,000 per seat. They could easily end up not getting any. Badenoch won’t want to go anywhere near the fragments of a wrecked party, I suspect she’ll hold off until the 2034 election’s in sight.

I think it’s interesting (and terrifying) how social media is shaping the political landscape. Apps like tik tok seem to give the village idiots not only a voice, but a platform to congregate.

2034! Jesus, I must be getting old but I read that year like the fuuuuture, complete with flying cars and Jetson's style house robots - not two election cycles away

I would start by explaining the difference between a random private twitter account and an official party account, but I doubt there'd be much point.

I think over the next few weeks, Reform will take labour votes and will end up with the most, or close to the most, votes but still hardly any seats. Labour will get a massive majority in Parliament and Farage will spend the next five years saying that despite their overwhelming Parliamentary majority, they have no mandate.

Reform better get their skates on for those Labour votes, they don't have a "few weeks" to do so. 13 days to go.

Farage just told Nick Robinson that the West provoked the war in Ukraine

This is, as @bbcnickrobinson points out, a Kremlin justification too.

NATO's expansion is only part of it.

According to Vladimir Putin, Ukraine doesn't exist.

His brutal invasion is about restoring power, influence, and denying the country's ambitions to align with the West.

Those voting Reform, do you agree?

Putin’s lickspittle isn’t he? Also likes Trump. Robinson did a good job I thought.