Brexit mega thread part 11: is fucktastrophy a word?

[mirages08]

Part 11 of this mega thread

Couldn't see a new one?

Hope you don't mind a newbie starting it!

It is an interesting article. As it points out, both Sunak and Starmer, and even Truss's, less hostile approach to the EU has been welcome. At least this gives a better foundation on which to build a new relationship. Horizon membership was on offer as were better terms for musicians but the Brexiteers stamped their feet in a paddy and said No.

It all gives me a feeling of deja vu though. The UK could have been in on what then became the EEC right at the beginning, in the early 1951. But, IMO, Churchill's vision then, although he promoted the idea of a more United Europe still saw the UK as being firmly focused on the Commonwealth, so more of a detached observer. There was also the emphasis on the 'Special Relationship' with the USA. Suez ought to have disabused them of it being any sort of equal partnership but it didn't. The UK gradually realised its mistake and the mood shifted and we ended up joining the EEC. And then for most of us, the EEC, later the EU began to be less and less of an issue.

I think now, we will have a period like post Suez where we realise that the world has changed and we have deliberately chosen to jump ship (rather than missing the boat) and will spend another decade waking up to this, and then probably another decade trying to get back into what the EU has then become. It will need this generation of Brexiteers to be history too, which also fits with a 20 year time scale.

A little tangental to this:
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/sep/19/clacton-on-sea-coastal-town-voted-brexit The Guardian two day's ago had an article about Clacton and how it was left behind. A couple of Brexiters are featured in the picture. Others are quoted (not necessarily Brexiters). They are all getting on in years. Why do the parties not realise that the young people are the future, instead of pandering to these and Red Wall voters? What's the use of talking about Freedom of Movement some say - the average Red Wall person won't want or be in a position to take advantage of it. True for the 50 plus age group, but for the 20s and 30s age groups - those who have grown up with being able to get a cheap flight to anywhere in Europe? It's just not such a foreign place as it was to older generations.

Going back to Katya Adler's article - Cameron rejected this idea of different levels of EU membership as I recall, because he wanted to be 'At the top table'. That turned out well!

Sorry, a bit of a stream of consciousness there.

Yeah

Probably not in my lifetime, but it'll happen

The lessons of history, eh? 😔🤬

I'll repeat again: this "news" has nothing to do with what can or will happen. It's merely about positioning on the battlefield and trying to lure your enemy into a mistake. The actualite is irrelevant. In much the same way the deep philosophical arguments over transubstantiation plays very little part in what happens at an Old Firm game.

However, the good news is the Tories are in a vice or dilemma of their own making. They more than any other party have to square the circle of being the "Brexit party" in a society where Brexit is either anathema or (even worse) irrelevant to more and more voters. It's like being the canal party in the age of steam.

Unfortunately Labour are also a canal party. Their slogan is "Make Brexit Work".

Good luck with that.

No Brexit can't be made to work. But it might be said that if Starmer goes into an election with that as a slogan, it steals a useful slogan from the Tories. They could have said - "We delivered Brexit, we are now making it work". But they can't

There's always the hope for Labour that voters are too stupid to realise that Brexit can't be made to work.

And at the GE after that, Labour can always say "Well, the Tories didn't make it work either", so they do have that.

Now you're getting it 😀

The trap is that the Tories will need to simultaneously claim that "Brexit is working" (after all, it's all they have at this point) and "Brexit is broken, and we need to fix it" to make their campaign work. Luckily we know the BBC will happily swallow that, but it will mean they will basically be on high alert until the polls close. Whenever that is.

And it's only the public that think about Brexit that need to be reached. A fucktonne of people have really forgotten all about it, since Boris promised to "Get Brexit Done". Or, to put it another way, it ain't what the streets are buzzing with. Not where I work, ;leastways, where the comment of the year was that the Tories are the sort of party your Dad would vote for.

Ouch.

There's always the hope for Labour that voters are too stupid to realise that Brexit can't be made to work.

I suspect that as a whole, the voting electorate are a microcosm of real life. So about 50% will be of less than average intelligence*.

It's tempting to characterise non voters as slightly more dim. However I've known a few people who won't/don't vote who are fairly bright.

I'd still love to know if that 30% rump of non-voters are the same every election, or if there's a bit of ebb'n'flow depending on specifics.

I love that fact*. It's a great way to wind people up early on in a discussion to see how good their reasoning skills (or statistics) are.

I always go with "You know how thick the average man in the street is? Well, half the population are thicker than that!"

Of course there are nuances in the facts. And if you can't get them,. you are probably in the "under" category 🙂

Actually it's the arrogance that gets me. Armchair experts with nothing more than a GCSE in woodwork confidently asserting that Pascal Lamy and Mark Carney are wrong about how World trade works are they (or Nigel Farage and the Daily Mail) are right.

My pils (true blue tory voters, loved thatcher etc) aren't voting next time apparently

Oh well, at least Brexshit supporters are getting everything they campaigned for...

Shame...

instead of pandering to these and Red Wall voters?

The problem is, demographically, the over-60s are a top-heavy group, do vote and a lot of them were Brexit supporters. So, Starmer probably feels he has to placate them.

Having said that, they are also reliant on the NHS more then me and my children. The next election won't be about Brexit. It will be about public services and the shitshow of no doctors or ambulances.

I know that people hate to admit being wrong (I’ll include myself in that) but you’d have to never read a newspaper not to finally agree that Brexit was monumentally the wrong decision. I wonder what those 100’s of posters in the Brexit Arms think about it now and if they are still thrilled with their dream being fulfilled.

*@SerendipityJane When I’d rail against some craziness, my dear departed BiL used to say that I needed to remember that 90% of people were idiots, but he was a cynical depressive sort.

Apparently nobody cares.

(Well, according to Ed Davey of the Lib Dems.)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66878234

I know that people hate to admit being wrong (I’ll include myself in that) but you’d have to never read a newspaper not to finally agree that Brexit was monumentally the wrong decision. I wonder what those 100’s of posters in the Brexit Arms think about it now and if they are still thrilled with their dream being fulfilled.

It's a subtle process. However (and this may be where Labour have paid the big bucks ?) the every first step isn't simply a 180-degree "I was wrong". There are stages. And somewhere on that journey is the stage of "I wasn't wrong, but it was done badly". Which is half-true. And that's where the Tories need to get the blame

I take that article with a large pinch of salt. I think he's right though for the short term - nobody cared much about the EU prior to 2016 and most people have gone back to that. In the short term the real Brexiters have to been seen off, and then real conversations about the way forward can start.

I don't think the Brexiters have been seen off at all, or Labour wouldn't be so adamant that the UK won't be going into the Single Market or a customs union and that there won't be more alignment with the EU.

Take this, from BBC News yesterday:

"Labour has tried to clarify its intended post-Brexit relationship with the EU, after comments from Sir Keir Starmer at a conference.
A video has emerged of the Labour leader saying the party doesn't want to "diverge" from the bloc's regulations.
Cabinet minister Michael Gove said the remarks showed Labour would "compromise" potential Brexit benefits.
But Labour suggested his remarks were limited to the areas of food, environmental and labour standards.
A spokesperson added it did not support the process, known as dynamic alignment, under which the UK would pledge to maintain similar laws to the EU in a number of areas."

Yes, all true. I don't know about others but I read Jonty (Bloom's ) jottings each day. He says this today:

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If you are one of those people in despair that Labour will not commit to rejoining the EU or even to joining the single market, you now know why.

Just one trip to Paris at which Sir Keir Starmer suggested that keeping our standards in step with the EU was a sensible policy and the newspapers are screaming Brexit betrayal.

The fact that the government has already done just this by abolishing plans for a British alternative to the CE mark, is never mentioned. With that one u-turn much of the supposed rationale for Brexit was destroyed, did you hear a peep about that?

No I thought not.

Labour has to keep its powder dry, get into power and then try to be nice to the neighbours, even that will be met with howls of outrage but it is the only way forward, but first Labour has to get into power.

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I don't think Leave voters will ever change their minds about Brexit, it's a cult and they're too invested. I think we just have to wait for them to die off. And I hope nobody come along to twist my words to say I'm wishing people dead.

I don't think Leave voters will ever change their minds about Brexit, it's a cult and they're too invested. I think we just have to wait for them to die off. And I hope nobody come along to twist my words to say I'm wishing people dead.

They just need to be persuaded that something else is the cause of all their woes.

Remember saying something similar before the referendum. Given another 15-20 years, then the numbers in support of and against would be vastly different.

An encouraging observation from my own life, though: my Brexit-obsessed EU-hating Express-reading step-father would vote Tory again over his dead body. He won’t go back to a Blair-style Labour but he definitely won’t be voting Tory.

Here we go. this is exactly why all the Brexshitteers voted for Brexshit! To keep EU standards.

Funny how the government didn't make a big song and dance about this announcement...