Brexit mega thread part 13: All eyes on Ireland

[SerendipityJane]

With the Windsor framework up & running, and the DUP having a "you could set your calendar by it" hissy fit, but Irish unification refusing to keep it's head down, what next in the long running sage of UK vs. the real world ?

@IItisymoi Which the Remain voters effectively KNEW before the referendum

So, like Hannibal and Peregrina, you know exactly why 17.4 million voted leave and 16.1 million voted remain?

To those who may have forgotten:

2017 - 498 MPs voted to trigger Article 50

2019 - Conservatives won the GE with a majority. Had the 16.1 people who voted remain in 2016 voted for the Liberal Democrat’s, Brexit would not have happened.

2024 - Labour win the GE with a large majority. Page 117 of their manifesto states UK will remain outside the EU.

Farage controlled both GE 2019 and 2024. Stayed out of the way of the conservatives in 2019 to make sure they had a majority. Went against them in 2024 so that Labour had a majority.

Add the 4.1 million votes for reform and the 2.9 million lower turnout is 7 million. Almost the same as the votes the conservatives lost between 2019 and 2024.

What Peregrina,Hanibal,and so many others KNEW is that Brexit would NEVER solve the many and varied 'problems' that the Leave camopaign said it would. And into the bargain would make any attempts to fix things a hell of a lot harder. In this we are being proven correct.

@GlobeTrotter2000 you still haven’t answered what Farage has personally done to ensure Brexit has been a success.

I have to agree. That comment is so demonstrably stupid it's hard to know where to go from there.

It demonstrates that we're dealing with the thickest of the thick AI so probably best not to engage.

As a wise man said, don't argue with an idiot, they'll drag you down to their level, and then beat you with experience...

I don't read his posts any more

As far as I can make out (from your responses), that was the right decision as he adds nothing

Control+Alt+delete is a handy combination, almost as good as taking the batteries out which gives satisfaction for longer.

None of GT2000s drivel can change the fact that Brexit is done. It's happened. There is no more to do and no more that can be done.

As instructed by the electorate the UK has definitely and finally left the EU.

Makes no difference what Brexit anyone wanted. This is what they got. If they aren't happy with it, then they are more than free to campaign for what they do want. But I can't see that makes sense since they have got what they wanted. Job done. Big up Boris etc.

Now GT2000 can shut up, or be reminded again that Brexit is done, dusted and frankly old news by now.

Not sure what this is supposed to add?

I mean yes, adopt the position that Brexit is done, that's good, why would any government not do that?

This is where we arrive at 'Schrodinger's Brexit' because that statement "Brexit is done" is concurrently true, and not true.

It's true because, well it is (!) and it's not true on the, much less firm, basis that lot's of the changes that were expected to flow from it?.... haven't really happened yet.

People who voted for Brexit will want to see the kind of change Brexit was expected to herald and of which we've seen only a small amount so far. I have next to no hope that the next 4/5 years of government will deliver more of that positive change.

"Brexit is done" is true. The opportunities that Brexit has created have yet to be fully realised. We've no bespoke trade deal with the USA, for example. I suspect that has more to do with the current occupant of the White House than the UK Govt. The next tennant might be more amenable.

This is where we arrive at 'Schrodinger's Brexit' because that statement "Brexit is done" is concurrently true, and not true.

It can't not be true, because as were were told - albeit in rather refined and ambiguous terms - people backing Leaver knew exactly what they wanted and what they were getting.

So having got it, it's done.

As I said, they are free to argue that they didn't know what they were getting and that this isn't what they wanted. But on the basis that would be a conformation and admission that the Remain campaign was right on both counts. I can't see it happening.

Hence: Brexit is done. Hurrah ! And moreover hurrah to the current government who are now setting about making it work by doing all the things we should have done.

For me, the best part is having been gifted their precious Brexit, there's no more to give Brexiteers. Well, not without a further referendum of some sort.

You are free to reply. But my response is the same. Brexit is done. Finished. Finito Compreto. And that's not me saying that. It's former Prime Minister and Brexit saviour Boris Johnson.

Brexit is done, however Leavers try to say it's not. What isn't done is the ongoing relationships with the EU, other countries and trading blocs.

Leavers especially people like Farage don't like the Brexit they have got? Tough.

As I said, I agree with you. Brexit is done.

Where I think I disagree with you (possibly) is that "there is no more to be done." On Brexit, you're right, Brexit is done.

On delivering on what people who voted for Brexit wanted to happen after Brexit was done, I think it's more complicated. I think I remember saying on here years ago something akin to "lots of the people who vote for Brexit won't get what they want, even if Brexit happens" i.e. they'll still want change.

I stand by that. Odious though I find their platform, the performance of Reform at the GE in 2024 suggests lots of other people still think it's true.

Of course it's true, lots of people want change. The trouble is (as it has always been), some want 10p, some want 50p, some want £234,876. They need to realise they all got what was on offer, put the change in their pockets, and move on.

It's true because, well it is (!) and it's not true on the, much less firm, basis that lot's of the changes that were expected to flow from it?.... haven't really happened yet.

Well, that's for the simple reason that they were never possible. If people voted for pie in the sky, as sold by snake oil salesmen, the end up with the shit sandwich which was all that was ever on offer.

There are no miraculous "benefits", just this miserable situation that you decided to impose on us...

What annoys me about it all is that Cameron was trying to appease his right wing and see off the UKIPers, and it failed. The right wing and UKIP, now rebranded as Reform and pretending that they are new, are still not satisfied, and never will be Until they end up destroying themselves.

Note btw how Cameron has scuttled off again, now that his gallivanting around the world has had to stop.

As said, Brexit is DONE BUT The lazy Leave voters have not got off their backsides and put the SERIOUS work into making the new so called benefits work. Yes you can go out and play BUT you have to pack your own sandwiches and put your own coat on as the door will stay locked while you are out for around 20 years or more.

Now Brexit is done and dusted, is there a need for a dedicated forum anymore ?

Really it's just politics now. I guess we've found the shelf life of the referendum: 8 years two weeks and 5 governments.

If I cared in the slightest about Leave voters I would like to hear how they have improved the lives of others through their choice to leave, but then this thread has been asking for 8 years for TANGIBLE improvements that Leave would achieve, that could not be done while a member of the EU. I suppose Coronation Street ran for over 50 years and Their hero JR Mogg suggested it will take 50 years for Brexit dividentds to arrive.

That'll all moot 😀

(The quickest path bath to rejoining is when Brexit is finished ....)

We needn't digress with the finer details now. File under "That's done" and move one.

Brexiteers knew what they were voting for. Got it. And they can be happy ever after. A rare success in politics.

I really can't stress how liberating it is taking this approach. It really does shut debate down. No Leaver dare admit that they didn't get what they wanted without having to admit they hadn't a clue what they were getting. And if they don't like it, then they can always have another referendum. That is when they can find a party interested. Because it seems to me right now no one is interested in that. Not even Reform. Whose main priorities appear to be with fixing the US electoral system now. And jolly good luck to them, I say. Plucky little party takes on big US problems.

Do we need this forum still? If there is no need it will wither on the vine. Remember the Brexit Arms - that closed some years back. I don't know if you can still find it now.

But there is IMO still a big case to be made for rejoining, or at least reaching the sort of deal which Norway has.

It's kept me sane over the last 8 years. At long last, despite what Starmer is supposed to have said about not rejoining, the tide does appear to be on the turn. So the belligerence towards the EU is gone and new areas of co-operation are being sought especially in defence.

I think Brexit still is an issue for voters in the south east, which is where I am. I think in part that explains the high number of LibDem seats won there.

I think it’s useful to have this forum, as long as the ramifications of Brexit are worth discussing.

The leaving is done and dusted - but the process and consequences are still unsettled. Johnson, a life-long dedicated remainer, realised he could fulfil his own personal political ambitions by positioning himself as champion of the hard brexit - there was no other vacancy for his ambitions. This made our lack of enough skilled and experienced negotiators worse as he promoted a host of incompetent sycophants to ministerial positions.

Hard brexit suited him fine as he had an excuse for doing almost nothing. An ex-colleague of his said he's never known him do more than two days work a week - and that was when he was editor of The Spectator, not when he was PM.

So in the sense that there is a whole load of neglected negotiations to get into, it's far from done & dusted.

Why would you want to "shut debate down?" Wow.

"No Leaver dare admit that they didn't get what they wanted without having to admit they hadn't a clue what they were getting."

I'm pleased for you if you find acknowleging that Brexit is done liberating.

Lack of daring, on the part of leave voters, is a luscious new accusation. Nicely done btw.

I've never admitted that I "didn't get what [I] wanted" because if I said that it wouldn't be true. I did, I wanted to leave, I got leaving. Now all I'm bothered about is that we "keep left" to coin a phrase.

As non EU members we have a whole new raft of immigration checks coming in the autumn that will further stifle the economy

@IItisymoi In this we are being proven correct.

So, were is your evidence? What happened to the:

500K to 800K jobs that would be lost just by a vote leave as stated in the UK treasury report?
The 4% shrink in GDP by quarter 3 in 2018 whilst the UK was still in the EU?
The property crash?
The emergency budget that would destroy the UK?

@VimtoVimto you still haven’t answered what Farage has personally done to ensure Brexit has been a success

Until he is PM, what can he do?

@prettybird

I am still waiting for you to explain the following:

Why should the remain votes in NI (Approx 440K) take priority over the 17.4 million who voted to leave?

How can Ireland be a net contributor if the amount they have received from the EU is Approx. 6 times more than Ireland have returned to the EU?

@SerendipityJane Now GT2000 can shut up, or be reminded again that Brexit is done, dusted and frankly old news by now

Brexit was not only about the UK ceasing to be a member of the EU. The UK being able to look elsewhere for trade and make their own laws are other factors which required that the UK was not a full member of the EU.

Many countries who are not members of the EU also have trade deals with the EU. Others have previously quoted 70+ countries. That is almost three times the number of current EU members.

The phrase frankly old news by now is very funny considering how many threads there have been on MN since 23 June 2016 attempting to argue:

The Referendum was not binding
498 MPs should not have voted to trigger Article 50
GFA made Brexit illegal.

No Leaver dare admit that they didn't get what they wanted without having to admit they hadn't a clue what they were getting

To know that to be true, you would either need to:

Know all 17.4 million who voted leave personally and have had time in the last 8 years to discuss why they voted to leave. That would require you to speak to Approx. 6,000 different people per day for the last 8 years. An impossible task I would say.

Alternatively,

You are telepathic/psychic and have to the ability to read the mind of others and can forecast the future with 100% accuracy. I would say this is not he case as you would be the richest person on the planet. Hence Brexit would not affect you at all, good or bad., and you would never have appeared on MN.

@LouiseCollins28

You have made some good points. The choice on the 2016 referendum ballot paper was Leave or Remain. Nothing else was on the ballot paper.

I too voted for Leave. That the UK left the EU is what I and the other 17.4 million wanted and got.

lots of the people who vote for Brexit won't get what they want, even if Brexit happens" i.e. they'll still want change.

Agreed. Nobody can know the reasons why each of the 17.4 million voted for leave or why 16.1 million voted to remain.

Even if they could, nobody ever gets 100% of what they want in any negotiation. Hence, Seren's attempt to argue that as 17.4 million leavers did not get 100% of what they wanted, then remain must be by definition correct is flawed on the basis that none of the instant doom forecasts made by remain ever appeared. ie remain did not get what they wanted either.

the performance of Reform at the GE in 2024 suggests lots of other people still think it's true

Agreed. Trade deals, dealing with immigration, etc., have been hampered by World events such as; COVID, conflicts and climate change pushing up the cost of living.