Westminstenders: Tachographs and Empty Shelves

[pointythings]

So Grant Shapps' solution to the shortage of lorry drivers is to allow them to drive longer hours.

Leading to more accidents and deaths on the UK's roads. But Brexit is Job Done and all is well - isn't it?

I notice a few really large markets missing from the CPTPP.

China for instance, and also the US.

On the question of the US opening to UK manufacturers, producers, and services, Truss has the following to say:
Ms Truss also hoped the United States would rejoin the partnership after leaving in 2017 to allow a US-UK trade deal to be brought forward.

She added to the Payne’s Politics podcast: “The United States was one of the initial parties in the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and the new administration has not indicated they want to join it.

"But who knows what might happen in the future.”

Negotiations have not yet concluded.
"...who knows what might happen in the future." Indeed...

Jam tomorrow

The Express article neglected to remind its readers that trade is a two way street, and clearly the implications of cheaply produced CPTPP goods flooding the UK market have been lost on @Clavinova.

It also neglected to mention that the EU has bilateral trade agreements with many of the CPTPP members, and there was therefore nothing stopping the UK from trading with them.

theconversation.com/the-uk-wants-to-join-a-pacific-trade-deal-why-that-might-not-be-a-risk-worth-taking-162900
This article explains matters far more thoroughly than the Express does, far less breathlessly and with far fewer pictures.

The net positive to the UK is increased ease of trade with Brunei and Malaysia. But again, it's a two way street. And also, the UK is a long, long way from Malaysia and Brunei.
...less than 8% of the UK’s exports go to CPTPP countries and that tiny Ireland has consistently been a more important market for UK companies than China

The downsides, briefly:
Some UK industries will be undercut thanks to access granted to cheaper producers.
Standards will be 'regional', meaning divergence from EU standards is likely. On top of access for cheaper producers, divergence of standards means companies focusing on the EU market will be threatened.
China is making noises about joining CPTPP - whoops! A case of 'move over Bubba' as China will dominate it and scupper any UK dreams of reliving the glory days of Empire, and lecturing China on human rights, Uighur genocide, Hong Kong, climate change, etc.

www.independent.co.uk/tv/news/michael-gove-raving-aberdeen-nightclun-vd2e31932

Whoa Nelly!

@Clavinova
Wrt economic growth:

However, the OECD also warns that the UK could suffer more longer-term economic damage than other G7 industrialised nations, with the impact of leaving the EU adding to the disruption of the pandemic.

The OECD examined how much potential output has been lost because of the coronavirus crisis, by comparing the latest projections for national income levels in 2025 with pre-pandemic forecasts.

It found that Japan, Canada and the US will only suffer limited scarring, with the US economy expected to be larger than previously forecast in four years’ time because of massive government stimulus...

...The OECD has also raised its forecast for the world economy this year, with widespread vaccination deployment allowing firms to reopen and the US president Joe Biden’s stimulus plans boosting global demand. It predicts global growth of 5.8% this year and 4.4% in 2022, up from 5.6% and 4.0% respectively back in March.

The US is forecast to grow by 6.9% this year, up from the 6.5% forecast in March, while eurozone growth has been upgraded to 4.3%, from 3.9%.
www.theguardian.com/business/2021/may/31/uk-growth-upgraded-but-oecd-warns-of-deepest-economic-scar-in-g7-brexit-covid-19

Without the economic stimulus policy of "Biden's USA" and EU recovery, the UK is sunk, in other words. Less sneering is in order on your part.

The whole spiel about the UK's "massive growth" rather neglects to point out that the capacity for growth is because of the spectacular hit that the UK economy has taken by relentlessly pressing on with Brexshit in spite of the EU holding out a blatant olive branch in the circumstances.

mathanxiety
This article explains matters far more thoroughly than the Express does, far less breathlessly and with far fewer pictures.

And no doubt written without any hint of bias from its Dutch and Irish authors - one of whom previously worked as an analyst for the European Commission (for 12 years) and now teaches in Toulouse.

And also, the UK is a long, long way from Malaysia and Brunei.

Less important for services and digital trade.

Why joining the CPTPP is a smart move for the UK
(bias the other way) -

The CPTPP is a big agreement. Its members account for 13 per cent of global GDP, 15 per cent of global trade, with a population of 500 million people located in the growing and increasingly rich Asia-Pacific region. It is also a high-level agreement that not only reduces trade tariffs for goods, but also sets new rules in areas such as services, investment, intellectual property, digital trade and state-owned enterprises. Totalling 30 chapters, it is based on commitments to very high levels of liberalization, inhibition of government interference and protection of business interests, making it a union well-suited for this century.

The CPTPP would enable the UK to secure higher-level agreements with its members and, where deemed beneficial, would replace the existing terms of bilateral trade agreements between the UK and its partners. This includes the new Japan-UK Comprehensive Economic Agreement (CEPA) and the six continuity agreements that, post-Brexit, extend the UK’s pre-existing EU trade commitments with Canada, Vietnam, Singapore, Mexico, Chile and Peru.

Thanks to CPTPP markets’ high level of openness – particularly unusual for its developing country members – UK industries will be able to demonstrate their strengths in sectors such as services and digital trade. They will also be able to build efficient supply chain networks, taking advantage of the varied economic structures of the members, such as levels of development, wage structures and resource endowment.

www.chathamhouse.org/2021/03/why-joining-cptpp-smart-move-uk

Less sneering is in order on your part

If I was sneering at Joe Biden you might be interested to know he's not getting very good press this side of the pond at the moment.

Signing off until Tuesday.

Please let it be Tuesday 2033...

@Clavinova

Totalling 30 chapters, it is based on commitments to very high levels of liberalization, inhibition of government interference and protection of business interests, making it a union well-suited for this century.

A neo-liberal wet dream in other words. Bad news for the average British worker, though. But they are the turkeys who voted for Christmas after all, so the massive shock at the destruction of their hopes, and the end of everything they value about life in Britain which they are about to experience is their own fault. The government delivers what the people want, and the people get the government they deserve.

Thanks to CPTPP markets’ high level of openness – particularly unusual for its developing country members – UK industries will be able to demonstrate their strengths in sectors such as services and digital trade. They will also be able to build efficient supply chain networks, taking advantage of the varied economic structures of the members, such as levels of development, wage structures and resource endowment. ...

Yes, the flushing sound the workers of Britain are about to hear is their jobs heading for the coast. Meanwhile, the peasants and wage slaves of the Pacific rim will be exploited to the advantage of the investment class of the Home Counties, so all is not completely lost.

It is also a high-level agreement that not only reduces trade tariffs for goods, but also sets new rules in areas such as services, investment, intellectual property, digital trade and state-owned enterprises.
All that waffle about digital trade and services, intellectual property, etc., is only good until China muscles in, after which all bets are off. And as long as China stays out, nobody's intellectual property is safe.

Thing is though, we were told that the return of roaming charges was 'Project Fear'. Now it turns out it's Project Reality'.

And May bragged about how her Government had abolished them. The best the Govt can do now is blame the mobile companies.....

If I was sneering at Joe Biden...

You were sneering at 'Biden's USA'.
You know, the superpower which recently exposed the UK's very junior position in global affairs, and still hasn't signed a trade deal with the UK, and has stated that jettisoning the GFA will have consequences, and isn't in the CPTPP, and whose economic stimulus is set to revive the world's economy...

Indeed. The kleptocratic government has already started the plebs electorate that they "repeatedly voted for this". I.e. it's not our fault we lied to you, it's your fault you believed us!

*telling

And also, the UK is a long, long way from Malaysia and Brunei.

Less important for services and digital trade.

Come off it Clavinova. You were singing the praises of Botham as a trade ambassador because of his knowledge of wine production. Which is neither a service nor digital, so isn't going to be much use in those two spheres.

@pointythings

DUP might be objecting hard to the protocol but recent opinion polls show they have lost a lot of support and support for a border poll is increasing

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.breakingnews.ie/amp/ireland/shock-poll-sees-support-for-dup-drop-to-13-with-party-now-behind-uup-and-tuv-1177075.html

And no doubt written without any hint of bias from its Dutch and Irish authors - one of whom previously worked as an analyst for the European Commission (for 12 years) and now teaches in Toulouse.
@Clavinova

Better that than a pair of journeyman hacks churning out bilge on the orders of the owners of the Express, whose current editor's career spans such shining examples of high journalistic standards as the News of the World, the Daily Mirror, and the Sunday People.

The paper's editorial stances have often been seen as aligned to the UK Independence Party (UKIP), Euroscepticism and other right-wing factions including the right wing of the Conservative Party.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daily_Express

Whatever floats your boat...

DUP might be objecting hard to the protocol but recent opinion polls show they have lost a lot of support and support for a border poll is increasing

Yes, hence meetings with the Loyalist paramilitary groups.

@mathanxiety

DUP might be objecting hard to the protocol but recent opinion polls show they have lost a lot of support and support for a border poll is increasing

Yes, hence meetings with the Loyalist paramilitary groups.

That’s very worrying - a threatened , worried & increasingly marginalised mix of loyalist & DUP fighting to prove they are relevant and still a force to hr listened to

CPTPP is fig leaf, uniquely every member is just about as far from the UK as it is possible to be The small print of the UK government’s analysis shows the deal is only set to increase GDP by 0.1% over the next 15 years Additionally any attempt to leverage different services in the digital space will risk EU adequacy.

Found on Best for Britain's Twitter (not sure how to link from their app - @bestforbritain

No irony form Matthew Lynn

yorkshirebylines.co.uk/brexit-its-all-barniers-fault/

TL;DR - apparently it's a dastardly European trick to use competent people when dealing with the UK.

apparently it's a dastardly European trick to use competent people when dealing with the UK.

If they are attempting to apportion blame then it's tantamount to admitting that Brexit has failed.

Two unfounded, but thought provoking rumours doing the rounds at pub o'clock ... one that Jeremy Clarkson is putting up some Afghan refugees to help run his farm for series 2 (literally back by popular demand). And the Taliban saying they don't trust the UK government to negotiate in good faith.

And the Taliban saying they don't trust the UK government to negotiate in good faith.

Well, they're not wrong.

@pointythings

And the Taliban saying they don't trust the UK government to negotiate in good faith.

Well, they're not wrong.

Currently, the Taliban are the US new best friends - which suggests the UK is not going to get a chance to queer the pitch.

Conversely, the US is probably the Talibans new best friend too - especially if the Taliban don't want ISIS-K (and who the fuck thought giving these numbnuts cereal brand names would help ?) popping up and out-Mullahing them at every turn.

This is all a bit "Gaul is mainly divided into 3 parts" for some. As the Bard said, there is nothing new under the sun.

And the Taliban saying they don't trust the UK government to negotiate in good faith.

Showing the Taliban seem to have more sense than Conservative voters, IMO.