Brexit Megathread - Part 2 because it's not over by a long shot

[vera99]

Well getting to a 1000 posts didn't take too long so here we are.... everybody welcome!

I remember at the time, the murmurings that Boris's miraculous deal was actually Theresa May's deal, plus the NI Protocol that the EU wanted but she would not accept

Did she vote for it, out if interest ?

@DGRossetti

I remember at the time, the murmurings that Boris's miraculous deal was actually Theresa May's deal, plus the NI Protocol that the EU wanted but she would not accept

Did she vote for it, out if interest ?

It was 521:73, and most voted for because it was either that or no deal - the vote was held at the latest it could and there was insufficient time for proper scrutiny - don't you remember? I would imagine any Conservative that didn't vote for it would have had the whip removed. She must have done - but through gritted teeth, I should think!

@Peregrina

How do we hold them to account though? Normal rules don't apply these days.

By fact-checking and a bloody good memory, and threads like this for a start! There's plenty of scrutiny going on - select committees are interesting.

Problem is, what will happen at the next GE :(

By fact-checking and a bloody good memory, and threads like this for a start!

But sadly, we are mostly preaching to the converted.
An item came up on my phone and has now disappeared, so I can't link, about the UK trialling digital driving licences, by 2024 I believe. With the usual balderdash about now we are out of the EU we can do this, the EU doesn't allow it. But Finland (an EU country) has been trialling them since 2019, although people still have paper ones. Iceland -EEA- has introduced them. So yet again we are being told porkies. But sadly most people will take these statements at face value.

I honestly think the EU are getting to the end of their rope with us, and I am beginning to hope they are.

Watching some of the Frost's speech, it was beyond embarrassing, I am ashamed at such blatant rudeness, and this behavior will not be forgotten.

Brexit and his crew of twats are in for a shock I think. The EU holds all the cards in any trade war, and their bluster will soon fall apart if there are targeted sanctions, Eg against cars. I think that would be preferable to tihs ongoing horror show, it is unbearable.

There's none so blind as those that don't see.

People won't vote Johnson out for his arrogance, mendacity or shenanigans over Brexit. Those are mere details. They will vote him out if they visibly see their living standards go down and think it's due to his stewardship.

We are particularly crippled by the SNP's stranglehold on Scotland and our FPTP system, so I am not expecting the Tories to go anywhere, anytime soon.

I really wish there was a decent opposition.

How many times do I have to repeat that it is a trope that the SNP's hold of Scotland is what is resulting in Conservative governments.

I even now keep the following in the Notes of my phone (I've posted it in February in response to a post about electoral reform )

"I'm hoping that before they go we get electoral reform at Westminster first. To avoid a permanent Tory majority here in England."

While I agree with the sentiment that the SNP would be helpful in pushing through electoral reform in Westminster (to their credit, even though it would reduce the number of Scottish SNP MPs ) how many times do I have to explain that the UK gets the colour of government that England votes for?

Look at 2015: 56 SNP MPs, one solitary Scottish Conservative MP. Conservative majority.

Or 1997: Blair won with 418 seats. Even without the 56 Scottish Labour MPs, he'd still have had a majority (330 required).

Ironically, one of the few times Scotland has made a difference was in 2017, where the 13 Scottish Conservative MPs made the difference between May being able to form a minority Conservative Government with the support of the DUP. If she'd not had them, she'd not have been able to

It's a commonly held fallacy that Labour "needs" Scotland in order to form a government. It doesn't.

Thanks, @prettybird.

I stand corrected and you have given me hope.
Although I lack the imagination to see the same kind of landslide under Stamner as Blair had....

...but then, I did not think 52% of our population would vote for something as harmful as Brexit, either.

A thread by David Henig unpacking Frost's speech

twitter.com/davidheniguk/status/1447985565123715077?s=21

Unfortunately, Labour does need Middle England (metaphorically) in order to win

... but there again, I thought despairingly in 1992 that Middle England would never lose its blinkers and my parents told me not to lose hope They were right, I was wrong

Brexit and his crew of twats are in for a shock I think. The EU holds all the cards in any trade war, and their bluster will soon fall apart if there are targeted sanctions, Eg against cars. I think that would be preferable to tihs ongoing horror show, it is unbearable.

And cue the Leavers SCREAMING about EU BULLYING us. Egged on by people like Frost, Rees-Mogg etc., Torygraph and Mail. So they would still happily vote Tory and England will be stuck with a Tory Government. But I think if this were to happen it would push Scotland over the edge into Independence. In which case I am now tempted to say Bring it On.

I also believe that the EU including Ireland have more friends than the UK has. We haven't seen the world running in to do deals.

Yes Peregrina, but horrible EU bullies is always going to be the mantra.

I honestly found the Frost speech shocking, so disrespectful and gratuitously rude. We are so lost.

Loathe as I am to say it, I would rather the end game of real econonic harm now and for the EU to show where the power is here

Anybody with 2 brain cells will see that we can't be "Rule Britannia, exceptionalist, world beaters, who do what we like and screw you" and be victims of EU bullying. Except to the die hard brexit loonies who are beyond hope anyway.

I'm holding out for Gina Miller's new party!

www.google.com/amp/s/www.cityam.com/gina-miller-launches-new-true-fair-political-party/amp/

They will vote him out if they visibly see their living standards go down and think it's due to his stewardship.

It's the last part of the sentence that is the key. As long as he can blame someone else, and the public buy it, they will vote for him. Hence we had the spectacle this morning on the Today Prog of Baker desperately trying to drag Starmer in for the Covid debacle. I am not sure whether the public buy that. Certainly those who have lost relatives and heard them going on about vaccines, were not satisfied - the vaccine doesn't bring anyone who died prematurely back.

prettybird, DGR and others - we have to keep hoping and working for what we believe. As we said on I think the previous thread - we never thought we would see the end of Apartheid in South Africa, we never thought we could have had 20 years of peace in N Ireland, I personally thought that the map of E and W Europe was drawn for all time but in 1989 it all started to collapse. So we will see.

Loathe as I am to say it, I would rather the end game of real econonic harm now and for the EU to show where the power is here

I tend to agree. My DCs are out of the country, my grand DCs are entitled to Irish passports, so they should be OK. DH and I are getting on, although we would both like to live for another 20 years, but we recognise that our best years are behind us.

Sorry might have been Barclay on the Today prog. My excuse is that these are all Tory clones.

Dominic Cummings really isn't a happy bunny, is he :
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-covid-report-cummings-b1936802.html

@DuncinToffee

The Care sector has been hit extremely hard by covid and brexit, I wonder how leavers would like solve their worker shortages.

Great question. The care sector has indeed been hit very hard. In the first instance, pay people more.

BTW when I say "pay people more" I mean A LOT more. Flippant I know but if our society made being a care worker as financially rewarding as being a City stock broker, I'm prepared to bet lots of people would want to do it.

In the short term where do we get the workers from? A sector specific wage structure to pull people in from other sectors? Civil national service in the sector for people in a certain age bracket?

One of my relatives is in a care home at a current cost to them of around £750 p/w which they meet in full. The idea that from that amount of money per resident a home cannot adequately remunerate their staff seems absurd to me.

Where this falls down is the Local Authority sector. While self funding residents can be a viable business, at the moment they are subsidising LA funded places massively.

LAs can levy the full 2% Social Care Precept. Data I've seen says 144 councils out of 152 able to did this in 2017. They could also bust through the 5% max uplift and hold the damn referendum on it like they have been allowed to for years. If people want a care system that works everyone has to pay for it.

"Flippant" doesn't begin to describe it.

"Let's pay everyone more" is hardly a workable economic policy. And it is certainly not something the EU was preventing us from doing anyway.

This paucity of joined up thought is what got us into this shitmageddon in the first place.

The gift the current Government is giving to posterity is to make even very callous, incompetent and corrupt future Governments look caring, competent and honest.
It’s not been just “fuck business”, it’s been “fuck everyone”.

"fuck everyone" except Johnson and a handful of chums.

I doubt whether paying care workers the same rates as bankers would lead to an influx of workers for the job. One problem with the Care system is that people don't know much about it, until their relatives become too old to look after themselves but by then it's a bit late to be pro-active.

@LouiseCollins28 That's a laudable idea, however the country's finances are in a bit if a sorry state.
www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicspending/bulletins/ukgovernmentdebtanddeficitforeurostatmaast/march2021

We will need to prop up industry due to the energy price rises and knock-on effects which will mean further unforseen borrowing.

Inflation is rising.

Our economy faces another rocky period, after that which we've already gone through.

Where will the money come from?
There is the NI rise - when will that be available to fund the care sector?

Council tax? Will households be able to afford it, with housing so expensive at the point of historically rock bottom interest rates at the current time - the Bank if England will be under increasing pressure.
The cost of living is set to increase.

What will happen to the jobs market if industries are already under pressure due to economic viability. Perhaps Rishi will save the day.

The Gvmnt may not see a hike in CT to fund SC, on top of the NI rise, a popular move with the electorate.

The idea of bringing in some form of National Service to force people into care work is horrific. The last thing you want is for the most vulnerable people to be cared for by people who really don't want to be there.

The lack of basic understanding in the general popoulation in respect of economics, and modern supply chains, is why the refendum vote was such an act of absolute folly.

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