Brexit Megathread - Part 1 because it's not over by a long shot

[vera99]

Started a new thread for all things Brexity as the last generic dumping ground reached its 1000 post limit. As this developing shitshow unfolds it's going to be important to share and unload. Clav of course will punt a contrarian view along with unrepentant 'taking back control' so-called Brexiteers. I look forward to seeing the benefits.

I have almost no words

Boris Johnson does not rule out shortages at Christmas - but says it will be 'considerably better' than last year http://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-does-not-rule-out-shortages-at-christmas-but-says-it-will-be-considerably-better-than-last-year-12424853

Where to start ....

This country leads the world, actually, in logistics and supply chains. We've got very good supply chains. ....as long as they don't need HGV drivers

Meanwhile, one of his top ministers has said Mr Johnson cannot be blamed if there are shortages at Christmas.

....Liz Truss said: "I don't believe in a command and control economy, so I don't believe the Prime Minister is responsible for what's in the shops.
"This is why we have a free enterprise economy, I'm sure that the goods will be delivered into our shops." Total abdication of responsibility, along the lines of BJ's infamous "Fuck business" comment Laying the ground for it to be businesses fault if/when they experience problems

Fuckers, the lot of them They should be completely excoriated for this. This is self-inflicted and is down to the government's choices and decisions.

If they aren't responsible for keeping the country functioning, what's the point of them?

Really, the acid test of how successful Brexit is will be the queue of countries following the UKs lead out of the EU.

Maybe Clavpaste'n'over has some juicy quotes from French or German newspapers calling for Frexit, Deuschit, or Espanixit ?

No ? Thought not.

twitter.com/fascinatorfun/status/1444059246056939528?s=20

Rosie Holt on the current situation.

Headline in the Torygraph.

The Brexit-hating global elite is watching Britain's chaos with glee
Furious voters won't stand by if the Tory Government's incompetence turns us into a worldwide laughing stock.

I can't read it because it's behind the pay wall and I am not going to put a penny the way of the Torygraph. But if the 'Global Elite' hate Brexit then maybe it wasn't such a good idea. You would think global elites, being moneyed and liking tax havens would love it.

Or how about this from Raab's Constituency

He is, of course, rather past his sell by date.

The Brexit-hating global elite is watching Britain's chaos with glee

Brexit has probably advanced European unity in ways unseen since WW2.

Ironically.

For all their bertiebigbollocks stance, I can't see Hungary or Poland being particularly keen to experience life outside the EU now. Which may lead to some interesting internal politics there.

And the Tories know that being part of a bloc with other countries is the way to go, hence their running round the world trying to find ones which they can join.

I used to live in Raab's constituency, and though it's true blue it was solidly remain.

I don't believe in a command and control economy, so I don't believe the Prime Minister is responsible for what's in the shops.

Suggests she doesn’t understand either the economy or the functions of Government. Dear God. What a dimwit she is.

@wewereliars

I used to live in Raab's constituency, and though it's true blue it was solidly remain.

Not all of it, unfortunately. The bit I used to live in voted remain, but some of the areas like Walton and Hersham voted leave.

Yes, Esher was where I was thinking of, Walton seemed a long way away

@pointythings

If they aren't responsible for keeping the country functioning, what's the point of them?

One of the best questions ever in these threads

The problem is it's a question that slippery scum like Johnson can swerve and make the terminally dim feel better about their pig ignorance (strangely appropriate phrase) by ridiculing the questioner, rather than actually answering the fucking question

I know what I think government is for and should do. But does that coincide with what (a) my MP thinks, and (b) what the government itself thinks ?

I would humbly suggest the sole duty of government is to ensure the safety and security of it's citizens. Everything else flows from that single directive. It starts with securing us from foreign invasion and continues through food, shelter, water and health and education to ensure the next generation is safe and secure etc etc.

Obviously there is plenty of scope for debate as to how that is achieved.

If we take loathsome Liz' approach to it's damning conclusion, then in WW2 we'd have been told it was our responsibility to build air raid shelters - that's not what the government is there for.
.

This is a good thread by Lewis Goodall in response to Johnson being called out by Marr over ONS figures showing UK wages not keeping pace with inflation

twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1444649725282631687?s=21

Much to unpack here. Perhaps most striking is the extent of success of Conservative self-renewal in office means that the third Conservative Prime Minister in a row can tacitly criticise the economic model/performance of his own party over a decade and it barely causes a ripple.

Interesting article in Le Monde on "Polexit"
www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2021/10/02/en-pologne-le-spectre-du-polexit-anime-le-debat-public_6096815_3210.html

Basic gist: Polish gvmt wants more freedom from EU jurisdiction (pesky EU not letting them keep mines on the Czech border that don't comply with environmental law and not rolling over so that Polish law automatically takes precedence over EU law.) But they have openly stated that they don't want to leave the EU.
80% of the population in favour of remaining in the EU, though what that reflects is not clear (desire to be part of increasingly integrated union or awareness of benefits of EU subsidies).

To a certain extent you can still see the Cummings influence in govt planning (and I use the word planning incorrectly). Tear it down and rebuild how they would like it to be, insulated from most of the short term consequences unlike many of the population. If we are to emerge as a technology led, high wage economy, how does that square with not needing care home workers, HGV drivers, farm workers, etc, not just short term but long term too? If I could see a plan I could understand, if not agree with it, but to just say that's what the govt are aiming for is just words.

I can sense the anger and frustration exploding from many a poster here. You are obviously well read and educated and capable of critical thinking. I follow the thread avidly but this is my first post on it or others.

But realistically what will happen, how will it happen, and what mechanism will be used to row back now? UK has left, gone from EU, so what happens now? That kills me really. I don't think there is much that can be done apart from spin, lies and bluster . But logic tells me that if UK could or would join the EEA like Norway, that would provide all the trade benefits without being a member of the EU, but hold on EEA membership means free movement... ok scratch that!

If anyone can see into the future I'd love to know how you see this pan out. The disaster that is evident today, despite denials from Government, will still be there tomorrow won't they?

I am in ROI by the way and Brexit impacts us here (to a much lesser extent), mostly relating to the imports from Britain that we took for granted pre Brexit. The NI Protocol issue is a big concern also. The desire for a United Ireland is not our number one priority and is definitely not a certainty. The chasm between ROI and NI is huge in relation to traditions, society, polarisation of loyalists and nationalists, etc. and few want the hassle or the expense right now of having to work around such a tricky topic. Sorry for rambling on....

This thread topic is one of my absolute favourites on MN. I will watch with interest how it all unfolds. Truthfully there is schadenfreude on my part, but only towards those who were willingly led by donkeys.

That Lewis Goodall thread reflects some of what I've been shouting at the TV all weekend and before : "they" - the Westminster Fuckwits Government - complain about UK being a low wage, low productivity economy and that that was why we needed to leave the EU. There. Was. Nothing. Stopping. Us. Doing. That. While. We. Were. Members. And even if there had been and there wasn't there. Was. Nothing. Stopping. Us. Preparing. For. That. In. The. Five. Years. Since. The. Referendum.

Funny how other EU members' successes are built on decent wages and good productivity.

And breeeeeeeeaaathe

This is a funny thread about countries 'tipped to leave the EU' according to the Express

twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1444751105934700547?s=21

@tempchecked - I don't know the answer

I hope that this clusterfuck means that Scotland will achieve its independence - but that's not a given I hope that achieving independence and then rejoining the EU (or at the very least the Single Market) will show the "left behind" in FUKD/England that there is a better way.

But I'm not holding my breath .

I'll campaign for it - but ironically, the Unionists are using the damage done to the economy and the fact that Scotland is needing to be "more" subsidised because of the damage done to its exports as evidence why Scotland "can't go it alone" We, the Indy supporters, need to make the case that we can't afford not be part of the bigger (successful) "Union", where we would actually have a voice, rather than be dragged down by a failing (small) Union, dominated by a self-centred, cloth-eared, undemocratic, unrepresentative elite in London.

Lower down that excellent Lewis Goodall thread is a Tory MP (Chris Loder?) quoted as saying it was a good thing that our logistics chains break down because it means that the farmer can go back to selling milk in the village shop.

Oh my god. What century is this man living in? What breathtaking lack of economics / trade / supply chains is he happily displaying? Who are the people voting him in as their MP? The mind boggles.

They’ve royally screwed over business by stubbornly refusing to listen to industry bodies mr I’ve known about the problem with lorry drivers for a long long long time Johnson and now doing their damnedest to blame business. Must create all kinds of cognitive dissonance for Tory voting businessmen and women.

Must create all kinds of cognitive dissonance for Tory voting businessmen and women.

When someone tells you who they are - aka Mr "Fuck Business" Johnson - believe them

So in that respect, I'd say "hell mend them" to those Tory voting businessmen and women. Except that they're dragging us down to hell too

@tempchecked
There will be no rowing back, IMO.

It's too late now - the Tories are too enmeshed in the myths they peddled and their own utter incompetence. They purged the party of anyone with any intelligence or integrity and are making it up as they go along.

Once you have:

-a PM inventing statistics and lying on TV, then being called out on it but just carrying on regardless
-ministers claiming that there are systemic food shortages in Belgium when there was a strike by delivery drivers for one supermarket chain
-a government that blames its own population for fuel shortages, as though people were stockpiling petrol in their bathtubs or frittering it away by driving to Barnard Castle to test their eyesight

• Tory MPs like Chris Loder saying that it's a good thing the supply chain is being annihilated because then UK dairy farmers can sell their milk in the local corner shop

-this person heading up the Foreign Office at one of the most fraught periods ever for UK diplomacy

• no opposition party actually holding these lying charlatans to account in any meaningful way

it's hard to see where there might be scope for deviating from the trajectory the country is on.

Basic gist: Polish gvmt wants more freedom from EU jurisdiction (pesky EU not letting them keep mines on the Czech border that don't comply with environmental law and not rolling over so that Polish law automatically takes precedence over EU law.) But they have openly stated that they don't want to leave the EU.
80% of the population in favour of remaining in the EU, though what that reflects is not clear (desire to be part of increasingly integrated union or awareness of benefits of EU subsidies).

Imo, Poland is going to experience the sort of social/ identity upheaval that Ireland went through in the 1980s/early 90s, as the generation that saw off the USSR fades, and the ones born after the very conservative Soviet era attain power.

A redefinition of what it means to be Polish will occur. Identity crises can be overcome in a context of continuing prosperity, but there are forces at work online that can interfere very mischievously in the process. The general trend as seen in Ireland was toward liberal values, but the soft spots for Poland as in Ireland are reflexive nationalism and social conservatism, both of which can be exploited for political ends by external and internal forces. Ireland went through immense changes before the internet showed its subversive side.

The process of re-examining identity in current conditions won't be pretty. The danger is that in the short term the generational change will be resented as evidence of an elite trying to dominate the rest of society (as with the Polish Communist Party). However, there is high awareness in Poland of the benefits of freedom of movement and EU subsidies, both of which have been very important in Polish economic growth. Poland is also very strongly linked to the US by its immigrant cohort and thanks to geopolitical considerations of the US.