Brexit

[PerkyLady]

Hello.
Maybe some of you will consider this a fresh topic, but I'm interested in it nevertheless.
Did you vote for or against Brexit?
And what were your reasons?
Stay well.

Also, there are plenty of people retraining into trades who do also have degrees. So one does not exclude the other and vice versa. People can do degrees even as pensioners and get the loans (which they then never repay, but available it is).

Yup. The same tired old cut and paste that is filling a significant proportion of this thread.

Ladies and Gents. I hereby declare Brexit a failure, and I present as evidence the fact that @GlobeTrotter2000 cannot provide an example of a single universal benefit that came from it.

As Globetrotter won't name a benefit, let's try the web.

The aftermath of Brexit: has the UK benefited or suffered from leaving the EU? - The European Institute for International Relations (eiir.eu)

Quote the highlight benefit in this document, we get this:

"On the other side, one of the major victories for Brexit supporters was the restoration of political sovereignty. The UK is no longer bound by EU regulations, allowing it to craft its own policies: this newfound autonomy was evident in the UK’s independent approach to COVID-19 vaccine procurement, which many argue was more efficient than the EU’s strategy."

Covid vax ! Ok, moving on...

The bit in bold is true, but it is also of no significance at all. Because as anyone who has worked in any way with designing/ manufacturing/ growing any product, it still has to meet EU regs if it is to be exported to there.

So the owners of the vast banana plantations of Wiltshire, still have to grow their Bananas to Commission Regulation (EC) No 2257/94 "laying down quality standards for bananas". If they want to sell their product to the EU. Unless of course the UK eats all the tonnage of that famous Wiltshire crop.

What they can do however is sell their Cavandish bananas that are shorter than 14cm in the UK as bananas. To sell in the EU they have to be longer than 14cm.

So there you go. Another big benefit. We can get shorter bananas than the French can. Cavandish that is. Because under (EC) No 2257/94 : "As an exception to the third paragraph, bananas produced in Madeira, the Azores, the Algarve, Crete, Lakonia and Cyprus which are less than 14 cm in length may be marketed in the Community but must be classified in Class II"

Ach, The French can get wee Bannas too. So that pretty much wipes out that benefit.

Cheezus wept! They're not still banging on about the Covid vaccine being a Brexit benefit? That was proven wrong so many years ago.

In fact, if it hadn't been for the Brexit government of the idiots, we alsmost certainly would have had far fewer Covid deaths, and the country would have suffered much less.

Ardent Brexiteers have never been bothered about facts and reality. It's all about beliefs and feelz to them.

Yup, And here is another one I found when searching for Brexit benefits. Old Boris himself, in a Government publication. Might be of interest to @MaybeNotBob and @GlobeTrotter2000 too.

Mind though, this is from Jan 2022, so things might have changed.

The Benefits of Brexit: How the UK is taking advantage of leaving the EU (publishing.service.gov.uk)

Lets look at the headline highlights :

"There are a great many benefits to Brexit: control of our democracy, borders and waters; control of our own money, helping us to level up across the country; the freedom to regulate in a more proportionate and agile way that works for our great British businesses; benefits for people that put money back in their pockets, improve their rights and choices as consumers and give them access to better healthcare; the ability to shape a better environment as we achieve net zero by 2050; enhanced welfare standards for our animals; and a Britain that is truly global once again, with its own seat in international fora, reaching out and agreeing new trade deals and strategic partnerships. "

There we go. Fluffier than my DDs winter slippers.

Of course, some might say we would be worse off today if we had stayed in the EU. But I very much doubt they would be able to indicate what.

@RedTagAlan

Ladies and Gents. I hereby declare Brexit a failure, and I present as evidence the fact that Globetrotter cannot provide an example of a single universal benefit that came from it.

How about sending this each of the UK MPs and see what they say?

There is no such thing as a universal benefit or disadvantage of any policy or decision made by government. There will always be winners and losers.

The proof that universal benefits don’t exist is proved by history. For example, there has never been an election in which a party won all seats or 100% of the vote.

As Globetrotter won't name a benefit.

I have named my benefits as I have personally experienced them. What others have personally experienced I don’t know.

You are applying the logic that if there are no universal benefits (which there never will be in my view) then there can only be universal disadvantages. Incorrect.

If there are more winners than losers, I would say the policy voted for and enacted was the best decision. For example, about 81% of UK GDP is services and accounts for about 83 % of employment. The remaining 17% is about 0.5% farming and 16.5% manufacturing.

Since Brexit, services exports have grown substantially from £339 billion to £538 billion to the end of 2024 (source ONS) as they are not regulated by the TCA with the EU.

Exports of goods has declined in line with the trend that started under the Thatcher era when she took office in 1979. Forty years before Brexit.

So, if 80%+ of the both the economy and working population are better off since Brexit, then the UK as a whole is better off. Even though there are some who are worse off.

I've got one!!!
I've thought of a Brexit benefit!

The death of the Tory Party!

Here is an example of a universal benefit. The 350 million a week for the NHS.

Would you agree that would fit the definition ? I think it would

To quote you : " since Brexit, services exports have grown substantially from £339 billion to £538 billion to the end of 2024 (source ONS) as they are not regulated by the TCA with the EU.
Exports of goods has declined in line with the trend that started under the Thatcher era when she took office in 1979. Forty years before Brexit."

Why mention since Brexit ? Was there no growth in export value before Brexit ? The World Bank data says yes. See where the dips are on the graph. 2009, 2016, 2020. This graph is goods and services, not just services unfortunately. Not an omission by intent from me, just what I found.

Exports of goods and services (current US$) - United Kingdom | Data (worldbank.org)

Where you say this : "So, if 80%+ of the both the economy and working population are better off since Brexit, then the UK as a whole is better off. Even though there are some who are worse off."

Your data in no way supports that conclusion. For one, you do not separate domestic and export. Or are you saying 80% of the UK population are employed in the services export sector ? Bit of a leap there.

Re the world bank data, I find long term graphs better than specific time segments. The graph I posted shows a pretty decent positive gradient overall, but as you know, it's the interpolation that matters. ( Yes, I know you don't such things).

Lets see what the British Chamber of Commerce says.

The Reality of UK Services Trade Post-Brexit - British Chambers of Commerce

From that, note this bit: "Overall, UK services exports are estimated to be 4-5% lower than they would have been without Brexit. "

I bolded it because it is possibly important.

That 4-5% of course does not include expenditure to get the trade deals to keep exports going. The concessions made to make trade deals.

Well, the Davis Downside Dossier does include some benefits. 39 of them.

Unfortunately, the downsides number over 2000...

https://yorkshirebylines.co.uk/regular-features/the-davis-downside-dossier/

@RedTagAlan

Here is an example of a universal benefit. The 350 million a week for the NHS

The NHS has received more than £350 million per week since 2016 from government funding.

https://ukandeu.ac.uk/what-has-brexit-meant-for-the-nhs/

Overall, UK services exports are estimated to be 4-5% lower than they would have been without Brexit.

The key word is estimate as opposed to actual.

If you prefer long term trends, take a look at:

https://www.briefingsforbritain.co.uk/brexit-productivity-evidence/

It concludes as follows:

Britain certainly has a productivity growth problem, although it is far from alone in that. All the advanced economies have seen a notable slowdown in productivity growth since the global financial crisis with the reasons for this still debated. In addition, it is also true that the level of productivity in the UK lags that in the US in particular. The reasons for this are varied – among other factors poor education and skills, low levels of R&D and capital stock in hi-tech industries, misallocation of capital, regulatory constraints, an unfavourable structural pattern in the economy and statistical measurement problems have all been offered up as explanations. But these are very long-standing issues and nothing to do with Brexit.

Bold added by myself for easy reference.

Is the end of the Tory party on that list?

If there an alleged 2,000 downsides, why do remain supporters say Brexit was a single issue?

I didn't see 2000 options on the referendum form, did you?

Idiot

@MaybeNotBob

I didn't see 2000 options on the referendum form, did you?

I saw two. The ballot paper could not be presented any other way.

However, Cameron’s booklet sent to every household referenced several subjects that could be impacted by a vote to leaves. Whether or not people read them will never be known.

And not a single one of them was on the ballot form.

Idiot

@MaybeNotBob

And not a single one of them was on the ballot form.

Just like in a general election. The only boxes that can be selected are the names of the candidates which have their party logo alongside. No reference to manifesto pledges appear on the ballot paper.

So now you understand. General Elections aren't a referendum on Brexit!

I knew you'd get there eventually!

Yes it's a "one and done" op. Always suss.

@MaybeNotBob

So now you understand. General Elections aren't a referendum on Brexit!

So, why on the 5 September 2019 episode of BBC Question Time did the representatives of;

Liberal Democrats
Brexit Party
Labour Party
Conservative Party
SNP

Spell out their policy regards Brexit so close to the general election rather than discuss their other policies?

The 2024 general election may have been less about Brexit because it had already happened, partially. However, as of 5 September 2019, it had not as MPs had been successful in forcing extensions and introducing the Benn Act.

Go on! I'm sure you can work it out if you really try!

@MaybeNotBob

Go on! I'm sure you can work it out if you really try!

I have. The 2019 general election was all about Brexit.

Oh, and you were doing so well...

Wow. Everything from daffodils to Elton John.

That is an impressive bit of research. Have the pro Brexit folk done an equivalent ?

@GlobeTrotter2000

I think Toons first law of flerth is rapidly coming into play here : Flerf citations always contradict the flerf’s claim. No exceptions.

The laws of flerth (flat earthers) is a humorous guide used in the "debunking flat earth" community. The laws spill over into many subjects where the debate opponent does not have a proverbial leg to stand on, but still insists on flogging the long dead horse.

The 350 million a week for the NHS.

The point I made was that the 350 million a week would be considered a universal benefit. You replied saying spending has increased by more than that, and you posted a link.

You posted a link that makes it totally clear that the raise in spending DOES NOT come from the promised 350 million. It came from , quote, "taxes, borrowing and squeezing other departments."

Did you happen to see all the downsides listed on that NHS article link ? I could not find a single positive in that article.

So yup, re the 350million and your response, I reckon Toons first law of flerth applies.

UK services exports are estimated to be 4-5% lower than they would have been without Brexit.

We were discussing exports, I presented world bank data that showed the trend over many years, to demonstrate that your rather specific post brexit data might be, can we say ,cherry picked. I also produced a British Chamber of commerce article saying how the gradient of this trend now means a reduction post Brexit. You don't like projections, estimates, interpolations, polls etc.. we know we know.

The reference material you present to debunk my stuff re exports is from a pro Brexit website. Lets have a look at the "about" page. Quote:

"BriefingsforBritain (originally BriefingsforBrexit) was founded in response to a widespread media view that all sensible and informed people opposed Brexit. We knew that this was simply not true and viewed it as divisive and tending to undermine democratic legitimacy. Our original aim was thus to provide a platform for informed analysis and for the expression of opinion which believed that the future welfare of Britain and Europe require that the choice made in the Referendum should be fully and positively carried out."

No poblem that you use such a pro biased site. None at all, it's the data presented that matters after all.

By the way, I bolded that bit in the above mission statement, because it appears the folk at that site do think the ref was democratic. Read on a bit on that about page and we get " Democracy has been upheld, the legitimacy of our system of government has been restored, and our independence as a nation reaffirmed. ". Yeah, cool.

Sorry to ramble, back on track. We were discussing exports, something that you claimed was a positive, a claim that I debunked, and you came back with an article about PRODUCTIVITY. Ohh, and it's an article with lots of estimates, projections..... and a hell of a lot of "maybe's". Graphs of trends feature a lot, the stuff you don't trust.

I reckon that can be a more loose demonstration of Toons first law of flerth. Your citation does not contradict, but it is talking about something different.

The pro- Brexit site you linked by the way. A quick read of that, clicking on the links embedded, I see indicators that Toons laws of flerth might apply to that too. Towards the bottom of the article, we find this :" . We may also note that successive vintages of the OBR’s forecasts of UK productivity have been hopelessly wrong-they have not demonstrated any expertise in this area.". The bit in bold there is a link to a FT article I can't open. If I could open it, would I find another example of first law of flerth ?

M