Brexit mega thread part 15a - looking forwards

[Talkinpeace]

Just rebooting the most recent thread

At the moment the UKs issues are rather over shadowed by events elsewhere
but maybe that is a good thing.

The German election on Sunday is worth watching
Right wing European politicians pulling out of CPAC speeches because they realise its not a good look
Farage floundering to stay relevant

and the possibility of the return of free movement for our kids if not us

Relations between mainland Europe and the UK remain a worthy topic for discussion

The UK is now politically quite aligned with the EU

Yes. France and Germany and are experiencing the same, if not bigger, immigration problems as UK.

The dangers of rapid expansion EU expansion Eastwards has come to roost. Huge influx of cheaper labour.

At the same time buying gas from Russia and buying almost everything else from China.

@Peregrina

things which happened ten years ago, and really not worth reading.

followed by:

Ten years ago there were a lot of UKIP councillors. Virtually all of them only lasted one term - they weren't very good and the electorate booted them out.

Contradictory

So, Reform have taken control of several councils.

I have buckets and buckets of popcorn at the ready.

For those with long memories, my predictions of how UKIP would handle running Thanet Council were pretty darned accurate.

November will be all change again when they get time barred.

I do wish you could learn to think Globetrotter.

You keep reminding us of how the country narrowly voted for Brexit ten years ago. You have little else to say.

I am reminding you that 10 years ago, and for a few years after that there were UKIP councillors and they got booted out. This point hasn't been made before as far as I recall.

For those with long memories, my predictions of how UKIP would handle running Thanet Council were pretty darned accurate.

The residents of Kent must be gluttons for punishment.

@Peregrina
I am pretty sure I was on my 'ListeningQuietly' name at that time
do not worry, MNHQ have always known
But I predicted that half would be time barred when they found out what councils did
and in fact it was two thirds !

@Peregrina

You keep reminding us of how the country narrowly voted for Brexit ten years ago. You have little else to say.

Brexit was voted into law on 29 March 2017 by a majority of MPs 498 to 113. That’s not narrow.

I am reminding you that 10 years ago, and for a few years after that there were UKIP councillors and they got booted out. This point hasn't been made before as far as I recall

Which contradicts your earlier post which stated what happened ten years ago are not worth reading about.

@Talkinpeace

For those with long memories, my predictions of how UKIP would handle running Thanet Council were pretty darned accurate

So, you were able to forecast the UKIP counsellor would be replaced by a conservative counsellor? Did you make a bet?

Globe
So, you were able to forecast the UKIP counsellor would be replaced by a conservative counsellor? Did you make a bet?

Counsellors tell the mentally ill they are normal.
Councillors are elected to councils.

Yes, I absolutely predicted that the UKIP Cllrs in Kent would stop attending meetings when they realised what the role entailed.
And no, most were replaced by independents in that instance.

The interesting thing is that councillors who don't bother to turn up can be barred and a by election called. Not so with MPs who can't be bothered to attend.

Indeed, let alone the Lords

So let me get this right;

People voted for Farage and Brexit because of immigration.

Brexit massively increased immigration.

Now they are voting for Farage again because of immigration.

But we're not allowed to call them thick...

According to the BBC Reform are up 662 and the Tories are down 662. So it looks nice and neat, but it isn't quite as simple as that.

The BBC is still going with it being a bad night for Labour, which it is, but not as bad as the absolute thrashing the Tories have received.

Still we must not write the Tories off yet - they can still come back from near death.

What's interesting about the UKIP vs Reform comparison is that in 2015 UKIP returned around 500 Cllrs so not very different to Reform today, however UKIP only took control of a single council, in Thanet. In 2016 it looks like the number of Councillors was similar, but obviously in different areas of the U.K.As Peregrina says, most of those UKIP Councillors got defeated the next time they stood.

Controlling Councils (10 it seems for Reform on today's results) does make this a different situation, IMO. I'm not making a judgement rn about whether that difference is favourable or unfavourable to Reform. They'll have the opportunity to do more, but also the responsiblity that comes with the power and opportunity. I suspect some places they will work well and in some they really won't.

@MaybeNotBob

Brexit massively increased immigration.

Incorrect logic (again). Immigration increased due to both failure of the Labour Party and Conservative Party.

Labour from 2006 to 2010 when limits on Eastern European immigration were scrapped. Conservatives from 2010 to 2024. And Labour again from 2024 onwards. Even though both Parties pledged to reduce immigration.

So, now that voters have seen the proof that neither Conservatives nor Labour can control immigration they have voted for Reform.

For your information, Brexit was to control immigration, not necessary to reduce immigration. This was confirmed by Professor Anand on BBC QT 23 June 2023.

But we're not allowed to call them thick...
But we're not allowed to call them thick...

I can’t speak for others, but when people say how I vote makes me thick, it makes me more determined to vote the same way just to irk them.

Reform won in Durham. A regional was Labour for almost a century due to its mining industry. So, I am pleased my vote helped.

@Peregrina

The residents of Kent must be gluttons for punishment.

Are the residents of Kent not allowed to chose for themselves how they vote?

If the Reform Councillors start fighting they might get voted out pretty smartish.

It certainly happened locally with the Tories a few years back. I was at a Count - there were two factions of Tories - who were studiously avoiding talking to each other. The electorate gets fed up with this sort of nonsense, and in that case, both Tory candidates lost, having held their respective seats for ever.

@Peregrina

If the Reform Councillors start fighting they might get voted out pretty smartish

lots of ifs and mights appearing.

Reform are favoured by those who can be bothered to vote and that’s that.

Racists are going to be racist and that is that

Caveat, not all Reform voters are racists

Reform are favoured by those who can be bothered to vote and that’s that.

We have to laugh at the blanket sweeping statements.

Locally, totally untrue, as a resident of one of the Councils which the Lib Dems won.

@DuncinToffee @Peregrina

More people voted for Reform. This is a fact.

Reform didn't even manage to put up a candidate in my Ward.

Brexit did clearly make immigration far worse, you only have to look at the numbers. It's not rocket surgery.
And if you're determined to prove how thick you are, knock yourself out...

Some facts are fake news

Brexit is a huge success

@Peregrina

Reform didn't even manage to put up a candidate in my Ward.

So, by definition your ward did not have the option to vote Reform. Can you provide evidence that the Liberals would have won even if there had been a Reform candidate?

Fact remains. More people voted Reform than for any of the other parties.

Can you provide evidence that the Liberals would have won even if there had been a Reform candidate?

Yes, you can count up the percentage of votes and see that even if all the other candidate's votes were added together the Lib Dem would still have won.

In some other wards, you can see that Reform took votes from the Tories and let either the Lib Dems or Labour in.