Brexit mega thread part 13: All eyes on Ireland

[SerendipityJane]

With the Windsor framework up & running, and the DUP having a "you could set your calendar by it" hissy fit, but Irish unification refusing to keep it's head down, what next in the long running sage of UK vs. the real world ?

@DuncinToffee

The only poll that counts is the one where people actually vote. A poor turnout and a Labour win is my forecast.

Globetrotter might well be excited that the Labour and Tory Manifestos don't show any commitment to rejoining the EU. But I recall the Tory Manifesto of 2015 showing a commitment to the Single Market. This was a manifesto promise which was not kept. This is very typical of Manifesto promises.

Parties promise what they think will keep them in power!

Brave forecast @GlobeTrotter2000

Globetrotter might well be excited that the Labour and Tory Manifestos don't show any commitment to rejoining the EU.

My understanding of the matter (from following the Tory logic website) is that anything not explicitly ruled out in a manifesto must be considered a definite commitment post election.

So Labour have clearly not ruled out banning marmalade and erasing Paddington from history. Therefore it will be the very first thing they do.

Alternatively, we can all ignore all the manifestos. Because ultimately that's what the press and the parties will do and are doing.

@Peregrina But I recall the Tory Manifesto of 2015 showing a commitment to the Single Market. This was a manifesto promise which was not kept

The Tory 2015 Manifesto also included a commitment to hold a referendum on EU membership. This promise was kept by Cameron and a referendum was held 23 June 2016. The outcome was a majority to leave the EU.

The promise to honour the result of the referendum was also kept when 498 MP's (The UK's law makers) voted to trigger Article 50 on the 29 March 2017.

Commitments made in the same Tory Manifesto of 2015 regards support for the single market is further proof that Cameron was 100% certain that leave would not get one vote.

Parties promise what they think will keep them in power!

Labour promised in their 2017 Manifesto to honour the result of the referendum, bit did not. Labour also pledged to scrap student loans, but later admitted it could not have been done. They paid the price for lying in 2019 with their worst general election result in 85 years.

@SerendipityJane So Labour have clearly not ruled out banning marmalade and erasing Paddington from history. Therefore it will be the very first thing they do.

Labour have not ruled out they will scrap student loans. So, based on your logic it will be the second thing they do after marmalade and Paddington have been banned.

Labour promised in their 2017 Manifesto to honour the result of the referendum, bit did not.

Labour didn't win. You have no idea what they would or would not have done if they had won.

I don't know why you are bothering to post the history of the Referendum - you have got your Brexit, courtesy of the Tory Party and the mandate for Brexit has been discharged. I don't know whether what you have got suits you or not, but tough luck. The electorate chose to put Johnson's Government in power in 2019 and at that stage they had to accept what he delivered. Why anyone should trust an known liar to enact their wishes is beyond me, but that is a separate issue.

@Peregrina Labour didn't win. You have no idea what they would or would not have done if they had won.

I suggest you watch the 5 September 2019 episode of BBC Question Time. Fiona Bruce asked Emily Thornberry to clarify Labour's position regards Brexit if Labour won the next general election. Emily's reply was:

As foreign secretary I would campaign to remain, but negotiate a deal with The EU that is best for the UK in terms of jobs and the economy.

Link is

https://www.bing.com/videos/riverview/relatedvideo?&q=emily+thornberry+question+time&qpvt=emily+thornberry+question+time&mid=9F45D68CDCDAA7E0F6129F45D68CDCDAA7E0F612&mmscn=mtsc&aps=14&FORM=VRDGAR

So, voters did know what Labour would have done if they won the 2019 general election. Hence Labour got hammered.

To repeat - Labour did not win, and whatever what was said in Question Time is an irrelevance.

Any student of politics will know that even Manifestos of the successful party become just waste paper.

Some grasping at straws going on there.

So, remain supporters are confident that Labour will immediately apply to rejoin the EU on 5 July 2024 and the EU will agree that the last 8 years can be forgotten?

That’s real clutch at straws.

So, remain supporters are confident that Labour will immediately apply to rejoin the EU on 5 July 2024 and the EU will agree that the last 8 years can be forgotten?

God knows where you got that notion from, as no one is remotely suggesting it. Was it a fever dream?

As an aside, I can remember people on these threads (the Westminstenders ones and the subsequent Brexit ones) noting that the most likely outcome of the debacle would be the wholesale destruction of the Conservative Party - and so it has come to pass.

Having just spent the last week working in Germany and not seen the (many) news discussion programmes on French television (and nothing in Germany) I am a bit out of touch with 'news' but can confirm that Germany and Belgium are largely doing their usual stuff (major road rebuilding works and working normally although a bit of strain due to the gas and oil, formerly from Russia has disrupted things somewhat. The Sovereign French are having a bit of a tense time obviously but in general apart from specific areas prone to strikes and disturbance, life continues as normal. Unfortunately the unbderstanding that Leacving the EU does not fix much of sovezreign country issues (countries always retain sovereignty) has not really been discussed in many places. However the disadvantages created by LEAVING is slowly emerging as products from the UK disappear from the shelves (only seen as novelties rather than essentials so not important). Whether the UK even attempts to JOIN the EU is hardly a subject of conversation so the UK simply has to get on and learn to live OUTSIDE the EU, for which thyere is no evidence than the 'fantastic' trade deals have produced anything except misery for the industries involved. Welcome to UK sovereign isolation.

Further, it is very noticeable the sheer number of Polish and Lithuanian trucks on the roads of Europe. There is indeed some 'tension' because the nature of mass haulage has shifted and things are readjusting. There are MANY '3.5 tonne' vans (small lorries) that are 'new' from Poland I heard from one driver that it was a 'plan' when Poland joined the EU that the fleets of trucks should be upgraded from the old dirty 'Russian (Eastern bloc) vehicles as a general improvement to life of ALL, realising that they would be a positive impact so the Polish Government made obtaining new vehicles easier. This kind of subtlety is WAY beyond the tiny Brexit mind of Globetrotter. 2500 km of driving over the last week for me and I saw NO UK plated trucks. 3 'Eddie Stobart' but running under European plates and logos changed to Stobart .EU so obviously sold on.
Many countries used the model of having stuff manufacturted 'cheaply' in China and as tensions with China mount a period of adjustment is underway with manufacturing being brought back to Europe for which the UK is OUT and is not seeing any benefits which it WOULD have done had it not left the EU. Seeing transporters carrying the new Minis (Made in Germany not the UK) brings home the isolation the UK will now see.

I don't suppose you've ever heard of the term - "Straw Man Argument" perchance?

England and Scotland have joined Euro 2024 in Germany, maybe that is causing some confusion 🤔

Labour's got enough to fix in the next 5 years without reopening the Brexit question. The problem is, freedom of movement is still politically toxic in some circles - the rise of Reform has proven that - and the EU won't accept anything less if we rejoin.

I think they will negotiate for closer ties and a reduction in paperwork.

Behind the scenes with "Frosty"

Reform are rather a red herring.
Its a protest vote in safe seats mostly.
ALSO
If Farridge does get elected, he will be limited on airtime under the party allocation rules
snigger

Considering UKIP are still fielding candidates the right are merrily eating themselves
and Ed Davey's "total wipeout" style campaign may cause the opposite result
and change the dynamic rather

Sorry, I've not been paying attention at the back much as I live abroad and haven't been allowed to vote in the UK for about 20 years, although I hope my ballot papers will arrive in time for me to return them to be counted for this GE. Could you kindly explain what you mean about Ed Davey's "total wipeout" style, please, @Talkinpeace? I'm particularly interested as he's standing in the constituency next door to where I cast my vote for the first time, in 1974.

@Jaichangecentfoisdenom
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/ckrrpgme39po

He has fallen off paddle boards, ridden roller coasters, done mudders
all sorts of daft stuff that he freely admits is staged.
It making good coverage and letting his candidates focus on their hit list of seats

Thank you, @Talkinpeace - so you think the LD campaign style may make a positive difference for them?

I think they key thing is that the meeja can cover Ed's latest stunt
free in the knowledge that he will not be in government
and its a "happy" political news story
and in the background his party look to do real damage to the blue seats

some of their candidates are barking
but that applies to all the parties

"some of their candidates are barking
but that applies to all the parties"

What does it say about me that I really miss Charles Kennedy's leadership?

Charles Kennedy was before they took ££££ from the makers of puberty blockers
and lost their minds about the welfare of women and girls and the disabled
(see Aimee Challenor for the darkest hour)

Ed is OK, but many of their activists and candidates are not of the real world

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/will-britain-rejoin-eu-reverse-brexit-youth-vote-support-377485/