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As London continues to ignore Brexit deals, Brussels is preparing for the ultimate ultimatum
The umpteenth Brexit ultimatum expires on Thursday. The British refuse to properly carry out the agreed controls on the British flow of goods to Northern Ireland. Behind the scenes, the European Commission is preparing member states for tough sanctions to bring London into line.
Marc PeeperkornSeptember 29, 2021 , 15:10
The British flag can be removed on Thursday. Once again, London casually ignores an ultimatum from Brussels to honor the Brexit agreements. And again the EU is doing nothing. The European Commission is not blowing a ripple in the Channel.
British politicians will chuckle. The threatening ' pacta sunt servanda ' (a deal is a deal), which Commissioner Maros Sefcovic heard in June, has been silenced. 'Taking a breather' is what it is now called in Brussels. "Calm down the mood." At the same time, behind the scenes, the Commission is preparing the minds of the Member States to hit back hard at the end of this year: with import duties, banning British companies from the European market and excluding European research programs that the British love. "It is not our first choice, but the ultimate," said a concerned official.
First back to today: the day when the three-month grace period that the British asked in June is coming to an end. In those months, discussions were held about ways in which the now infamous Irish/Northern Irish protocol could be implemented. That protocol (45 pages) is part of the much broader Brexit agreement (177 pages) on the departure of the United Kingdom (including Northern Ireland) from the EU, but has developed into the inflamed appendix of that paper mass. Not incomprehensible, by the way, nor unexpected.
The British departure makes the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland (which is a member of the EU) an external European border that must be guarded. Border controls could endanger peace in Northern Ireland (enshrined in the Good Friday Agreement). That risk was known to the Brexiteers, but at the time they preferred not to talk about it. That would undermine the success of their campaign.
After the Brexit referendum, London still had to face reality. Everything was arranged for people, they can cross the border unhindered, but not for goods. After three years of negotiations, the protocol was ready, in fact the quadrature of uniting the circle around Northern Ireland peace (no controls on goods) with protection of the European market (controls, no 'gap' in the external border). In practical terms, this means that Northern Ireland partly adheres to EU rules, so that checks at the border with Ireland are unnecessary. The checks on the flow of goods from British products to Northern Ireland (for quality, safety, final destination) are carried out by the British in Great Britain or in Northern Irish ports.
Every word in the protocol has been weighted, every comma discussed. The Commission, the European Parliament, the British government (Prime Minister Boris Johnson) as well as the British Parliament signed it. Then the whining started.
sausage war
Nine months later, checks are still not being carried out or are insufficiently carried out, the EU still does not have the promised supervision of British customs officers, London unilaterally extends the transition periods (where everything stays as it is) and this summer British and French warboats floated in. The Channel to protect their fishermen.
There is the problem of fresh meat exports from Great Britain to Northern Ireland. The EU imposes strict requirements on all non-EU countries (including the United Kingdom) on the import of animal products for the sake of food safety and the prevention of animal diseases. London reared: for example, the Northern Irish were robbed of their fresh sausages, so there were no checks. British tabloids sniffed at the Great Sausage War.
There has been a lot of fuss over parcel checks to Northern Ireland, drug exports, pet quarantine rules and the amount of extra paperwork now that trade is no longer as smooth as it was before Brexit.
In July London released its famous Command Paper , the name speaks volumes. In it, the British government demands renegotiation of the protocol and otherwise threatens to unilaterally blow it up. According to Johnson and his Brexit negotiator David Frost, the protocol is a monstrosity that they only signed at the time to secure Brexit. Frost describes his EU colleague Sefcovic and his team as a bunch of rule fetishists. Practically, London wants much lighter or no controls and a trade flow with Northern Ireland as it was before their departure from the EU. Moreover, EU institutions such as the European Court are no longer allowed to interfere in anything.
On the EU side, the British demand rhetoric is met with a mixture of disbelief and pity. Doesn't Brexit mean Brexit, officials say, referring to the slogan with which former British Prime Minister Theresa May defended separation from the EU? Take back control (that other slogan of the Brexiteers) also implies: take back controls ? And doesn't the 'sovereignty' heralded by the Brexiteers include 'responsibility'?
The fact that Brussels is nevertheless refraining from legal action or trade clashes today has to do with the fact that Brexit is a thing of the past for the Member States. Except for Sefcovic, nobody cares about it anymore. In the Brussels Speech from the Throne of Commission President von der Leyen this month, the word Brexit no longer even appeared.
Not unimportant: despite the fact that the British do not comply with the agreements, there are as yet no indications that British products end up illegally on the Irish and European market via Northern Ireland. Brussels is going too far to start a trade war over some sausages and pets.
floppy knees
The Commission wants a 'permanent solution' to the disputes, not short-term arm wrestling. So in mid-October she will come up with new proposals to solve the problems with checks, forms and labeling without changing the protocol. The only UK demand that the Commission will never agree to is to remove the European Court's role as final arbiter on the correct application of EU laws. That is not only impossible under treaty law, but also politically impossible: it would prove Poland right in their attempt to inflate the primacy of EU law.
The Commission knows that it is counterproductive to announce a new ultimatum with a drum roll. London will sit back until the new date is in sight and then - hoping for limp knees at the EU - try to wrestle new concessions. So far that works. Exactly what the Member States did not want – the continual extension of transition periods – is now happening.
Partly for this reason, the Commission has started to privately inform the Member States about harsh sanctions if London still ignores the protocol at the end of this year. This does not only concern the usual lawsuits, but direct trade restrictions (import duties) as well as the denial of British requests to participate in research programs (funded by EU funds). Also on the sanctions list: restricting the freedom of British financial services providers to operate in the lucrative European market.
But does the Union have the political courage to push things to a head at the turn of the year? In any case, the Member States will then know what is at stake and what weapons they have at their disposal. "There can be no more surprises," said an EU official.