Brexit mega thread part 15a - looking forwards

[Talkinpeace]

Just rebooting the most recent thread

At the moment the UKs issues are rather over shadowed by events elsewhere
but maybe that is a good thing.

The German election on Sunday is worth watching
Right wing European politicians pulling out of CPAC speeches because they realise its not a good look
Farage floundering to stay relevant

and the possibility of the return of free movement for our kids if not us

Relations between mainland Europe and the UK remain a worthy topic for discussion

Nothing to see here...

https://bsky.app/profile/implausibleblog.bsky.social/post/3loh53ho36s2c

Sooo...

Are you telling me that the government - successive governments actually - of the UK are not exactly responsive to the Will Of The People? It almost reminds me of another parliamentary body to which the British people sent representatives....

If you are gnashing your teeth in frustration about governments who pay no attention to what is really galling the electorate, please explain why the people have trotted out to vote for both Tories and Labour several times in the nine years since the referendum, and consider the proposition that actually, most people are either immigrants themselves, or not that concerned about immigration.

If you're gnashing your teeth at the constant reminders that the UK doesn't exist in a very special bubble that is cut off from the rest of the world, I suggest you stop that nonsense.

2025 - 2016 = 9, btw.

@mathanxiety

The UK did not leave the EU in 2016. The outcome of the Gina Miller case was that Cameron did not have the authority to trigger article 50 by himself, but it had to be done by an act of parliament. On 29 March 2017, UK MPs (the people who make UK laws) voted 498 to leave the EU and 113 to remain in the EU.

So, in accordance with EU Article 50, the UK should have left the EU on 29 March 2019 with or without a withdrawal agreement. However, it didn’t happen. Labour got excited when the won 40% of the vote in the 2017 general election and switched from leave to remain as they thought they could force and win a general election. The outcome was MPs floundered around for 2.5 years trying to over turn the law passed on 29 March 2017 up until Boris Johnson won the 2019 general election with a majority.

UK left the EU 11pm 31 January 2020 with a transition period to 31 December 2020.

1 May 2025 - 31 December 2020 = 4 years and 4 months

Both Conservative and Labour governments promised in their manifestos to make Brexit happen and so people voted for them, but the promises have never materialised. Does that explain the outcome of the recent local elections in the UK where Reform came first? I would say yes.

I remember your username from the past. Are you the one that thinks Ireland is a net contributor to the EU even though it’s a provable fact that Ireland has taken more money from the EU then they have returned to the EU? If so, it explains how you calculated, wrongly, that’s 9 years since UK left the EU.

'Both Conservative and Labour governments promised in their manifestos to make Brexit happen and so people voted for them, but the promises have never materialised'

Governments could pledge to build a bridge to New York and it would never happen. The promises made by Brexiters were either unachievable or contradictory.

@hoopyvest

Governments could pledge to build a bridge to New York and it would never happen.

But no government has pledged to build a bridge to New York.

The promises made by Brexiters were either unachievable or contradictory.

Providing examples may help to understand this.

Both Conservative and Labour governments promised in their manifestos to make Brexit happen and so people voted for them, but the promises have never materialised.

Come on now. You got your Brexit. You got your shiny new very dark blue passports, which was about the only tangible thing Brexiters wanted, although you could have had those before.

It only took 3 years for a FTA with India

Brexiteers are complaining about that now.

One could think they don't want the best for Britain

I would say the FTA with India is good.

As per Jacob Reds-Mogg, food, footwear and clothing is what the poorest in the UK spend most of their income on. So, reduced tariffs are useful.

Reduced tariffs are useful.
Yes. Free trade is useful. Like... free trade with 27 other close neighbours.

@Peregrina

https://www.reformparty.uk/

Maybe you want to take a look. I can’t find anything about passport colours. Maybe you can.

@StandFirm

Free trade is useful. Like... free trade with 27 other close neighbours.

Not if it prevents you from sourcing cheaper alternatives from elsewhere.

The UK still trades with the EU under the TCA. UK services (80% of UK economy) have boomed as services are not subject the regulatory and compliance requirements as applied to goods.

@DuncinToffee

It only took 3 years for a FTA with India

Not bad considering world events that commenced before UK was allowed to enter into trade discussions

That sums up Brexit, it failed but it is not as bad as it could have been

Sunlit uplands 🦄

Grok is getting less coherent by the day

Migrants coming to live and work in Britain will be expected to speak much better English under a bold new crackdown from Sir Keir Starmer's Labour government.

Starmer in a panic after last week’s local election results.

@DuncinToffee

Trade discussion between the EU and India resumed in 2021 after they had stopped in 2013. The aim is to be complete by the end of 2025. If that happens, then it's taken the EU 12+years to complete which is 4 times longer than UK

UK-India trade deal increases GDP 0.1%

Brexit lowers GDP by 5%

▶️Goldman Sachs: -5%
▶️Centre for European Reform: -5.2%
▶️National Institute of Economic and Social Research: -5–6%
▶️Cambridge Econometrics -5%

@DuncinToffee

Are they measured figures, or estimates?

If measured, then the GDP of; France and the other 25 EU members must have also declined as Germany is the only EU member to have a larger GDP than UK.

Also, you have made the assumption that higher GDP is certain to result in higher individual wealth. Not so, China is a good example. Second largest economy in the World, but per capita a mere US$ 13K per head.

EU per head is US$ 44K
Germany per head is US$ 56K
France per head is US$47K
UK per head is US$55K

Switzerland per head US$105K
Iceland per head 90K per head
Norway same as Iceland.

The devil will be in the detail with this one:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/may/08/keir-starmer-statement-us-trade-talks-donald-trump

I also wonder where that will leave the ongoing negotiations with the EU.

@StandFirm

I too am curious.

UK has recently agreed a FTA with India. Lower tariffs will be applied to imported goods from India such as; food clothing and footwear.

Likewise, the EU has indicated they wish to conclude a trade deal with India. Will they have the same lower tariffs as the UK? How would that sit with their single market protection policies?

If there are different tariffs applied to the same goods, will that not encourage smuggling?

As for a UK and USA trade deal, how does this sit with Starmer’s reset with the EU?

A trade deal with the EU is still expected to be agreed in the coming weeks, incl a youth mobility agreement.

@DuncinToffee

youth mobility agreement.

What about others who might not fall into the youth category? This sounds very like age discrimination. Maybe it should be reported to the ECHR?

Well done for missing the point so spectacularly.

So now you're saying immigration is still a 'problem' because Brexit hasn't been in place long enough...

You realise that it has always been in the power of British government - Brexit or no Brexit - to restrict or curtail immigration? I wonder why that didn't happen, if so many are as opposed to immigration, as you claim?

At least you've made it abundanrly clear that immigration was your motivation in supporting Brexit, so I suppose there's that.

@mathanxiety

So now you're saying immigration is still a 'problem' because Brexit hasn't been in place long enough...

No. UK has never had a Brexit supporting government. Also

Cheap Labour (immigration) = Higher profits for the elites.

So, whilst the average person in the street is worse off, there are some who are making big money from allowing cheap labour to enter the UK.

At least you've made it abundanrly clear that immigration was your motivation in supporting Brexit, so I suppose there's that.

Contrary to what many people think, Reform is not a one policy party. Policies such as:

No tax for people who earn below £20K

No inheritance tax

Are good for those at the lower end of the income scale.

The UK-US trade deal is a Brexit benefit, it will make up a microscopic part of the 4% GDP hit but we found one!