Brexit Megathread - Part 1 because it's not over by a long shot

[vera99]

Started a new thread for all things Brexity as the last generic dumping ground reached its 1000 post limit. As this developing shitshow unfolds it's going to be important to share and unload. Clav of course will punt a contrarian view along with unrepentant 'taking back control' so-called Brexiteers. I look forward to seeing the benefits.

Some fuel stations running out of petrol is not "market collapse" IMO. There is a huge failure of media management by the government, and a bigger failure by the media. Literally as soon as the government says "don't panic buy" what is the first thing people are going to do? Media have blown this way up and the result can be seen by all.

An HGV driver shortage is sortable, but not immediately sortable but the supply chains for fuel appear so weak that even a mild shock cannot be overcome and chaos ensues. Also saw a brilliant tweet of a train with maybe 60 container wagons behind with the caption
"1 driver", says it all.

If I built or sold electric cars I'd be all over this too. Never mind Kermit the frog, Boris should be out there today saying buy electric, now. Massive deals on electric vehicles until the end of the month...etc.

@prettybird

Tim Montgomery, a Tory, was making the same complaint last night on the Sky Press Preview: that the country needs a better opposition (and he did qualify that by saying, "And I'm a Conservative! ")

He did however then reduce his standing again with me when later on he said, of the shortages that the UK is experiencing, that the EU was experiencing the same difficulties Susie Bonafice managed to get the last word in (even though he was supposed to on that particular section) to say that No. They. Didn't. The fuel delivery problems and empty shelves are uniquely British. And on this occasion, I do mean "British" and not "UK-ish" as for some unfathomable reason, NI is ok

BCF has just emailed me the following:

Germany
NO reports here about shortages of anything - and any sniff of that would have been a massive election issue.

I've certainly not seen or heard of any shortages myself and my gym plus hotel gives me a good info network, locally at least.

HGV drivers
An issue across Europe, but EU / EEA members have nowhere near UK shortfall.

There is a wider pool of available drivers, including from EE countries and thousands more being trained.

RTB: Noting here the particular DVLA related problems that have been ongoing for the last 18months in the UK (strikes, staff shortages, massive covid outbreak - largely under reported)

Hence, no visible consequences here for consumers - so far, anyway.

Energy
Supplies in Germany as normal - fuel, power etc

Average electricity price in Germany this year €68 / MWh vs UK €180

(UK average may rise further)

Issue with gas is also storage, not just production / purchasing:

Germany has ~100 days of gas storage capacity whereas Uk has only ~10 days.

Again, that is a result of govt decisions going back many years

Thats just a few of the points made...

Our problems have definitely been amplified by poor long term strategic planning and poor contingency buffers to soften the blow of when crisis do occur.

We don't have the ability to respond in any way but reactionary, which allows a greater ripple effect rather than in a proactive way.

That is the big take home in terms of our handling of covid really. We have an inbuilt predetermined 'casualty number' before we can start to get to grips with a problem, whereas others put things in place to minimise this much earlier in the process of crisis management.

I don't think its restricted to covid.

In layman's terms, we have a much smaller government safety net. And to make matters worse, this idea that we should instead take on this responsibility ourselves is much more difficult because we have much higher levels of underlying poverty so fewer people have the capacity to take heed of the advice to 'look after yourself and plan for hardship'.

I think its only going to get worse and I think that will lead to much worse political and economic instability.

Its not caused by covid. Its not even caused by Brexit if I'm honest about it. It goes back much further, with Brexit being a symptom of it.

Poor strategic decision making and infrustructure investment is the crux of it and a conflict of interest between government and big business (which isn't unique to the Tories).

Boris should be out there today saying buy electric, now. Massive deals on electric vehicles until the end of the month...etc.

I’m not sure he can. I know 3 people waiting for new cars, ULEZ has pushed them into the decision. Admittedly non EV.

All 3 have delays, x2 due to global microchip shortage x1 the car is stuck in the EU.

Used cars prices have increased due to Covid/Ulez/Brexit issues apparently.

To be fair, the JIT philosophy - especially as applied in the UK - does make supply chains more vulnerable to shocks. It reduces stock and therefore costs, thereby either or both reducing prices and/or increasing profits. But it comes at a risk .

In other news, shortages can be exploited

@LouiseCollins28 - this is what a friend of mine, who has driven a string of electric cars for years (now a Skoda having got rid of a Tesla plagued with problems), posted up yesterday

Yes but how long until electricity is rationed?

@Dragon50

Boris should be out there today saying buy electric, now. Massive deals on electric vehicles until the end of the month...etc.

I’m not sure he can. I know 3 people waiting for new cars, ULEZ has pushed them into the decision. Admittedly non EV.

All 3 have delays, x2 due to global microchip shortage x1 the car is stuck in the EU.

Used cars prices have increased due to Covid/Ulez/Brexit issues apparently.

We bought a new car in May.

We didn't opt for an electric car due to a) where the market prices start b) the difficulty in getting a charging point installed at home.

A friend tried to get one through his work, but gave up because the installation company and the car lease company couldn't/wouldn't talk to each other and the installation company were so difficult to deal with. He gave up.

We have decided to wait until the industry sorts its shit out.

We bought a "new" 2nd hand car (

On the electric cars thing I know they are still hugely expensive!! Hence the suggestion of a big "deal/subsidy". Also I'm not sure how much charging infrastructure is out there to make switching really practical, however I'm confident that its significantly more than was there in 2012 (the last similar occurence) so its more realistic than it was.

My point was that this is the first of (probably) several periods of shortage of fuel where switching to electric is even vaguely possible for a significant number of people. If UK is going to meet its carbon targets then these are the sort of opportunities we should be encouraging car buyers to take. Dragon was talking about delays in getting an EV/ULEV, yes I'm sure there are!

Loving the "Beer shortage" signs prettybird

@LouiseCollins28 you said Johnson should be out today incentivising purchase of EV.

My point is that orders of gas vehicles are being delayed due to Covid and Brexit issues therefore it’s unlikely such an announcement would help in there here and now as people won’t get the new orders any time soon.

Then as RTB points out, there are further problems with supply.

I agree re with the incentives in general, but I think he’s not dealing with enough crises at present.

The real problem is that the entire economy is so fragile that a few random facebook posts about running out would be enough to cause collapse in that sector of retail.

Although I do note (as a few have) that despite the "shortages", most supermarkets have managed to secure plenty of tat for Halloween.

(I vaguely recall a Rhod Gilbert routine about how in times of real crisis people don't go shopping, although the gift shop on the Titanic was probably rammed).

I might - I very well might - just pop to a local supermarket tomorrow and make a really big scene about them being out of Christmas Crackers and see if I can start panic buying of them ....

Of course, if there is an EU-wide shortage of lorry drivers, then why aren't UK drivers going over there ?

I've found myself hiding way more threads than usual this week.
So grateful for the Westminstenders threads and this follow on. You keep me relatively sane in a mad world.
Thank you.
(A long pmk)

Just catching up with the new thread. Thanks for continuing.
In petrol news, my town was gridlocked most of the day and evening with people trying to buy fuel. Any usual time we wouldn't " need" to buy fuel. Nobody uses a car for work, the shops are walkable etc but as is Sod's law my husband and eldest are off on a 350 mile round trip today. So a silly o' clock this morning queue at our local Tesco ( the petrol stations were empty from yesterday)
Related to other shortages the local fb pages around here seem to have some comments

"... government spending our money on American company just so we can have fizzy drinks.."

".. buy your meat from a proper butcher, they don't use that crap" and of course the obligatory blaming the younger generation with the often touted youngsters today want it all type of comments.
Very few comments about Brexit and anybody who dares bring it up are shot down. Oh, nearly forgot the Boris is doing his best for us and imagine if Corbyn type comments.
Blooming bonkers!
Re the pub pic posted further up the thread- I know that pub used to pass by regularly

The lack of HGV drivers has been high-profile and high-impact as it affects so many people. I am grimly bracing myself for the slow-moving clusterfuck in social care.

The recent NI hike is barely a drop in the ocean. It does not cover existing need, let alone the predicted future increase.

When people don't get fuel, they are (mostly) just inconvenienced. When people don't get care, its much worse.

There's just no slack in the system and no forethought about the need for such slack. Whilst the Government is partly to blame, you see the same thing the private sector as well.

Why does our culture encourage this?

Oh yes local FB's are Brexit Central - I don't want to take the war there sadly as I might need it for more mundane and pertinent reasons. The amount of deflection and finger-pointing is sad to behold. I need a break have been posting on the HGV thread and Clav is irritating me with cut and pastery ...

vera99 Sat 25-Sep-21 15:54:38
Nice to see Clav's newfound respect for the working classes I'm sure she will be campaigning for higher taxes and a redistribution of wealth good Marxist that she isn't.

The issue here is good governance first and foremost. Johnson and the Tories stood on 'Get Brexit Done 'and went for what is nearly the hardest of Brexits. Any fool would realise that you don't smash delicate and complex structures without foresight and adequate planning at the very least.

But that is what they did and no amount of deflection and cut and pastery can hide that inconvenient truth.

This is your Brexit own it and the chaos that has ensued.

ABC My simple answer (and it probably isn't simple) in reality is
= "its cheaper". Its cheaper to do JIT delivery systems (presumably) than it is to store a large enough quantity of a product to make any other system of distribution workable.

People want to pay rock bottom prices for everything (and tbf lots of people have to because their money will only stretch so far) hence no slack in the systems.

Governments (understandably at one level) want to pay rock bottom prices for everything because they believe that the voters don't want to govt largesse with their money.

@LouiseCollins28 You forgot the 'maximise profits at all cost, and to the detriment of any sort of quality of product/service and employee pay & conditions’ mantra

This guy is very good and worth a listen. Popped up in my YT feed.

Boris Johnson is finished - and he knows it

"Boris Johnson led the Brexit campaign because he saw it as a way of advancing his own career. He expected the referendum to result in a vote to remain. Hence the look of shock on his and Michael Gove's faces the day after the referendum. But he saw an opportunity to become prime minister and pursued this. Since then it has become clear that he is incompetent, dishonest and a worldwide laughing stock. His incompetence has led the UK to a desperate place where prices are out of control, shortages of labour are seriously affecting many industries and there is no prospect of a return to prosperity for the UK.

The pandemic together with the sudden hike in gas prices have served to show how weak and vulnerable the UK economy is post Brexit.

The sudden increase of gas prices has gone to show how foolish it has been to allow foreign enterprises and states to buy up our utilities. Four of the big six power companies in the UK are owned by European governments and other funds, 71% of our water companies are foreign owned as are more than 70% of our railways.

During Johnson's ill-fated trip to New York and Washington it became clear that he is finished. He is now a loser and the whole world, and increasingly the British population can see this. He has defeat in his eyes and he realises it is all over. The time for jokes and wisecracks is over.

It is only a matter of time before backbench Tory MP's rebel and he will be soon gone."

New hour, new horror. Pharmacies are getting hit. Brexit reality.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/09/25/patients-face-delays-prescriptions-lorry-driver-shortage-hits/

Patients are facing delays to their prescriptions and shortages of over-the-counter drugs because of a lack of van drivers, and the problem is expected to get worse as winter drives up demand, pharmacists have warned.

Multiple pharmacies have told The Telegraph that orders are either arriving late or not at all, without any warning and that at least one major supplier of medications had to suspend deliveries for a week because of distribution problems.

The shortage of van drivers is being caused by a combination of factors, including the wider scarcity of labour in the economy, drivers having to self-isolate because of Covid-19 and a recent change in the rules on freelancing.

Martin Hewitson runs an independent pharmacy in Dorset and is a former board member of the National Pharmacy Association (NPA). He told The Telegraph: “It’s not happening every day, but once, twice, three times a week we’re having disruption to wholesale deliveries. Medicines which we were expecting end up not arriving, often with no explanation.”

Following my own idea, it would be trivial (if indeed needed at all) for the EU to allow UK lorry drivers into the EU to solve their crisis. Maybe not cricket, but all's fair in love and war.

Conveniently my employers range of businesses also covers a pharmacy and care services.

Maybe we can send some of our surplus fuel to help them cope with EU crippling fuel crises whilst we're at it !

Article about rising costs and supply chain issues at the wholesale food market in Manchester

(No beer shortages here. I harvested our hops this week and we brewed Wednesday. Will be ready in two weeks.)