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Brexit

Brexit Megathread - Part 1 because it's not over by a long shot

999 replies

vera99 · 22/09/2021 19:41

Started a new thread for all things Brexity as the last generic dumping ground reached its 1000 post limit. As this developing shitshow unfolds it's going to be important to share and unload. Clav of course will punt a contrarian view along with unrepentant 'taking back control' so-called Brexiteers. I look forward to seeing the benefits.

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ICouldHaveCheckedFirst · 25/09/2021 09:41

[quote DGRossetti]He who can read other than English laughs longest ...

www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/brexit-eu-europe-newspapers-uk-shortages-292005/[/quote]
Alex Taylor on Twitter sums it up perfectly:

"Brexit apocalypse" "Brexit chaos" "Brexit collapse"

Front pages throughout Europe calling out UK shortages for what they are, precisely because they're not happening in the EU ..."

But then maybe Grabt Shapps can't even read English never mind any foreign language

ICouldHaveCheckedFirst · 25/09/2021 09:42

*Grant even spelling fail

Peregrina · 25/09/2021 09:43

I suppose if I was minded and charitable a thread talking about the reasons leave won and how in the left-behind areas of mostly England a mostly working-class militant tendency saw the vote as a chance to express their pain and rage at their declining fortunes.

But how can anyone be charitable about those smug Tories of the South East, who are not left -behind in anyone's terms? E.g people like Leasdom (remember her?), Raab, or although he represents the South West, Rees-Mogg. Johnson is not a natural leaver, as soon as he sees the tide turning, he will duly change his tune. Waffle, piffle, waffle, I never supported a hard Brexit, it's what the public want, piffle,spaffle, piffle.

There are left behind areas in the South East e.g in parts of Oxford but they don't vote Tory.

Peregrina · 25/09/2021 09:49

Grabt Schapps - a Freudian typo? Because that is what Johnson's Government is happily doing, grabbing from ordinary people. The ones who 'are 'hard working' who will be courted at the next election.

Note I am not denigrating people who do work hard, because I believe that the majority want to do a decent day's work.

vera99 · 25/09/2021 09:52

Ah yes, the smug Tories who lapped up Torygraph scribbler's Johnson'sdecades-long lies and so-called humour around English exceptionalism and EU perfidy. I have no charity whatsoever for them.

How we laughed, well we're not laughing now.

inews.co.uk/news/uk/times-boris-johnson-flat-lied-130475

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Clavinova · 25/09/2021 10:00

Here's a petition that will no doubt wind up Comical Clavi...

I found the link quite amusing actually - the petition was created by someone called "Oliver Romain^ (real name). Smile

He didn't sound very happy yesterday;

^I have worked tirelessly to promote my single market petition (16,000 signs) and now only have 2,500 signs for my rejoin the Eu referendum petition. I still have less than 2,000 followers. Give me one good reason why I shouldn’t ditch the # FPBE tag this #
followbackfriday^

A bit busy this morning although I can confirm that I very much enjoyed my day out on Thursday. Several thousand other visitors were clearly enjoying themselves as well - hot food counters and chilled cabinets were fully stocked with food, wine and sparkling water.

Peregrina · 25/09/2021 10:14

It's a pity they don't just dish out petrol coupons to be fair to people.

Remember the power shortages of the early 1970's? Many of you won't be old enough, but they dished out coupons then, which turned out not to be necessary. It was obvious from the style of the print that they had originally been printed for the Suez crisis. (When the US made it known to the UK and France that they didn't support them. France learnt the lesson, the UK didn't.)

vera99 · 25/09/2021 10:21

Thanks, Clav signed much good will it do. I'm a FPBE tagger as well. Well done on the petrol shitshow - ambulances are now waiting to get fuel - you might need one if you choke on your discounted English oyster which the pluck oystermen can't sell in the EU anymore.

"Paul Kelley is one of the biggest turkey suppliers in Britain. He says that we are about to face a major shortage of turkeys this Christmas, and places the blame squarely on Brexit.

He's furious because he says that whenever he has given one of the countless interviews about the problems in the supply chain, problems with labour or with the CO2 he needs to safely package his product, the media have cut out all the references he's made to Brexit."

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RedToothBrush · 25/09/2021 10:49

@Peregrina

It's a pity they don't just dish out petrol coupons to be fair to people.

Remember the power shortages of the early 1970's? Many of you won't be old enough, but they dished out coupons then, which turned out not to be necessary. It was obvious from the style of the print that they had originally been printed for the Suez crisis. (When the US made it known to the UK and France that they didn't support them. France learnt the lesson, the UK didn't.)

What strikes me about this weekend is the lack of civil contigency planning in place.

We KNOW how fragile the fuel supply chain is and how quickly it can force the country to grind to a halt.

And this has still happened for the second time in less than 10 years. We know that fuel depots are targets for terrorism, strikes and protests.

This isn't a crisis thats unforeseeable - precisely because its happened before.

The 2012 crisis was also a supply chain shock issue rather than an actual shortage. We know that Brexit and Covid increased the chances of multiple supply chain shocks occurring. EVERY political persuasion and opinion within the major parties has now admitted this, even if its begrudgingly.

The media is being blamed for this, but the Petrol Retailers Association was actively saying for people to not go below 1/4 tank to avoid getting caught out - and thats the general advice the rest of the time too and many people ignore this. That is obviously going to have an impact.

People need petrol. Yes lot more people can work from home, but they still need to get kids to school and many need to arrange working from home with their employer before they do it.

I'd also argue that with so many having been working from home, delivery schedules have been significantly reduced over the last year, so refill schedules for petrol stations will have been cut back heavily because of decreased demand and that is only just being increased now as people go back to work (arguably this is why BP were struggling in the first place because they cut back on drivers during the pandemic and have been unable to recruit staff they need when demand has increased again).

So why wasn't this increase in demand as normality returned, on the government radar?? Why weren't concerns from business taken seriously earlier? Why weren't fuel issues put at the front of priorities? Clearly, its got ignored / over looked in the fuss about food.

Part of the reason for the quick supply chain shock, is people having experienced this before in recent memory. They KNOW the impact and don't want to get caught out. Its an entirely predictable reaction.

I have to say even if this is resolved very quickly (though petrol stations are suggesting that they aren't expecting their next delivery for up to 9 days), what exactly are the government going to do to stop the next petrol pump run??? Or will it be forgotten immediately as we lurch into the next crisis.

Cos there will be a third - simply because we know there is such a fragility there. And the reality of this year and probably at least the next few, is the government isn't doing anymore than crisis management which neglects other issues until they become the next crisis. We are now into a cycle of crisis after crisis due to lack of ability to cope with anything more - without the previous crisis truly having been fully resolved.

Its government by spinning plates. Thats the thing I find scary, and I think thats the thing that makes me wonder whether we need to seriously consider how we 'prep' on a long term rolling basis rather than merely for crunch dates as some have over the last couple of years. Its that sense of the inability of government to actively govern.

Arguably we are teetering into the start of a failed state scenario.

vera99 · 25/09/2021 10:59

Redtoothbush - very well put +1. The British civil service is one of the best in the world, full of great minds, evidence-based policymaking, consultation with a wide range of stakeholders government and business. A place where stuff got done and done well and the world and their oyster wanted to be there. Ideological Brexit has smashed it up royally.

And then Tory internal strife Farage making troubled hay and Johnson looking for an advantage to be King of the World. And here we are, chaos reigns. I had no idea we were that fragile and enough folk are stupid enough to let it happen. Make no mistake Johnson more than anyone owns this right down to the bottom of his dark and impenetrable heart. We are currently the sick man of Europe.

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Peregrina · 25/09/2021 11:03

On the thread which got pulled, I think someone tried to blame businesses not the Government for not making contingency plans. While there is an element of truth in this it made we wonder what the purpose of a Government is? With Johnson it seems to be 'how to enrich my mates at the taxpayers expense.'

There is an element of businesses not planning - I can well believe as Red says that BP cut back on staff. It's not like mothballing a piece of equipment which is not being used, although even that might need maintenance. Surprise, surprise, people laid off still have to put food on the table and keep a roof over their heads and so they went and found other work.

vera99 · 25/09/2021 11:08

Apparently, it's all Labour's fault, you really couldn't make this stuff up but they do !

www.express.co.uk/comment/columnists/patrick-o-flynn/1496368/brexit-news-gas-shortage-hgv-drivers-supply-chain-issues

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RedToothBrush · 25/09/2021 11:16

DH used to take the piss out of me making sure we were fully stocked at home. Now he is firmly on board. We shop very differently to how we did a few years ago. We buy in bulk more. We buy certain things whenever we see them, if we've been looking for them for a while. I won't just buy 2 bottles of coke at a time now. I will buy 6 or 7 a time for a few weeks.

We know that changes in buying habits add to supply chain shock. But changes in habit also are a response to supply chain shock. The point is you have to prevent and reduce the chances of supply chain shock and you have to have consumer confidence in the supply chain.

What we are currently seeing is a breakdown in that.

If I see any report of a potential incoming problem now, I do confess that I'm responding to that, because I know that the shit is going to hit the fan on it in 3 or 4 weeks. The industry is warning about incoming problems to the public via the press, precisely because the government who would normally listen to such concerns and would respond appropriately in good time have stopped doing this.

That was the endless conversations between businesses and government. Business warned they didn't have the ability and capacity to make fast responses and couldn't do long term planning because government were failing to give adequate time for them to do this.

The whole point is a destabilisation of markets and market uncertainity. You can't plan production schedules, if you don't know if/when your deliveries are going to turn up. You can't plan your purchasing/pricing if you don't know what you costs of fuel and goods are going to be in advance.

The Brexit we've got - the NI protocol being the most obvious example - doesnt resolve this. We are still rolling over on issues because we can't find long term solutions / agreements with the EU. That can't carry on indefinitely, and without resolution we face more (and bigger) incoming supply chain shocks.

I personally think that some of these issues of long and fragile supply chains are a concern regardless of Brexit and we should be looking closer to home for political and economic reasons and the security this provides us. We do need wholesale reform and restructing but that should be in addition to sorting out the Brexit mess. Climate change will bring these things anyway. We need to build long term resilance into our economy and how it works.

But that requires people to understand how the economic works and is interconnected and thats the biggest problem. Its bloody obvious just how few people have the first fucking clue about logistics and logistic planning.

vera99 · 25/09/2021 11:18

In the second rate EU here's a French truck stop with clean toilets and cheap/free showers and parking and then there's 'Welcome Break'. I think Johnson will find his u-turn visa being a big 'non'.

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Peregrina · 25/09/2021 11:22

I avoid Express links. Only a couple of days ago they were bigging up how the UK might try to join the US/Canada/Mexico trade agreement. Not reporting how Johnson had failed to get his trade deal with the US - which he is now trying to claim that he never thought would be easy.

RedToothBrush · 25/09/2021 11:22

@Peregrina

On the thread which got pulled, I think someone tried to blame businesses not the Government for not making contingency plans. While there is an element of truth in this it made we wonder what the purpose of a Government is? With Johnson it seems to be 'how to enrich my mates at the taxpayers expense.'

There is an element of businesses not planning - I can well believe as Red says that BP cut back on staff. It's not like mothballing a piece of equipment which is not being used, although even that might need maintenance. Surprise, surprise, people laid off still have to put food on the table and keep a roof over their heads and so they went and found other work.

Isn't the thing about neoliberalism that it puts everything on business and supply and demand and the government stay out of it.

Thats fine in periods of stability, but in periods of upheaval and significant change that goes completely to pot as you get widespread supply chain shock, market collaspes and the human costs of that in all its various forms.

The assumption is that this will resolve itself. As shocks get bigger, its argable thats not true and the cost becomes increasingly higher in human terms.

Thats the point at which you look to government to provide that security and to steady the ship, but that they have to have the ability and understanding of what is going on, and know points of weakness to be able to respond quickly and appropriately.

Brexit, if nothing else, highlights that lack of structural understanding of business by government.

Dragon50 · 25/09/2021 11:35

IIRC pre Brexit the businesses were screaming about potential issues and our dear leaders response was:

Fuck Business.

And here we are.

Amboseli · 25/09/2021 11:37

@RedToothBrush we do the same. Keep well stocked as a matter of course. Anything that will keep I try and buy a few months worth at least.

DrBlackbird · 25/09/2021 11:38

You can't plan production schedules, if you don't know if/when your deliveries are going to turn up. You can't plan your purchasing/pricing if you don't know what you costs of fuel and goods are going to be in advance

My friend in Zimbabwe says exactly the same thing about running a business in that country. Hmm

Not sure who, but some Tory politician on R4 heard saying a bit ago that ‘not every problem should be solved by government’ (to that effect) and went on to blame employment conditions for the lack of HGV drivers.

Oh the irony to hear the Tories criticising business for poor employment conditions. Maybe if unions were stronger they’d be able to advocate for workers? Oh wait. We’re talking about the unions that the Tories have systematically sought to undermine, hamstring, or dismantle for the past 4 decades because they distort a neoliberal free market.

It’s hard to keep up with the latest group to be blamed. All we know is that it’s definitely never the Tories or those that vote for them. Honestly, can’t Labour see there’s an opportunity here to become the party of good economic management rather than tripping over ideology and tying itself in knots over bloody flag waving.

ICouldHaveCheckedFirst · 25/09/2021 11:40

New thread on HGV driver shortage and its link to immigration here:

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/4358270-Brexit-is-not-the-reason-we-have-a-shortage-of-HGV-drivers

I posted a link to this thread.

DrBlackbird · 25/09/2021 11:55

…in periods of upheaval and significant change that goes completely to pot as you get widespread supply chain shock, market collaspes and the human costs of that in all its various forms

Another irony is if Marx’s assertion that capitalism will collapse in chaos of its own making comes true if our politicians’ non-solutions to crisis lead to more extensive and destructive ones. I’m not hopeful given that our current lot of journalist-politicians fail to grasp that markets require a coherent framework of rules and regulations to work well

prettybird · 25/09/2021 11:56

Pesky France and its good network of service stations and facilities for truck drivers.

Shame that it's not possible to do while a member of the EU......ConfusedHmmConfused

DrBlackbird · 25/09/2021 11:57

@ICouldHaveCheckedFirst

New thread on HGV driver shortage and its link to immigration here:

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/4358270-Brexit-is-not-the-reason-we-have-a-shortage-of-HGV-drivers

I posted a link to this thread.

Saw that thread and how the Brexiteers are rushing to comment and vent their sense of injustice at being blamed for the mess. More cognitive dissonance Wink
wewereliars · 25/09/2021 11:59

For me the Tories are beneath contempt, and always have been, but this lot are not tories. They are gangsters in suits.

BUT where are Labour, or any of the opposition parties? I do not understand the point of Keir Starmer at all.

Angela Rayner at Question time on Wednesday gave a hint of the passion, engagement and drive needed to start to bring this shower of shit to account. More please !

prettybird · 25/09/2021 12:12

Tim Montgomery, a Tory, was making the same complaint last night on the Sky Press Preview: that the country needs a better opposition (and he did qualify that by saying, "And I'm a Conservative! Shock")

He did however then reduce his standing again with me when later on he said, of the shortages that the UK is experiencing, that the EU was experiencing the same difficulties Hmm Susie Bonafice managed to get the last word in (even though he was supposed to on that particular section) to say that No. They. Didn't. The fuel delivery problems and empty shelves are uniquely British. Angry And on this occasion, I do mean "British" and not "UK-ish" as for some unfathomable Wink reason, NI is ok ConfusedShock

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