Brexit Mega Thread 16 – Who's Next?

[LouiseCollins28]

We are approaching the 6th anniversary of Brexit, or I suppose the 5th, if you count the period of transition as "in."

Since then, the world has endured Covid-19, seen war in Ukraine and many other things. Brexit has had reduced salience in the minds of many people recently.

When digesting the latest setbacks to befall the elite who govern our islands, a phrase I keep returning to, is “OK, so now do you get it?”

Brexit is undoubtedly the biggest “OK, so now do you get it?” moment directed at our leaders in my life. It’s surely the largest since 1979, since the Labour victory of 1945? or even since the advent of universal suffrage?

The U.K. local elections in 2026, and subsequent national ones, could see a big increase in support for the Green Party and Reform U.K. Two parties with more different attitudes to European integration could scarcely be found, so Brexit’s salience in the U.K. may rise again soon
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There are many electoral contests in progress or coming across Europe too (the Netherlands and France, for example) which will be worth paying attention to. Maybe the next questions we will face are less about "what next?" and more about "who's next?"

Relations between mainland Europe and the UK remain a worthy topic for discussion, whoever leads the nations of Europe, or leads the E.U. itself.

Yes, and I wish I was wrong.

But the nonsense you keep repeating is, as I say, nonsense. It doesn't matter that MPs voted to enact Brexit - that is the correct way to run our democracy. The actual important thing is that idiots like you voted for it.

If Remain had won, do you honestly think MPs would have voted to leave the EU? Are you honestly that stupid?

There were no elections in my area but Reform hasn't done especially well in the south east. There were a lot more Labour seats up for grabs this time, and the relentless talking up of Reform by the Press will not have helped Labour.

Reform are basically UKIP in different clothes and I remember about 10 years ago they won a significant number of council seats. Most of their councillors only lasted the one term: they end up fighting each other, the electorate get sick of them and they get booted out next time. One or two of their councillors did knuckle down to do the jobs they were elected for.

@MaybeNotBob

The actual important thing is that idiots like you voted for it.

Article 50 was triggered by 498 MPs on 29 March 2017 subsequent to the Gina Miller case. So, the referendum outcome was effectively cancelled.

Remain supporters were offered the chance to overturn the vote cast by MPs in the 2019 general election. Had the same number of people who voted remain in the referendum voted for the Liberal Democrat’s, Brexit would not have happened.

Only those that voted remain in 2016 can explain why they did not vote for the Liberal Democrat’s in 2019. Why don’t you ask them?

If Remain had won, do you honestly think MPs would have voted to leave the EU? Are you honestly that stupid?

What ifs don’t count. Remain won neither the referendum in 2016 nor the Parliamentary vote in 2017. If you read the 2015 EU referendum act, it states that government was not obligated to follow the vote. Link is:

https://ukconstitutionallaw.org/2016/07/08/rebecca-williams-do-we-have-to-follow-the-result-of-the-brexit-referendum/

People are allowed to vote however they wish. It’s called democracy.

And there you go again, repeating that utter load of bollocks...

Vote Leave won and Brexit has happened.

I know of councillors who were
BNP
then UKIP
then Brexit
and now Reform
same faces

interestingly in Lewisham the new Green Councillors include a chunk of Corbynites to left Labour a couple of years back

Only those that voted remain in 2016 can explain why they did not vote for the Liberal Democrat’s in 2019. Why don’t you ask them?

I did and we booted out a Tory. Who then got elevated to the HoL where she is equally useless.

I think it's fair to say that my October prediction of big increases in support for the Green Party and Reform UK in the May 2026 elections has been shown to be accurate on last week's results.

Today we have Sir Keir reset speech and the suggestion that he will draw Britain into closer ties with the EU again, seemingly without breaching the 'red lines' from Labour's 2024 manifesto. I'm sure there is scope for this, but I suggest it is somewhat limited.

It's a live question whether PM Starmer will be in office long enough to deliver on much of what he said this morning. I'm deeply biased on the question of his leadership (I can't stand the man) so not a sound judge of the likelihood of his staying long-term. I'd be confident in saying he won't lead Labour into 2028/9 though. Whoever does, I think their offer on relationnship with the EU will be very different in 2028/9 than that set out in 2024.

Will also be interesting to see how Conservative thinking on our future relationship with the EU develops now that it is clear that many of there most "Leave/Out" inclined voters have switched their votes to Reform UK.

After decades of flip flopping between Conservative and the Labour Party, but without any great outcomes, I am not surprised that both the Green and Reform Party are gaining support.
However, the FPTP system will likely keep them out.

Will also be interesting to see how Conservative thinking on our future relationship with the EU develops now that it is clear that many of there most "Leave/Out" inclined voters have switched their votes to Reform UK.

It will be interesting to see if the Tory party can rebuild itself. Johnson drove most or all of the moderates out. The right wingers have defected to Reform - who is left? Despite all the guff about how Labour has failed in this election, which is true, I believe that the Tories lost a greater percentage of the seats they were defending. They didn't have nearly as many up for election, so the scale of their defeat is not fully apparent.

I think that's true. Proportinally the Conservatives lost more. Labour on the numbers lost more, Labour were defending more this time. Next year it would appear to be a more even split between Lab and Con in terms of what they are trying to defend.

Oddly I suspect the Conservatives might be able to field some high quality candidates at a future GE if some of those who left after their 2024 defeat stand again and the party is less overtly pro-Brexit (NB this would require a different leader.) 6 months ago I was sure Kemi would be going after the May locals, now I think she could be LOTO for a long while yet.

...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/may/19/delusional-desperate-and-mostly-called-david-brexiters-gather-to-lament-the-great-betratal

UK was the fastest growing economy in the G7. Also, Rachel Reeves has reduced tariffs on 100 supermarket food products. This could not have happened without Brexit.

link is:

https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/chancellor-rachel-reeves-statement-to-parliament

Good to see you think Labour is doing well even with the restrictions Brexit put upon the UK

Not sure how you can state this couldn't have happened without Brexit, can you explain?

@DuncinToffee

Immigration is down too if figures are correct.

EU has high tariffs on; food, clothing and footwear which is what those on low wages in UK spend most of their income on.

Individual EU members can’t set their own tariffs. So, UK would not have been able to reduce tariffs if still an EU member.

Similar to the tariffs applied by the US. Had UK been an EU member, exports to the US (Worlds Largest Economy) would be subject to a 15% tariff as opposed to 10%.

Odd logic the EU has. They don’t want cheaper goods undercutting their own prices, but happy to allow countries to join if they can supply cheap labour.

You are talking specifically about the suspension of some import tariffs, not the VAT or free bus rides.

You are correct, we couldn't have done that as an individual country within the EU.

Likely we wouldn't have needed to but we will never know.

Why are you doubting rhe immigration numbers?

The sources of the reduced immigration are:

BBC - Brexit Bashing Corporation
Guardian - Also anti Brexit

Maybe Labour thinks if they can convince voters that immigration is decreasing they will be less likely to vote for Reform?

Those sources report the official numbers.

Are you doubting the official numbers?

BBC - Brexit Bashing Corporation
Guardian - Also anti Brexit

Neither of which are true. Larry Elliot of the Guardian was pro Brexit. And consider how many times Mr Brexit i.e. Farage appeared on Question Time, but funnily enough wasn't available when the programme was broadcast from his Clacton constituency.

@Peregrina

There are no documented examples in which an MP appeared on BBC Question Time when broadcast in their own constituency. Makes sense so as not to skew the debate.

Regards the BBC, watch the 4 April 2019 episode of Question Time in Dulwich. Charles Morton pointed out to Fiona Bruce that there had been twice as many remain supporters on the programme compared to leave. Link is:

https://ukandeu.ac.uk/was-bbc-question-time-balanced-or-biased-on-brexit/

Kenneth Clarke, Conservative, has appeared on question time the most. Guess what, he is a remain supporter and voted against trigger of article 50 when MPs voted 29 March 2017.

He said on one episode that there should not have been a referendum.

@DuncinToffee

Regards immigration numbers, if they are in decline that’s good, but still too high. Well above the 10s of thousands promised by several governments over decades.

Regards immigration numbers, if they are in decline that’s good, but still too high. Well above the 10s of thousands promised by several governments over decades.

Worth pointing out that this promise was made by a succession of Conservative governments over 14 years, so hardly decades.

Clarke appeared over the space of about 43 years. Farage has appeared predominantly since the Brexit subject came up, and has had significant over-exposure since then.

Clarke appeared over the space of about 43 years.
And was a senior member of the Tory Party. Until the last election Farage had failed to get elected to Parliament.

@pointythings

In 2001 Tony Blair promised to reduce immigration in 2001. Link is:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2001/may/04/immigration.immigrationandpublicservices

but then in 2006 opened the floodgates to Eastern Europe by removing the caps.

@MaybeNotBob

Emily Thornberry and Lisa Nandy, both Labour and anti Brexit, have been on question time the most since 2015. Link is:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Question_Time_episodes

@Peregrina

Look at the time line:

2013 - David Cameron promises a referendum

2015 - Conservatives win the general election

2016 - Outcome of the referendum was to leave

2017 - 498 MPs vote to leave the EU

2019 - Conservatives win the general election

2020 - UK leaves the EU 11pm 31 January

2024 - Nigel Farage becomes an MP 4 July

So, Brexit was put on the table and voted in long before Nigel Farage became an MP.

Good and bad immigration, 'Expat'