Brexit Mega Thread 16 – Who's Next?

[LouiseCollins28]

We are approaching the 6th anniversary of Brexit, or I suppose the 5th, if you count the period of transition as "in."

Since then, the world has endured Covid-19, seen war in Ukraine and many other things. Brexit has had reduced salience in the minds of many people recently.

When digesting the latest setbacks to befall the elite who govern our islands, a phrase I keep returning to, is “OK, so now do you get it?”

Brexit is undoubtedly the biggest “OK, so now do you get it?” moment directed at our leaders in my life. It’s surely the largest since 1979, since the Labour victory of 1945? or even since the advent of universal suffrage?

The U.K. local elections in 2026, and subsequent national ones, could see a big increase in support for the Green Party and Reform U.K. Two parties with more different attitudes to European integration could scarcely be found, so Brexit’s salience in the U.K. may rise again soon
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There are many electoral contests in progress or coming across Europe too (the Netherlands and France, for example) which will be worth paying attention to. Maybe the next questions we will face are less about "what next?" and more about "who's next?"

Relations between mainland Europe and the UK remain a worthy topic for discussion, whoever leads the nations of Europe, or leads the E.U. itself.

I heard a British born woman in Hungary pointing out that 3 years full maternity pay - an Orban policy - was rather nice

Lesbian rights are different from gay rights
Trans rights are another thing all together
and womens rights are in a different place

Young liberal Eastern Europeans will flow to where the business opoortunities are
(which is not the UK)

3 year's maternity pay was standard in Czechia many years ago, as they had a small population and wanted to encourage growth in that department. I suspect it wasn't exclusive to Hungary...

The matter of marriage equality applies to gay and lesbian people equally.

I know you are GC so won't go into anything trans.

Women have died in Poland because of a lack.of safe abortion.

Why would Eastern Europeans need to flow anywhere if being an EU member creates, growth, opportunities and prosperity?

Because freedom to live your life the way you want to matters. Economics aren't everything. Obviously. 🙄

They might want it rather than need.

Freedom of choice, movement

Remove the barriers, unless like brexiteers you would like to build more walls.

@DuncinToffee

They might want it rather than need.

How do the lesser developed countries benefit if they lose the younger generation, who have been educated and trained at the expense of the state, to other countries?

Freedom of choice, movement

If you have the experience and skills other countries need, you don’t need to be an EU citizen to find work in other countries. I have worked in many countries outside the EU since 1988. Interestingly, I have spent more time in the EU since 2020 than ever before.

Remove the barriers, unless like brexiteers you would like to build more walls.

If you don’t want any borders in the World, vote for the Green Party.

The EU has walls for people with passports, but none for people who arrive illegally. Spain is about to grant legal status to 500,000 undocumented immigrants, but has not yet adopted the Travel to Europe app to enable tourists (14% of both Spains GDP and employment) to enter more easily.

@pointythings

Economics aren't everything. Obviously.

Since the referendum held 23 June 2023, remain supporters have stated UK departure from the EU will damage the UK economy, but now they say economics aren’t everything. How does that work?

I pointed out that there are reasons beyond economic ones why young people might want to.leave Poland: no equal marriage laws, repression of LGBT people, no safe and legal abortion. If you do not understand that, I will adjust my understanding of your intellectual capacities.

I agree with you that the "pro family" policies have turned out to be harmful to some women and many gays and lesbians.

Luckily with free movement Poles and Hungarians and Czechs were able to move to saner countries.

Remember that before the fall of the Iron Curtain, abortion was the primary method of birth control - harming women yet again.

See also parts of the USA

I'm well aware of abortion policy behind the Iron curtain, also in China. But as with everything, swinging the other way is just as bad. Nobody should be forced to have an abortion when they don't want one. Nobody should be denied an abortion when they do.

'Pro Family' is as bad a euphemism as 'Pro Life'.

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https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-britain-rejoin-eu-philip-rycroft-b2963962.html

Gibraltar’s Chief Minister says the U.K. should rejoin the EU

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/04/23/britain-should-rejoin-eu-says-gibraltars-first-minister/

Rejoin will never happen. Reasons are:

UK MPs must first vote to trigger Article 49. Labour offered a second referendum if they won the 2019 general election. The outcome was their worst result in 84 years.

Turn the clock to 2024 and Labour doubled their numbers of seats on a manifesto that included the promise that UK would not join either the customs union or the single market. So, Labour are aware that rejoin is not a vote winner.

Starmer has also ruled out a return to free movement. Considering Spain’s recent decision to grant legal status to 500,000 undocumented immigrants, I would say that ruling out free movement is essential.

Even, if UK MPs voted to trigger Article 49, there is no obligation for the EU to accept. Only takes one member to say no.

Trade deals that UK has done with other countries since Brexit may not align with the EU regulations. It would not be a good move to tear up the deal UK has with the US.

That's your (or your bosses) opinion.

Rejoin is inevitable - it's just about the timing. The sooner, the less damage...

Rejoin is inevitable - it's just about the timing. The sooner, the less damage...

Where is the evidence that rejoin is inevitable? Why has Starmer, with his 400+ seats in Parliament, not already triggered Article 49 if there is evidence of damage?

Labour are doing badly in polls. So, to go back on the promise of no return to; customs union, single market and free movement in addition to no tax rises, which has happened in two consecutive budgets, will not help Labours cause.

On the subject of evidence, your statement that the cost of a rejoin will be recovered in the first year remains unsubstantiated.

Just keep voting Reform from your EU country of residence

I will vote for Reform on 7 May 2026 whilst in the UK. My next assignment, Denmark, does not start until mid June 2026.

Poor Denmark, they've got enough problems with Trump and Greenland...

Enough time to paint some roundabouts

Denmark has a good tax concession for expats.

https://vialtopartners.com/regional-alerts/denmark-employment-tax-relaxation-ot-the-danish-expat-tax-the-salary-threshold-for-2026-is-now-confirmed

Denmark is an EU country

Just passed through Schiphol airport. I timed the biometric scan. It was less than 60 seconds. The cost was zero.

I am now waiting at the luggage carousel alongside those with EU passports.

So, what happened to the scare stories about queues hours long?

@DuncinToffee

Denmark is an EU country

One which understands the value of highly skilled migrants who will contribute to their economy. Others include:

Netherlands
Spain
Portugal
Greece
Italy

You are doing a great job in showing how successful the EU is 👏

Which WE would be able to do were we still in the EU.

You're really demonstrating the opposite of what you think you're demonstrating!