Brexit Mega Thread 16 – Who's Next?

[LouiseCollins28]

We are approaching the 6th anniversary of Brexit, or I suppose the 5th, if you count the period of transition as "in."

Since then, the world has endured Covid-19, seen war in Ukraine and many other things. Brexit has had reduced salience in the minds of many people recently.

When digesting the latest setbacks to befall the elite who govern our islands, a phrase I keep returning to, is “OK, so now do you get it?”

Brexit is undoubtedly the biggest “OK, so now do you get it?” moment directed at our leaders in my life. It’s surely the largest since 1979, since the Labour victory of 1945? or even since the advent of universal suffrage?

The U.K. local elections in 2026, and subsequent national ones, could see a big increase in support for the Green Party and Reform U.K. Two parties with more different attitudes to European integration could scarcely be found, so Brexit’s salience in the U.K. may rise again soon
.
There are many electoral contests in progress or coming across Europe too (the Netherlands and France, for example) which will be worth paying attention to. Maybe the next questions we will face are less about "what next?" and more about "who's next?"

Relations between mainland Europe and the UK remain a worthy topic for discussion, whoever leads the nations of Europe, or leads the E.U. itself.

Yes, and I wish I was wrong.

But the nonsense you keep repeating is, as I say, nonsense. It doesn't matter that MPs voted to enact Brexit - that is the correct way to run our democracy. The actual important thing is that idiots like you voted for it.

If Remain had won, do you honestly think MPs would have voted to leave the EU? Are you honestly that stupid?

There were no elections in my area but Reform hasn't done especially well in the south east. There were a lot more Labour seats up for grabs this time, and the relentless talking up of Reform by the Press will not have helped Labour.

Reform are basically UKIP in different clothes and I remember about 10 years ago they won a significant number of council seats. Most of their councillors only lasted the one term: they end up fighting each other, the electorate get sick of them and they get booted out next time. One or two of their councillors did knuckle down to do the jobs they were elected for.

@MaybeNotBob

The actual important thing is that idiots like you voted for it.

Article 50 was triggered by 498 MPs on 29 March 2017 subsequent to the Gina Miller case. So, the referendum outcome was effectively cancelled.

Remain supporters were offered the chance to overturn the vote cast by MPs in the 2019 general election. Had the same number of people who voted remain in the referendum voted for the Liberal Democrat’s, Brexit would not have happened.

Only those that voted remain in 2016 can explain why they did not vote for the Liberal Democrat’s in 2019. Why don’t you ask them?

If Remain had won, do you honestly think MPs would have voted to leave the EU? Are you honestly that stupid?

What ifs don’t count. Remain won neither the referendum in 2016 nor the Parliamentary vote in 2017. If you read the 2015 EU referendum act, it states that government was not obligated to follow the vote. Link is:

https://ukconstitutionallaw.org/2016/07/08/rebecca-williams-do-we-have-to-follow-the-result-of-the-brexit-referendum/

People are allowed to vote however they wish. It’s called democracy.

And there you go again, repeating that utter load of bollocks...

Vote Leave won and Brexit has happened.

I know of councillors who were
BNP
then UKIP
then Brexit
and now Reform
same faces

interestingly in Lewisham the new Green Councillors include a chunk of Corbynites to left Labour a couple of years back

Only those that voted remain in 2016 can explain why they did not vote for the Liberal Democrat’s in 2019. Why don’t you ask them?

I did and we booted out a Tory. Who then got elevated to the HoL where she is equally useless.

I think it's fair to say that my October prediction of big increases in support for the Green Party and Reform UK in the May 2026 elections has been shown to be accurate on last week's results.

Today we have Sir Keir reset speech and the suggestion that he will draw Britain into closer ties with the EU again, seemingly without breaching the 'red lines' from Labour's 2024 manifesto. I'm sure there is scope for this, but I suggest it is somewhat limited.

It's a live question whether PM Starmer will be in office long enough to deliver on much of what he said this morning. I'm deeply biased on the question of his leadership (I can't stand the man) so not a sound judge of the likelihood of his staying long-term. I'd be confident in saying he won't lead Labour into 2028/9 though. Whoever does, I think their offer on relationnship with the EU will be very different in 2028/9 than that set out in 2024.

Will also be interesting to see how Conservative thinking on our future relationship with the EU develops now that it is clear that many of there most "Leave/Out" inclined voters have switched their votes to Reform UK.

After decades of flip flopping between Conservative and the Labour Party, but without any great outcomes, I am not surprised that both the Green and Reform Party are gaining support.
However, the FPTP system will likely keep them out.

Will also be interesting to see how Conservative thinking on our future relationship with the EU develops now that it is clear that many of there most "Leave/Out" inclined voters have switched their votes to Reform UK.

It will be interesting to see if the Tory party can rebuild itself. Johnson drove most or all of the moderates out. The right wingers have defected to Reform - who is left? Despite all the guff about how Labour has failed in this election, which is true, I believe that the Tories lost a greater percentage of the seats they were defending. They didn't have nearly as many up for election, so the scale of their defeat is not fully apparent.

I think that's true. Proportinally the Conservatives lost more. Labour on the numbers lost more, Labour were defending more this time. Next year it would appear to be a more even split between Lab and Con in terms of what they are trying to defend.

Oddly I suspect the Conservatives might be able to field some high quality candidates at a future GE if some of those who left after their 2024 defeat stand again and the party is less overtly pro-Brexit (NB this would require a different leader.) 6 months ago I was sure Kemi would be going after the May locals, now I think she could be LOTO for a long while yet.