Brexit mega thread part 13: All eyes on Ireland

[SerendipityJane]

With the Windsor framework up & running, and the DUP having a "you could set your calendar by it" hissy fit, but Irish unification refusing to keep it's head down, what next in the long running sage of UK vs. the real world ?

The Globe 'word salad' strikes again with more irrelevant twaddle.
Why would I give a damn about any Leave voter?
The USA has problems because it took farming production to ridiculously intense levels and has been poisoning vast areas of countryside using 'salt' water drawn from aquifers and areas of California are sinking because the aquifers there have been depleted. Germany using vast quntities of natural resopurces to power WW1 and WW2 was a mistake obviously. But then England cut down it's forests to build ships that were then lost in battle in previous centuries without the foresight to replace the woodlands. The USA executes more prisoners than the UK or Europe so not necessarily the utopia it makes out to be.

Thanks TIP IF I got one now it would be nearly full grown by the time the Brexit benefits kicj in according to the wild optimist J R Mogg, who, statistically will not be around by then. On the other hand if I wanted to see one I could pop down to Portugal on holiday perhaps.

@IItisymoi is my personal opinion that the EU could and possibly should NOW enforce the terms of the Withdrawal agreement and TCA To the letter which will FEEL like punishment to the Leave voters because they simply didn't understanfd whad Leaving really means in practice.

How will the EU gain by such action?

The Italian lorry was not carrying poisonous plants

I suggest you look at:

Prunus lusitanica is a member of the genus Prunus, which contains amygdalin and prunasin, substances that break down in water to form hydrocyanic acid (cyanide or prussic acid)1. All members of the genus are poisonous, and the stems, leaves, and seeds of Prunus lusitanica contain cyanide, which is particularly toxic in the process of wilting2. Symptoms of poisoning include brick red mucous membranes, dilated pupils, difficulty breathing, panting, and shock

UK government still haven't a clue what Leaving the EU actually means or at least has not put resources into dealing with things that were known by the UK civil Service beforehand.

When any country exports to another, it is the exporter's duty to be familiar with regulatory requirements at the other end.

When any country exports to another, it is the exporter's duty to be familiar with regulatory requirements at the other end.
Now you are just being insulting. The Lorry driver had the paperwork which detailed what was in the cargo BUT the UK customs and inspection were not intelligent or polite enough to find it the status and import requirement of the cargo. ENTIRELY down to the UK customs inspection services that after 8 years are still not properly organised and funded.
The EU would gain some revenue by fully enforcing the WA and TCA agreement because it will PUSH EU companies to look at the world market for which customs checks and controls are already fully organised? Unlike the UK which is still not up to speed and with the current showing is going backwards rapidly.
Don't forget that the UK Civil Service has been defunded by the Tories such that everything is getting delayed while the Tories squabble between themselves. The fancy trade agreements simply haven't been negotiated yet and the DISADVANTAGES of the Australian and Japanese 'deals' have not produced world beating benefits to the UK public, as was PROMISED by Johnson and others.

When I worked in Dover Docks Customs Clearance we had expert staff inside the dock gates with well thumbed paper copies of the tariff.
Pre 1988 we could clear a 150 part groupage of flowers from the Netherlands or shrubs from Italy in about 6 hours

We always offered demurraged drivers free tea or coffee
(but not the KGB minders of the Eastern Block ones)

The current scheme is an entirely predictable shambles
entirely of the Tory party's making

Globe: I suggest you look at:

Well I suggest you look at getting a life as I am too busy with mine to answer your tedious and irrelevent questions, while obviously you are not helping fellow beings near you.
I gor 'banned' by MNHQ in the past because I named the solicitor in the UK who made me suicidal but hey, suicide is painless as the MASH theme tune would have you believe.

What is the reaction to Macron calling a snap election @IItisymoi ?

Well he didn't do it in a biblical deluge without an umbrella with an unofficial cheesy 90s backing, so pretty poor show, really.

@IItisymoi ENTIRELY down to the UK customs inspection services that after 8 years are still not properly organised and funded.

The new rules came into force 30 April 2024. So where does the 8 years come from?

The EU would gain some revenue by fully enforcing the WA and TCA

Is there a link to substantiate that statement?

@Talkinpeace We always offered demurraged drivers free tea or coffee

So, no food in those days either?

Also, for information I refer remain supporters to the following:

General election 2024 poll tracker: How do the parties compare? (bbc.com)

The poll suggests that 87% of the vote will go to parties who do not support rejoining the EU:

Labour 44%
Conservative 23%
Reform 14%
Green 6%

In anticipation of a reply "Green party wants to the UK to rejoin the EU", I would refer to the Question Time episode broadcast 6 June 2024. The Green party representative stated that Green would not campaign to rejoin the EU. Likewise the Labour representative confirmed that Labour would not campaign to rejoin the EU

I am not convinced that polls are reliable, but remain supporters seem to think polls are infallible and prove that the UK population is now against Brexit. That so, how do remain supporters explain the following trend:

2016 EU Referendum

52% of UK voters chose to leave the EU

2017 General Election

82% of UK voters selected Conservatives and Labour. Both of whom pledged to honour to 2016 referendum result.

2019 General Election

Conservatives won with a majority.
Labour got their worst results in 85 years.
LibDems, who pledged to cancel Brexit won, won fewer seats than in the 2017 general election.

For me, the trend is clear. Support for the UK to rejoin the EU is dwindling.

I THINK it is a calculated gamble and things will be pretty interesting for a while but of course these were elections for MEPs and NOT MPs so the difference needs to be hammered out. Mrs Von der Leyen's response was very good, pointing out that the moderate 'centre' ground has increased slightly, indicating some stability in the EU and the largest changes were at BOTH extremes and yopu have to consider that the more extreme parties are less likely to cooperate with those of other countries so they do not represent a real Europewide 'force'.
Of course there will be a lot of flag waving and probably protests but that is quite normal. Mr Macron is not universally likes as he is a bit of a 'city boy' but he at least understands how France needs to be a strong 'power' within Europe and work WITH others to keep things as stable as possible. When you shine a strong light on the extreme parties you discover there is very little substance, rather like the Tory (lack of plan) Brexit. In the run up to this last Vote Mr Attal (Prime Minister) pretty much dismantled Bardella''s (opposition RN party) ranting by being logical and well informed. France and other countries NEED to resolve issues like the terrible flooding over the last winter which of course requires cross border cooperation as well ans serious civil engineering work AND a lot of repairs to damaged houses and industry. My house in the UK suffered flooding once and it took a year to be back to 'normal' so the TV news of flooded houses had real meaning for me and I feel so sorry for them. At least my French house is over 4 metres higher than the little stream that runs past my garden so no real chance of such innondation for me.

@IItisymoiENTIRELY down to the UK customs inspection services that after 8 years are still not properly organised and funded.

The new rules came into force 30 April 2024. So where does the 8 years come from?

You really are MOST TEDIOUS Globe.
I say 8 years because problems like this were discussed as being necessary on this MN forum BEFORE the Vote so you cannot now bleat on about NOT knowing as after all Brexit meant Brexit which automatically changes all former agreements. YOU voted to leave take responsibility for your stupid decision.

@IItisymoi rather like the Tory (lack of plan) Brexit.

Correction required.

The offer of a referendum regards EU membership was made by David Cameron. Yes, he was the Conservative, but at the same time he advocated that the UK should remain in the EU.

Contrary to what many think, leave and remain was not a clear split between Conservatives and Labour with Conservatives being 100% leave and Labour 100% remain.

So, it was a remain advocate that offered the referendum without a plan to cater for a leave vote. Ultra confident that the vote would be 100% remain. Possibly due to polls between 2013 and 2016 suggesting that the vote would be to remain.

That Cameron walked away and never held to account was abysmal. Worse still he is back!

I know what you mean about flooding. I have relatives who live in York that have been affected several times.

Also the ground floor of the block I used to live in Edinburgh was flooded by the nearby river of Leith. Insurance companies refused to pay up. Thankfully for the residents, the Edinburgh City Council built a flood wall to prevent further floods.

The Tories were in Government, hence they needed to be the ones to implement the plan for Brexit.

A better more competent Government would have sought a cross party consensus.

The referendum itself was not run to 'normal' standards(48/52 being within usual margin of error so should have been disallowed) and the influence from Russian funbds has not been investigated but there is Globe STILL expecti,ng other people to do ALL the work now that the UK has 'won' all these super freedoms but most are still sitting on their backsides waiting for OTHERS to do the work:

The Tories were in Government, hence they needed to be the ones to implement the plan for Brexit.
Yes of course.The Tories have 'form ' for having the Civil Service actually doing their jobs but then the Government IGNORES the recommendations so leading to the disasters such as Covid preparation and so many aspects surrounding Brexit that the Tories have been ignoring, like the requirement for border checks that were not necessary as an EU member.

Donation is time again

This is getting expensive

(Extraneous "is" )

@IItisymoi YOU voted to leave take responsibility for your stupid decision.

As always, 16.1 million remain supporters forget the events which followed the 2016 referendum which were:

27 June 2016

David Cameron rules out a second referendum and states the next prime minister should trigger Article 50. The link is:

United Kingdom invocation of Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union - Wikipedia

24 Jan 2017

UK courts ruled that the process of leaving the EU had to be approved by an act of parliament, ie the UKs law makers known as MPs. Same link as above

29 March 2017

498 MPs (81%) voted to trigger Article 50. Notable names included Jeremy Corbyn of Labour.

114 MPs (19%) voted against Article 50. Notable names include Liam Fox of Conservatives who was later tasked with negotiating trade deals. Over 40 Labour MPs voted against even though their 2017 Manifesto said they would honour the result of the referendum.

If, as advocated by remain supporters, Brexit was certain to destroy the United Kingdom and MPs are obliged to act in the national interest regardless of people voted, why was Article 50 not rejected by all MPs?

12 December 2019

The Liberal Democrat's for the General Election was that Article 50 would be revoked if they were elected. Had the same number of people who voted remain in 2016, 16.1 million, the Liberal Democrats would have been elected and Brexit would not have happened.

Why remain supporters did not vote for the Liberal Democrats can only be explained by the remain supporters.

<More irrelevant waffle and drivel that nobody will read because it is irrelevant waffle and drivel>

If, as advocated by remain supporters, Brexit was certain to destroy the United Kingdom and MPs are obliged to act in the national interest regardless of people voted, why was Article 50 not rejected by all MPs?

Largely because hardly any MPs bothered to read and put effort into understanding the possible (now likely) ramifications of such a massively damaging idea such as leaving the thousands of pieces of legislation that have been worked on continulously for over 40 years. The 508 pages were just the SUMMARY and not the legal detail that backed it up. The effects of dropping some legislation also impacts many other pieces which is way beyond what would be practical even if given years to read and digest it. The 'deadline' for reading and approving were deliberately made very short because the Government knew there would be a LOT of opposition if it was examined in detail. Hell 'my' MP was only fit for opening the newly refurbished bus station and the odd school fete. She wasn't corrupt, just pretty useless.
They also set aside the constitutional problems in dealing with Northern Ireland where they KNEW there would be problems (and why) but they chose en mass to pass Article 50 thus a dereliction of duty.

@IItisymoi - mind you, this latest from Eric Ciotti doesn't bode well for anyone but the far right.. https://www.thetimes.com/world/europe/article/france-election-polls-macron-jordan-bardella-marine-le-pen-25ltk7m8q
"French politics moved towards a historic shift on Tuesday as the head of the centre-right Republicans backed the populist National Rally in its attempt to form the next government.
National Rally, some of whose roots can be traced to the regime that collaborated with Hitler during the Second World War, has long been blacklisted by mainstream French parties.
However, Éric Ciotti, the Republicans’ leader, said he would support Jordan Bardella, the rally’s 28-year-old chairman, in his campaign to become France’s first hard-right prime minister since 1944."

YouGov Poll 12/6/24

@Peregrina The Tories were in Government, hence they needed to be the ones to implement the plan for Brexit.

More corrections required.

As per the Miller case and ruling passed in January 2017, leaving the EU had to be done by an act of parliament. The Tories alone could not trigger Article 50.

A vote held on 29 March 2017 and 498 MPs voted to trigger article 50. 114 MPs voted against. The link is:

Article 50 Brexit vote: Full list of MPs who backed Theresa May starting official EU negotiations - and those who voted against | The Independent | The Independent

So, it would be logical for the 498 MPs who supported Brexit to have formed a plan.

@IItisymoi The referendum itself was not run to 'normal' standards(48/52 being within usual margin of error so should have been disallowed)

The referendum held 23 June 2016 was done in accordance with the EU referendum act passed in 2015. Link is:

newbook.book (parliament.uk)

Opinion polls make reference to margins or error as they are based on small samples, but actual votes have no margin of error as they are physically measured.

@IItisymoi They also set aside the constitutional problems in dealing with Northern Ireland where they KNEW there would be problems (and why) but they chose en mass to pass Article 50 thus a dereliction of duty.

Been down this road before, but to reiterate:

EU Article 50 is governed by EU law as opposed to international law. The link is:

https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2016/577971/EPRS_BRI(2016)577971_EN.pdf

The relevant wording is:

Relevant international-law provisions cannot be applied in parallel to Article 50 TEU. Rather, the procedure and consequences of a withdrawal from the EU are now governed by EU law and no recourse to international law is possible.

The Miller case established the UK's constitutional requirement that an act of Parliament was required to leave the EU.

@DuncinToffee

If the poll you have referenced is accurate, why are Labour and Conservative (neither of whom are campaigning to rejoin the EU) are forecast to win 422 and 140 seat respectively, 86% of the total?

72 hours in French politics

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1801114239572328663.html?utm_campaign=topunroll