Brexit mega thread part 11: is fucktastrophy a word?

[mirages08]

Part 11 of this mega thread

Couldn't see a new one?

Hope you don't mind a newbie starting it!

Which of course will drive prices even higher. Already supermarkets are running a very tight margin and that is in buildings and spaces that were acquired when all the shelves were meant to be filled.

There's only so far you can get by packing the gaps with more of the same.

I notice my supermarket of choice has been running at about 90% capacity on average since we came out of lockdown. If we assume a linear correlation (which there won't be) then that's an ongoing 10% loss.

Eventually, if this persists (and we know it will) it will feed into commercial decisions about rents, leases, break clauses and the use of retail space in general. None of which is great news for the high street so beloved of some.

A tightening of choice is also going to take a fair few niche and specialist outfits down with it. Not that there was a great number to start with outside the M25.

UK government either has to throw food standards, public health, and the British cattle industry under the bus, or the British cheese industry, or hope the temporary agreement can be extended to kick the decision down the road.

So of course, our present Government will jump at the opportunity to throw our cattle industry under the bus, especially if they can squeeze it past us when we are not looking.

And Brexiters assured us that leaving the EU would allow us to raise standards!

Did they ?

That lamp had it's gas turned down years ago,

As someone with close family very affected by medication shortages I am extremely relieved to hear there will be some renegotiation of the Brexit agreement next year. Jesus Christ. Thank god.
Also it’s got to be a toxic issue for the Tories no? They know Brexit failed and nobody’s happy. They can’t keep posturing for a harder and harder Brexit any more and will have to actually try to find something constructive. And Labour can’t sell the people out any more by going along with it. So eternally disgusted with both of the major parties over Brexit tbh. Not good for my blood pressure at this time in the morning to think about it ..

I'm afraid that Leavers will never admit to any failings of Brexit. It's their religion.

So The Retained EU Law (Revocation and Reform) Bill comes into effect in January 2024.

But before then there will be a statutory instrument laid to retain some aspects of employment law derived from EU law.
https://news.sky.com/story/eu-equality-laws-to-be-reinstated-to-avoid-gap-in-protections-for-workers-13002094

I know what you mean about Brexiteers not tolerating any criticism, but the way it’s playing out that I see is brexiteers just not wanting to mention it and kind of pretending it’s a difficult thing that happened in 2016 and is now closed.

Whereas it is actually a total disaster that’s adding to the terrible economic and social strain on the country every day right now.. it’s not some kind of inevitable fact of life we can’t do anything about.

I don’t know how Tories can campaign on all this any time soon because life in the UK (unless you’re super rich and don’t ever use any public services) is objectively so much harder and poorer even than in 2016 and it’s all completely on their watch. They’re done as a government, surely.

Also not to derail because maybe it has its own thread, but the disgusting revelations from tbe Covid Inquiry are so shocking.

Actually I think brexit is still a vote winner. I hardly know anyone who voted leave and has changed their mind about brexit. Any problems caused are because we didn't do brexit hard enough and are all other people's fault.

The Tory vote is firmly in the "believes things that aren't true" demographic on any Venn diagram, and so are people who still support Brexit.

Wanting another five years of the Tories and wanting Brexit to continue don't really have logical, objective, "in touch with reality" rationales at this point do they?

These "believes things that aren't true" demographics are the only demographics the Tories have left.

Labour doesn't dare try to reverse Brexit.

Its mantra is "Make Brexit Work".

Keir Starmer has stressed that he accepts Brexit and repeatedly ruled out reversing the 2016 referendum outcome or attempting to rejoin the EU's customs union or single market.

Absolutely I hope we’ll somehow rejoin the EU within ten years but for now I just hope whoever is in government in UK in 2024 renegotiates the shit out of the current agreement, because what we have now is a total bust.

How can any government negotiate an agreement that will "make Brexit work"?

Look at medicines. Brexit is one element which is contributing to shortages.

Within that, regulatory divergence between the UK and the EU is one problem - that could possibly be eased by regulatory realignment.

But the other, major factor, is the extra costs because of customs declarations and other paperwork, and the extra time that takes. Outside a customs union, that cannot be fixed.

Um, there is no renegotiation of Brexit on the cards, there is a review to ensure the treaty is being implemented properly and to iron out issues with this implementation. People are being misled if they think this is an opportunity to renegotiate better conditions for the UK. From an EU perspective, there is no reason to spend much more time on the issue, unless of course the UK wants to rejoin the single market, accept the 4 freedoms or commit wholeheartedly to alignment.

What's the incentive for the EU to renegotiate?

Maroš Šefčovič, the vice-president of the European Commission who oversees UK relations, has said that the TCA had not been used to its “full potential” but warned that the review “does not constitute a commitment to reopen the TCA or to renegotiate the supplementary agreements”. Another EU official was adamant that the process is “a review, not a revision, not a renewal or even amendment of any sort”. The EU has a clear position on what to expect from the review: not very much

Somewhere a Brexiteer is dying ...

https://news.sky.com/story/eu-equality-laws-to-be-reinstated-to-avoid-gap-in-protections-for-workers-13002094

Not sure I said quite that. I'm pretty convinced I'd not vote for rejoin in any future vote. The outcomes I want to see for society in the UK are possible having left, they wouldn't be possible if we were still EU members now and won't be possible if we rejoin in future.

Again the assertion is made that I'm not a democrat? One simple sententece, 'what they country votes for, it should get', proves otherwise.It appears very likely that we'll have a change of government in the UK withn the next year or so. I hope Brexit is secure and will survive such a change, I suspect it isn't and in reality it won't. Lets see.

Are there any limits to that 'what the country votes for it should get'?

Country voted 52/48 - which by any measure is "to be a little bit out"

What we got was a 'little bit' short of the hardest possible brexit and an unseemly haste to invoke article 50 giving removing virtually all of our negotiating 'power'

By all means give me an example, if you've some specific horror in mind, but for me, no, no limits.

"Unseemely haste" is an interesting description of a Brexit process that took from June 2016 until the final end of the Transition period at 00:01 01/01/2021. A period following which, even at the end of 2023, we've still yet to see meaningful divergence in many areas.

The problem with meaningful divergence is that it inevitably means lowering standards and closing off swathes of markets to UK manufacturers, thus hitting the economy. Not a vote winner for a government already in dire straits.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/nov/08/brexit-has-hit-uks-economic-openness-says-bank-of-england-governor

QED...

The problem is that the zealots tell us that we must diverge for good things to happen.

But all that happens is that we sell out our farmers - see the Australia deal - or some other part of our industry.

It's just another misunderstood mantra, like "take back control", which is meaningless (indeed, we have far less control than we used to), just spouted by the ignorant to make them think they have some opinion other than racism...

I don't agree that divergence inevitably means lowering standards though I appreciate that the vast majority of the evidence where it has ocurred so far points to this being the outcome.

I do agree 100% that anything that causes economic damage is an absolute non-starter for a govermenment in the position of the current one. Consequently I think there is virtually no chance of further change before a GE and a likely change of government in any event.

The outcomes I want to see for society in the UK are possible having left, they wouldn't be possible if we were still EU members now and won't be possible if we rejoin in future.

So often though, the excuse of "The EU won't allow us to do this" was a convenient load of hogwash. There was nothing stopping us having blue passports, nothing stopping us finding £350 million a week for the NHS - it was a political choice not to. Just two examples, one trivial, one not.

On the other hand some of the things the EU stopped us doing were a bl**dy good thing - who really wants all our rivers and seas to be polluted with sewage? Why did we need to EU to force us to raise standards in that matter?

Some of the legislation the EU proposed was sponsored by the UK initially - but Brexiters wanted to scrap the lot, which was pretty stupid.

I don't agree that divergence inevitably means lowering standards though I appreciate that the vast majority of the evidence where it has ocurred so far points to this being the outcome.

It should not be but in practice it has been. Some EU standards were a minimum. For example, and any one please correct me if I am wrong, there would have been nothing to stop us exporting live animals. The French weren't standing over us making us export them.