Brexit Megathread - Part 1 because it's not over by a long shot

[vera99]

Started a new thread for all things Brexity as the last generic dumping ground reached its 1000 post limit. As this developing shitshow unfolds it's going to be important to share and unload. Clav of course will punt a contrarian view along with unrepentant 'taking back control' so-called Brexiteers. I look forward to seeing the benefits.

Interesting thread about post-Brexit trade deals by a well-informed source (legal adviser to the Lords European Affairs Committee)

twitter.com/AlexanderHorne1/status/1440943339155636224

TL;DR: the officials at the Department of International Trade managed to keep existing provisions in most rollover deals, which wasn't a given. However, selling that as a win is ridiculous. Also many deals will expire soon.

Fail to plan, plan to fail the mantra known by every sixth form business studies student. Should be fail to plan spectacularly, plan to fail spectacularly.

What I want to know is - how the hell do we get out of this mess?

My only hope is that Labour will team up with LD’s and Greens and form some sort of cross party alliance. That, coupled with this government fubar-Ing the country might make people vote against them in sufficient numbers. Highly unlikely though given KS and his latest self absorbed essay.

Reported in the Guradian that Johnson has authorised adding HGV drivers to the at risk group so allowing EU drivers to come back - not sure how many will

Guardian obviously

Got back from the shops, queues everywhere for petrol.

Never had we needed a broad coalition more than now. Reminiscenting wistfully about the LibCon pre-Brexit days more than ever.

Down to a range of only 170 miles' worth of petrol in the car: dh, who is much heavier on the gas than me, has done most of the driving recently . I get much better petrol consumption

@pointythings

LouiseCollins28 and would you care to hazard a guess as to what % of that 4.6% are disabled, chronically ill, carers for children or elderly people and so unable to engage in working life? Reality isn't as simple as yo make out.

Pointy, I think can do better than guess. The "employment rate" for all working aged people is 75% according to this...

www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes

I don't know but I'm thinking that probably is the proportion working of the whole 18-64 pop, including all those disabled, ill, carers etc as you state.

The 4.6% ish figure is presumably then the proportion of those who could work, who are currently not in work.

www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/employmentintheuk/july2021

Some people clearly don't work because of the various reasons you cite. Some don't because they don't need to (I guess) some because they choose not to for whatever reason. It isn't simple, people's lives aren't, never suggested it was.

@grannycake

Reported in the Guradian that Johnson has authorised adding HGV drivers to the at risk group so allowing EU drivers to come back - not sure how many will

Reported in the FT as well

Jim Pickard @PickardJE
new splash on @ft website:

Boris Johnson has given the go-ahead to ministers to relax UK immigration rules to allow more foreign truck drivers into the country to ease shortages at petrol stations and wider economic disruption

Brexit was built upon two fundamental assumptions:

1. We didn't need foreign EU workers.
2. We could get a better deal than the one we had.

Both assumptions have been shown to be disastrously wrong. But until the government, opposition & media admit that nothing will change.

Can I ask, Will relaxing the immigration rules completely resolve the situation?

Surely the U.K.-EU HGV runs with multiple trips will be hampered by border issues?

So while EU drivers would be able to come in, would they be able to transport goods along the way?

(I’m not doom mongering but have wondered if supply issue is bigger than the drivers)

It's all well and good relaxing the rules to allow in drivers, but it's not like they're going to come in the next few days, or couple of weeks even. If they decide to come at all...? Horse. Door. Bolted. Stable.

Also re relaxing the visa rules first the UK govt says "This isn't just a British problem - Europe hasn't got any truck drivers either" but now says
"Let's solve it by giving visas to the European truck drivers Europe hasn't got". Looks like Boris wants to save Christmas again.

A little late but maybe it’s time to move on from the Westminstenders name as it was so informed and driven by @RedToothBrush’s cogent, insightful and comprehensive initial summaries. I quite like the Megathread idea - it already feels lively and pertinent, and it seems we’re moving into a very different phase now with even committed Leavers beginning to question the benefits of their actions.

I think its not about parliament anymore but merely 'fallout' from decisions embarked upon by the Brexit we are signed up to.

Its certainly less about politicians as such now.

I have to say that ironically, I do think its good that the fragility of our supply chains are being seen now. Its something that would come to a crunch at some point in the future anyway.

The problem is more that these issues were largely forseen and planning for that hasn't been in place.

But yes, stuff like having multiple sources for crucial items such as CO2 within the UK would be prudent.

But yes, certainly the cost of living is going to go made. It was estimated as needing to rise 20% being outside the single market and customs union. With Covid, I think its easily going to top that. Which ain't going to be pretty

.

Its certainly less about politicians as such now.

I can't fully agree, although would qualify this by saying it is more about an incompetent, arrogant Government now. Many of the problems were anticipated and could have been planned for. I don't know how many times we said on these threads that the Road Haulage Association anticipated problems.

So Johnson now might put HGV drivers on the shortage list - good luck with that.

.

Personally, I think that it is even more about politicians, as the cockwombles throttlebottoms in power are responsible for the clusterfuck that we're all having to endure It's their decisions and choices and lack of planning that have put the UK in the position it is in

Throttlebottom ( coincidentally Susie Dent's word of the day) : an inept, bumbling and possibly embarrassing holder of public office

On PM just now - German logistics man explaining that they too have HGV driver shortages, but not food or fuel shortages.
So German companies are now sub-contracting to drivers from Eastern Europe.

More and more of this inability to see beyond the headlines by Brexshittiers.

"Great, drivers will earn better wages. Good old Brexit!"

"Why is everything more expensive?"

So, we're going to get temporary visas for HGV drivers.

I don't suppose anyone in government has given the remotes iota of thought as to how they're actually going to encourage them to come here?

If Brexshiteers really knew what they were voting for, they can have no objections to being called stupid...

It may be wishful thinking on my part but a large part of the Tory media Mail/Torygraph are piling on the criticism of the goverment. If Johnson could be persuaded to fuck off then some strategic backpedalling could probably occur and adult conversation could be had with EU rather than megaphone diplomacy.

There is hope re delivery drivers though mid-2022!

"Rod McKenzie of the Road Haulage Association says: “Action we take now may mean that the situation eases at some point in the middle of 2022, but we're certainly in big trouble here for some time."

“What we're focused on is delivering Christmas - that’s the big issue now. It's getting to the point really where any government intervention now probably is too late to avert that problem but every little bit of action will certainly help.”

www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/09/24/dont-blame-brexit-driver-shortages/